Mcy56:
In my opinion, the market would have been on bull run this January if not for the coming election.

You are right. I observed that too.

Loco spotted viewing this thread

you dey always receive am hot from me here now just the way you like it dear lol how market

Mcy56:

Here we are, is it still hot?

Michael11stock:
you dey always receive am hot from me here now just the way you like it dear lol how market

Wetin you dey talk na? Oya dey carry your tea go, I no want again.
Market dey there jorr, see as everyone just dey observe.

Following my last post on the ACCESS/DIAMOND merger deal, I have received some mails requesting for more clarity on how best to KEY in/invest in both coys.
The best way to answer to that is to look at the possible discount to tap from(returns) before/pre and after/post merger.
In retrospect, the gap/difference between their current market prices(at any given point in time) to what they should actually sell for in relation to each other is the pre merger inherent discount, while that between the current market price to the effective allotment price(their face value considering the merger terms) is the post merger inherent discount.
With computing this, I shall also give a realistic view of 'what may likely be playing out behind the scenes' with respect to the merger/aquisation deal.

A quick math;

On the ACCESS side of the curve...
Effective allotment price of ACCESS= N7.45(this was calculated yesterday)
Current market price of ACCESS= N5.30(as at close of business yesterday)
Price a unit of ACCESS should sell relative to that of DIAMOND= N3.47 ...using the formula: [3.50 X (current market price of DIAMOND - 1)] and inputting DIAMONDS yesterday closure price of N1.99.
Therefore pre merger inherent discount= relative price - current market price= 3.47 - 5.30= -N1.83
The negative sign means that the discount is an approx 34.5% premium.
...the interpretation of this is that given the merger terms, u will be paying N1.83 more buying ACCESS right now when the price of DIAMOND is N1.99 !!
Post merger inherent discount= 7.45 - 5.30= N2.15

On the DIAMOND side of the curve...
Effective allotment price of DIAMOND = N2.13(merger valuation - cash consideration)
Current market price of DIAMOND= N1.99(as at close of business yesterday)
Price a unit of DIAMOND should sell relative to that of ACCESS= N2.51 ...using the formula: [(2/7 X current market price of ACCESS) + 1] and inputting ACCESS' yesterday closure price of N5.30.
Therefore pre merger inherent discount= relative price - current market price= 2.51 - 1.99= 0.52
Which is an approx 26% discount.
Again the interpretation of this is that given the merger terms, u will be paying 52k less buying DIAMOND right now
when the price of ACCESS is N5.30 !!

So pre merger, DIAMOND presents the opportunity of a discount to tap from(ROI), while ACCESS presents none than a premium.
ACCESS however presents some value gap to tap from post merger. ...which presently stands at N2.15(7.45 - 5.30), an approx 40% upside potential.

My inference:
It makes sense to believe that pre merger, ACCESS might experience more SELL pressure, while DIAMOND could maintain more BUY pressure. ...until of course there is an equilibrium on their price relation or if their merger face value is achieved.
This should give u an idea of what might be playing out behind the scenes with respect to this deal.
A game/ploy to depress the price of ACCESS while mopping up DIAMOND pre merger and then exchanging it with ACCESS at a cheap before coming back with full force to mop up ACCESS post merger might not be far from been true.
...particularly because the terms therein shows a mutually inclusive and directly proportional entities.

Conclusion:
Pre merger, Mr DIAMOND wins while Mr ACCESS is subdued, while post merger Sir ACCESS 'resurrects' !!
Those who know and understand know how they need to 'play their cards'.

CAVEAT: This analysis is strictly for informational purpose only. It should only serve as a guide to further ur investing strategy with both coys, and NOT a recommendation.
...due diligence still applies.

BullBearMkt:

...right price now is wait for Access market sentiment to change to bullish. For now it's bear everywhere, but is within a very strong support. Bears can also break the support. Let's wait for confirmation - it's looking really cheap

...seems the support at 5.30 is strong afterall

Michael11stock:
expect small bull tomorrow

I said this yesterday some people no believe me, access go do same dance like Diamond

Mcy56:

Wetin you dey talk na? Oya dey carry your tea go, I no want again.
Market dey there jorr, see as everyone just dey observe.

