₦airaland Forum

windywendy:
I[b]t all depends on Her Royal Highness o! She's the commander in chief for now. If she says "jump", I say "how high" [/b] . And considering that i also have a full time job . . . _{infact let's leave that matter for now}. I'll do what I can sha.

By the way, Unilever? Sounds like a good turn-around play. I wonder why the market did not react to the results _{perhaps there's some suspicion}. But I'm kind of liking it. I'll be watching

At the end of the day, she's the prime beneficiary of all your profit cycles so she reserves that right to command abeg. I'm watching unilever too but its one of 4 or so in that frame that i am considering, nothing definite yet though, will let u know after i have bought, u know why now lol

@OLonzo
una welldone o, more grease

windywendy:
@ temmie10 how you dey? Still haven't had a chance to look at the bank phb prospectus, but from a quick perusal, it doesn't look bad. Will see if I get a chance to look at it this weekend.

I am fine, recapping what has been a very fruitful year, and rearing to go for next year while at that
Look at phb o,

windywendy:
@all:

For those who've been cycling in and out of IEI, I hope you've cycled out already . There are strong rumors of a potential suspension and share reconstruction, so unless you don't mind being reconstructed, I suggest you cycle OUT asap.

IEI is long overdue for a construction with their avalanche of shares,
BUt having said that its also been a major money spinner (chartist's heaven) in its own way this year.

@easimoni
thx for the latest addition to my easimoni album

ololufemi:
@ All,

My mu just received her Oceanic certificates. hope others on this forum have received their too.

I m still expecting mine to be delivered and we used the same postal address.

Beats my imagination

any helpful news on this.

Well, lets just say that if u and your mum all got at the same time, your family could potentially depress the price of the stock
thats a joke but i hope u see my point.

@yodiyokun
One small caveat
There's a million technical patterns with funny names. There's only one way to know which works.
Test any technical style you want to use first on wanaj0's spreadsheet over different periods of time to at least reduce your margin of error,
And yes its better when you can find a volatile stock whose fundamentals are actually sound, Then you can actually eat your cake and have it!

@roughcut
i hear you
its no point arguing on when or whether correction will happen,
During the so called bear market of this year, i still made a lot of money
Lets enjoy our gains on the NSE abeg, hw's zurich?

@yodiyokun
Honestly, i only use technical analysis mainly for stocks that i consider volatile, thats where the real money is, else your broker and the mechanics of NSE will frustrate your analysis when they either cannot get the stock at your buy signal

Diamond for instance is not volatile one bit so far, its been moving sideways, there is no trend in the last couple of months so its no point making charts/ studying patterns on it. Technical analysis detects trends, upwards or downwards,
what i do is, take a look at a 3 month chart of a stock and you can tell if its trending/volatile stock, u can do this on cashcraft as roughcut suggested, if its moving sideways, then concentrate on fundamentals and consider what can make it breakout either upwards or downwards.

But if its volatile, u can begin to work with it.
The volatile ones are where the money is, though fundamentals may say you nay sometimes,
Look at the 3 month chart for AP, NGC, Evans MED, Unity Bank, First Aluminium, and compare it with the 3 month chart for diamond, flour mills, there you will see what i mean by volatile/cyclical stocks,
Of course with TA, the time of getting out is even more important than when to get in.

cheers

crazyT:
@ Windywendy, Temmie10 and All


I noticed that Japauloil increment is minimum today i.e. 0.25%, is it time to bail out?
I bought it during the post PO and it has increased about 27% since last week.


So out or hold

if i were you, i would actually bail out, 27% in one week is not bad at all.
Someone else might hold because they think it would go higher but i would js get out, esp since the projected earnings do not really support the current price

windywendy:
That's exactly what I'm talking about! You can ride on it to generate cash for "much saner" investments.

