Temmie10's Posts

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Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 4:49pm On Feb 11, 2008

aktopgun:
ok ok , na because of u o. Insurance for now is a no go area for me but for AIICO and even then i no too get liquidity right now. abi na bendel insurance u mean?

bendel wetin? i am laughing my head off right now,
keep an eye on insurance, yes they are overvalued, yes there will be blood (daniel day lewis anyone?) but theres lotsa pos, lotsa mopping up, lotsa interests and There will still be lotsa opportunities (i dun mean buying cornerstone at 8 or 9 tho, thats a disaster waiting to happen in my view)

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 4:45pm On Feb 11, 2008

aktopgun:
shhhhh! no talk too loud make the supporters of that yeye team begin dey think say them don win premireship. Na for the theatre of dreams i dey wait them. me personally don stake my portfolio on fabregas im leg, we must break am!

pls unbet your portfolio,
we will win yes, but those boys are not worth it,
Lets bet your portfolio on insurance instead grin

, thats more exciting

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 4:42pm On Feb 11, 2008

FatherOF2:
@ Temmie10'

One of the sweetest names on this forum. Welcome back. How oyinbo UK?.

Baba ibeji himself
i see you have been doing justice to short term efficiency, more grease,

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 4:39pm On Feb 11, 2008

easimoni:
Temmie10,
na your face be this?

@ ALL,
my musings after seeing today's numbers:

[list]
[li]Deap Cap and Big Treat both dropped points; the party is over (?)[/li]
[li]After losing ~20% in the previous 7 trading days, Trans-Expr gained today. It may have bottomed-out. Grab your copy now[/li]
[li]The N50 resistance seems real o. Even Zenith is butting heads with it. UBA failed to breach it. But the Elephant just broke through it! If FBN can sustain a run above 50, the next set of results by UBA/Zenith/Union/InterCont may be enough to wipe out the resistance. Get your UBA now/soon. See what AP did to the downstream sector, esp Oando[/li]
[li]Blood-letting continues on the Ins dance floor. Too unstable for the faint-hearted.[/li]
[/list]

na me o,
i would be careful about the elephant o. the numbers the elephant have released up till now hardly justify a sustained daily 5% gain,
insurance is a real blood on the dancefloor but its sure fun when you can read the times,
i was telling a friend to take profit on lasaco last week shortly b4 it got to 6, my good fren wanted 6 on the dot. how many profit takers were waiting for 6?
UBA is much better value in terms of earnings valuation but its not a cico o.
Btw u see how them give us silent 2-1 remembrance yestada?

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 4:31pm On Feb 11, 2008

aktopgun:
welcome back bro. na im be say na fertilizer u use be that (ie price inflation with no obvious justification) and we all know where that leads eventually

it doesnt have to be fertilizer o, a lot of things can cause upward price movement.
Some can like the way a company's name sounds and they ask their broker to buy millions of units, u will be surprised, or let me ask you, when was the last time you saw afroil's result? (note: this is not a sell or buy recommenation on afroil o, this one na just ILLUSTRATION!)

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 4:23pm On Feb 11, 2008

aktopgun:
. who needs converting. abi na because i don add another weapon of stock destruction to my armoury (notice i avoided that yeye team's name ).
what is good is good and what is not good is very bad. i am an investor, chikena. long term, short term, all that is splitting hairs. i stongly believe in the learning thats involved in the investing process and like a seed, any investment needs time to grow and take root. pull it out too early and it dies.

if a seed grows too fast, sometimes its wise to pull it out and eat grin

(take profit on temporary irrational/overblown overvaluation)
btw i figure u are also supporting the champions, kudos

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 2:17pm On Feb 05, 2008

orisebawo:
I applied fro 26,400 units and got zero allocation,Dangote returned all my money, a bit confused

maybe the application was rejected or treated as invalid
u can check with the registrars

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 5:34pm On Jan 31, 2008

@ all
about the FBN elephant,
certs have been released, cscs accounts have been credited with shares from the past po,
there's more sellers than buyers at the moment, hence the price dip, but fundamentally it is as sound as you get,

