PETERiCHY:


When the WAVE throws up a DROWNING PERSON passer-by will think the person is doing ACROBATICS not knowing it's GOOD BYE JANET.

I repeat JAPAUL doesn't worth 1kobo those that has ears let them hear.

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE

ACROBATICS. I LIKE THAT ONE BECAUSE THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT YOU DO WITH YOUR BARGAIN HUNTING CALLS, TODAY #3, TOMORROW #2, NEXT #4, YESTERDAY #1. What ACROBATICS could be more than this?

leo1234:



Guinness may likely go below 15 next month after they publish their financial report.


Not a sell recommendation.

Guinness gradually moving below 15.

Bargain group take note.

...

leo1234:
Guinness gradually moving below 15.
Bargain group take note.

Bargain group.

PETERiCHY:


When the WAVE throws up a DROWNING PERSON passer-by will think the person is doing ACROBATICS not knowing it's GOOD BYE JANET.

I repeat JAPAUL doesn't worth 1kobo those that has ears let them hear.

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE

Relax guy... Nobody can accurately predict this market... Stop all these rants. I dont have JP but none is lord of nse joor

uac and guinness

Marketapprentic:


ACROBATICS. I LIKE THAT ONE BECAUSE THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT YOU DO WITH YOUR BARGAIN HUNTING CALLS, TODAY #3, TOMORROW #2, NEXT #4, YESTERDAY #1. What ACROBATICS could be more than this?

veecovee:


I wrote the registrar i think on thursday, i have to give them some time. I'm travelling out for missionary work today. If i come back I'll be ready to provide any required document, and then contact the hausa man

Honestly speaking united securities do respond to my mails. I wrote them on 17 and I got response same day, and that was not the first time of writing them. You can try this

olasunkanmi.olademo@unitedsecuritieslimited.com

0
8
1
6
2
881632

Mcy56:

Lol.
We mentioned initially that Japaul may swerve to other related biz since Access is now "controlling" the dredging aspect.
Who knows an investor may come on board if the management sits up and prove they are up to the task.
Let's see how the whole scenario plays out.

Caveat: We are all just guessing here, we dont know what the management is up to.
......but coming to market to raise fund may be a positive development.
We are observing.....

I have always learnt from your humility

Mcy56:

Lol.
We mentioned initially that Japaul may swerve to other related biz since Access is now "controlling" the dredging aspect.
Who knows an investor may come on board if the management sits up and prove they are up to the task.
Let's see how the whole scenario plays out.

Caveat: We are all just guessing here, we dont know what the management is up to.
......but coming to market to raise fund may be a positive development.
We are observing.....

Are you investing or speculating in Japaul?

Enyinne:
Ok good

Which registrar and company are owing you self?

Japaulians your stock is on full-bid o

PETERiCHY:


For those that missed the UACN journey from ijora 7up to Enugu 9th mile we are coming for another trip 2moro better hold your chamge. Kosi change ooo

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE !

For those that MISSED the UACN first JOLLY RIDE from N7.10 to N9 junction. We REVIEW our next ENTRY price from N7 down to N6.20k.

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE

billtommy:
Made some purchases about 3 weeks ago....observing the direction of the market...if lower, i might average down.

Not sure i would like to make the same mistake twice. Thanks lol

Oh! Was even thinking you haven't enter market yet.
Okay. Just keep eye on Mr. Market.

DrAwo:

Are you investing or speculating in Japaul?

How do you want me to answer you now?
Okay. All of the above.

PETERiCHY:


The BEAR already started with JAPOIL with time it will TRICKLE down to other STOCKS.

Well we have ROLLED our DICE on GUINNESS at N17 junction if our BIDS doesn't get filled 2moro we MOVE it down to N16 till we get to CARDINAL STONE N15 TARGET Price.

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE

GUINNESS NIGERIA PLC

Poor operating performance; downgrade to Sell

In its recently released 9M 2020 results, Guinness Nigeria (Guinness) reported a 5.3% y/y decline in Revenue to N96.0bn from N101.4bn in 9M 2019. On q/q basis, Revenue d eclined 33.2% to N27.7bn in Q3 2020 (Jan - Mar 2020) from N41.4bn in Q2 2020. Pressured by higher excise as well as closure of on-trade channels in the final week of the quarter, the compans performance in Q3 2020 (historically one of the best quarters for Guinness) was weak with Q3 2020 Revenue and Net Income declining 17.6% and 97.2% respectively when compared with Q3 2019.