[s]But Temmie10, why are leaking this secret for free?[/s]

Apart from the fact that Shigidi is a major pal,
sharing it wont affect my gains one bit,

Must say i like your investment philosophy tho, very similar to mine
, you understand that one size doesnt fit all,
Sometimes some investments are not sane, but because u understand the risk and mechanics, u buy the stock, make a huge chunk most times and then find an undervalued and sound cashcow to dump it on,

@shigidi
Try this: http://www.investopedia.com/university/movingaverage/

shigidi:
@ temmie10, please what is CSMA, 50-day and 20 day CSMA and what is it used for, i have been seeing it on a lot of analysis but don't know what it means . please hellppppp

For starters, any thing that ends with MA is a moving average.
IN Technical analysis, some chartists use specific numbers like 40 day moving averages, or 50 or 20 to determine the trend a stock is moving or to make an informed decision about when to buy or sell a stock.
Someone might say, i will buy when a stock goes above its 200 day moving average and sell when the 20 day average crosses the 50 day one downwards, a lot of it is subjective though.
its not absolute but you'll be surprised how many times they work, and because a lot of people use them, u can ride on them.
If i can find the right link, i'll provide it.

@texas543
please can u provide any link or any mo info to the mtn offer, ?
I'd love to go through what i can find, just in case i change my mind and decide to rob a bank here

@hbrednic
right here man

@yodiyokun
sometimes you read the reports and u get the feeling that the analyst knew exactly where he was going b4 he even did any analysis. All he has done is to manipulate the data to fit his purpose,
@easimoni
thanks a million!

windywendy:
I don't perceive Afribank's management as being credible. What happened with all that noise the former MD made as to the accounts being manipulated? The Management didn't even deem it fit to give an update on the issue. They manipulated the stock price from N9.1 to N11.51 and then went on suspension after releasing what seemed to be a fantastic result, with the hope of doing a PO. Later, it seemed like they saw that they could do more than N11.51, so they came up with all that blab about how they've decided not to do a PO anymore. Once again they released what seemed to be a fantastic result, manipulated the price to over N30 and then suddenly went on suspension AGAIN, saying that they've applied to do a PO YET AGAIN. They didn't even deem it fit to address the issue raised by the prior MD as to the credibility of the accounts, and didn't bother to tell what the outcome of the so-called investigation into the matter revealed. I'm not too keen on investing a company like that, if you ask me. Something seems fishy.

2008 projected eps is 80 kobp, why should i pay 25 naira today?
every other banking offer i have seen this year i have prefered, even fidelity
But analysts seem to love afribank offer as all the reports i have read have been singing songs of praise

pumping777:
Yes, some of these growth rates are just astronomical making it hard to say with so much certainty that a company stock is "expensive". Like you said, one interim result and everything changes by far!!

Imagine this. Costain Internation sold off their stake in Nigeria and touted this as a very deft move when I was reading through a document on their strategic plan.

Now check out the value of Costain in Nigeria Costain International won't consider that move so smart right now

When will the PEs of companies like Nahco or Japaul come to reasonable levels?? Folks just believe in some mega growh lurking (I don't) and are willing to pay these premiums.

Well said,
Though sometimes the share price premium of a firm forces the management to become more aggressive and innovative. Afterall the objective of a firm is to maximize share price.
In 2005, Wema bank officials came to the London stock exchange seeking institutional investment for odua's stake in the company as well as a 15 year trade credit agreement with an institutional partner.
I still have the power point presentation that Wema Bank did, their forecast eps for 2007 was 0.56, their half year eps is currently higher than that.
Yes not all the buying on the NSE can be justified but like WindyWendy said Japaul's contracts with Shell might compel some to not mind paying the huge premiums, maybe not you and i though.
About Costain, I am sure Diageo (parent company of Guinness) is in a similar position. The fact that we are an emerging market cannot be over-emphasized. Lets use Actis as case study. Actis bought 19% of diamond earlier this year, now i heard they amassing the GDR seriously. Check Actis history, they dont panic sell, rather than put themselves in a difficult position, they'd rather not invest at all. Most of their investments are not even listed, these are investments too big to be sold on the floor so theres no question of them depressing the stock, Also most of these hedge funds and private equity firms are hardly short termers.

