₦airaland Forum

abduljabbar4:
We are talking about the inconsequential east that thinks their voting pattern matters in a Nigerian election. Read your post again

You this brother stop this denigration. The easterners have always been the allies of conservative north from independence while SW the opposition. Only in 2015 did the unusual happen where positions were swapped.!
Igbos are your allies! Anyway, their votes do matter and they will once again in 2019!
Buhari is a fluke victory that has made many of his fans lose sense of history via bigotry!

CilicMarin:
Initial Gra, Gra. APC will just reverse itself and accept one of the initial primaries conducted before..

With this I now understanding why you are a buharideen! Chai chai pitch poor Comprehension.

CilicMarin:
Submission of names ends on the 18th.

You sure is poor with Comprehension!

MrRichmond:
I really want his vice to come from south east too so that it will pepper Tinubu and his zombie gang

but let's be realistic.. the mathematics is not on the side of the east.

Can SE assure Atiku that their votes will be sufficient to send him to Aso Rock.

I would've really loved this, but my guy, this is politics and politics is mostly a game of maths.

The Igbo votes are not only in the SE but across the nation. That 6m voters of kano has significant number of igbos.
The VP will be SE very likely Peter Obi.

abduljabbar4:
Remove all of the votes Buhari got from those regions. He would still be the president so you can keep your useless 5%

Good, then add 15% to gEJ/pdp votes of 2015 in the north then see #BuhharitoDaura2019 clearly.

Bolustical:
Igbo votes can never be enough for anything, ask Bashir Tofa, GEJ and Jimi Agbaje.

It's all about barking so much and biting nothing.

Except for likes and shares on Nairaland, tell me where their votes have ever counted.

Political liabilities lasan lasan

It Counted in winning for MKO,OBJ,Yar addua,GEJ and now Atiku. You sound like very short on political History!

CilicMarin:
Remove Kwara and Sokoto( Buhari has been winning this state, irrespective of the party in power since 2003)

You don't get it! Buhari won only in 2015 with help across the nation . He will be thrashed next year cos he has failed and the political class have abandon him!

SternProphet:
You are not being honest my friend. Buhari will never lose the North.
Even El Rural for all his progressive/ controversial policies won't lose the governorship race. What will eventually push the North into Buhari's hands is the SE support for Atiku and I say it, be very careful with statements and control your enthusiasm.
Once the North perceives Atiku as the SE candidate they will take the exact opposite direction.

A big handicap for Atiku is Governors. Even PDP governors. Without governors, you are not winning elections. Buhari has almost 85% of governors working for him.

Also, to win elections in Nigeria you need to win the NW & SW votes but PDP has foolishly made Tambuwal lose to Atiku. They will pay the price and it will hurt.

People have to realize that it is a game of chess. In any case, I don't see Buhari losing. There are enough "incentives" going to poor people all over to swing the elections.

Atiku is nigeria's candidate that will be Nigerian president while Buhari is an ethnic champion that has been nepotistic in govt! Thank God we all can see that buhar,i is essentially banking on his ethno-religious northern base to win but, forget that 2003,2007 and 2011 they couldn't win it for him. It took help from the so called kudu/arne for him to win in 2015.

CilicMarin:
Vulnerable you say? Three PDP states were snatched by the APC, and you call it vulnerable? how old are you?

Childish! Kwara,sokoto and Benue have been snatched with the NASS yet, you can't see. Well it is difficult for a blind Person shaaa!

abduljabbar4:
i can equally say you are cocky about atiku because you are an ipoop sympathiser.

I think im getting tired of your rants. Lets see how irrelevant people like saraki will drive pdp to power and try to remember how a lion was turned into a whimpering chicken. Remind me the last time fayose insulted Buhari

You are the ranter and stop calling people who are different from you IPOB, it negate civil discurse. Imagine if I start calling you names for your political view!b

CilicMarin:
The same analysis failed you in Kogi, Edo, Ondo, Ekiti and Osun, yet you won't give up!

Haba!

Stop using staggered elections as your conclusive basis. The general elections of 2019 will shock you guys.

Edo,ondo,ekiti,Osun kogi Elections actually showed how vulnerable apc is!

abduljabbar4:
Atiku isnt even that popular in Adamawa. Our brothers just make assumptions and believe in them. One fool yesterday was saying that Atiku would win Osun because his wife is from there. Seriously

Atiku will win Adamawa! And had kwankwaso won the ticket,he would have won kano!
You people are overrating buhari!

