...my simple advise to forumites is to check their facts very well before jumping onto a train-wagon! Using VWAP calculations which was designed for intra-day, not even daily (designed specifically for 1 minute to 5 minutes maximum) for prototyping daily, weekly, monthly does not exist in trading.

The same "leading indicator" tool that was used to predict UACN reaching 16, when price was at 6, is now hovering around 4.5

valentinenwoko:
Good afternoon Mr BullBearMkt
Plus UAC has dropped price from 5.50 to 4.50.
I am waiting for 3.25 ( year peak price 9.75/3) before entry.
Plus your advice

...if you are planning long term investment, the stock price is cheaper than ever, you can start accumulating little by little & if you want to wait till 3.25, best of luck. For short term - stay clear now.

meshpips:
Me sef been think say na LAP, abi TAP. Too much book dey give bald head o!
Na only God go save person from all these kain people was metamorphose from "forest" trading into equities.

No be una dey calculate and drag my ogas into it?
You just concentrated on only GTB. What about those of us who are not GTB fans?
Anyway, those 'forest' people dey make their bale in millions steadily for this same market and still dey help others make money o, so make una give them their respect.

BullBearMkt:

...then if it's not VWAP don't let us call it VWAP. I wonder how "an average" value can provide you definite point for reversal. No wonder the rate of failure of academia professionals, trying to trade stocks, is high. Simple price action and/or Volume by Price could give you idea what you should expect price may do in the future.

Meshpip's much-touted volume adjusted price is just like the VWAP you know.

Look at it this way:

People buy stock A at different prices (high, low, close) and volumes

Let's say (P= Price and V=volume)

So over the course of a period (say 1 hour, 2 hours etc till a day), you see

P1...... V1
P2...... V2
P3....... V3
....
....
....
Till Pn..... Vn

So the VWAP = [Sum (P1V1 + P2V2 + P3V3 +....... +PnVn)] /Sum(V1 + V2 + V3 + Vn)

This computation will give you the Volume weighted Average Price which can be higher or lower than the closing price.

For his "almighty formula" , it involves you repeating this for the particular time frame you are monitoring. Instead oif doing per day, you sum today with the previous day and continue adding till you get the final cumulative value.

Divide this value with the cumulative volume for the period.

Remember each line of the day must have been a cumulative for the previous other ones. That way you be getting a price which he termed "volume adjusted"

Then for the entire period modelled, he will then use Bell curve to distribute it normally by finding the Mean price and the standard deviation.

There is nothing there! Just an academic exercise which has its limitations.

In a sharp and lasting bullish market, it just doesn't work. Example is Google. Will the price every revert to its mean?

Other limitation is the access to price data.

A company like FBN can easily revert to its mean because there are events that js making it lose value.

And I believe that was why he said UACN was a BUY because UACN had been having price RISE in the past and which automatically will make the Mean to be high. So as price dropped probably many standard deviation below the Mean, he thought it was a buy

FA know why.

So you can't use that in isolation in determining asset prices.

BBM, don't let me bore you with academic exercise.

I just wanted to prove to him that I no dey run for number crunching.

BullBearMkt:
Using VWAP calculations which was designed for intra-day , not even daily (designed specifically for 1 minute to 5 minutes maximum) for prototyping daily, weekly, monthly does not exist in trading.

Intraday! Just imagine!
How can someone like me bother myself with this kind of calculation?
You ogas tried and its educative anyway............for those who cares to know/learn how it works.

BullBearMkt:

...then if it's not VWAP don't let us call it VWAP. I wonder how "an average" value can provide you definite point for reversal. No wonder the rate of failure of academia professionals, trying to trade stocks, is high. Simple price action and/or Volume by Price could give you idea what you should expect price may do in the future.

Oga BBM,

Me nor dey use VWAP to determine exact reversal point o! Abeg nor come put weed for my pocket o!

Ever heard of the ENEMY called AVERAGE? Even a dull SS 1 maths student knows that you don't use measures of CENTRAL TENDENCY to determine extremum points. The correct thing to use is a measure of DISPERSION.

Kapish?

RabbiDoracle:


Meshpip's much-touted volume adjusted price is just like the VWAP you know.

