₦airaland Forum

Every source of investment income seem to be bearish at the moment even sports betting.
Yesterday was not funny at all.

Mpeace:
Every source of investment income seem to be bearish at the moment even sports betting.
Yesterday was not funny at all.

@ Mpeace... Lol.
Investing loan in an uncertain and bearish market would be worst than loosing money in baba ijebu venture.
From my permutation... An imaginary investment of N5M in zenith on 02/09/19 would be in deficit by +/- 15% by December 2019.
The bearish sentiment was just uncontrollable.
Where is the stimulus that will welcome the bull?
Maybe Mpeace would bring it, Same-way she did it in diamond Bank... Lol

... AND PASS ...

https://www.nairaland.com/3560501/holineness-righteousness-revival-messages-bible/24#81796166

Godlylifeoneart:
IS IT WORTH GETTING A LOAN TO INVEST IN EQUITY?

RECENTLY THE MASS MEDIA HAS BEEN FLOODED WITH OFFER OF LOANS BY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS.
A FRIEND WAS CAUGHT BY GT BANK ADVERT OF NON COLLATERISED LOAN OF N5 MILLION.HE IS DETERMINED TO GET THE LOAN WITH UTMOST AIM OF INVESTING IT IN EQUITIES.
I HOPE THE HOUSE CAN SCRUTINIZE THIS MOVE AND POSSIBLY GIVE OUR DIVERGENT VIEWS,
We should consider the fact that investing is a marathon and not a sprint which is the order in Trading.

His view, if he can afford the monthly repayments, is it worthy taking out a personal loan of N5, 000,000 to invest in EQUITIES, NOW THAT THE INDEX IS DEPRESSED. His thinking is that the big lump sum investment will allow compounding to work its magic all the faster when the bull returns. – more so than (much) smaller monthly INVESTMENT over time.

My view , a preferable strategy would be to invest a monthly amount into a diversified portfolio.
Judging from unpredictability of NSE and other global bourses during this Donald Trump Era. Precisely, no one has a crystal ball to tell us what the market will do next week
Obtaining loan with no collateral at 17% to 21% interest rate is not advisable judging from the bourse that has returned - 12% YTD at the close of market on 30th August 2019.
The TB and return on bond hover @ 13.5% to 15%.
MMF is lesser. This is excluding inflation rates gazetted by the FGN @11 to 12%.in order word, The absolute yield on TB - inflation is 3 to 4%.
The cost of borrowing money in the form of a personal loan is likely to be higher than the long-term returns one can expect to achieve from investment markets.

Expected returns from the NSE are approximately +/5%, @inflation plus11%. Therefore, with inflation currently at 11%, we can expect the market to provide a total return of around 5% per year over the long term.This is the best case scenario. Just my permutations.

As interest rates on personal loans generally start at 17% per year, it does not make sense to borrow money in order to invest.

Rather than borrowing a lump sum to invest in the markets and servicing debt on a monthly basis, a preferable solution would be to invest a monthly amount into a diversified portfolio with mix of fundamentally sound and dividends paying equities,
TB, Bonds and Forex edging. Coz no one can predict the direction of Nigeria economy due to government of personal interest, poor regulatory activity of listed companies, executives exorbearance, executives attitude of CEOs (winner) take all. Cooking of audited results to reflect CEO interests and wishes. Exaggerated cost of running businesses, pandemic corruption in listed companies.This made investing in Nigeria bourse a high risk.
While your financial position may be similar in the long run, your risks will be greatly reduced as you will be investing in the markets on a monthly basis as opposed to investing everything on a particular day.

Given the poor market returns and volatility experienced over the past few years, I would caution against trying to time the markets with a single lump sum investment from borrowed money.
If you are borrowing money at a much higher cost than investment returns have achieved, you will effectively create a situation where compounding is working against you.
THANKS, YOUR SCRUTINY IS WELCOME.

You said it all.......There is no hurry in life, the fact that you can service a debt of #5 million in 2 years, means you can acquire the same stock in 2 years.......and after 2 years,you even come out with extra descipline...........I only advise loans if life or a loved one is @ stake.....A loan on your monthly salary is like eating into your guaranty for a flimsy promise in the future........I have never loved the looks on those that take out loans........I dont need a gypsy to tell me that they endure sleepless nights

onegentleguy:
I have received several mails in the last 2 days asking for my take on the recent proposed MTO to the current shareholders of FO by Ignite Inv & Commodities Ltd.