I don observe finish ooo I don enter in

onegentleguy:
Following my last post on the ACCESS/DIAMOND merger deal, I have received some mails requesting for more clarity on how best to KEY in/invest in both coys.
The best way to answer to that is to look at the possible discount to tap from(returns) before/pre and after/post merger.
In retrospect, the gap/difference between their current market prices(at any given point in time) to what they should actually sell for in relation to each other is the pre merger inherent discount, while that between the current market price to the effective allotment price(their face value considering the merger terms) is the post merger inherent discount.
With computing this, I shall also give a realistic view of 'what may likely be playing out behind the scenes' with respect to the merger/aquisation deal.

A quick math;

On the ACCESS side of the curve...
Effective allotment price of ACCESS= N7.45(this was calculated yesterday)
Current market price of ACCESS= N5.30(as at close of business yesterday)
Price a unit of ACCESS should sell relative to that of DIAMOND= N3.47 ...using the formula: [3.50 X (current market price of DIAMOND - 1)] and inputting DIAMONDS yesterday closure price of N1.99.
Therefore pre merger inherent discount= relative price - current market price= 3.47 - 5.30= -N1.83
The negative sign means that the discount is an approx 34.5% premium.
...the interpretation of this is that given the merger terms, u will be paying N1.83 more buying ACCESS right now when the price of DIAMOND is N1.99 !!
Post merger inherent discount= 7.45 - 5.30= N2.15

On the DIAMOND side of the curve...
Effective allotment price of DIAMOND = N2.13(merger valuation - cash consideration)
Current market price of DIAMOND= N1.99(as at close of business yesterday)
Price a unit of DIAMOND should sell relative to that of ACCESS= N2.51 ...using the formula: [(2/7 X current market price of ACCESS) + 1] and inputting ACCESS' yesterday closure price of N5.30.
Therefore pre merger inherent discount= relative price - current market price= 2.51 - 1.99= 0.52
Which is an approx 26% discount.
Again the interpretation of this is that given the merger terms, u will be paying 52k less buying DIAMOND right now
when the price of ACCESS is N5.30 !!

So pre merger, DIAMOND presents the opportunity of a discount to tap from(ROI), while ACCESS presents none than a premium.
ACCESS however presents some value gap to tap from post merger. ...which presently stands at N2.15(7.45 - 5.30), an approx 40% upside potential.

My inference:
It makes sense to believe that pre merger, ACCESS might experience more SELL pressure, while DIAMOND could maintain more BUY pressure. ...until of course there is an equilibrium on their price relation or if their merger face value is achieved.
This should give u an idea of what might be playing out behind the scenes with respect to this deal.
A game/ploy to depress the price of ACCESS while mopping up DIAMOND pre merger and then exchanging it with ACCESS at a cheap before coming back with full force to mop up ACCESS post merger might not be far from been true.
...particularly because the terms therein shows a mutually inclusive and directly proportional entities.

Conclusion:
Pre merger, Mr DIAMOND wins while Mr ACCESS is subdued, while post merger Sir ACCESS 'resurrects' !!
Those who know and understand know how they need to 'play their cards'.

CAVEAT: This analysis is strictly for informational purpose only. It should only serve as a guide to further ur investing strategy with both coys, and NOT a recommendation.
...due diligence still applies.

Abeg oga just one question. Can you give your opinion of the probability (in %) of the deal going through as planned?

austinkenneth:



Abeg oga just one question. Can you give your opinion of the probability (in %) of the deal going through as planned?

The answer is right there in the post.
Look at the pre merger and post merger possible inherent discount for both coys and draw up ur inference from there.
Note however that the estimates will change as their price changes with each market day.

Regards.

Jejebabaa:
At current price of Diamond of 1.90.
if you have 7000 units, you will get 2000 units of Access and extra 1 naira cash per unit of Diamond.
I hope this helps in RabbiDoracle way of explanation

Sorry to bring this up again.
Na now I just do the maths myself, dont mind me, you were right.
I was using 7D to 1A before, my eyes just dey clear now. Thanks.
Thanks to others who solved the riddle as well. Invariably DMD pays more than Access for now considering the current price.

Michael11stock:
I don observe finish ooo I don enter in

Okay then, all the best.
Transcorp seems determined to defeat the bear, observing..

New Investors Acquire 30% Stake in NEM Insurance
https://businesspost.ng/2019/01/11/new-investors-acquire-30-stake-in-nem-insurance/

Korea Offers to Develop Nigeria’s Derivatives Market
https://businesspost.ng/2019/01/11/korea-offers-to-develop-nigerias-derivatives-market/

Mcy56:

Wetin you dey talk na? Oya dey carry your tea go, I no want again.
Market dey there jorr, see as everyone just dey observe.

