megawealth01:
Seems you have WAPIC but missed TRANSCORP looking for how to buy from weak hands

I don't have any Wapic

Am well seated in Transcorp plc for a decade now at average price of N1.9....hoping to get out from N2+

ukay2:


I don't have any Wapic

Am well seated in Transcorp plc for a decade now at average price of N1.9....hoping to get out from N2+

Ok bro

bigjay01:


You must not be carried away by all the news sorrounding Transcorp. You must also factor in NCI. Transcorp may just be a vehicle used by HH.

What do i know? Am just not getting carried away.

I also have truck loads of Transcorp at an average of #1.78

We wey buy Transcorp at #7.5k nko?

Deadlytruth:


I vividly remember that 8 million units offer day. There was even a day in July last year that the stock inched up by 10% intraday and dropped back almost immediately.

Honestly investing in stocks is just a waiting game,buy good stocks at fair prices then wait.

samguru:


We wey buy Transcorp at #7.5k nko?

Expect anything from NSE... E fit shock you to surpass am

As Bigjay said CYCLE REPEATS. If you know you know.

I Regret suspending trading after 2008 bashing. Hang on, learn and get better is way to go.

If you suffered in 2018 -2019, get ready to bail out at peak point and wait for the lows again.

#CYCLEREPEATS

feelamong:


just go to a good stock broker. Otherwise invest in good coys like GT, NB, Guineess, Nestle, Int'l Brew, FBN, Unilever and have ur peace of mind!

When did International Brewery become a COY and CHAMPIONS isn't? Well na your selection sha

Kayode121:
I need stocks to buy too this year plsss o

Since you are newbie just chill... There will be a correction soon so you can enter then... For now all you see na GAMBLE

megawealth01:
When did International Brewery become a COY and CHAMPIONS isn't? Well na your selection sha

His quote that you replied to was made over 8 years ago. You should look at those companies as of January 4, 2013 when feelamong made the comment.

For your information, current market capitalization of International brewery is around 182B Naira while Champion is mere 8B Naira. Dem no be mate

unite4real:


His quote that you replied to was made over 8 years ago. You should look at those companies as of January 4, 2013 when feelamong made the comment.

For your information, current market capitalization of International brewery is around 182B Naira while Champion is mere 8B Naira. Dem no be mate

I don hear

If you're a newbie, reread this post, but this time, pay rapt attention to the last two sentences.

Go long-term, and you will create generational wealth if done right!

Kudos to you, sir bigjay01.

bigjay01:


I have about 40 stock in my portfolio (about 10 are dead, a few will turn +ve this season)
Like I wrote... amongst others (so can't list all)
UCAP is currently amongst the top performers. Been in since 90k. Holding at an average of #1.2

A couple are being held for free when you factor in dividends.

onegentleguy:


Well said. ...we are saying the same thing then.
U always took well calculated risk imploring optimal measures to derive REWARD, and HOPED for the best
...and that "hope" often materialized because of the part in italics.

It's clear that the JAPAUL folks didn't EFFECTIVELY follow through with the part in bold then.(refer to post above)
^{...it's a different story now though.}

With the illustration u gave earlier, its also clear that the woman and her spouse did not put the necessary measures in place in their quest for REWARD.
They should've also bought a rooster after buying the hen to assure for the quick reproduction of chicks.(optimal value-driven measure) ...and also put a modality in place to help protect the future chicks from dying post their reproduction, before sale(risk mitigating measure)
Then they can make enough funds to buy the goat.
But they didn't. ...so their "hope" was more of a futile one as it was broadly hinged on mere speculation than productivity.(being proactive)

An investors "hope" should be the direct consequence of a productive measure.

It is well.

As @ Q1 2020, we mentioned on several occasions here that the insurance sector will be the next best place to be considering the positive impact recent policy shifts can have on it(planned recap exercise, CBNs dovish stand and other fiscal measures including the finance act of 2020)

I recall that was when I decided to gradually take position in some select names therein. A worthy move was accumulating 5M units each of AIICO, REGENCY ALLIANCE, MUTUAL BENEFITS and ROYAL EX and near 3.5M of LINKAGE for one chief I manage his portfolio seeing he was really quite liquid then. …with the middle 3 coys purchased @ a p/value of 20k, the 1st(aiico) @ a BEP of 61k and the last(linkage) @ 35k it was clear that capital yield can well come from cash flow accruals given they were broadly dividend paying assets.
With a few like REGENCY ALLIANCE having the best HPR with yield (@ circa 15% at the time) and healthy risk-reward ratio (BS position in view), there just couldn’t have been a better time!!
But more often than not, I was criticized each time I mentioned INSURANCE COYS. I remember how I had to leave a what’s-up forum following a rain of insult for daring to recommend 3 coys back then. I was called a chief MH for drawing folks attention to MUTUAL BENEFITS and LASACO after noticing that both coys had just witnessed a turning point(BS and CGP in view) and UNIONDAC for highlighting it as a possible rewarding buy-out candidate(EPA in view).
Most annoying was how the forum moderator (a member here) who was the one that 1st contacted me to join the said platform as an analyst/moderator also joined in the destructive criticism. Funny enough, none of those who criticized me could present proof to counter the analysis I had put up, so I had to leave. Time has since exonerated me!!

