₦airaland Forum

@wanaj0

The issue of giving these kind of bonuses just create an opportunity for discerning shareholders to benefit.
Its no point arguing about corporate governance, we are in stocks to profit abeg.

By declaring bonus, investors have profited from the ability to sell aiico at a very good price and make good profits.
Will it affect the company in the long run? will they recover?

My answer is "If the shareholder is so pissed off about the bonus declaration, he should take his handsome profits and go and buy Nestle or Total".

[quote author=Mr. Risky link=topic=31554.msg1589462#msg1589462 date=1192549292]easimoni,
Where is it that 'bonus' don't mean anything? Is it in NYSE, LSE or NSE? To bring our discussion to reality, in NSE bonus mean EVERYTHING. Otherwise, how come it drives the prices in most cases beyond the roof? If Dangote Sugar was giving quarterly BONUS where do you think the price will be by now? True, bonus may mean nothing, but in NSE it is not seen that way. I think market psychology is also a factor to consider when trading in stocks![/quote]On paper a company does not need to be very profitable to give bonus.
However, in a nigerian setting, bonus is a huge psycological factor that influences stock price movement.
So both sides have a point. Even in a bearish market, a good bonus will still puch the stock price up like we have seen.

Fundamentally, bonuses are not good for the long term eps except a company can increase profits very well consistently (and some companies can do this). Easimoni has a point because many times the idea of bonus is abused in Nigeria i.e. when a company's profits are redusing and yet more bonuses are being issued.

In a Nigerian setting however, announcements of bonus sparks rallies and where there is no bonus, very little reaction occurs (the price may even take a beating) many times so you're right in saying that bonus carries weight

@shigidi
My brother i am fine, jus been a bit busy thats all.

shigidi:
its amazing how the market can act sometimes.
access was on net bid for two months,at 19 naira and after all the excitement with the ts been lifted ,it moves a bit and goes straight back to 19. i hope no one here bought at a premium. to think we were all saying it should hit 25naira this week. my bad.
still, at 19 naira, it looks very good going forward, would advise people to take position now, because it looks relatively cheap at this price.
and whats with intecontinentals sudden run.

Spot on. the market in the short term almost always seems irrational (the truth behind most huge movements only appear after the movements). remember when i said that First Inland would not take a beating for its pathetic result and the stock has held its own.

I think the folks who did the mopping up of the Access shares pre-po are vommitting what they took. I see Access shedding some more weight nevertheless it remains attractive going forward.

shigidi:
the recapitalisation of insurance coys has been cancelled. this is not good because the confusion in the insurance sector is going to continue.
i hear all mergers have been cancelled.

The smart money is still on Insurance. The big questions is 'when this plane will take off?'.
Many insurance companies are taking advantage of the favourable govt policy of underwriting for the oil and gas sector and the bottom line is already being impacted.
The impressive growths of 400-1000% profit increases in half year profit have happened without the release of the escrow funds. If this growth continues in the next quarter of their earnings, this sector will create a new batch of billionaires. The fact that Crusader, mbenefits, wapic, lasaco et al all posted exponential increases in earnings without reciept of the funds hints at the opportunity inherent in the sector.
The industry is still a gold mine waiting to happen. The trends of the next results released will indicate whether the growth is sustainable so i am looking at march 2008 onwards for the returns. Btw do you know that the Abbey society intending on listing on the NSE is 20% owned by Mutual Benefits. Some of the smarter md/ceos in insurance are pulling some major strings into making their firms fully fledged insurance firms with life and non-life assurance, oil and gas, asset management, medical insurance etc. I see more prospects in the sector abeg. The market will not react immediately but this is where one must definitely consider taking a significant position if one does not already have a stake (obtained at a reasonable price). The gap between insurance and banking is Nigeria is too Huge despite the fact that insurance is growing at an alarming rate. The economics of it will catch up eventually.
When the funds then get released, it can only create more value.

enurayce:
@ Easimoni and Wanajo,thanks 4 your response


Easimoni,temmie 10,wanajo and @ All
which 5 stocks below N4 will u reccomend for an immediate buy.Please all reply before i make any decison

Easimoni,temmie 10,wanajo and @ All
which 5 stocks below N4 will u reccomend for an immediate buy.Please all reply before i make any decison

Easimoni,temmie 10,wanajo and @ All
which 5 stocks below N4 will u reccomend for an immediate buy.Please all reply before i make any decison

Go get yourself Mutual Benefits.
You might have to wait 4-6 months but u'd be delighted you did.

wanaj0:
No totally true report.

No interim dividend was paid put final dividend of 15k per share.