Only NW is safe for buhari ooooo. Don't use zaria or the rest of NW as the reflection of the entire north oooooo.

Buhari's cult followership is largely a north Western thing.!

abduljabbar4:
Lol

im actually living in Kaduna and i am from Zaria so slow down. Its true that el rufai has lost some amount of popularity but most of the people i know were banking on Ramalan who lost the primaries and most people(the ones i know and the ones i see on tv and radio stations) prefer el rufai to attahiru. Buharis popularity is just as solid as it was in the past.

In that same Kwara that you are talking about, i have friends there and i will ask them some time but even with that, rilwayne and demzie would have talked about it if the situation is like the way you are painting it to be. Like i said, NC can go either ways while the SW, NE and NW are guaranteed For Buhari. If you have been to Kano and just tried a mini sampling you would know how much people hate Atiku in the north. As in real hatred. Even Kwankwasiyya fans (who are obviously more in number than Atiku's supporters) would rather go for Buhari than Atiku even if Kwankwaso himself endorsed atiku. Thats why i was scared of kwankwaso during the pdp primaries. What a relief!

Very good I knew you must be based in NW for you to be cocky about buhari. Buhari even with sak of 2015 had 7.1m to 1.3m in NW, the margin will decline in 2019.

I repeat saraki will deliver kwara 100% to pdp and if apc will anything, it will be only my LG.

Kaduna is clearly a battleground for 2019.

Bauchi is threatening protest vote cos most definitely the apc will lose the state in guber.

To upturn buhari's 2.5m marginal victory Of 2015, pdp only need to flip 1.251m votes all things Equal.

Buhari has lost more than 5m votes since 2015!

abduljabbar4:
Okay, so are igbos the only ones in the south east? you guys keep forgetting everything you say also applies to you. The north east from my little observation is going to give a lot more votes to Buhari. You dont know what ending boko haram means to them but i dont blame you cos you live in the south and you have no idea.

Maybe this thread of ours will help you make less noise cos WE WILL MOCK YOU GUYS just like your unfortunate 'ancestors'. I have added you to my list.

https://www.nairaland.com/2273958/digging-out-tanoids-season-1

Make sure you check other seasons

I am a full blooded northerner and my state. (kwara) and region NC is pdp lockdown. 2015 was a first time gamble on buhari that has turned terribly wrong! 2019 is year of correction of 2015 error.

Kaduna state where I am right now is very fluid. Elrufai Likely to be defeated and buhari can't get 60%+. Zamfara is threatening protest vote. Sokoto,kano and jigawa will be exciting!
Need. I say more?
#BuharitoDaura2019 irreversible!

abduljabbar4:
From 2015 to date its pdp that has always been the noise maker. We let the polls do the talking. As you can see no northerner has agreed with your guess work yet

How do you Know That? Buharideens think they are the Only northerners and that Northern Nigeria is monolithic by Religion and tribe, Wrong!

I am not looking for validation rather I am informing you. Only NW with declining margin is save For Buhari.
You Clearly Ain't in tune with happenings individual states !

abduljabbar4:
rabu da su kawai. Su suna ganin kaman indai mutum dan Arewa ne to zai iya kada Buhari ko kuma ya samu 50%. Ai ko ka cire NE sai dai ya samu 50% a North central. Atiku is not going anywhere

Continue in your self deceit. 2019 you will be shocked by the votes atiku will get even in katsina!

Buhari of 2019 is not the masqueraded messiah but, a tried and tested incumbent with a monumental failure!

abduljabbar4:
Sarakis popularity hasnt been tested yet and there is no way you can be sure that he can deliver anything. Even your oga fayose was disgraced despite all his seeming popularity(this is the mistake i made, sorry)

Buhari had never won a presidential election but he did in 2015 so your statement on nassarawa is childish. He wasnt beaten by a wide margin in the last election if i can remember well. I also urge you not to place too much expectation on benue and plateau. He is likely to be beaten, yes but it could be just a 60-40 defeat. You cant tell

Don't talk much February 16th Is near

abduljabbar4:
On what basis will atiku SURELY (lets assume the unlikely event of him winning in Adamawa) win Bauchi, Taraba and Gombe? What are your reasons?