This is also part of the problems we face here. …it’s what some worthy members like mcy56, @rabbi, @megawealth and a few others face, and the reason I sometimes prefer to withhold certain sensitive information.
A case in point is JAPAULGOLD. After the coys much debated FP which saw a huddle with ACCESS BANK (then japauloil), I was asked for my opinion on the matter, to which I replied; No comment!!
In truth, I never covered the coy or had it on my watch list. ...but all that changed when a few lines in their report made me have a rethink and after an in-depth review, I reached out to several close pals and some members here(@bumba1234, @billtommy, @ekpotek, @charlesniper, @tradeinvestgal to mention a few) and told them to ACCUMULATE the coy after explaining the reason it was bound to appreciate in price. Most folks I know bought @ 20-23k. As I explained to them then, JAPAUL might not be healthy but 2 things stood out:

1) When u relate the coys current BS position to its SoI and benchmark it against its CF and CGPR potential, REWARD had overtaking RISK and was making a mockery of it.
2) There were some fine lines in between the then released poor financial print that highlights the need to raise funds(EFIR and CBR in view) and signals a strong possibility for a price rise to achieve that aim.

This was even before the name change was announced. I decided against putting it up here knowing what might well be the repercussion but still gave a hint back then. See one such post above with a hint(part in bold… a revert to @oracle)
Earlier today, I read from the sideline and observed some sharp criticisms targeted @mcy56, @megainvest and a few others and I just knew it could’ve been me!! …God, I would’ve been disappointed if after taking out time to put up a comprehensive analysis of JAPAUL here for gratis I got destructively criticized.
I am not highlighting these lines to prove any point or see myself as some sought of semi-god, but to underscore the fact that this forum, this platform CAN BE BETTER!!
We can all make it better and individually grow with it. Yes we can... if we can all stop it with the mockery, ridicule and toxic criticisms and start up building each other... particularly those who go out of their way to encourage, help and sometimes offer healthy and meaningful advice to others including the new ones in our midst without any form of pay/reward. Folks like @Oracle, @bigjay @mcy56, @currentprice, @Obagadafi, @rebakah, @Drawo, @fxuser and many others here deserve no less than a pat in the back and appreciated for all they do.

Understandably, a mix of emotion can take their toil on one and make them have extreme reservation towards certain select asset… perhaps because of their not-so-good experience playing such coys. But its NOT enough reason to hate it or find disgusting the mere mention of it. U can lose money in a coy today, and gain double ur invested capital in the very same coy tomorrow. Ur astuteness, doggedness and willingness to want to learn from the experience and lessons of that failed TRADE/INVESTMENT SETUP is what makes all the difference!!
We all wish to learn. It is often said that the day u stop learning, u stop living!! I personally love to learn. Engage and criticize me constructively and I will love u for it. …am sure the same can be said of many others here.

Some of us don’t like it when we see these bouts of negative comments.(even if it’s not directed at me, I hate it) Yes there might be some folks who give advice having ulterior/selfish motives, but u can tell that there are others who don’t tour that line. Some folks here mean well!!

Personally, I will NEVER put out any write-up with an intent to deceive. …it had, has and will never align with the basic principle that defines my person. For us, we respect and appreciate why the word INTEGRITY came before the duo of MONEY and SUCCESS in the dictionary. Before ever I advice or put up any post here or anywhere else, I must have put it through a thorough scrutiny drawing from several tested analytical models.
My last recommendation here (GSK) followed a proof-test of no fewer than 7 models, 4 of which I personally developed. …the highlight of the coys –EV was just one of the other known 3. As I stated here then; GSK would still be undervalued even @ N15!! (keep a close watch on that coy and do well to align if u are yet to do so)

While there is no such thing as ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY in the investment world, the INTENT 1st, and from there ur zeal/drive and investing strategy is what really matters !!

Now back to the talk on INSURANCE coys...
Let me quickly reiterate what I said here in times past; That sector is worth a % of ur investment capital. That said, a lot should depend on how well u do ur homework. It will require a case by case study of the coys in that index to ascertain the likely big winners in line with the recent recap policy by the regulatory body(Naicom)

A quick guide;
I covered about 20 quoted insurance coys on the NSE: 1- CUSTODIAN, 2- AIICO, 3- MANSURD INS 4- MUTUAL BENEFITS, 5- PRESTIGE, 6- NEM, 7- LASACO, 8- CORNERSTONE, 9- SOVEREIGN TRUST, 10- WAPIC, 11- ROYAL EXCHANGE, 12- VERITAS KAPITAL, 13- REGENCY ALLIANCE, 14- AFRICAN ALLIANCE, 15- NIGER INS, 16- SUNU INS, 17-CHI, 18- LINKAGE, 19- GUINEA INS and 20- UNIVERSAL INS to see how VALUE can be taped.

