₦airaland Forum

@Shigidi

i am fine bro. japaul po is mo mouthwatering tho we are yet to see the prospectus. the eps is currently 30k so the new shares will dilue it further.
Any play on buying on the floor is speculative and could yet be profitable on the short term, albeit its risky.
tell your friend to send the money to me

on a more serious note, most stockbroking firms have accounts that you can wire the money to from outside the country. If you ask them, they will guide you into payment proceedures. that's safer. that way, your friend can transfer the money from her bank in us/uk/wherever.

me? I used to do western union to my broker (Do not do this unless you know your broker's wife, sisters, brothers, dad, mum like i do! ). I'd split the money into 4 and send one by one so all he could run away with was 25%. Fortunately i survived this ad hoc arrangement.

@stevie
All things been equal (which they hardly are), low PE means a BUY opportunity.

@krisbobo
Since you are looking for good solid long term returns, I will advise you to consider allocating a good part of your portfolio to banks.
I like FCMB, Diamond, First Bank, Intercontinental, even GTB and some others.
While some of these might look overly expensive now, they will become relatively very cheap in the next 12-36 months. Some of these banks have amazing ability to meet forecasts. I was going through some fcmb forecasts made last year and i am amazed how they have met the forecasts almost to the letter.
Rate of growth is very fast so even a PE of 30 today easily becomes 15 next year and 7.5 the year after assuming PAT or eps grows 50%.
In order countries, such high growth companies trade at huge PE's. Google for instance currently trades at PE of about 87 (yes 87!!) and it only grows at 50% annually, people are still buying because thats a pe of 21 in 2 years, Manchester United was bought for a PE of around 50! BUT all these probably make no sense to the 4 months trader which thankfully you are not.

However one should always balance short term risks with some solid long term bargains too.
Wema, Crusader, japaul, Nigerian-german are other stocks that i like because they look undervalued currently.



yes my email is temietope@gmail.com

@Whitelexi
Not everyone has said that dangote is fine. I, easimoni and some others have expressed our reservations at dangote not being very cheap when compared to the market.
If you have a time frame of 9-18 months or more tho, then it is actually not bad, you should be rewarded for waiting

@bibiking1
Welcome to the stockmarket.
Your heart will always fight with your head as long as you are in this market.
Your head will be right most times. Occasionally though, your gut instinct will be right.
My candid advice is, don't lose your sleep (that way you can make better decisions).
Relax. Insurance is very bullish over the long haul even though there might be a lot of grey areas currently due to ongoing capitalisation.
The SEC website indicates that the merger with NEm was approved. I will try to snoop around for you in any case.

there's no cause for alarm.
Just get it cheap, its 4.78 now which is not bad
Crusader is also on the buy list of a lot of brokerage firms
The 3rd quarter result should be out sometime in November.
That will be an important indicator

moneytalk:
@ All

What are the minimum you can have to open a stock broking account in Naija, is there any stock brokers that takes #100,000:00 for account opening?

I know you can start a 100k acct with cashcraft, even less

@NBA

I must commend you. This is a brilliant thread.
I am actually thinking of opening an account with vetiva.
Can you please advise me on their execution time for orders?
Do they execute orders on the same day?
What are their charges like?

bibiking1:
@TEMMIE10

Please i would be pleased if you took a position on ACEN insurance, i really am quite confused

@ALL
where can i get comprehensive FOREX trade Education

I guess we can say your question is answered. Acen is part of NEM insurance.
It is very likely though that the Acen shares have not been listed, in which case they will be listed in due time.

@all
I am checking on the crusader mergers, its likely that they'll be adding more shares in due course. Not confirmed though.

@akininNC
I'll be watching transcorp closely this next week to determine which way, esp as no fundamentals currently support it.
Its going to be a risk based on their assets primarily and faintly on the future expansion plans,
the xpansion plans count for very little at this point, the company is supposed to make 2 billion in earnings this year and 20 billion next year, and this is just ceo's gist,
I heard that a block of 60million units was offered for sale last friday and only 33m was sold so its still looks like its going down on monday at least.