Bonanza transmission, transfusion, and trans - confusion everywhere, more opportunities in the days ahead as those in 4% principle will take their profit next week.
Before the 16 February, we should make sure we position ourselves in sound fundamental stocks, at least take front seat, and turn our mode to medium/ long term mode. Medium of 1/2 year and long term 3/4 years before the 2023 election.

Final year result 2019 which will come up between January/ March ending 2020 will double/triple anyone's money, who invested in any of the good stocks I mentioned earlier.
Good luck @ all

Chibuking81:

Bonanza transmission, transfusion, and trans - confusion everywhere, more opportunities in the days ahead as those in 4% principle will take their profit next week.
Before the 16 February, we should make sure we position ourselves in sound fundamental stocks, at least take front seat, and turn our mode to medium/ long term mode. Medium of 1/2 year and long term 3/4 years before the 2023 election.

Final year result 2019 which will come up between January/ March ending 2020 will double/triple anyone's money, who invested in any of the good stocks I mentioned earlier.
Good luck @ all

This ur bonanza stuff dey too funny. I bought all of my stocks(6 in number) before your so called bonanza period yet they are all (with exception of oando) on profit, with the least on over 15% profit.
I happy say I no follow the gang.

Mpeace:
This ur bonanza stuff dey too funny. I bought all of my stocks(6 in number) before your so called bonanza period yet they are all (with exception of oando) on profit, with the least on over 15% profit.
I happy say I no follow the gang.

Ecobank Not Under Investigation in Nigeria—Nedbank
https://businesspost.ng/2019/01/11/ecobank-not-under-investigation-in-nigeria-nedbank/

Mpeace:
This ur bonanza stuff dey too funny. I bought all of my stocks(6 in number) before your so called bonanza period yet they are all (with exception of oando) on profit, with the least on over 15% profit.
I happy say I no follow the gang.

Mpeace:
This ur bonanza stuff dey too funny. I bought all of my stocks(6 in number) before your so called bonanza period yet they are all (with exception of oando) on profit, with the least on over 15% profit.
I happy say I no follow the gang.

Lots of people shouting bonanza wont notice it when it is around.

OBAGADAFFI:
Lots of people shouting bonanza wont notice it when it is around.

We see what happens by Jan ending.

In another news, Nem was able to find support between 1.72 - 1.74.

OBAGADAFFI:


Lots of people shouting bonanza wont notice it when it is around.

It could come in different form but to me is when I sold 90k unit of zenith and bought 116k back with same money but I don't really know the ratio of what I got free but I know I got 26k free

Chibuking81:

Can't forsee any violence in the coming election cos both strong contenders are from the North, either way, the North wins.
Just hope there'll be peace from the SE by God's grace. Mpeace is tasked with the responsibility to ensuring peace reign there. Lol

aremso:



It could come in different form but to me is when I sold 90k unit of zenith and bought 116k back with same money but I don't really know the ratio of what I got free but I know I got 26k free

Man , you large gaan

Mcy56:

Can't forsee any violence in the coming election cos both strong contenders are from the North, either way, the North wins.
Just hope there'll be peace from the SE by God's grace. Mpeace is tasked with the responsibility to ensuring peace reign there. Lol

There'll be 100% peace in the SE. Why would there not be peace?

Mcy56:

Can't forsee any violence in the coming election cos both strong contenders are from the North, either way, the North wins.
Just hope there'll be peace from the SE by God's grace. Mpeace is tasked with the responsibility to ensuring peace reign there. Lol

No lefelendum no erection.

Any positive news from oando for the price keep droping daily Is 4.30 a good buy

austinkenneth:
There'll be 100% peace in the SE. Why would there not be peace?

I wouldn't know. Maybe because of Obi possibly. It's just an assumption anyway. I pray there'll be peaceful transition.

Mpeace:
No lefelendum no erection.

Redoil:
Any positive news from oando for the price keep droping daily Is 4.30 a good buy

You can start picking small small na.
Is your last prediction on it from reliable source or just guess work? You may be right at the end of the day you know.

Mcy56:

I wouldn't know. Maybe because of Obi possibly. It's just an assumption anyway. I pray there'll be peaceful transition.

Operation python dance 3 will begin very soon throughout Nigeria and it will end a couple of weeks after the election .
Anybody from any region that wants to try nonsense will smell pepper .

Alepa:
Operation python dance 3 will begin very soon throughout Nigeria and it will end a couple of weeks after the election .
Anybody from any region that wants to try nonsense will smell pepper .

Sshhhhhh! Stop saying bad thing. Let's be praying for peace to reign instead.