I agree that Plateau amd Benue will go for him. Can you tell me why he will win in Kogi, Kwara(where saraki has been disgraced) and Nassarawa? There must be some factors. If you have none then you are in no position to give him automatic victory

Who disgraced saraki in kwara? You can bank it saraki will deliver kwara 100% to pdp.Where ever kwara goes kogi goes!

Buhari has never won nassarawa and he won't win in 2019.
Benue and plateau will be landslide!

By the way, I am a Nigerian who happened to come from kwara. A Josite,abusite and traverse nigeria.

Mohayaks:
i am from bauchi and atiku cannot get even 20% , infact only 1 in 10 people can vote atiku lol

You sure is Limited in political horizon marking! PdP will win bauchi!

abduljabbar4:
NE including adamawa will never vote atiku cos Buhari ended or at least greatly minimized their greatest nightmare: Boko haram while Atiku has never showed any sign of influence in Adamawa (counter me with facts)

As for NC, it can go any direction as you cant tell. Atiku only has guaranteed victory Benue and plateau. Prove me wrong. ina jiranka

Let me breakdown for you:
Atiku/pdp to win adamawa,taraba,gombe and bauchi. He will equally do very well in borno/yobe.

NC: kwara,kogi,plateau,nassarawa,benue are sure banker. Atiku/pdp only Niger might go buhari/apc!

abduljabbar4:
Whose son is this? Total aggregate in NE/NW?

You need to get some blood pumped into your brain. The op and i are northerners unlike you

Sannu ko. What makes you More northern than me or even old enuff to be my mate?
Anyway, except you are holed up in NW, the NE/NC are atikulated!

QuotaSystem:
Unfortunately you failed to discount for the electoral strength of the regions. SE & SS combined are just 15 million voters strong (assuming 100% turnout).

Even with the 60% victory you've accorded to Buhari in the NW, that's 11 million votes already from the North west alone which has neutralized the entire votes of the SE (7 million) and over half of the SS votes which are Atiku's only strongholds. Remember that with Oshiomole, Amaechi, Akpabio et al the SS will be shared with President Buhari.

With a SE VP, just forget the southwest as Atiku will struggle to get 25% in most of the SW States which adds another possible 10 million votes to Buhari's kitty.

For the reasons I stated, PMB will also sweep the NE but I don't expect a fact-lacking person to agree. In fact, we haven't even accounted for federal might and the extra million votes PMB will get in Boko haram freed regions where people couldn't vote in 2015 due to PDP's corruption and incompetence in battling the insurgency .

The only states where votes will be significantly shared are the 4 states in the NC already mentioned. Clear victory for PMB to the discerning.

2019 is pregnant .

Buhari had his best showing in 4 presidential attempts in 2015.

Upon the SAK in the north and voters apathy in the SE, Buhari won only marginally with 2.5m votes.

The current realities are that;
SS/SE remains deeply anti Buhari on the streets.
Kaduna state is currently a swing State, kano won't be 1.9m to 200k of 2015 cos the kwankwosiyya will do decent damage!
Jiggawa,zamfara anddd sokoto are clearly in play.

NE will be won by Atiku adamawa,taraba,bauchi,gombe are set to go pdp.

NC is kwara,kogi,nassarawa,benue,plateau are safe pdp only Niger is looking apc.

Overall, Atiku will do better than GEJ did in the north. The effect of defections is net gain PDP.

#BuhariToDaura2019 irreversible!

QuotaSystem:
On what basis?

Based on what political structure?

How many wins has he recorded in Adamawa in the past? Lol.

Atiku hasn't been a loser in Adamawa in any election on a major party's ticket. 1999,2003 VP to OBJ.
The AC adventure was a renegade thing in 2007.
2019 Atiku/PdP will win total aggregate votes in NE/NC. He will win landslide SS/SE while being competitive in SW. Only NW will he be limited to 30 to 35 Percentage showing!

Atiku is the incoming president!

obaataaokpaewu:
But the same Tambuwal chickened out like a lady too before? Fayose should go and sit down. If you have supported Dakwambo or Sule Lamido we would have seen reasons with you.

Or makarfi sef. Well it is the immediate post primary election disappointment reaction. It is human.