Of the 20, Nos 4, 2, 7, 9, 10 11, 12(yes I said 12) 13, 17 and 18, carries a greater weight of value drive/prospect given their MoS peg relative to CMP(risk-reward margin in view).

In view of the planned sector recapitalization exercise which will be 2-phased- 50% and 60% of the newly stipulated minimum paid-up capital for insurers and re-insurers respectively by 31st Dec 2020(expect a lot of activities from now till the release of FY2020 FPs to capture the 1st phase) and 100%/full compliance on or before 31st Sep 2021, I see 11 of them; Nos, 1,2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7,10, 12, 17 and 18 meeting both deadlines and remaining as standalone entities with a 65% probability of acquiring the other 9. …by implication, the other 9 might pass the 1st deadline but could end up been acquired by these 11 and/or other external forces(either from within their in-house core investors or new entrants) or end up merging amongst themselves to form a bigger entity on or before the 2nd/last deadline of Sep 31st 2021.

And Yes there are a few lines to draw these inferences by relating their individual CF stand and SoI to the BS position in their financial prints and bench-marking same against the guideline of the proposed recap exercise.
However, nothing is cast in stone!! …so it’s imperative to remain vigilant and not throw caution to the gallery.

On a side note, those with holdings in No 3 should do well to thread with caution. …especially if u aligned post the bonus issuance but waiting to partake of the planned split exercise. (i.e. If u missed out on the QD of the 1st and is yet to liquidate any % holding). If u fail to extrapolate ur figures well, u might incur a loss post the split. It might be best to gradually follow through with a structured exit plan in time.
Remember that the split will likely create an exponential EM effect (4x price mark up in view)
Like I always tell folks, the increased price peg that follows a split is 88% of the time an overblown reflection of a coys valuation… so there’s often a near 1 prob. that price will fall to mirror the true value of the asset relative to earnings and the perception of market participants thereafter.
The fall though, will depend on the assets proposed factor of X. …that of MANSURED requires a careful breakdown of ur trade/investment setup to avoid a loss.
Note that this is not to say that MANSURED is an unworthy play, but to accentuate the need for carefulness.
If I can elk out the time, I will do an article drawing from an extensive analysis/review of the insurance 20 to further help us with the quest to seek REWARD.

Disclaimer: The part in italics should only be viewed subjectively. …it is NO license to any sought of recommendation. Due diligence still applies as always.
My advice? Pls follow ur instinct.

Selah

Thanks sir

onegentleguy:


As @ Q1 2020, we mentioned on several occasions here that the insurance sector will be the next best place to be considering the positive impact recent policy shifts can have on it(CBNs dovish stance and other economic measures including the finance act of 2020)

I recall that was when I decided to gradually take position in some select names therein. A worthy move was accumulating 5M units each of AIICO, REGENCY ALLIANCE, MUTUAL BENEFITS and ROYAL EX and about 3.5M of LINKAGE for one chief I manage his portfolio seeing he was really quite liquid then. …with the middle 3 coys purchased @ a p/value of 20k, the 1st(aiico) @ a BEP of 61k and the last(linkage) @ 35k it was clear that capital yield can well come from cash flow accruals given they were broadly dividend paying assets.
With a few like REGENCY ALLIANCE having the best HPR with yield (@ circa 15% at the time) and healthy risk-reward ratio (BS position in view), there just couldn’t have been a better time!!
But more often than not, I was criticized each time I mentioned INSURANCE COYS. I remember how I had to leave a what’s-up forum following a rain of insult for daring to recommend 3 coys back then. I was called a chief MH for drawing folks attention to MUTUAL BENEFITS and LASACO after I noticed that both coys had just witnessed a turning point(BS and CGP in view) and UNIONDAC for highlighting it as a possible rewarding buy-out candidate(EPA in view).
Most annoying was how the forum moderator (a member here) who was the one that 1st contacted me to join the said platform as an analyst/moderator also joined in the destructive criticism. Funny enough, none of those who criticized me could present proof to counter the analysis I had put up, so I had to leave. Time has since exonerated me!!

This is also part of the problems we face here. …it’s what some worthy members like mcy56, megawealth and a few others face, and is the reason why I sometimes prefer to withhold certain information.
A case in point is JAPAULGOLD. After the coys much debated FP which saw a huddle with ACCESS BANK (then japauloil), I was asked for my opinion on the matter, to which I replied; No comment!!
In truth, I never covered the coy or had it on my watch list. but all that changed when a few lines in their report made me have a rethink and after an in-depth review, I reached out to several pals and some members here(@bumba123, @billtommy, @ekpotek, @clarlesniper, @tradeinvestgal to mention a few) and asked them to ACCUMULATE the coy after explaining the reason it was bound to appreciate in price. Most folks I know bought @ 20-23k. As I told them then, JAPAUL might not be healthy but 2 things stood out:

1) When u relate the coys current BS position to its SoI and benchmark it against its CF and CGPR potential, REWARD had overtaking RISK and was making a mockery of it.
2) There were some fine lines in between the then released poor financial print that highlights the need to raise funds(EFIR and CBR in view) and signals a strong possibility for a price rise to achieve that aim.