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 1:37pm On Jan 30, 2008

bjluv:
@all the gurus them, wanaj0, pumping777 e.t.c

Please abeg, Skye or FirstInland, which IPO would you recommend that I go for towards a medium-long term? thnx

skye looks much better than FIB but if you are looking at 12 months or more, then you could as well go with FIB,
be careful with oversubscription tho
u cn stil get fib even 2 weeks after the closure, check with a reliable broker

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 1:35pm On Jan 30, 2008

@harrisoft
Nobody has to die for me to appear o,
This year has started busy for me,
But no worries you are in safe hands with all the fundamentalists and bombers around,
I am always reading and enjoying the comments, if better dey, let me know, i'll reply you grin

@all
Going forward, FBN is looking like doing a big one o, the fundamentals are there, very well capitalised (250 BN!), very good liquidity, expect even more growth! (not for short term o)

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 9:00pm On Jan 29, 2008

easimoni:
The thing baffle me no be small. I bought small at 7.50 thinking it'd take 2-3 months to RORO/CICO/GIGO (do I sense Fo2 smirking, saying "this fundamentalist dey CICO?". Now, 6 wks l8r, I'm about to pull the trigger. I don't think the 200+% PAT growth rate is sustainable (revenue is growing at 70%) and therefore a forward PE of 40 is not justifiable (my opinion)

looking at current market earnings fundamentals, i dunno what is justifiable anymore grin

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 6:41pm On Jan 29, 2008

@frankiriri
my condolenses

@easimoni
Btw me and you, we knew that lasaco was a 7 billion mine field since now

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 4:42pm On Jan 24, 2008

son5070:
NAHCO ALLOTEMENT !

Got this from STOCKMARKET FORUM
1000 units 100%
1001-2000 30%
2001-3000 - 21%
3001 - 4000 - 20%
4001 - 5000 - 15%
5001 - 6000 - 12%
6001 - 7000 - 11.5%
7001 - 8000 - 11%
8001 - 9000 - 10.5%
9001 - 10000 - 10%
10001 - 15000 - 9%
15001 - 20000 - 8%
20001 - 25000 - 7.5%
25001 - 30000 - 6.5%
30001 - 35000 - 6%
35001 - 50000 - 5.75%
50001 _ 100000 - 5.5%
100001 - 200000 - 5.25%
200001 - 300000 - 5.2%
300001 - 1M - 5.175%
1,000,001 and above 5.137%

If this is true, then to put it lightly, the allotment is shameful,
Never liked the po though, thot it was expensive

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 2:42pm On Jan 24, 2008

crazyT:
@ Temmie10

Wazup with you, it's quite an age. Do you still remember how I disturb you with my Afroil and Capoil questions about 6 months back? Mehn! God is good o, the thing don yield better.

@ All
Make una help me thank Temmie 10, Wanaj0, Frankiriri and Easimoni o, they were never tired of my questions. May the good Lord blessed the works of thy hands in Jesus name (Somebody say Amen)

you know the way we thank now grin

happy for u man

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 2:24pm On Jan 24, 2008

@koksieboy
i dey kampe,
hope u were able to take profit on the stocks u mentioned then

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 4:08pm On Jan 22, 2008

easimoni:
Temmie10 is back! And correct! The prospectus claims N15-16B. With a 25% oversubscription and the 900M shares in GDRs, you get 16B shares and a forward PE of 20

I have learned not to be too conservative about banks, they are capable of what some would call magic grin

Meanwhile that 88 pages i cannot read today o, but i have been keeping tabs on Union Bank too and i quite like what i see (for long term sha not exactly cico on this one)

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 3:27pm On Jan 22, 2008

yodiyokun:
Hmm, Based on this information the 10B PAT is already factored into the price, except they declare a whopping 9 months results that reduces their P.E

What are the odds of that happening??

FCMB's forecast PAT according to their prospectus was 16 billion , so i would regard that 10 billion PAT as being too conservative.

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 5:54pm On Jan 14, 2008

wanaj0:
Not sure why you considered it below expectation. 25% growth in PAT is not.