Look at it this way:

People buy stock A at different prices (high, low, close) and volumes

Let's say (P= Price and V=volume)

So over the course of a period (say 1 hour, 2 hours etc till a day), you see

P1...... V1
P2...... V2
P3....... V3
....
....
....
Till Pn..... Vn

So the VWAP = [Sum (P1V1 + P2V2 + P3V3 +....... +PnVn)] /Sum(V1 + V2 + V3 + Vn)

This computation will give you the Volume weighted Average Price which can be higher or lower than the closing price.

For his "almighty formula" , it involves you repeating this for the particular time frame you are monitoring. Instead oif doing per day, you sum today with the previous day and continue adding till you get the final cumulative value.

Divide this value with the cumulative volume for the period.

Remember each line of the day must have been a cumulative for the previous other ones. That way you be getting a price which he termed "volume adjusted"

Then for the entire period modelled, he will then use Bell curve to distribute it normally by finding the Mean price and the standard deviation.

There is nothing there! Just an academic exercise which has its limitations.

In a sharp and lasting bullish market, it just doesn't work. Example is Google. Will the price every revert to its mean?

Other limitation is the access to price data.

A company like FBN can easily revert to its mean because there are events that js making it lose value.

And I believe that was why he said UACN was a BUY because UACN had been having price RISE in the past and which automatically will make the Mean to be high. So as price dropped probably many standard deviation below the Mean, he thought it was a buy

FA know why.

So you can't use that in isolation in determining asset prices.

BBM, don't let me bore you with academic exercise.

I just wanted to prove to him that I no dey run for number crunching.

This man here is almost becoming a "new convert "

Lol

BullBearMkt:
...my simple advise to forumites is to check their facts very well before jumping onto a train-wagon! Using VWAP calculations which was designed for intra-day, not even daily (designed specifically for 1 minute to 5 minutes maximum) for prototyping daily, weekly, monthly does not exist in trading.

The same "leading indicator" tool that was used to predict UACN reaching 16, when price was at 6, is now hovering around 4.5

Your head is there!!!

Do you know why his model flagged that?

UACN had been trading at high prices. So this will show that the Mean Price will tend towards that higher prices. But in his analysis, he will not consider current events in the company (Fundamental analysis).

So when you compare the current price to the historical Mean, he will have very sharp (negative) deviation away from the Mean and he will call it a BUY signal.

It is just an academic exercise.

Imagine what Diamond bank Mean Price will be in 2018 or Unity Bank sef?

RabbiDoracle:


Meshpip's much-touted volume adjusted price is just like the VWAP you know.

Look at it this way:

People buy stock A at different prices (high, low, close) and volumes

Let's say (P= Price and V=volume)

So over the course of a period (say 1 hour, 2 hours etc till a day), you see

P1...... V1
P2...... V2
P3....... V3
....
....
....
Till Pn..... Vn

So the VWAP = [Sum (P1V1 + P2V2 + P3V3 +....... +PnVn)] /Sum(V1 + V2 + V3 + Vn)

This computation will give you the Volume weighted Average Price which can be higher or lower than the closing price.

For his "almighty formula" , it involves you repeating this for the particular time frame you are monitoring. Instead oif doing per day, you sum today with the previous day and continue adding till you get the final cumulative value.

Divide this value with the cumulative volume for the period.

Remember each line of the day must have been a cumulative for the previous other ones. That way you be getting a price which he termed "volume adjusted"

Then for the entire period modelled, he will then use Bell curve to distribute it normally by finding the Mean price and the standard deviation.

There is nothing there! Just an academic exercise which has its limitations.

In a sharp and lasting bullish market, it just doesn't work. Example is Google. Will the price every revert to its mean?

Other limitation is the access to price data.

A company like FBN can easily revert to its mean because there are events that js making it lose value.

And I believe that was why he said UACN was a BUY because UACN had been having price RISE in the past and which automatically will make the Mean to be high. So as price dropped probably many standard deviation below the Mean, he thought it was a buy

FA know why.

So you can't use that in isolation in determining asset prices.

BBM, don't let me bore you with academic exercise.

I just wanted to prove to him that I no dey run for number crunching.