This was even before the Name change was announced. I decided against putting it up here knowing what might well be the repercussion but still gave a hint back then. See one such post above where I gave a hint(part in bold… a revert to @ oracle)
Earlier today, I read from the sideline and observed some sharp criticisms targeted @mcy56, @megainvest and a few others and I just knew it could’ve been me !! …God, I would’ve been disappointed if after taking time to put up a comprehensive analysis of JAPAUL here for gratis I got destructively criticized.
I am not highlighting these lines to prove any point or see myself as some sought of semi-god, but to underscore the fact that this forum, this platform CAN BE BETTER!! Yes if we can all stop it with the mockery, ridicule and toxic criticisms and start up building each other. …particularly those who go out of their way to encourage, help and sometimes offer meaningful and healthy/rewarding advice to others including the new ones in our midst without any form of pay/reward. Folks like @Oracle, @bigjay @mcy56, @currentprice, @Obagadafi, @ rebakah and many others here deserve no less than a pat in the back and appreciated for all they do.

Understandably, a mix of emotion can take their toil on one and make them have extreme reservation on certain select asset… perhaps because of their not-so-good experience playing such coys. But its NOT enough reason to hate it or find disgusting the mere mention of it. U can lose money in a coy today, and gain double ur invested capital in the very same coy tomorrow. Ur astuteness, doggedness and willingness to want to learn from the experience and lessons of that failed TRADE/INVESTMENT SETUP is what makes all the difference!!
We all wish to learn. It is often said that the day u stop learning, u stop living!! I personally love to learn. Engage and criticize me constructively and I will love u for it. …am sure the same can be said of many others here.

Some of us don’t like it when we see these bouts of negative comments.(even if it’s not directed at me, I hate it) Yes there might be some folks who give advise having ulterior/selfish motives, but u can tell that there are others who don’t tour that line. Some folks here mean well!!

Personally, I will NEVER put out any write-up with intent to deceive. …it had, has and will never align with the basic principle that defines my person. For us, we respect and appreciate why the word INTEGRITY came before the duo of MONEY and SUCCESS in the dictionary. Before ever I advise or put up any post here or anywhere else, I must have put that thought line through a thorough scrutiny drawing from several tested analytical models.
My last recommendation here (GSK) followed a proof-test of no fewer than 7 models, 4 of which I personally developed. …the highlight of the coys –EV was just one of the other known 3(keep a close watch on that coy and do well to align if u are yet to do so)
While there is no such thing as ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY in the investment world, the INTENT 1st, and from there ur zeal/drive and investing strategy is what really matters !!


Now back to talk on INSURANCE coys.
Let me quickly reiterate what I said here in times past: This sector is worth a % of ur investment money… but a lot will depend on how well u do ur homework. It will require a case by case study of the of coys in the index to ascertain the likely big winners in line with the recent recap policy by the regulatory body(Naicom)

A quick guide;
I covered about 20 quoted insurance coys on the NSE: 1- CUSTODIAN, 2- AIICO, 3- MANSURD INS 4- MUTUAL BENEFITS, 5- PRESTIGE, 6- NEM, 7- LASACO, 8- CORNERSTONE, 9- SOVEREIGN TRUST, 10- WAPIC, 11- ROYAL EXCHANGE, 12- VERITAS KAPITAL, 13- REGENCY ALLIANCE, 14- AFRICAN ALLIANCE, 15- NIGER INS, 16- SUNU INS, 17-CHI, 18- LINKAGE, 19- GUINEA INS and 20- UNIVERSAL INS to see how VALUE can be taped.

Of the 20, No 4, 2, 7, 9, 10 11, 12(yes I said 12) 13, 17 and 18, carries with it a higher weight of value drive prospect given their MoS peg relative to CMP(risk-reward margin in view).

In view of the planned sector recapitalization exercise which will be 2-phased- 50% and 60% of the newly stipulated minimum paid-up capital for insurers and re insurers respectively by 31st Dec 2020(expect a lot of activities from now till the release of FY2020 Fps to capture the 1st phase) and 100%/full compliance on or before 31st Sep 2021, I see 11 of them; Nos, 1,2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7,10, 12, 17 and 18 meeting both deadlines and remaining as standalone entities with a 65% probability of acquiring the other 9. …so the other 9 might pass the 1st deadline but could end up been acquired by those 11 or other external forces(either in-house core investors or new entrants) or end up merging amongst themselves to form a bigger entity on or before the 2nd/last deadline of Sep 31st 2021.

And Yes there are a few lines to draw these inferences by relating their individual CF position and SoI to their BS position in their Financial prints and bench-marking against the guideline of the proposed recap exercise.
However, nothing is cast is stone!! …so it’s important to remain vigilant and not throw caution to the gallery.