@roughcut
i am not sure the correction if it does happen will be anymore dramatic than we have already seen
Yes the NSE is very highly leveraged but a stock exchange lives on leverage and borrowed funds everywhere in the world, there is a direct relationship btw the credit market and the stock exchange.
2ndly, return on capital employed by most companies listed on NSE is very high, average for banks is btw 20-25%. The Nigerian FGN bond officially gives the highest yield in the world i.e. Nigerian government pays d highest interest on bonds.
Thats why one minute u are buying wema at 6 which looks like a pe of 40 but the next minute it turns out you have just bought it at a forward PE of less than 6 with the impressive results,
Its the growth that is making people pay the high PEs.

model1780:
Tnx bro, what about GTB, did a trend analysis for the past 5 year, buying at the highest price in nov & selling @ d highest price in March the next year, the least return was in 2002 with 28.57%. Is there any other reason why one cannot buy GT bank now?

I honestly commend your trend seeking analysis.
But there is one fatal flaw here. A lot of technical analysts make this same mistake. Its called optimization.
It would have been impossible to consistently sell at the highest price in march.
How do u know what the highest price in march will be?
e.g what will be the highest price of gtb for thisdecember?, see where i am coming from?

Having said that, if what u meant was lowest price in march, u would well have a point and it could well be worth it as the fundamentals may just pick up.

cheers

RoughCut:
All you need to do on this forum is mention a stock and before you can say Bob's your uncle the thing moves out of the firing range kilode? Wetin man go do now

Redstar is a mystery. seems the shares are being recycled between 2-3 people and you can can't get a look in. Looks like those 2-3 peeps own about 90% na wa o!

And good luck with Bambino

i think theres a lotta very active silent readers,
show your face na

pumping777:
See wetin una don cause with CILeasing My Xmas turkey don fly compot

keep quiet o, see what ur broker has done to agleventis,

@model1780 and spice
Its not a crime to expect huge gains from the market in a short period of time, niether is it a sin.
You just have to understand that its potentially riskier than if you had a longer time frame.
Also you need to be ready to cut losses and move to the next best thing if the situation of things change.
I have a few suggestions on potential 25%s between now and March, for you based on today's closing prices,
but bear in mind that the risk is on you:

banking: Access, Diamond, Wema
insurance: Unic, MBenefit, Aiico
Others: First Aluminium, AGleventis, Berger, DNMeyer,

You need to keep a close eye on the market, FirstAluminium for instance is a great cyclical stock, its currently at 2, anywhere from 2.3 to 2.5 and above is a good exit point, if u play it right, u could even get less than 2 and go in and out a couple of times (the trading range could well change but thats y u should keep an eye on the market).
Diamond and Access should pick up soon, wema is on TS but its not rocket science to smell whats cooking.

[quote author=Rob-roy link=topic=31554.msg1743399#msg1743399 date=1196714700]I'm hearing all this positive news about UBA and Zenith and co. Is First Bank not aggressive enough to grow or is the "elephant" too big to pursue that mouse inside it's nest? The bank's website seems outdated, no Diaspora offerings, poor to non existent advertising for new customers etc. I know that they are making money servicing large debts and extending loans but the real money is in the 140 million customers, not the two or ten huge loans. Have they concluded talks with ETI or is that still in the works?