We cut our Revenue forecast for the rest of the year as on-trade channels remained shut for the first 5 weeks of Q4 2020 (Apr - Jun 2020) while ceremonial activities remain banned in many states in the country. Furthermore, while we expect lower barley price would provide some support to Gross Profit, we expect Opex and Finance cost to remain significant pressure points in Q4. We forecast a loss in the final quarter of the year which would pressure FY 2020e Net Income lower.

We cut our target price for Guinness Nigeria to N15.08/s from N32.12/s previousl y which implies a 21.5% downside to Wednesdays closing price of N19.20/s. Thus, we downgrade our recommendation to a SELL from HOLD. We have revised down our profit lines steeply and lower pricing multiples in our relative valuation models given the companys poor operating performance relative to peers. We arrive at our target price using a combination of the single stage FCFF model and Relative valuation in the ratio 60:40 with the greater weighting on the FCFF methodology.

COPIED/CSL.


BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

PETERiCHY:
For those that MISSED the UACN first JOLLY RIDE from N7.10 to N9 junction. We REVIEW our next ENTRY price from N7 down to N6.20k.

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE

Okay. Noted!
@Marketapprentic see our friend o.

Now only dangote cement remaining

ukay2:


Which registrar and company are owing you self?

megawealth01:
I have always learnt from your humility

Thanks dear.
Life itself has taught humanity to be humble.

Mcy56:

How do you want me to answer you now?
Okay. All of the above.

Just wanted to understand the reason you are somewhat optimistic about Japaul...

I will appreciate if u can help me with any contact person

ukay2:


Which registrar and company are owing you self?

DrAwo:

Just wanted to understand the reason you are somewhat optimistic about Japaul...

I'm a fan of Japaul.......Weird as it may sound.
Always prefer the penny stocks...........compared to the big caps.
They have higher risks but I think I'm somehow comfortable trading...... or should I say jijoing them.

DrAwo:

Just wanted to understand the reason you are somewhat optimistic about Japaul...

Oga, na Jijopmistic she dey oooo.....

Enyinne:
I will appreciate if u can help me with any contact person

Have you called : United Securities Limited numbers?
012714567
012714566


Also
08162881632


I got my e-dividend mandated within 1 hour after purchase of my Dangcem and have gotten my dividends


Let me know how far?

DeRuggedProf:

Oga, na Jijopmistic she dey oooo.....

Na so. Lol @ jijopmistic.

I hv been calling all the numbers u listed including sending some couple of email and yet no response.this is my first dividend with them so they dont hv my mandate yet .thanks for reaching out to me

ukay2:



Have you called : United Securities Limited numbers?
012714567
012714566


Also
08162881632


I got my e-dividend mandated within 1 hour after purchase of my Dangcem and have gotten my dividends


Let me know how far?

Neimeth is already reverting to mean. Just one or two pointers on the firm...
The company is a pharmaceutical company specialised in the manufacturing and marketing of pharmaceutical products. Its top products include NCP, Pyrantirin, and Ciklavit. The stock rallied from 36kobo to as high as N2.57, representing over a 500% upside. Many wondered if it was a genuine rally or just some penny stock being manipulated. Although the stock already started coming down, in a move that seemed to be a profit-taking action. Is the coy a good coy or not? Maybe or maybe not.

The company started as Pfizer in the late 50s. Pfizer Group were operating in the Nigerian economy then, and they operated through a subsidiary - Pfizer Nigeria. From the 50s to 1997, Pfizer was in Nigeria and they eventually opted to leave the Nigerian markets. During the process, a management buyout (Google this) took place and the name was changed to Neimeth.
Since the change of name, the company had made progress in its operations and modus operandi. A very strong characteristic of this company is its Research and Development. The company stands as one of the very few local companies with an aggressive drive towards local research. As a matter of fact, over 80% of their products have local contents somehow. Professor Maurice Iwu, a Professor of Pharmacognosy and a former Chairman of INEC, is one of the directors whose major role is to provide direction and oversight to the R & D team. The product Ciklavit was a result of local research.

The Chairman of the Board is A.B.C Orjiakor (also the Chairman of Seplat with very strong corporate governance standards). The Board consists of 11 members, with about 6 of them as pharmacists or with pharmacy background (the highest in the industry). Fidson has just 2 pharmacists out of 8 Board members. May and Baker has 3 pharmacists out of 9 Board members. GSK has just 1 person with a pharmaceutical background out of 8 Board members.
The rest of Neimeth's Board members are spread across folks with experience in banking, finance, oil and gas. The trend could also be seen among other peers. Is it a nice idea to have too many pharmacists on the board. Actually, I think it is a good thing and a bad thing as well. While it might be useful to have folks who have experience and deep knowledge about how things work in the industry - particularly an industry like the pharmaceutical industry, it might also be wise to have folks with other interests to help the company should it require the expertise of folks in other fields. Neimeth's Board consists of 8 males and 3 females (M&B, Fidson both have the same, while GSK has two females on their respective Boards).