On a side note, those with holdings in No 3 should do well to thread with caution. …especially if u aligned post the bonus issuance but waiting to partake of the planned split exercise. (i.e. If u missed out on the QD of the 1st and is yet to liquidate any % holding). If u fail to extrapolate ur figures well, u might incur a loss post the split. It might be best to gradually follow through with a structured exit plan in time.
Remember that the split will likely create an exponential EM effect (4x price mark up in view)

Like I always tell folks, the increased price peg that follows a split is 88% of the time an overblown reflection of a coys valuation… so there’s often a near 1 prob. that price will fall to mirror the true value of the asset relative to earnings and the perception of market participants.
The fall though, will depend on the assets proposed factor of X. …that of MANSURED requires a careful breakdown of ur trade/investment setup to avoid a loss.
Note that this is not to say that MANSURED is an unworthy play, but to accentuate the need for carefulness.
If I can elk out the time, I will do an extensive analysis/review of the insurance 20 to help us with our quest to seek REWARD.

Disclaimer: The parts in italics should only be viewed subjectively. …it is NOT a license to any sought of recommendation. Due diligence still applies as always.
My advice? Pls follow ur instinct.

Selah

UPDATED] $1.1bn deal: Elumelu’s firm buys Shell, Total, ENI stakes in oil block


https://punchng.com/breaking-shell-sells-stake-in-nigerian-oil-block-for-533m/

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.bbc.com/pidgin/tori-55687074&ved=2ahUKEwjRmcjPhaHuAhWM2hQKHXoLAPkQFjABegQIAhAB&usg=AOvVaw0pEvhiE2_eBF7hROtHtr6n

http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/32174_TRANSNATIONAL_CORPORATION_OF_NIGERIA_PLC%20PRESS_RELEASE.pdf

onegentleguy:
Pls kindly permit me to reecho these thought from near a year ago.
Have u taken out some time to pay it forward(extend to others) a part of the blessing that God has showered upon u? Honestly, after going down on ur knees to thank God for the privilege of life and his grace upon us, it is by far the next best thing to do, and a great way to kick start yet another new year.
Pls take out some time to visit the nearest orphanage, care/disability center or hospital near u. …for it is gestures and acts like these that makes for a MEANINGFUL, PURPOSEFUL and WORTHY LIFE… and one that ultimately pleases God!!

The month of December 2020 saw me and a couple of friends tour 4 different states (including my home state) extending warm regards and contributing our widow's mite to a few orphanage/less privileged homes, hospitals and care centers. No fewer than 3 members here were also involved in this noble course, and I humbly consider it a privilege to be a part of it. While what we gave out might not be so much, it is the intent that really matters.
Divine on my side, I also personally ended the year carrying out the same act in my state of resident and have since started out the new year doing same in my home state. (will visit my last target place this Sunday)
Pls I encourage u to do the same. Extend a helping hand to someone near u today. …nothing can be considered too small. Ur act of kindness might just help turnaround a dare situation or even be the support tool to save a soul.
Indeed there is more happiness in giving than there is in receiving. And remember that when u do, u create the needed room for divine to bless u even more!!

The year 2020 may have been a tough one, but I strongly believe that 2021 will be much better for all of us!!
As we strive to engage in various legitimate investment channels to better our lives, may we also remember to always keep a good standing with God. …this part, is everything!!
Beyond investments and all there is to it, my personal and honest desire (in 2021) would be wishing for a HEALTHY, FULFILLING and DIVINE-GUIDED LIFE to my family (both nuclear and extended), friends and well-wishers. …I wish u even more!!

We are already near 2,180 minutes into the new year… I welcome u to 2021. Hopefully, it shall mark the beginning of a new dawn for everyone of us.
May the greatest/finest moments of 2020 be the smallest moments in 2021!!

Regards

Pls forgive my manners... but I just want to do us another reminder to the post above.
U may wish to plan to do so before the end of this month if u haven't.(Saturdays and Sundays can be a good time) Next month, Feb 14th(also a Sunday) is another great time. I plan to make it a more frequent affair this yr with Feb 14th(V-day), my next in line.

To those who reached out to me via mail asking if I run a charity organization or NGO so they can contribute/donate through me, pls I DON'T.
...I honestly do not run any such organization or body, so I can NOT accept any donation(s). I only encourage folks to do this and sometimes support and carry close friends and relations along so we all do it together.
So pls, do it yourself. U do not need much work... wherever u are, just choose a place near ur location.

Remember the 1st part in bold. ...its a great way to kick-start ur year to EXCELLENCE!!

I wish us all a most FULFILLING year ahead!!

Regards

onegentleguy:


As @ Q1 2020, we mentioned on several occasions here that the insurance sector will be the next best place to be considering the positive impact recent policy shifts can have on it(CBNs dovish


Selah

Well said. Sir OGG

Happy New Year to OGG

Happy new year OGG. I really appreciate this your post. Someone like me always look forward to your investment advice on this forum. Any investment advice on this forum without your input, to me is not complete. Continue to do your best, God will reward you. Amen

I don't know why people will quene for days now in search of champion brewery stock when other available stocks are there to grab. The stock might take time to deliver 100% to shareholders looking at the movement. Nobody is desperate to sell 100k block units to change price. Thank God for the man who released 285,000 units yesterday. Will he still do it again on Monday?