This analysis is intended to highlight the key area of FOCUS with regards to the said offer.

A brief;

Company- Forte Oil(FO)
Current OS- 1,310,629,1267
Current shareholding structure:
Ignite Inv- 970,166, 694(equ 74.02%)
Other stakeholders- 340,462,573(equ 25.98%)

MTO proposal; "that Ignite inv & commodities Ltd offers to take up a total of 500,000 units of FO from willing existing shareholders @ a per equity price of N66.25, and increase its stake from the current 74.02% to 74.04%... a 0.02% vol differential.

1st off, here are a few points to note:

1) The MTO has been authorised and registered by the CMOs including the SEC.

2) Only demateralized(electronic format) shares of FO held via a stockbroker are acceptable.

3) The notice did NOT state a QUALIFICATION DATE.
The implication of this is that until the deal is consumeted(assuming a person does not exercise their right to withdrawal) every current or prospective shareholder of FO is ELIGIBLE to partake of it !!
NOTE that consummation in this case means post deposition(of shares) and until 10 working days after then.

4) Interested applicants must fill out an acceptance form duly stamped and signed by their respective brokers, and attach their most recent CSCS statement of A/C, before sending same to the registrar(VERITAS)

5) The offer price is exempt of CGT(capital gain tax)
...so by inference, the MTO of N66.25 is net of WHT. It is non-taxable !!

6) Ignite Inv reserves the sole right to possibly extend the offer period if it becomes necessary.

7) Ignite Inv shall offer to buy out only 500,000 units of FO @ N66.25 and pay out a total cash consideration of N33,125,000 to the various bank A/C of willing shareholders who deposited their stakes with the registrar(via their broker) before the closure time and whose acceptance forms were duly consummated.

8] In the event of an over-subscription, Ignite inv shall imploy a simple mathematical method of scaling back(such excesses) using the company's(FO) OS net of its original holding as a benchmark.

To illustrate;

Assuming a shareholder owns 20,000 unit of FO, and decides to tender all of it in exchange for the offer value of N66.25.
The offer shall either be fully or partly consummated.
Now assuming that only 15,000 was accepted(following full subscription), then;
Using the company's total OS net of Ignite Inv stake, the excess shall be scaled back to determine what PROPORTION/vol(in units) Ingite inv would further dim fit to take up.
Mathematically, the portion to take up from the excess(5,000 unit in this case) shall be computed as follows;
Total No of shares tenderd for the MTO by the said shareholder/total No of shares tenderd for the MTO by ALL eligible shareholders X actual vol of MTO.
= 5,000/ 340,462,573 X 500,000
Which is approx 7 unit.

Note that the total No of shares tenderd for the MTO by ALL eligible shareholders is assumed to be the total stake of FO held by others aside Ignite. The simple reason is because it makes common sense to believe that everyone(or at least 90% of current holders) will most likely apply for the MTO given the huge premium from the coys current mkt price.

The interpretation of the estimate above is that in the event of an over-subscription, an excess of 5,000 'un-alloted' unit will likely see Ignite Inv take up only 7 unit therein, Ceteris paribus.
So for every 1 excess unit(post full subscription), Ignite shall only probably take up an additional 7/5,000 or 0.0014 unit after all due consideration.


My analytical take:

Looking @ FO Oils H1 2019 financial print, the coy saw an outstanding improvement accross all KEY revenue and earnings line.
Amongst the drivers, were positive margins that cut accross the coys top line, bottom line and cashflow trend.
To narrow it down, GROSS MARGIN, NET MARGIN, PAT MARGIN, RoIC, ROAA, ROAE, EPS and EM all showed a fine improvement. ...with the latter 2 showing a remarkable double digit growth.
Like i've stated in the past, one of the things that impresses me about FO is the lower risk now associated with what used to be a 'earnings devourer'(NCI).
...meaning that the core of distributable earnings can now get to those who truly deserve it(shareholders)
Again the coys RoIC, ENTERPRISE VALUE, RE, CASH POSITION, AsY and AsQ describes a stock with a grossly underpriced stance.
Using a DDM approach(@ an assumed 0% growth to YE) and adjusting for risk, I have a FVE of N43.7 !!