What has been the problem with Neimeth over the years?

The challenge had been liqudity and working capital shortages. The company adopted a strategy where it decided to boost sales via increased credit offerings to distributors. The idea was that, "yeah we know we won't get cash now but we can always get cash from our customers later. If we insist that they bring cash now when they do not have, we could lose the opportunity to make sales. After all, it is not like these cash won't come."
For instance, the profit before tax of the company stood at N182mn in 2013, meanwhile impairment loss was N155mn (85% of PBT). Better put, but for the impairment loss recorded during that year, profit before tax would have been N337mn instead of N182mn. In 2014, profit before tax was negative at N198mn (that is, they made a loss of N198mn). Meanwhile, impairment loss was N154mn.

Overall, the problem was a combination of high operating expenses and high impairment losses (due to their strategy of increased credit sales). I, for one, do not like a company with liquidity issues. It is always a very red flag.

So what did the company do to fix the problem?

Obviously, it was not a sustainable thing to go on like that. As a result, the company changed strategy. They decided to change their focus from sales generation to cash generation. They told their distributors that they would only supply to folks who have cash. Those who didn't have cash had to be struck out. This is similar to what Unilever Nigeria Plc is doing presently. Resulting from the policy shift, revenue declined by 10% in 2015.
To further support their new drive, they appointed a new Managing Director, named Mrs. Ebere Igboko-Ekpunobi (Ph.D), a pharmacist by education and practice. Babe's appointment was meant to be the gamechanger. Talmabout 18 years experience in the United States (an economy very big on healthcare development) and China. Two biggest economies of the world.

Because they had to realign strategy, they took another one-off impairment and they suffered another loss in 2015.

In 2016, the strategy change paid-off. Revenue spiked by 37%. The increase in revenue was due to an improvement in sales force and distribution. Because it had to get rid of some distributors, the company strengthened her relationship with Worldwide Commercial Venture Limited, (responsible for the distribution of 80% of Neimeth's goods). Only those who had cash would get goods. Therefore, cash generation significantly improved. Operating cash flow rose by 97% from N243mn in 2015 to N481mn in 2016.
In addition, the company also halted its previous approach of widespread retailing which often resulted in lower asset quality.

That stubborn line called impairment losses, also nosedived by 45%. Overall, the company reported a profit after tax of N65mn (from loss of N335mn in 2015). Babe did remarkable well just a year in charge.

The profit trend thus far:
2013: profit of N131mn
2014: loss of N229mn
2015: loss of N336mn
2016: profit of N65mn

However, on account of accumulated losses in the past, the company had a negative retained earnings and could not pay any dividends. To make up for that, they did a bonus issue (of shares) instead.

Meanwhile, it was not to last.
On March 7 2017, a fire incident occurred that wiped out the company's factory and its entire raw materials. It was a disastrous incident that nearly resulted in the collapse of the company. Shareholders and many other stakeholders had to rally round to save the company. Directors supported by lending cash to the business and other forms of negotiations with other major stakeholder (suppliers, distributors, customers etc).

In another sad news, the newly appointed MD, who had been successful thus far, was involved in a sporting accident which made her incapacitated to function. She resigned to focus on her health.

Due to the fire incident, the company had to write-off a significant portion of its inventory (net of insurance proceeds from insurer). Again, the company went back to loss-making position.
In 2018, the company rebounded. Topline advanced by 44%, profit stood at N149mn (from a N400mn loss in the previous year). Quite impressive, to be honest. From an incident that almost took the company out just a year prior, and coming out of it in a really strong manner underpins the strong competence and leadership of the management. A significant step taken by the company was to seize the opportunity to upgrade facilities to modern standards during the renovation process. The improved facilities was expected to ensure efficiency in production activities, thus bringing down the time spent on production and costs incurred.

The company also relocated its staff from its property at Ikeja to its manufacturing premises at Oregon. That decision saved about N109mn in overhead cost. A bonus issue was declared again to shareholders because of the negative retained earnings (N800mn deficit).

In 2019, the company consolidated its efforts and this time for real, it appeared that there was going to be consistency. A new CEO was appointed, another pharmacist. He graduated from Obafemi Awolowo University (First Class, Pharmacy). He proceeded to obtain an MBA in marketing. He further obtained an M.Sc in Public Health from the University of London. He worked with May and Baker previously.