#Awesome money to make but snail move#

Thanks for the detailed analysis.

So is it more advisable to buy the insurance company (companies) that simultaneously appear(s) on your 2 lists of a) those with greater weight of value drive prospect and b) those likely to stand on their own, post recapitalisation?

Risk is mine to bear of course

onegentleguy:


As @ Q1 2020, we mentioned on several occasions here that the insurance sector will be the next best place to be considering the positive impact recent policy shifts can have on it(planned recap exercise, CBNs dovish stance and other economic measures including the finance act of 2020)

I recall that was when I decided to gradually take position in some select names therein. A worthy move was accumulating 5M units each of AIICO, REGENCY ALLIANCE, MUTUAL BENEFITS and ROYAL EX and about 3.5M of LINKAGE for one chief I manage his portfolio seeing he was really quite liquid then. …with the middle 3 coys purchased @ a p/value of 20k, the 1st(aiico) @ a BEP of 61k and the last(linkage) @ 35k it was clear that capital yield can well come from cash flow accruals given they were broadly dividend paying assets.
With a few like REGENCY ALLIANCE having the best HPR with yield (@ circa 15% at the time) and healthy risk-reward ratio (BS position in view), there just couldn’t have been a better time!!
But more often than not, I was criticized each time I mentioned INSURANCE COYS. I remember how I had to leave a what’s-up forum following a rain of insult for daring to recommend 3 coys back then. I was called a chief MH for drawing folks attention to MUTUAL BENEFITS and LASACO after I noticed that both coys had just witnessed a turning point(BS and CGP in view) and UNIONDAC for highlighting it as a possible rewarding buy-out candidate(EPA in view).
Most annoying was how the forum moderator (a member here) who was the one that 1st contacted me to join the said platform as an analyst/moderator also joined in the destructive criticism. Funny enough, none of those who criticized me could present proof to counter the analysis I had put up, so I had to leave. Time has since exonerated me!!

This is also part of the problems we face here. …it’s what some worthy members like mcy56, @rabbi, @megawealth and a few others face, and the reason I sometimes prefer to withhold certain sensitive information.
A case in point is JAPAULGOLD. After the coys much debated FP which saw a huddle with ACCESS BANK (then japauloil), I was asked for my opinion on the matter, to which I replied; No comment!!
In truth, I never covered the coy or had it on my watch list. ...but all that changed when a few lines in their report made me have a rethink and after an in-depth review, I reached out to several pals and some members here(@bumba1234, @billtommy, @ekpotek, @charlesniper, @tradeinvestgal to mention a few) and asked them to ACCUMULATE the coy after explaining the reason it was bound to appreciate in price. Most folks I know bought @ 20-23k. As I explained to them then, JAPAUL might not be healthy but 2 things stood out:

1) When u relate the coys current BS position to its SoI and benchmark it against its CF and CGPR potential, REWARD had overtaking RISK and was making a mockery of it.
2) There were some fine lines in between the then released poor financial print that highlights the need to raise funds(EFIR and CBR in view) and signals a strong possibility for a price rise to achieve that aim.

This was even before the Name change was announced. I decided against putting it up here knowing what might well be the repercussion but still gave a hint back then. See one such post above where I gave a hint(part in bold… a revert to @oracle)
Earlier today, I read from the sideline and observed some sharp criticisms targeted @mcy56, @megainvest and a few others and I just knew it could’ve been me!! …God, I would’ve been disappointed if after taking out time to put up a comprehensive analysis of JAPAUL here for gratis I got destructively criticized.
I am not highlighting these lines to prove any point or see myself as some sought of semi-god, but to underscore the fact that this forum, this platform CAN BE BETTER!!
We can all make it better and individually grow with it. Yes we can... if we can all stop it with the mockery, ridicule and toxic criticisms and start up building each other. …particularly those who go out of their way to encourage, help and sometimes offer meaningful and healthy/rewarding advice to others including the new ones in our midst without any form of pay/reward. Folks like @Oracle, @bigjay @mcy56, @currentprice, @Obagadafi, @rebakah, @Drawo, @fxuser and many others here deserve no less than a pat in the back and appreciated for all they do.

Understandably, a mix of emotion can take their toil on one and make them have extreme reservation on certain select asset… perhaps because of their not-so-good experience playing such coys. But its NOT enough reason to hate it or find disgusting the mere mention of it. U can lose money in a coy today, and gain double ur invested capital in the very same coy tomorrow. Ur astuteness, doggedness and willingness to want to learn from the experience and lessons of that failed TRADE/INVESTMENT SETUP is what makes all the difference!!
We all wish to learn. It is often said that the day u stop learning, u stop living!! I personally love to learn. Engage and criticize me constructively and I will love u for it. …am sure the same can be said of many others here.