Wanajo, I know you are a staunch FBN party man, what makes you believe in them, why are they the largest part of yur portfoio?[/quote]i quite like fbn too.
i just think its really a case of your investing objectives with FBN.
Good consistent dividends (and bonus), very little risk, mature market player, sound and experienced management team, massive brand leverage, more than adequate capital base, as much liquidity as you want, you wouldnt be losing any sleep over fbn in a bear market, and the rate of return is anywhere from modest to excellent. Yes FBN wont go trippling but should yield more than acceptable returns year in year out, still very much a market leader
FBN have a subsidiary here in London so i wouldn't be needing a diaspora account,

shigidi:
@ EASIMONI, TEMMIE10, gtb PAT last year was 13bn, and so far they have grown 55%. thats already 20bn, i expect them tov hitbmore and get about 21bn, thats chow i got my forward pe of 18.7

i see where you're comin from,
its a bit tricky but it could well be worth it,
Sold my gtb a few months back at 33, that was part of the funds that i channelled to wema, one of the best investment decisions i made this year.

easimoni:
I have a GDR analyst's report that quotes 19.5B

even that still gives a forward PE of around 21,
very little upside if u are looking for a big move to profit from except they beat that 19.5

shigidi:
i would advice anyone with loose capital to go into gtb, at the price it closed at today its forward pe is only 18.7. don't forhet its year end is round the corner.
just my advice

whats your projected PAT for gtb?

pamit:
[i]Hi guys, I like your incisive analysis of the stock market, you guys have given some of us the impetus to go ahead and invest in the market.
I have a poser for you guys.I just started buying stocks last month,and I have the following stocks,5000 units of FCMB,5000 units of PHB,20000 units of Japaul,and 50000 units of Bagco. The value of all this stocks is just about 500,000 Naira.My poser is this,is it possible that I can trade with this shares and be able to make Two million Naira by June 2008?

I want to go do my Master's degree in September 2008 and it is going to cost me approximately Two mill, and I feel that the stock market should be able to pay for it.

I also intend investing another 300,000 in the next couple of months in the stock market.

So guys,is this feasible or just wishful thinking on my part?



@ Wola, I really appreciate your drive man and would like to check if I could help you with some scholarship info. Please tell me the course u read, and your BSc grade.
I was exactly in your shoes some 3 years ago, but I was able to get scholarship for my MSc programme. I started trading in the NSE with part of my scholarship money, and the rest today is history. I am willing to be of help to other Nigerians that need MSc scholarship info.

yes the u could have made 2 million naira from the market by june 08, u'll need to change your risk strategy tho to meet your objectives.

@ololufemi
Thanks for the news on Wema.
This is indeed good news. The timing of the offer seems to suggest that those buying the offer will not participate in the goodies of this current year.
Stil holding tight,
Pls keep the news coming from home soil, na right hand dey wash left and vice versa

ololufemi:
@ Damouche07

Heard from a reliable source that they will be credited in December i.e before the end of second week latest.

heard the same

darlous:
Can somebody help me out there?

I have up to three typed written stories; how will i go about it.
i need more info on the latest yoruba movie diretors, produers and editors.
How muh does it take to shoot a modern yoruba movie?

u came to the right place

@windywendy
Dun move the mkt too much with this stash of cash o
Personally i really like the phb po. i think its december's winner in terms of pos/pps.
BUt i'd appreciate if you helped scrutinize it

windywendy:
WOW! I'm gone a few weeks and look how this thread has expanded and changed Amazing. This is definitely a testimony to the talents we have in Nigeria. Keep the good work up guys!

What spreadsheet(s) is/are everyone talking about? @Pumping777 it seems there's one from you, and @Wanaj0, it seems there's one from you too. Please send me copies (email is windywendy121 at hotmail). _{Keeping up with the market is becoming more of a challenge these days . . .}

long time
missed your incisive analysis
hws the baby?

flakyy:
Good day to All you gurus in the house.


Please i need a software preferably online that can be telling me what i am worth at any point in time in my Nigerian Stocks

I tried to use a spreadsheet but it is so manual. I know with my 401k acct, once trading for the day is completed,
i can see my positions , how much i am worth, gain and loss and even a pie chart representation of my assets. Is there a broker that
has similar service or a software customised for naija i can buy.

Thanks

try this 2:
http://www.investordelight.com/
http://www.nigeriansecurities.com/index.php

u construct your portfolio and it takes on from there.
cheers