@chokit
i have replied you

akininNC:
@ Temmie 10
Are you saying you would not stake a position in Transcorp even @ #3 per share. It seems to me that they have too many businesses and one that we need in Nigeria hence they have to turn the corner in the long run. Please let me know your position.
AkininNC

i have not said that
On the contrary, I would be willing to take a [b]risk [/b]at 3 naira (but its still risky at that because it would take a huge further sell-off for transcorp to get to 3 naira, that kind of sell-off is unlikely and should raise questions)
What i meant was that even at 3 naira, it is still not the most mouthwatering deal at the market,
But i probably would buy if it goes that low,

jehosaphat:
Guys,
Anyone willing to comment on Ashaka Cement. I know they have a lot of cash and are trying to restructure even though have been hit badly recently by Wapco, BCC, CCNN, Flour Mills and even the proposed Obajana. Will it be wise to let drop some more and then take a position? Any estimate as to when a good point would be?

And this Transcorp, looks interesting. I'll watch and see what happens. I know there are some strategic investments going on underneath but they need to streamline things and quit blowing hot air. Make investors happy!!
Happy weekend all.

Ashaka is a long term investment at this point,
It could take close to 2 years to realise significant value to compensate for your choice of ashaka at this time.

Transcorp is interesting, if it keeps dropping like this, it could even become a short term investment, Lets see what happens this next week, the only problem is that it is hardly the pick of the market even at 3 naira, the earliest when any value will be realised by the company itself is still 2008

@bibiking1
That Acen insurance pass me o.

You guys should take a step back and ask some pivotal questions

If you had the money and you wanted to build your house, would you build something really nice? Most will answer yes.
So its right to have beautiful, extravagant personal homes, offices, cinemas, malls, .except churches

Something creeps out the holiness/moralist in you when churches want to be extravagant BUT you can afford to be.
Abeg lets not be hypocritical here.
The temple of Solomon built for God in the bible was more extravagant than any church building today, and God liked it.

@akin
an aggressive company is also a more risky company. I am not asking you to shun aggressive companies, rather i am asking you to understand the risk fully, that way u are prepared for whatever outcome. I would.


I have been hearing rumour of union bank for a while, one fellow even said they are merging with gtb. We have not heard anything from the bank itself but it is not impossible that union bank give a bonus especially with their miserly performance in recent years

@all
One sure sign of an overvalued market is one with lots of rash low quality public offers. Yes! low quality offers and that is what we have in the market right now.
These offers need the market to remain hugely bullish to justify a good performance. INtl breweries has not paid any dividend over the last 5 years and they dun expect to pay any in the next 3 even by their own ambitious forecasts, and the offer is overpriced jus like the other ones in the market currently

Be careful what you buy at this time.
Having said that, Cornerstone is back on my buy list. Its not 3 months tho but its very promising.

virusabbey:
Hey Naira Landers,
                  I am happy to finally be here but just like to say a little bit about myself, I am a 21 year old guy who is crazy about stock thought my parents never liked it but i can tell you i have been saving for long term trying to build up my portfolio before i started visiting naira land and learnt a little about trading of stocks and i think it is intresting as i have waisted a lot of money buying worthless stocks like wema bank,transcorp, prestige and all were bought at a higher price thought from a secondary market, Please i have some capital of 70,000naira with me now and i want to trade so can anyone advice me on what stock i can buy to at least get some more money so i could be encouraged here?You are free to email me on my email which is biodun4eva@yahoo.com because i don't really know how to use naira land, Hope a good fellow citizen can help a young boy before going astray(GOD FORBID)

Wema is not wothless, started the year at 2 naira plus and it will surely end the year having 6-10 times that price
Transcorp depends on when you enter. Even if you had bought the all expensive po,  had sold a couple of units at 9 and rebuy at around 4-5, you will be in a much better position.
this year has also been very profitable for prestige shareholders
When you buy, when you sell, what you buy, what to hold are equally important decisions.
you are young and you have the desire to learn and potential to be a an even better investor,
your 70k could be 700k in 3yrs, but you'd have to devote time tho
my email is temietope@gmail.com. (spammers dun even bother)

frankiriri:
I have not had time to really gothru it but it appears to be ok. I like the fact that their 2007 PE is below ten and their trailing PE is about 11.