Authorised capital was raised. Board also given approval to issue new shares (by rights, PO, merger). This was just o prevent them from calling another EGM to consider such issues again. Don't see them coming to the market at least not this year!

Interim dividend of 15k was recommended way back in May and now has been approved as the final.
the company had indicated that much earlier when they released their half year report

Syenite:
Believe it or not the fair market price of Access Bank is between N20 & N23.

It would have been N25 to N27(as been projected by most analyst) had it not issued a 1 for 4 bonus midway into its technical suspension period.

When they issued the bonus at the technical suspension price of 19.32 its fair market price was around N23 hence it was marked down to N18.92 which it remained till the IPO was over.This mark down was done middle of July which means that as at mid-July its fair market price was N18.92.

So can you see reasons why the fair market price is currently between N20 & N23.This also can be attributed to the bearish returns currently being experinced in the market.

So I can state here that Access Bank is currently trading at it fair market price.It might not rise beyond N24 within this short period of time.

But hey! Investment is a long-term thing any ways so relax no cause for alarm.I also bought heavily if you must know.So we are in the same ship.

Access issued a 1 for 4 bonus?
Nada.
Access has never given bonus before, ever before.
even the dividends they paid this year was the first time i can recall Access paying dividends in a long time

aksance:
it looks like crusader is about to come to the market for ANOTHER offer:
http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2007/09/25/2966027.htm

is it still advisable to go for this stock now, or wait for the offer?

The gist was in the guardian newspaper a few days ago.
Interesting developments there. The company's figures remain impressive in any case.

wanaj0:
WAPIC has always had an alliance with Intercontinental since Inter bought into them some years ago.

The audited financial statement for year ending Feb 2007 shows that they have 1Bn shares. Definitely, they've added more shares since then.

Its a con job being spinned by many companies on the exchange.
wapic did a public offer and rights issue totalling 1.25 billion shares in the same year they issued the audited statement you are talking about.

wanaj0:
Anyone with info on WAPIC?

Authorised share capital N3.5bn. Paid up as at Feb 2007 was N500m which translates to 1Bn outstanding shares. PAT for full year Feb 2007 was N700m which translates to an EPS of 70k. For a share whose price is less than 7.00 that is a PE <10.00. Except they've added new shares, that looks quite attractive.

Does anyone has more info??

Wapic is looking good not because of their eps but more because of the alliance with intercontinental bank and industry leadership, as well as profit margins.
wapic does not have 1 billion shares. they have grown their shares astronomically like most of their contemporaries out there. there is no insurance company on the nse with a pe of less than 10 currently (new results might prove otherwise), not in Nigeria currently.

@whitelexi
You bought aiico at 2.95, so no reason to fear (except you want to take profit and buy something else).
MBenefit at 3.25 should not give you sleepless nights.

@shigidi
Access is looking good. granted.
You'd do well to ask, why is there so much selling pressure on the stock just after the ts has been lifted though?

@whitelexi
what insurance stocks are u holding? what price did you buy them. That sector is not as general as it looks.

@alliednetw
the price of lasaco has been trading in the same range for about 5 months now.
So i dun subscribe to the gist that its becoming cheaper. There's not much new happening to lasaco.

the cosby show,
different world
the wonder years (anyone remember this?)

@stanchuks
hw body?
i know u've been undecided over your your transcorp and ngc for a while and i have answered u b4 on both.
There are not always absolutes in investments and the most important indicators are your objectives.
If the money is money you are putting away for over 1 year, you will do well to hold your ngc and transcorp

If however you feel uncertain about the market and are looking at a shorter term (which i think is the case) , you can consider locking in your profits on ngc. Fidelity is not the best public offer but selling at 12 naira to buy at 8 naira can hardly be faulted.
If i was looking at short term, i would have sold transcorp long ago.
Since you hav not sold it, why sell now when its at the lowest its been for a while?

kingzy:
@Temmie 10, Easimoni, Wanajo, Shigini and other gurus,
I bought oceanic @ 18.50 on the floor during PO. Should I sell now and buy another good potential stock (which one)or is oceanic still a good short term stock? Is there any impending bonus and what ratio, not interested in dividend. Though I just bought some units of crusader. Please I need your answer urgently.Thanks

Be careful not to offload your oceanic and go and buy a loser sha o (many losers out there in the short term currently).

easimoni:
The SEC stated the rule had always been there. They chose to "re-emphasize" it a couple of weeks ago. I wonder when they'll actually start to apply it.

Anyway, if they keep all of the proceeds, we are looking at a total of 22.2B shares and a forward PE of 40.