Some of us don’t like it when we see these bouts of negative comments.(even if it’s not directed at me, I hate it) Yes there might be some folks who give advise having ulterior/selfish motives, but u can tell that there are others who don’t tour that line. Some folks here mean well!!

Personally, I will NEVER put out any write-up with an intent to deceive. …it had, has and will never align with the basic principle that defines my person. For us, we respect and appreciate why the word INTEGRITY came before the duo of MONEY and SUCCESS in the dictionary. Before ever I advice or put up any post here or anywhere else, I must have put that thought line through a thorough scrutiny drawing from several tested analytical models.
My last recommendation here (GSK) followed a proof-test of no fewer than 7 models, 4 of which I personally developed. …the highlight of the coys –EV was just one of the other known 3(keep a close watch on that coy and do well to align if u are yet to do so)
While there is no such thing as ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY in the investment world, the INTENT 1st, and from there ur zeal/drive and investing strategy is what really matters !!


Now back to the talk on INSURANCE coys...
Let me quickly reiterate what I said here in times past; That sector is worth a % of ur investment capital… but a lot will depend on how well u do ur homework. It will require a case by case study of the coys in that index to ascertain the likely big winners in line with the recent recap policy by the regulatory body(Naicom)

A quick guide;
I covered about 20 quoted insurance coys on the NSE: 1- CUSTODIAN, 2- AIICO, 3- MANSURD INS 4- MUTUAL BENEFITS, 5- PRESTIGE, 6- NEM, 7- LASACO, 8- CORNERSTONE, 9- SOVEREIGN TRUST, 10- WAPIC, 11- ROYAL EXCHANGE, 12- VERITAS KAPITAL, 13- REGENCY ALLIANCE, 14- AFRICAN ALLIANCE, 15- NIGER INS, 16- SUNU INS, 17-CHI, 18- LINKAGE, 19- GUINEA INS and 20- UNIVERSAL INS to see how VALUE can be taped.

Of the 20, Nos 4, 2, 7, 9, 10 11, 12(yes I said 12) 13, 17 and 18, carries a greater weight of value drive prospect given their MoS peg relative to CMP(risk-reward margin in view).

In view of the planned sector recapitalization exercise which will be 2-phased- 50% and 60% of the newly stipulated minimum paid-up capital for insurers and re-insurers respectively by 31st Dec 2020(expect a lot of activities from now till the release of FY2020 FPs to capture the 1st phase) and 100%/full compliance on or before 31st Sep 2021, I see 11 of them; Nos, 1,2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7,10, 12, 17 and 18 meeting both deadlines and remaining as standalone entities with a 65% probability of acquiring the other 9. …so the other 9 might pass the 1st deadline but could end up been acquired by those 11 and/or other external forces(either from in-house core investors or new entrants) and/or end up merging amongst themselves to form a bigger entity on or before the 2nd/last deadline of Sep 31st 2021.

And Yes there are a few lines to draw these inferences by relating their individual CF position and SoI to the BS position in their Financial prints and bench-marking it against the guideline of the proposed recap exercise.
However, nothing is cast in stone!! …so it’s imperative to remain vigilant and not throw caution to the gallery.

On a side note, those with holdings in No 3 should do well to thread with caution. …especially if u aligned post the bonus issuance but waiting to partake of the planned split exercise. (i.e. If u missed out on the QD of the 1st and is yet to liquidate any % holding). If u fail to extrapolate ur figures well, u might incur a loss post the split. It might be best to gradually follow through with a structured exit plan in time.
Remember that the split will likely create an exponential EM effect (4x price mark up in view)
Like I always tell folks, the increased price peg that follows a split is 88% of the time an overblown reflection of a coys valuation… so there’s often a near 1 prob. that price will fall to mirror the true value of the asset relative to earnings and the perception of market participants.
The fall though, will depend on the assets proposed factor of X. …that of MANSURED requires a careful breakdown of ur trade/investment setup to avoid a loss.
Note that this is not to say that MANSURED is an unworthy play, but to accentuate the need for carefulness.
If I can elk out the time, I will do an article drawing from an extensive analysis/review of the insurance 20 to further help us with the quest to seek REWARD.

Disclaimer: The part in italics should only be viewed subjectively. …it is NOT a license to any sought of recommendation. Due diligence still applies as always.
My advice? Pls follow ur instinct.

Selah

locodemy:
I don't know why people will quene for days now in search of champion brewery stock when other available stocks are there to grab. The stock might take time to deliver 100% to shareholders looking at the movement. Nobody is desperate to sell 100k block units to change price. Thank God for the man who released 285,000 units yesterday. Will he still do it again on Monday?

#Awesome money to make but snail move#

If I can have everyone's attention pls...