Maybe, just maybe that's why the folks @ Ignite could afford to offer an MTO to existing shareholders @ N66.25.
...a cash consideration which is an over 300% potential ROI from the present mkt price of N16.45 !!

I am however curious on why the current mkt price still pegs 'a far cry'(MoS gap) from the coys present financial state.
That said, one thing is indisputable: With or WITHOUT the proposed MTO, buying FO now can ONLY mean buying into VALUE !!

My advice: Pls kindly follow ur instinct.

This is the type of heart God loves.

May your days be long.

onegentleguy:
I have received several mails in the last 2 days asking for my take on the recent proposed MTO to the current shareholders of FO by Ignite Inv & Commodities Ltd.

This analysis is intended to highlight the key area of FOCUS with regards to the said offer.

A brief;

Company- Forte Oil(FO)
Current OS- 1,310,629,1267
Current shareholding structure:
Ignite Inv- 970,166, 694(equ 74.02%)
Other stakeholders- 340,462,573(equ 25.98%)

MTO proposal; "that Ignite inv & commodities Ltd offers to take up a total of 500,000 units of FO from willing existing shareholders @ a per equity price of N66.25, and increase its stake from the current 74.02% to 74.04%... a 0.02% vol differential.

1st off, here are a few points to note:

1) The MTO has been authorised and registered by the CMOs including the SEC.

2) Only demateralized(electronic format) shares of FO held via a stockbroker are acceptable.

3) The notice did NOT state a QUALIFICATION DATE.
The implication of this is that until the deal is consumeted(assuming a person does not exercise their right to withdrawal) every current or prospective shareholder of FO is ELIGIBLE to partake of it !!
NOTE that consummation in this case means post deposition(of shares) and until 10 working days after then.

4) Interested applicants must fill out an acceptance form duly stamped and signed by their respective brokers, and attach their most recent CSCS statement of A/C, before sending same to the registrar(VERITAS)

5) The offer price is exempt of CGT(capital gain tax)
...so by inference, the MTO of N66.25 is net of WHT. It is non-taxable !!

6) Ignite Inv reserves the sole right to possibly extend the offer period if it becomes necessary.

7) Ignite Inv shall offer to buy out only 500,000 units of FO @ N66.25 and pay out a total cash consideration of N33,125,000 to the various bank A/C of willing shareholders who deposited their stakes with the registrar(via their broker) before the closure time and whose acceptance forms were duly consummated.

8] In the event of an over-subscription, Ignite inv shall imploy a simple mathematical method of scaling back(such excesses) using the company's(FO) OS net of its original holding as a benchmark.

To illustrate;

Assuming a shareholder owns 20,000 unit of FO, and decides to tender all of it in exchange for the offer value of N66.25.
The offer shall either be fully or partly consummated.
Now assuming that only 15,000 was accepted(following full subscription), then;
Using the company's total OS net of Ignite Inv stake, the excess shall be scaled back to determine what PROPORTION/vol(in units) Ingite inv would further dim fit to take up.
Mathematically, the portion to take up from the excess(5,000 unit in this case) shall be computed as follows;
Total No of shares tenderd for the MTO by the said shareholder/total No of shares tenderd for the MTO by ALL eligible shareholders X actual vol of MTO.
= 5,000/ 340,462,573 X 500,000
Which is approx 7 unit.

Note that the total No of shares tenderd for the MTO by ALL eligible shareholders is assumed to be the total stake of FO held by others aside Ignite. The simple reason is because it makes common sense to believe that everyone(or at least 90% of current holders) will most likely apply for the MTO given the huge premium from the coys current mkt price.

The interpretation of the estimate above is that in the event of an over-subscription, an excess of 5,000 'un-alloted' unit will likely see Ignite Inv take up only 7 unit therein, Ceteris paribus.
So for every 1 excess unit(post full subscription), Ignite shall only probably take up an additional 7/5,000 or 0.0014 unit after all due consideration.