If oceanic indeed has 22 billion shares, then its clearly overpriced.
I checked their prospectus again and if they do not beat their ambitous forecasts, they will remain overpriced even after 2008 earnings.
Besides, it would be interesting to see if those who bought the last public offer will partake of dividend/bonus

easimoni:
Oceanic's Article

http://businessdayonline.com/National/438.html

Is the SEC going to allow them to keep all of the extra N125B? I thought they said 25% oversubscription only.

I would expects sec's rule not to be backdated to include oceanic and co who had their offers way before the rule came into place

@stanchuks
Selling part of your ngc to buy japaul makes sense because u'll lock in on the profits you've already made on ngc and also cash in on another good opportunity via japaul.
Fidelity? Hmmm, thats not a bad idea too because i assume you've made profit on fidelity at the current price. cashing in on another 33% gain via the public offer makes sense too.
2 good moves,
cheers

@yodiyokun
there's a lot of information in the market. at any point in time, we only know very little.
First inland is shopping for a way to shore up their funds (possible merger, foreign investor or public offer, all these is good news for the market).
The bank was ranked among the 5 biggest banks in nigeria and among the 1000 biggest banks in the world by the same london based magazine that made intercontinental look good.
So i don't see the share price taking too much of a beating, and yes, the markets are irrational, extremely irrational and markets can remain irrational longer than one would expect.
Case in point: First Aluminium's loss after tax increased by more than 100% and the share price is still selling at a huge premium.

@easimoni
Had a week that was as busy as it could be.
But i have been dropping in at anytime i can to learn from u guys.

Btw what you can lose with wema is nothing compared to what you can gain o. HOLD.

The first inland bank result was poor (PAT of 2.6billion) and there were issues with it.
It seems the shareholders funds fell short of the 25 billion minimal requirement by CBN
But it doesn't look like doom for the share price though.
the share price shouldn't take too much of a beating.

@easi

Its funny to think that anybody still believes that wema's eps is 0.08. Of course it is miles past that even by their outdated results

@roughcut

NO, i am talking about the value of the trades not the number of shares.
36m naira yestada,  216m naira today(21m units)

@roughcut
u're right. 216m naira today as against 36m naira yestada.

@yodiyokun
sad as it sounds, me thinks a professional statement cook is exactly what transcorp needs at this time. They have to find a way to restore condifence and belief in the company (at leat in the short term).

@mypeace
those two cashcraft funds are 2 new mutual funds that are being launched by cashcraft. the forecasts which might not be met are not ambitous, don't look good except you really are happy with a relatively low return. You'd be better much better off if all you did was listen to easimoni, wanaj0, shigidi, frank, roughcut et al.

akinalabi:
Tips for today

Man Utd bt Roma

Inter Milan bt PSV

Sevilla bt Slavia Prague

£100 to return £300

Akin

thats a cool 300 for u thr

The tricky thing about japaul is that eps increases (07), decreases (08) and then increases again (09).
10 naira plus after 2009 fye is very possible according to the forecasts, its possible in 2008 too but that would be largely optimistic

@pangolo
We are yet to see phb and afribanks' prospectuses.
I am quite happy with japaul's offer though.


@krisbobo, jehosaphat
thx for the compliments

Easimoni answered you about guiness and i second him. Dividend declaration doesn't move prices like bonus declaration, the market is also rather bearish.
I won't advice anyone to put all their $$ in wema but some exposure is good, the ceo says results will be out by november.

In any case if you have cash now, dun jump into any stock yet, watch the market and you might find even better bargains in the next 1-2 weeks.

[quote author=Rob-roy link=topic=31554.msg1541765#msg1541765 date=1191035578]Hello all
Is PHB coming out with a PO? Ive noticed a steady climb in its shares,
Whats the analyst take on that? what about WEMA?[/quote]Yes PHB is supposed to come out with a po soon.
Wema's a winner for me.

About these pos, i was reading that fcmb and afribank might both open up their po next week, thats gonna be 200-300 billion being searched for, then thr's a long list after them again.
If you'll be buying into any pos, make sure you are buying a really good one.

Panadol:
All,

What's your take on these 4 banks.

1. Diamond
2. FCMB
3. Skye
4. Wema

I like all four, at least in the next 6-9 months and bearing any unforseen situations.

just read the fidelity prospectus.
The bank will have 22 billion shares! and thats if there's no over subscription
And to think the offer was supposed to go at 10 naira earlier, what were they playing at?

Its not cheap o but the psycology of selling something 8 naira when its currently pegged at 12 naira will assure them a good number of people buying the offer, not me.

Someone pls tell me if arsenal have won anything in the last 3 years? trophyless boys looking for a CHEAP BLOW. WIN SOMETHING NOW.

Wasn't the ref biased when chelsea got a draw against liverpool,

United fans, abeg leave this poster alone jo