@RabbiDoracle, I see some flaws in your post, but I'm not interested in going further with this issue. Best of luck to anyone who is pursuing this.

BullBearMkt:
...my simple advise to forumites is to check their facts very well before jumping onto a train-wagon!

The same "leading indicator" tool that was used to predict UACN reaching 16, when price was at 6, is now hovering around 4.5

Bros, nor dey fall your hand like this na. You dey wear any optical organ enhancer? Spectacles or "goggles"?

Please go back to my post on UACN and check the time frame on which I did the analysis.

Check and confirm that it was YEARLY time frame I used. Then please come back to your post and correct that your misleading information.

Thank you.

meshpips:


This man here is almost becoming a "new convert "

Lol

You thought no one knows what you know.

You should know that what you are describing as your almighty modelling tool employed the basic of mathematics, yet we all studied engineering and excelled in the abstract maths and you think that people will not understand what you describe.

You majored in Fluid dynamics, most engineers here know everything you know. Dem just no get time to dey do academic work.

Na money we dey find.

BullBearMkt:

@RabbiDoracle, I see some flaws in your post, but I'm not interested in going further with this issue. Best of luck to anyone who is pursuing this.

Bros, I don't use VWAP or Price adjusted whatever. What I did was to demystify what Meshpip says he is the first to use.

If you get any stock that will give me 18% dividend yield after WHT, talk o.... That is the kind of news I chase.

meshpips:



Check and confirm that it was YEARLY time frame I used. Then please come back to your post and correct that your misleading information.

Thank you.

...my message really is - whatever tools you use is not DEFINITIVE and you should not run down others. Even yours is not perfect either

BullBearMkt:

...my message really is - whatever tools you use is not DEFINITIVE and you should not run down others. Even yours is not perfect either

Price target was 24 and not 16

Make I go drink abeg!

THE REWARD OF THE FRONT LINERS. WHO ARE THE FRONT LINERS? ...

https://www.nairaland.com/3560501/holineness-righteousness-revival-messages-bible/24#81368880

veecovee:
THE REWARD OF THE FRONT LINERS. WHO ARE THE FRONT LINERS? ...

https://www.nairaland.com/3560501/holineness-righteousness-revival-messages-bible/24#81368880

Na meshpips

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The reading makes my Sunday.

This week our ministers will be unveiled and naira is set to nosedive this week.
The money market will remain bullish
Bond market may go bearish
Stock market is certainly going to be bearish
Thank you

Àtá tí sàpà mí lórí o

Agbalowomeri:

Na meshpips

Am confused o,is this the same NSEMPA thread or further maths thread, abi which kind wahala be this,so person cannot come and buy UACN at 4.50,or zenith at 16.00 and sleep with peace of mind.Even gtb sef at 26 with 30k interim div,people still dey fear.

Chai,naija economy don make plenty good stock suffer o.

Trump called the CEOs of 3 Biggest. Banks in the US as stock market plunges
Hope we fit see this action from ur Presido


https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/08/16/trump-reportedly-held-call-with-major-bank-ceos-on-wednesday-as-the-stock-market-plunged.html?amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnbc.com%2F2019%2F08%2F16%2Ftrump-reportedly-held-call-with-major-bank-ceos-on-wednesday-as-the-stock-market-plunged.html

meshpips:
When a young lad is felling a tree, it is the elderly person that knows where the tree will land.

I dey wait una. Small by small una don dey reach the same page with me.

I will be patient with you guys. My people say person wey dey stammer sabi him papa name, just give am time, he go pronounce am fully.

I will be patient and wait. I understand as e dey do una.

Elder memphis abeg help us touchlight Union Diagnostics. Since their book is now clean should we keep waiting at 20kobo carpark or should we come up to 21kobo?

meshpips:


Bros, nor dey fall your hand like this na. You dey wear any optical organ enhancer? Spectacles or "goggles"?

Please go back to my post on UACN and check the time frame on which I did the analysis.

Check and confirm that it was YEARLY time frame I used. Then please come back to your post and correct that your misleading information.

Thank you.

Why the lies?

Even your pm to that guy went unanswered.