Something's amiss.
eps for 2007 is 0.74, 0.92 for 2008 and 1.39 for 2007

Have a look at page 7 of http://cashcraft.com/NahcoProspectus.pdf

@all
I just saw nahco's prospectus and i am not impressed o.
is there something i am missing?
shigidi et al, what do you think?

@samstone4
Trust me, i am not anti-transcorp at all, i dun love companies and i dun hate them. Peformance is all i care about.

Since you bought private placement, you are at an advantage. Most Nigerians bought at a much higher price.
Besides, i am sure CocaCola had a much better corporate governance than Transcorp

And on buying more shares if it drops, i would be happy to consider buying shares of any company that is grossly undervalued. Transcorp, my friend is not yet undervalued, not at this time.
If that money was used to buy an insurance po last september, we'r talking at least 500%, if it was a banking stock a la fidelity, intercontinental,wema, ibtc, afribank, fcmb etc, you'd still have made at least 400%. Why tie your money down unnecessarily?

The duration of the time when your money was locked in Transcorp, you could have invested the money elsewhere, multiplied it many times and still come back to buy many more units of Transcorp even cheaper when you so decide.
You can be a your own billionaire not necessarily a Transcorp billionaire.

@Akin
Wema is a buy, 10 naira is still a very good price

Shigidi is spot on. Even though i would bail out if crusader goes around 8 this year (except of course our darling cbn funds are released ).
I do have some questions about the capital structure.
But the profit attributable to shareholders is still very mouthwatering.

Btw has anyone noticed that transcorp md has been talking up the company a lot in recent weeks, every other day, there's an article about how trashcorp will be great, even as the company's shareprice is having a freefall, ?
Someone please tell that man that he needs to do more than pr and talking up, The company should get to basics, by last count they had over a quarter of a million shareholders. I think those ppl deserve more than hype.

jehosaphat:
@ Temmie 10.
Bros answer me na?? how does one identify companies that will focus more on returning value to investors by way of dividend than by increasing share price without any side dividends. I know share price increase is good but one or two cash return from time to time no bad at all.

Where BIGBOYLARY dey na? Abi u don sell your "crystal ball" take buy Dangote?? . Abeg which juicy stocks dey on the horizon

Where easimoni? You don make the money finish

the question on dividend is very subjective. In theory, a company should only pay dividends if there are no projects that will give the shareholders a better return. Its all about company culture and dividend payout policy.

Some companies pay out most of their earnings (this makes sense if its a monopoly and there's very little threat to income, also real estate companies would normally payout most of their earnings as dividends)
Some other companies pay out very little  dividends (this makes sense for insurance companies because of the nature of the business tho there have been exceptions in recent times, Crusader paid 15k in May, )


@Easimoni
enjoy your break,
we'll be waiting for you when u come back sha o

Its been a busy past few days for me but i thot i'd just leave some comments here tonite:

The market is looking very interesting: Insurance funds will be released for real soon. Those spiraling upwards are probably because of insider information. In any case, some exposure to insurance at this time is very healthy for those looking at good gains.

Dangote Flour is so different from dangote sugar. dangote sugar is a monopoly, dangote flour is not. Dangote sugar was offered at a discount, Dangote flour is being offered at a premium. Dangote sugar was offered at a trailing pe of 10, it was undervalued even if the company did not produce any sugar again after the po, Dangote flour is being offered at a trailing pe of 35, it is not a monopoly and any figurative chance of profit depends on the company's aggressive growth plan working out very well, but it does carry some sentiment if that counts for anything.
Verdict: It will do well but not as good as dangote sugar, give this consideration especially in the amount you expose yourself to.

I cannot remember who asked me about unity bank last week, IN any case, get out now. The figures for the bank are BAD. except there is a takeover, foreign investor or speculative madness, i dun see much upside. It is at 6.6 now and that is grossly overpriced. Some insurance companies have much much better earnings per share than unity, looks like they are being listed in the wrong category to me.

Diamond,Intercontinental, wema are also looking very healthy, FCMB's public offer is a good one by the way.