MartinsD12:
OK no problem he should stop threatening to leave, infact this time around pdp made history and Nigerians are happy for a peaceful transparent presidential primary and fayose want to make noise as usual him no fit pour sand for our garri na, this is what he did in ekiti primary to cause pdp to lose by imposing his candidate, this time around him and wike did not succeed, fayose should just take time o

Naso

MartinsD12:
Fayose has no political value having lost ekiti to fayemi, he is only good in social media sharing of kpomo, no problem he should leave

He has value abegi he must not leave. Everyone matters!

ashcall:
he bought.vote buying is a crime

Hehehehe eyah

ORIENTATION101:
get your facts right
atiku contested under ACN
Buhari contested under ANPP IN 2007

BUHARI RECORD 6,605,299

ATIKU RECORD 2,637,848

Please don't make me sound professorial ; AC and ANPP were both opposition contesting Against PDP in 2007!
Hope that helps.

ORIENTATION101:


atiku win north east

wait self since atiku and buhari have been contesting in presidential election under different platforms has atiku ever won buhari in

North west region and North east region??

Wrong analogy Atiku never contested against buhari in a general election!

senatordave1:
I thought you will say atiku will win gombe and bauchi.if your honest to yourself,apc will likely win gombe except atiku wins

You can bank it, PDP will win the governorship in taraba,gombe,adamawa and bauchi.

senatordave1:
Tuniski knows nothing afterall.even a mad man knows that atiku will win win only adamawa and taraba narrowly.states like bauchi,borno,yobe only knows buhari.

I am sure you thought Atiku can't even win the PDP's ticket. Well he won by landslide.

By the way, Atiku has never been the main challenger in any presidential elections up until now.
2019 you will see the combine might of PDP and the relative strength of an Atiku that has always been a one man riot squad.
Like I always tell you, you will learn some new political lessons.

I quite understood your limited perspective.

Atiku is the next president of nigeria!

donphilopus:
If someone like OP happens to be an SA, he would confuse his principal and his naivety would cause his principal his reelection.

Now let me reteach you what you've failed to understand. In 2015, GEJ from the South South was in the ballot against Buhari and elections didn't take place in most parts of the South South. Votes were allocated and Jonathan had 1milllion plus votes in Delta and Rivers States and had 900k plus in Akwa Ibom.

Today, it's a different ballgame entirely. It's a Muslim against Muslim! Fulani against Fulani! PDP won in Edo State in 2015 which won't repeat itself this year. Over Oshiomole's dead body. In Delta APC has the likes of Omo Agege in the ballot and other politicians like Uduaghan. Even if Atiku would win here, it should be on 65:35 basis.

Only a kid would think PDP would secure the 900k plus votes they got in Akwa Ibom in 2015. And only a foolish person would think Akpabio would work against the interest of APC when he would have been promised the Senate Presidency should Buhari win reelection. It's going to be a do-or-die affair in Akwa Ibom.

What Wike did in Rivers in 2015 cannot be repeated in 2019 rather it'd be reciprocated if Buhari allows such to happen. So expect a Buhari victory in Rivers or a narrow margin victory.

I don't wanna talk much about the Southeast because I'm so certain aside Enugu, APC is sure of at least 35% of the total votes in the whole of the Southeast and considering that the turnout will be low, it's a plus plus for Buhari.

FYI, Saraki cannot deliver Kwara for Atiku. It's Buhari all the way in Kwara State. If you doubt me, screenshot this page. Buhari would only lose Benue and Plateau in the North Central.

Even the so-called Atiku's Northeast would be won by Buhari. Aside Adamawa and Taraba, please can you name where else Atiku would win?

PS Northwest is a no-go area. Buhari doesn't need to campaign in the Northwest for him to win Atiku there.

In Yoruba land, there's no way an average Yoruba person will prefer an Atiku/Obi ticket to that of Buhari/Osinbajo. They all know it's coming back South and they are favoured to clinch it in 2023.

You tried but realities are not exactly like you painted.

Once the election has buhari on the ballot, APC will lose landslide in SS/SE. The streets there deeply are against buhari couple with the monumental failure he has become.

NC/NE with Atiku's candidacy is safe for PDP.

SW is 50:50 and should Atiku deepens the restructuring debate, he would win it.

Buhari is left with NW albeit with declining margins in states like Kano,Kaduna,jigawa,sokoto and the rest.
Atiku is the incoming president!