Pls if u are among those who’ve been trying to reach me via any of the social media interaction platform like what’s up, telegram etc, am sorry if u cannot do that.
I have an issue with the Samsung tab housing the data sim for that purpose, and don't have the necessary back-up in place to allow for a content switch(was a relatively new tab)
Will work to restore things to initial stance given the pivotal nature of the content/files I have therein, including my several interactions with some of u fine people!!
So if u are among those who can’t reach me(members of some of the forums I belong to, inclusive) then my link with u should be with that tab/data sim. …in which case u may wish to pls use the mail channel as an alternative for now.
U can send a mail via this platform(to: onegentleguy3@gmail.com) …otherwise those who have my mobile contacts can send me an sms or call, where a matter requires urgent attention.
Thank u for ur understanding.

Do have a blissful week ahead!!

Regards.

Despite that I was a laggard while in school, I still remember how d laws of motion were been forced into our innocent heads by our not so cool teacher. I chop plenty flogging in those days o. The evidence still there on my left butt chick. Do u want to see?

Anyhoo, the first law goes like this:

"Newton's first law states that every object will remain at rest or in uniform motion in a straight line unless compelled to change its state by the action of an external force."

It is funny how concepts from one domain can be brought into another.

The concept of momentum(inertia) works for stock prices same way it works for objects, at least in theory...

So, if a particular stock returns more than let's say 7% on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday will I be wrong if I buy on Thursday morning and sell on Friday at 2pm or next Monday morning ?

Will I be more right than wrong, infact, will i be right enough times that i can be making some overall profit ?

Can adjusting these parameters improve things?

These troubling questions I intend to answer next with past data. Stay tuned as we hunt for that strategy that will change my life story. Not yours o, my life story



#sytematic_trader



Hey! Hey! Hey! Those who are about to diss me for plagiarism, just know that I don't claim to be d founder of this concept.

onegentleguy:
If I can have everyone's attention pls...

Pls if u are among those who’ve been trying to reach me via any of the social media interaction platform like what’s up, telegram etc, am sorry if u cannot do that.
I had an issue with the Samsung tab housing the data sim for that purpose, and didn’t have the necessary back-up in place to allow for a content switch at the time(was a relatively new tab)
Will work to restore things to initial stance given the pivotal nature of the content/files including my several interactions with some of u fine people!!
So if u are among those who can’t reach me(including members of some of the forums I belong to) then my link with u should be with that tab/data sim. …in which case u may wish to pls use the mail channel as an alternative for now.
U can send a mail via this platform(to: onegentleguy3@gmail.com) …otherwise those who have my mobile contacts can send me an sms or call where a matter requires urgent attention.
Thank u for ur understanding.

Do have a blissful week ahead!!

Regards.

Happy New year the Guru

sonofElElyon:
Thanks for the detailed analysis.

So is it more advisable to buy the insurance company (companies) that simultaneously appear(s) on your 2 lists of a) those with greater weight of value drive prospect and b) those likely to stand on their own, post recapitalization?

Risk is mine to bear of course

Yes, the 1st list (a)... those with greater weight of value drive/prospect is absolutely cool, irrespective of whether they'd eventually be a standalone coy or not.
But hey! do well to read through my signature below.

Cheers

ositadiima1:
Despite that I was a laggard while in school, I still remember how d laws of motion were been forced into our innocent heads by our not so cool teacher. I chop plenty flogging in those days o. The evidence still there on my left butt chick. Do u want to see?

Anyhoo, the first law goes like this:

"Newton's first law states that every object will remain at rest or in uniform motion in a straight line unless compelled to change its state by the action of an external force."

It is funny how concepts from one domain can be brought into another.

The concept of momentum works for stock prices same way it works for objects, at least in theory...

So, if a particular stock returns more than let's say 7% on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday will I be wrong if I buy on Thursday morning and sell on Friday at 2pm or next Monday morning ?

Will I be more right than wrong, infact, will i be right enough times that i can be making some overall profit ?

These troubling questions I intend to answer next with past data. Stay tuned as we hunt for that strategy that will change my life story. Not yours o, my life story

#sytematic_trader

Hey! Hey! Hey! Those who are about to diss me for plagiarism, just know that I don't claim to be d founder of this concept.

Smiling intensely to the part in bold.
...U are doing a great job though. Pls keep up the pace!!

Cheers

OBAGADAFFI:


Happy New year the Guru

Thank u Sir!!
...but am not a guru oo. I am still a "scratchy" learner.

Regards

OGG your contributions here are valued beyond measure, we are always looking forward to it, please continue doing the good job and forget the nay sayers, remember even prophets were stoned!

OGG your contributions here are valued beyond measure, we are always looking forward to it, please continue doing the good job and forget the nay sayers, remember even prophets were stoned by the same people they brought good tidings to. Please don't relent.

onegentleguy:


Thank u Sir!!
...but am not a guru oo. I am still a "scratchy" learner.

Regards

I like your humility.

But you are a Guru,

Have you noticed that traders here impact the NSE?

@Onegentleguy
Compliment of the season sir!
You're welcome back.
Thanks for those kind words too.
Also glad to see my moniker in the list of those top ogas, student in the midst of lecturers! Chai!! Feels good. Thanks sir.
*edited*