My analytical take:

Looking @ FO Oils H1 2019 financial print, the coy saw an outstanding improvement accross all KEY revenue and earnings line.
Amongst the drivers, were positive margins that cut accross the coys top line, bottom line and cashflow trend.
To narrow it down, GROSS MARGIN, NET MARGIN, PAT MARGIN, RoIC, ROAA, ROAE, EPS and EM all showed a fine improvement. ...with the latter 2 showing a remarkable double digit growth.
Like i've stated in the past, one of the things that impresses me about FO is the lower risk now associated with what used to be a 'earnings devourer'(NCI).
...meaning that the core of distributable earnings can now get to those who truly deserve it(shareholders)
Again the coys RoIC, ENTERPRISE VALUE, RE, CASH POSITION, AsY and AsQ describes a stock with a grossly underpriced stance.
Using a DDM approach(@ an assumed 0% growth to YE) and adjusting for risk, I have a FVE of N43.7 !!

Maybe, just maybe that's why the folks @ Ignite could afford to offer an MTO to existing shareholders @ N66.25.
...a cash consideration which is an over 300% potential ROI from the present mkt price of N16.45 !!

I am however curious on why the current mkt price still pegs 'a far cry'(MoS gap) from the coys present financial state.
That said, one thing is indisputable: With or WITHOUT the proposed MTO, buying FO now can ONLY mean buying into VALUE !!

My advice: Pls kindly follow ur instinct.

This could also be a ploy to halt the free fall of fo.....

meshpips:
Do not buy FO until AFTER it closes a week above 18.00

Once "good news" in the financial market is made public, DON'T FALL FOR IT!

More often than not, it would be a trap.

I thought like you in the time of diamond and miss the opportunity.

I keyed in danngflour and made some money.

I ... seriously thinking of this FO stuff.

veecovee:
I thought like you in the time of diamond and miss the opportunity.

I keyed in danngflour and made some money.

I ... seriously thinking of this FO stuff.

Good to know you are learning. Fundamentals are very important, but my fundamentally sound stock have not given me as much returns as the carcass/ dead ones.
Sometimes you just gamble with these things(with money you can afford to lose oh) and gbam they pay you.
I have done the needful on FO with part of my Dangflour loot. No risk no gain.

NSE Approves Listing of Union Bank N30bn Bond
https://businesspost.ng/2019/09/02/nse-approves-listing-of-union-bank-n30bn-bond/

BUHARI IS CONDEMNING NIGERIANS TO HUNGER.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-08-30/nigeria-s-surging-food-prices-may-rise-even-faster-on-dollar-ban

UBA to Realign Funding Mix for Lower Cost of Funds
**Trims NPL Ratio to 5.62%
https://businesspost.ng/2019/09/02/uba-to-realign-funding-mix-for-lower-cost-of-funds/

Wema Bank Tutors Women How to Run Profitable Business
https://businesspost.ng/2019/09/02/wema-bank-tutors-women-how-to-run-profitable-business/

Please want to know how I can claim my outstanding dividend warrants without having to travel to Lagos (based in Ibadan) Also, want the just declared Uba dividend paid directly to me. how will i go about it?Thanks

People take loans to pay their children's school fees, house rent, buy cars, houses, start businesses, go on vacation etc

I see no reason why anyone with the cashflow can't take loans to buy shares at this point in time.. Although it will wrong for one to take such loans, hoping to use capital appreciation of such stocks to liquidate the loan.

In my personal opinion, I think there is a special reason why Access bank result is not yet out. Maybe because its too bad or because its too good, but its definitely not for the reason they gave us that its due to post merger bla bla bla.
Result that had already been audited and presented to the board for approval since July and subsequently presented to CBN for approval. They should come with another story joor.
I just hope the delay is because the result is too good for this bear market, cos I dey heavy for there. Na the biggest part if my portfolio.

So fxuser just vanished like that. Have been checking his profile periodically, he still hasn't signed in since January. Doesn't anyone know him outside of here, is he OK?

Jerekre:
So fxuser just vanished like that. Have been checking his profile periodically, he still hasn't signed in since January. Doesn't anyone know him outside of here, is he OK?

That guy. We miss him wella. Maybe he has joined buffet

Jerekre:
So fxuser just vanished like that. Have been checking his profile periodically, he still hasn't signed in since January. Doesn't anyone know him outside of here, is he OK?

Fuxer is fine. He is unto bigger things

Mpeace:
That guy. We miss him wella. Maybe he has joined buffet

You people should contribute dollars and give MESH to start charting school, he may meet FXUSER there and who Knows, he might get him back for us....