Hope this helps someone

easiest and most comfortable penalty shootout i ahve seen in a while

Thank God oooooooooooooooo
Thank you Jesus

i think spain came to play for penalties

anichebe picked an inury in training, thats y he dint play

@enurayce
I am not sure you want to go to cashcraft o except you know somebody there .
Their execution of deals is slow.
I am not too sure about Valueline, dunno anything about their capital base.

I have not seen japaul's prospectus but the current price of 6.02 is currently fair as their eps is 30k so the 3.95 is an obvious discount of about 35%.

Union Diagnostics's forecasts are ambitious BUT i expect that there's a good chance that they'll meet the forecasts.
If a company makes a forecast in the 3rd quarter of 2007 about 2007 results, then i would think the forecasts are based largely on some already achieved results in the last 2 quarters.

So thats it, you will make money on both of them. The rest of the decision on money allocation is yours o.

@Tmoni
yes wema is planning a po. i feel you, value stocks respond over time and many times are not usually the most fashionable but in the long run, they have been shown to perform better,

@jehosaphat
Thers's diff schools of thoughts on investing, one school is value investing which summarily believes that one should never pay too much for a stock and will be happy to buy predominantly undervalued stocks, low PE's, Low price to book ratio, good dividend payout ratio are welcome in value investing. Buffet is the king of value investing.

The other school is growth investing which basically seeks companies with the highest expected earnings growths and prospects, and tries to position themselves so that they benefit from the expected high earnings growth. They usually would not mind buying a company with a high PE, PEG is more important in such a case,

There's variations and in most cases, people apply a mix of both. In a bullish market, growth managers will smile more in most cases, in a bear market, more often than not the value investors are the ones that get burnt much less because they bought stocks at a margin of safety.
I subscribe more to value investing, though i obviously am not averse to sticking my head in when i sense good earnings growth. Thats how i ended buying insurance stocks, and besides, who no want be like Buffet?

PDF:
Yes o! It's 2 - 0. Uche on target.

Kanu just slapped a player of the pitch. Guess what he got?. . . Nothing.

r u serious?

@Easimoni

I was reading yesterday that Crusader's asset base is 13 billion naira,
For a company whose current market value is 16.2 billion naira and with forward eps of 0.36, i still think its a hot bargain.

@Tmoni
If you can get Wema at around 10 naira that its currently selling, you'd make a handsome gain in the in the next 3-5 months

@jehosaphat

I am sure that if you have someone drop it at cashcraft, you'd be good.
I am not sure about the hospital itself.
Intercontinental should accept the payment too.

easimoni:
From FSDH Daily Report
If they kept only 5B shares from the PO (total now 15.7B), the forward PE is only 18. Hmmmmmmmmmm. Abeg wetin be "Irredeemable Non-Cumulative Preference Shares"? Grammar too much.

18million doesn't sound like a lot.
If i remember correctly, irredeemable non-cumulative preference shares, it is like ordinary share capital except holders do not have the right to vote. Holders also take priority in dividends and liquidation. Dividends are only paid to holders from PAT too. So if the company loses, no dividends are paid unlike debt where interest is always paid come rain come shine.
Irredeemable means its permanent capital just like ordinary share capital.
It is however possible that in some years, holders of these preference shares can be paid dividends even if dividends are not paid to ordinary share capital holders in such a year where maybe PAT is very little, that is in extreme cases though.
Like i said, 18million is not a lot and should not make too much diff in your calculation.

onuku:
Temmie10, Frankiriri, and easimoni; Please guys, how can one get the form for the International Breweries PO. I can't find the website for the Sterling Capital Market Ltd.
Can you guys hook a buddy up with the form.

Appreciated.

here's the website for sterling capital. Doesn't contain much tho.
http://www.sterlingcapitalng.com/home.cfm

yodiyokun:
Yeepa,

I was hoping to get in on insurance this month but it seems I am too late. I am not ready to buy in the middle of a bullish run that may not last. Please join me in praying for the bears.

The bears have been around for close to 3 months,
Everyody was moaning,
and you want them back so soon eh

my fingers are crossed on this one too

@ALL

I just saw today's closing prices, and insurance is on an amazing run