I know that most people did there calaculation based on equal quarterly profits. Abeg no be like that.

Like I said 28.00 is a fair price for NGC anything else na jara.

NFI is no longer exiting. Acquired by AIICO.

Thanks for the nfi gist.
ngc's reult is considered below expectation based on an optimistic view of their last results.
Sometimes that quarterly profit estimation hands u a money spinner, sometimes it doesn't.

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 5:42pm On Jan 14, 2008

easimoni:
I concur; a little below expectations. + No more news till June/July.

As previously stated, NFI Ins was de-listed today

easi
happy new year,
that NGC result is exactly as you put it, slightly below expectations.
Btw why was nfi delisted?

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 4:16pm On Jan 10, 2008

wanaj0:
@ all,

It is not the 'norm' for prices to rice after a PO. What is the reason for the rise? After all the excitement, we will return to the 'norm' when prices fall after lifting of Technical suspension. So beware!!! FCMB should have taught people some lessons.

Roughcut, institutional investors that partook of the FBN and Access offer got money refunded to them. That include those that participated as prefential investor. If one person applied for 50% of the total offer what is the person looking for? How much will they now allot to the others? For institutional investors that do not bid for a takeover, you negotiate with the owners and you get a private placement. That's what Actis did with Diamond. They did not enter via PO. Even with Intercontinental, the funds entered via supplementary offer and not the intial offer. Inter went to meet the fund managers to invest. Look at even the IBTC/Stanbic deal. It was discussed. Not one that someone will submit application for 50% of the total shares on offer. That immediately skewed the allotment process. If you have that amount of money and intesret, why not eneter into discussion and negotiate.

if you don't get HEART don't do short term trading. You will get HYPERTENSION. Most of you following Fatherof2's strategy don't know the kind of person he is. When FCMB was dropping after the lifting of TS and people were shaking, he was resolute. That means that he is willing to wait it through. Secondly he is not under 'pressure' to sell. Thirdly, he is well diversified with deep pockets. Fatherof2 is recommending First Bank you think he is planning to clean out in two weeks? He went into WAPCo you think he is talking about 2 weeks? If you don't tailor your strategy to your personality, you will soon be on the hospital bed. Fatherof2, please teach your students about risk in relation to age, size of porfolio, investment objective etc or else you go carry many dead body!!!!!!

On PO's I do PO's but I know those that will be oversubscribed and I did not bother. One rule about stocks is when every Tom Dick and Harry is buying a particular stock run away from it. By the time Tomato seller, Shoemaker etc are buying a stock what do you expect. It was written all over Dangote flour that it will be oversubscribed so I did not move near. For those buying Costain, just be checking your box for returned money. For AIICo anything above 50,000 units will likely have money returned. For Zenith, anything above 10,000 will surely face return money. So if I know that, I candecide to buy in multiple names (individual and as a corporate entity)

well said,
stanbic could have negotiated with access rather than gatecrash the offer like that.
anyone who doesnt tailor his investments to his risk personality does not need any warning, he will learn one way or the other.
Dangote flour, even for all its over-subscription and hype was a pretty expensive offer.

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 2:03am On Jan 05, 2008

iconbull:
@all
read through firsinland prospectus today.its juicy forecats p/e for april 2008 is 92kobo.at current mkt prc,forward p/e is 14.7. i am bidding big time on monday!

Please note that the eps calculations on the First Inland prospectus is very weird, almost bordering on fraudulent.
For 2008, eps has been calculated using only about 10 billion shares,
for 2009 and 2010, eps was calculated using 15 billion shares.
I wouldnt even consider any eps meaningful for first inland except it was calculated using the rightful 20 billion shares or more which the bank should have post offer.
the forecast also looks weird, with all the capitalisation expected from this offer exceeding 100 billion, only 9 billion PAT is expected in 2008 and then a giant leap to 25 billion in 2009.