The company decided to focus on sustainability of earnings. Revenue grew by 5% in 2019, profit before tax grew by 83%.
They also mapped out a 2020 - 2024 strategy. As regards the negative retained earnings, it was going to take about 4 years to wipe it out organically (that is, using accumulated profits). Hence, the company decided to do a capital restructuring (by reducing the share premium and taking it to retained earnings) so it could pay dividends.

And this was where the rally came from.

Yeah, in Q2'20, they made a loss, although the massive profit made in Q1'20 made up for it. However, the first half of their financial year (they run on an October - September financial year) is usually the weakest. They get majority of their earnings in the second half of the year. And they are poised to maintain their profit levels in 2020.

What makes the company a viable coy?
1. I find it impressive that the company has a working solution and strategy. And thier committment to success is evident.
2. Operating efficiency.
3. Relatively strong R & D.
4. Experienced Board in the industry.
5. Relatively strong flagship products (e.g Ciklavit is a nutritional supplement for sickle cell patients)
6. Improved ROE (right now, Neimeth has the highest ROE in the industry. It's ROE of 23% compares to May and Baker's 7%, Fidson's 4%, and GSK's 10%).
Nonetheless, there is still that continued efforts required to maintain consistency in topline and bottomline growth. They also need to be quick on the capital restructuring...

#copied

Quite a lengthy post from someone who also saw some of the items we highlighted about the inherent potential and value-drive in NEIMETH.
Folks can do well to note the parts in bold. ...we already highlighted most of these items here in times past.

It is well.

Enyinne:
I hv been calling all the numbers u listed including sending some couple of email and yet no response.this is my first dividend with them so they dont hv my mandate yet .thanks for reaching out to me

Seriously?

Maybe you should keep on trying to reach them....one day they will answer you.

Emails :
securities@unitedcapitalgroup.com
info@unitedsecuritieslimited.com
customerscare@unitedsecuritieslimited.com

onegentleguy:


On NEIMITH, trust we remember that the company is of an international status with business/investment spread accross 4 francophone countries(the Gambia, Ghana, Sierra Leone and Liberia) aside Nigeria.

Some of their product within the pharmaceutical line of business like CIKLAVIT(used for the management of sickle cell disease), NCP and Homtamin G is now among the high selling ethical and consumer line product in the 5 African countries(including Nigeria) they currently operate.

The company also plays in the Veterinary(animal-related) business space with several product brands spread accross that chain.

Looking at their last 3 financial print(YE 2018 to Q3 2019 in view) though appears to be poor, it gave some insight on the drive for better growth margin.
...and when u benchmark the coys sorrounding RISK to the match of PRICE and FVE, u would see that feasible REWARD has since overtaking it(risk-return from MoS peg in view)
Like I always tell folks;

When u see a bad result reveal clear signs of accelerating REWARD compared to decelerating surrounding RISK and feasible MoS return runs ahead of the match of price against FVE, run in and ask questions later !!
Alternatively, when u see a good result reveal signs of decelerating REWARD when benchmarked with surrounding risk while price runs faster than the match of feasible MoS return against FVE, run with ur two legs touching ur head !!

Bottom line: The stock is a buy @ current mkt price.

CAVEAT: NOT to be interpreted as any sought of recommendation. ...following ur instinct should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.

Folks can do well to also keep in mind the post below !!
...everything is possible.

https://www.nairaland.com/1131485/nigerian-stock-exchange-market-pick/4883#82582641

onegentleguy:


And more to why NEIMETH needed to reprise a little downwards is because the combination of surrounding risk and current mkt price now leaves less room for reward in view of valuation.(MoS peg in view)
Today's closing price of N2.32 is a near 27% premium from my FVE of N1.70(using a mix of appropriate valuation model and assuming zero risk)

So fundamentally, PRICE has run ahead of REWARD and needs to come down.

On TA;
RSI had since moved above the overbought line(peg @ 70)
My check also confirmed that the 9-day EMA also moved above the mean line suggesting the possibility of a pullback.
However, MACD still supports an overall bullish posture post correction. ...so price may not drop so low. Am thinking of a drop to a range btw 1.40-1.71 before another short rise.
Other TA Ogas might wish to add to this.

Congratulations to all those who made some returns from playing the stock !!

Selah

And this too... noting the part in bold.
Price already below the lower band, "which is not a bad thing"

Selah

leo1234:


Guinness gradually moving below 15.

Bargain group take note.

We dey watch am
My brother...
Make man catch am for bottom...

Ok thanks .i appreciate

ukay2:


Seriously?

Maybe you should keep on trying to reach them....one day they will answer you.

Emails :
securities@unitedcapitalgroup.com
info@unitedsecuritieslimited.com
customerscare@unitedsecuritieslimited.com