The simple question I always ask is how can you be analyzing what you don’t know?

Given that prices tend to move together on the NSE, how could you be giving a buy recommendation on some companies and a sell on others?

You don’t know what you’re doing. You called for the head of the most efficient company on the NSE, a major contributor to the ASI, and endorsed less efficient companies like UACN and access to be better.

You don’t know what you’re doing and you now laced that ignorance with seeking proprietary gains. You called for investors to scam, once you were found out, you went to pull the charts of Palladium in hindsight. You had also wanted to sell metastock subscription to someone here.

Seeking money is unheard of here, that is not what we set out to achieve here. You are just rambling in this free space with your vindictive tendencies that have done you great harm.

You want a call from me? Do I sound like someone that is seeking for validation or who to scam?

Chief pm sender, continue in your folly of seeking validation to scam folks.

Mcy56:
Who else did not understand a thing in this VAP or WAP discussion/calculation?

My Sister, i just activated my observation mode.

According to Agba..

Good FA will determine how to apply TA.

RabbiDoracle:


Meshpip's much-touted volume adjusted price is just like the VWAP you know.

Look at it this way:

People buy stock A at different prices (high, low, close) and volumes

Let's say (P= Price and V=volume)

So over the course of a period (say 1 hour, 2 hours etc till a day), you see

P1...... V1
P2...... V2
P3....... V3
....
....
....
Till Pn..... Vn

So the VWAP = [Sum (P1V1 + P2V2 + P3V3 +....... +PnVn)] /Sum(V1 + V2 + V3 + Vn)

This computation will give you the Volume weighted Average Price which can be higher or lower than the closing price.

For his "almighty formula" , it involves you repeating this for the particular time frame you are monitoring. Instead oif doing per day, you sum today with the previous day and continue adding till you get the final cumulative value.

Divide this value with the cumulative volume for the period.

Remember each line of the day must have been a cumulative for the previous other ones. That way you be getting a price which he termed "volume adjusted"

Then for the entire period modelled, he will then use Bell curve to distribute it normally by finding the Mean price and the standard deviation.

There is nothing there! Just an academic exercise which has its limitations.

In a sharp and lasting bullish market, it just doesn't work. Example is Google. Will the price every revert to its mean?

Other limitation is the access to price data.

A company like FBN can easily revert to its mean because there are events that js making it lose value.

And I believe that was why he said UACN was a BUY because UACN had been having price RISE in the past and which automatically will make the Mean to be high. So as price dropped probably many standard deviation below the Mean, he thought it was a buy

FA know why.

So you can't use that in isolation in determining asset prices.

BBM, don't let me bore you with academic exercise.

I just wanted to prove to him that I no dey run for number crunching.

I trust you �.

But the market no send number crunching o.

The market is very irrational.

Valueinvestor:
Am confused o,is this the same NSEMPA thread or further maths thread, abi which kind wahala be this,so person cannot come and buy UACN at 4.50,or zenith at 16.0[/b]0 and sleep with peace of mind[b].Even gtb sef at 26 with 30k interim div,people still dey fear.

Chai,naija economy don make plenty good stock suffer o.

Academic exercise no be success o .

@RabbiDOracle, thanks for your efforts. Its sacrificial of you to have gone to those lengths. I was getting concerned that some persons were beginning to take a price call of a marketing strategy seriously because of a general bearish trend.

chillykelly86:
@RabbiDOracle, thanks for your efforts. Its sacrificial of you to have gone to those lengths. I was getting concerned that some persons were beginning to take a price call of a marketing strategy seriously because of a general bearish trend.

ok

Mcy56:
Who else did not understand a thing in this VAP or WAP discussion/calculation?

As long as no be LAPLACE Transform, my hands no dey oohh

Mcy56:
Who else did not understand a thing in this VAP or WAP discussion/calculation?

See wetin Bear dey cause..my eyes dey � dizzy..dey wobble as i dey read all these discussions on
WAP or wapco dem call am
I beg Oga Rabbi onifa just ignore ..cos most of us no understand all these terms
VWAP..velocity..weight..Acceleration..Pressure.. ..

Since i join this forum i neva hear all these b4 ..BULL i beg come back