Chibuking81:
Is like Trump is the world problem? Will he make it to second tenure.

Trump is NOT our problem.. President Muhammadu Buhari IS and IS the problem of Nigeria..
Trump is making America great again. What is your president doing with Nigeria ?
Trump wants the best for his people hence his conference call with ceo’s of top banks in America concerning the fall in stock market..
The ceos were open to him and told him the trade war with China is the major cause..
They advised him and knowing the kind of person he is (one who wants to always be on the winning side, quick to blow his own trumpet and likes to compare his administration with the past administrations) THE TRADE WAR IS OVER..

Nigeria problem dey Aso rock abi na Aso Villa

DeRuggedProf:
You people should contribute dollars and give MESH to start charting school, he may meet FXUSER there and who Knowsley, might get him back for us....

I go tell you true,[s] I NO TRUST THAT MESH GUY, HIM GO USE MY MONEY SETTLE HIM PERSONAL NPLs[/s] mesh is a good guy.

Jerekre:
So fxuser just vanished like that. Have been checking his profile periodically, he still hasn't signed in since January. Doesn't anyone know him outside of here, is he OK?

He mistakenly entered a heavy Ichimoku cloud and his personal Ichimoku pilot lost contact with the control tower.
Investigations are still ongoing.
Buhari ordered THE NAVY to search all clouds and produce him this month....

I prefer Trump second, third and fourth term to Buhari first and second term.
anybody go borrow money to invest under the yeye government will be sitting on a long thing las las..

DeRuggedProf:
He mistakenly entered a heavy Ichimoku cloud and his personal Ichimoku pilot lost contact with the control tower.
Investigations are still ongoing.
Buhari ordered THE NAVY to search all clouds and produce him this month....

Lol

Agbalowomeri:
Fuxer is fine. He is unto bigger things

Oh, nice to know

Mpeace:
That guy. We miss him wella. Maybe he has joined buffet

So I hear

DeRuggedProf:
He mistakenly entered a heavy Ichimoku cloud and his personal Ichimoku pilot lost contact with the control tower.
Investigations are still ongoing.
Buhari ordered THE NAVY to search all clouds and produce him this month....

TraDeRR:
Trump is NOT our problem.. President Muhammadu Buhari IS and IS the problem of Nigeria..
Trump is making America great again. What is your president doing with Nigeria ?
Trump wants the best for his people hence his conference call with ceo’s of top banks in America concerning the fall in stock market..
The ceos were open to him and told him the trade war with China is the major cause..
They advised him and knowing the kind of person he is (one who wants to always be on the winning side, quick to blow his own trumpet and likes to compare his administration with the past administrations) THE TRADE WAR IS OVER..

Nigeria problem dey Aso rock abi na Aso Villa

Then why is Buffet sitting on billions of cash not investing it if Trump is not the problem and trade war is over

Where is tritri oh. [s]Since that FBI first list show,I never see my guy for nairaland[/s].

UBA interim dividend 20k
Qualification date: Sept 12, 2019
Payment date: Sept 18. 2019
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/27465_U_B_A_PLC_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_AUGUST_2019.pdf

aremso:
Then why is Buffet sitting on billions of cash not investing it if Trump is not the problem and trade war is over

He is taking a breather.. he told some investors that he’ll be making some “elephants size acquisitions” but not at current prices..
Even as a long term investor he also likes to sell high and re-buy low.

http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/27470_DANGOTE_FLOUR_MILLS_PLC_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_SEPTEMBER_2019.pdf

DOLLARTEX:
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/27470_DANGOTE_FLOUR_MILLS_PLC_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_SEPTEMBER_2019.pdf

e don set.

DeRuggedProf:
He mistakenly entered a heavy Ichimoku cloud and his personal Ichimoku pilot lost contact with the control tower.
Investigations are still ongoing.
Buhari ordered THE NAVY to search all clouds and produce him this month....

Navy to search cloud?
What happened with the airforce?
Searching our territorial waters ni?
Rugged, your sarcasm will soon earn you Presidential recognition oh.

aremso:
Then why is Buffet sitting on billions of cash not investing it if Trump is not the problem and trade war is over

@aremso I just read somewhere that he is planning to buy one company when it is 30% down.. see move..