Having said that i am actually buying some units, why? i have seen worse offers do better. There are a few positives that make the offer worth it despite the obvious discrepancies

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 10:51pm On Jan 04, 2008

pls does anyone have the electronic copy of first inland's prospectus? pls share o,

Nig-German is on an interesting move, just broke to a new all-time high (chartists, u dey see?), except its premature, i think we are heading for the 30s and possibly beyond , dun say u werent told.

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 11:03pm On Jan 03, 2008

Shig, Koksie, Gees, stanchuks
Wish u all a very prosperous year,
We predicted that the market would rise to current levels a few months ago, remember all the thesis and antithesis about insurance on these pages
i would only bail out if i had issues with the stock at its price or the stock met my target for that stock and i decided to take profit

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 9:49pm On Jan 03, 2008

FatherOF2:
Where is this uk guy em, Temmie10 i think.
its been long since i see the guy name.

baba ibeji
happy new year,
i was on holiday
jus got back today,
fortunately the market is currently on our side grin

regards to all

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 1:47am On Dec 18, 2007

yodiyokun:
@Temmie - long time.

Everyone is off on vacation - na wa o.

Anyway we will see you guys next year.

@shigidi - this is the link. It is not much but for me was sufficient to pull the scattered info I had together.

My sister, how are you?
i see you are fast charting the course of fundamental and technical analysis o, if i hit a stone in future analysis, i might just come look for u.

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 1:28am On Dec 18, 2007

Chokit i am very well thank u. London is cold but nothin out of the ordinary. But u are in good hands, fundamentally, technicaly n strategy wise. I am on holiday til wk1 +08 so would stil b missin 4 a while except sumthn major hzppns whch i dun expect. Uu cn Email me if anythi comes up. Hav a blessed christmas

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 1:59pm On Dec 13, 2007

aktopgun
Allow me to add my congrats,
BUy aiico for this december child o, cool

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 2:11pm On Dec 12, 2007

@shigidi
still run through the pages when i can. xmas don start to dey take in toll on me. I would be careful about buying dangote sugar at 38 even though its undervalued earnings-wise, most folks that would recommend dangote at 38 surely didnt buy at that price, if u buy at 38-40 range, what price will you exit?
Aiico's offer is tight.
the problem i envisage is that it will be grossly oversubscribed, they are only looking for 5 billion naira thereabout, thats 17 times smaller than what phb is asking for.
pumping, thanks for the link.

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 10:22pm On Dec 06, 2007

easimoni:
Make una read these articles on Business week. It's about the potential on the African markets, esp Naija. From the latest edition.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/07_50/b4062046700574.htm?chan=magazine+channel_in+depth

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/07_50/b4062052715835.htm

Who sabi Notore Chemicals and how we fit join the train?

see why i dun think that our exchange (which is less than the value of Mcdonalds) will crash.

@shigidi
jus wanted to sound u out. know u are out there

@windywendy
i was not joking in your own case o,

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 10:04pm On Dec 06, 2007

pumping777:
The problem is not with moving. That is not the game. These are not bad guys. They are just preferred customers. The problem is that we don't get to buy!!! Zenith sold only 1.3M units yesterday. a bid of 10M units on the floor for Zenith means you will be frustrated like the folks crying about Bank PHB today if you are trying to buy. I am still waiting for my 100k units.

You think the guys on this forum are the ones buying agleventis now?? Let me hear from those that bought yesterday and today.

silent folks, say hi once a while now

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 9:54pm On Dec 06, 2007

pumping777:
Yes o. This has been tested and verified with a wrong rumour on this thread. Na silent folks representing firms on this thread buying 10 million units of Zenith _{They know themselves}

I doubt anyone here can really move Zenith, that is a liquid stock and 10 million units of zenith even for the mtners is a lot.
, but just in case you are out there, i hail o
BUt yes, the illiquid ones are not that difficult to move,
Just look at what shigidi and windywendy have collectively done to betaglass

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 9:17pm On Dec 06, 2007

easimoni:
Yes O. If you show your cards on this forum, peeps will beat you to the punch.

windywendy:
Ah! see you! My broker will CHANCE your broker

I used to think the NSE was big enough for all of us but it seems folks from akoka with billions are drowning small fish like me out,
smiles and runs away

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