₦airaland Forum

Spirit04:
lol put money. There's no conspiracy anywhere. it's a wish not a reality.

There's a supremacy battle going on with regards to whom will take the presidency in 2031. Ganduje, Shekarau, Kwankwaso all want to show who is who in Kano. Wamako and Tambuwal involved in the same in Sokoto. El Rufai wants to be president in 2031 Atiku winning will first of all destroy his relevance and reputation since he lost in his own state and how will he even compete with Tambuwal and Shekarau if he cross? Same in Yobe. Buni wants to contest. Bala Muhammad also want to contest. Go and check their age and add 8 years to it you will see the game plan.
They want both Atiku and Buhari gone at the same time so that they can shine. After Tinubu there will be no question if the presidency should go North or south. That was why they were adamant during the primaries. Even Buhari has seen the Northern governors game after the Kano rally that's why he suddenly decided to join Tinubu campaign so that Northern governors don't humiliate him again as they did in the primaries. Atiku sef has seen the reality that's why he's no longer wasting money on campaigns. Look at the tone of people like Dino and Reno you will see that reality has set in. This election will be the most one sided election in Nigerian history

the only people that will vote for APC are the foolish religious fanatics. Therefore, the number of votes Tinubu will get will determine the number of fools we have in this country.

Spirit04:
lol I'm not a supporter of APC. If Wike had won PDP primaries I wouldn't even be talking about APC at all. Osun election showed that APC have largely retained its base. They couldn't even win in 2018, they had to reschedule and yet only won by a few votes even when they were fully united. If Aregbesola didn't fight with the governor they would've maybe replicated the same results. I don't know why you people like referencing Osun but ignore Ekiti

we are not talking about Ekiti because Tinubu is not from Ekiti.
Even Atiku didn't campaign for the PDP candidate in Ekiti.

Spirit04:
lol put money. There's no conspiracy anywhere. it's a wish not a reality.

There's a supremacy battle going on with regards to whom will take the presidency in 2031. Ganduje, Shekarau, Kwankwaso all want to show who is who in Kano. Wamako and Tambuwal involved in the same in Sokoto. El Rufai wants to be president in 2031 Atiku winning will first of all destroy his relevance and reputation since he lost in his own state and how will he even compete with Tambuwal and Shekarau if he cross? Same in Yobe. Buni wants to contest. Bala Muhammad also want to contest. Go and check their age and add 8 years to it you will see the game plan.
They want both Atiku and Buhari gone at the same time so that they can shine. After Tinubu there will be no question if the presidency should go North or south. That was why they were adamant during the primaries. Even Buhari has seen the Northern governors game after the Kano rally that's why he suddenly decided to join Tinubu campaign so that Northern governors don't humiliate him again as they did in the primaries. Atiku sef has seen the reality that's why he's no longer wasting money on campaigns. Look at the tone of people like Dino and Reno you will see that reality has set in. This election will be the most one sided election in Nigerian history

Gone are the days that Governors decide who to be voted for.
The real voters are the people that spend 48 hours queuing for fuel
The real voters are the people that cannot be able to afford one mudu (Kongo) of rice
The real voters are the students who wasted a whole year in their carrier
The real voters are the students who use to buy indomie 20 Naira but today they are buying at 150.
The real voters are those people that buy fuel at 500 naira per litre.
Can a reasonable person que for 48 hours looking for fuel then wake up and go to vote for APC?
Can the students who were forced to extend their program by almost 2 years go to vote APC?
Can a reasonable students buy one indomie fo 200 naira then go to vote APC? What the cooking gas, what of the travellers on our high ways that had to write their will before embarking on journey.
Even Katsina where Buhari come from will regret voting for APC.

Spirit04:
lol put money. There's no conspiracy anywhere. it's a wish not a reality.

There's a supremacy battle going on with regards to whom will take the presidency in 2031. Ganduje, Shekarau, Kwankwaso all want to show who is who in Kano. Wamako and Tambuwal involved in the same in Sokoto. El Rufai wants to be president in 2031 Atiku winning will first of all destroy his relevance and reputation since he lost in his own state and how will he even compete with Tambuwal and Shekarau if he cross? Same in Yobe. Buni wants to contest. Bala Muhammad also want to contest. Go and check their age and add 8 years to it you will see the game plan.
They want both Atiku and Buhari gone at the same time so that they can shine. After Tinubu there will be no question if the presidency should go North or south. That was why they were adamant during the primaries. Even Buhari has seen the Northern governors game after the Kano rally that's why he suddenly decided to join Tinubu campaign so that Northern governors don't humiliate him again as they did in the primaries. Atiku sef has seen the reality that's why he's no longer wasting money on campaigns. Look at the tone of people like Dino and Reno you will see that reality has set in. This election will be the most one sided election in Nigerian history

I was thinking people like you are supposed to learn from the Osun election but since you cannot reason rationally then I am sorry I can't help you.

senatordave1:
They will rather vote obi than atiku.by the way,prices of goods has always increased.it is not peculiar to apc.check from 1999

increase by 400%? Mr man go listen to people in the market, filling stations, and motor parks. Infact no reasonable human being will consider voting for APC with the way the country is.
Mind you, I was a die hard supporter of APC but for now me and millions of my people say bye bye to APC.
Only a foolish religious fanatic will vote for APC.

senatordave1:
Are you ok at all? Buhari never won the whole 19 northern states how will atiku win? Always reason with common sense.highest atiku will win is 9 northern states.he won't get 25% in 4 northern states.tinubu is the next gcfr

so you think a reasonable human being will sleep on the que with all this cold because he is looking for fuel will wake up to go and vote for APC?
Some students were supposed to graduate last year but they have to extend their program to next year and they will still go and vote for APC?
No reasonable human being will buy one mudu (Kongo) of rice 2000 and still vote for APC.
People are buying fuel 500 naira per litre and they will still vote for APC?
Look at the cooking gas,do you know how much is 1 kg?
Majority of students that eat indomie were buying indomie at 20 Naira but today they have to buy it at 150 naira, will those students still vote for APC?
Majority of Christians like me that voted for APC in 2015 and 2019 will not vote for APC in 2023.

4mable:
Even if He praises the south east from now till eternity or picks an Ibo man , do u think they would vote for Him? Though Am sure He was quoted out of context, but one thing is certain, Tinubu can never win any state in the South East, even if am 100% sure He would emerge winner of the election with a landslide victory.

you are dreaming. So people that sleep on the que everyday because of fuel will wake up go and vote for APC?
Students that were supposed to have graduated this year but has to extend till next year will vote APC?
So majority of Nigerians who cannot afford to buy one mudu (Kongo) will still vote for APC.
Mr man, not everyone is tribalistically foolish like you.

senatordave1:
You lie.buhari got 8 million in ne/nw.highest atiku can get is 5 mil.buhari got 2.4 mil in nc.as it stands,atiku will lose to tinubu and obi in nc since obi is taking his votes.highest he will get is 1.2 mil.
Atiku will win aks and delta narrowly.he will get 25% in bayelsa,osun and crs.but he won't get it in rivers,Edo,Oyo.he won't make it in borno,yobe,zamfara,kwara.he won't get the spread.

Atiku is winning the whole 19 northern states. Atiku only need 25% from 5 southern states. And if Atiku and Tinubu go for re-run Atiku will win. Therefore, Atiku is already the incoming president.

Anticultism:
This is his picture

good one there.

julaion:
I did my nysc in the north last year,majority of my Hausa and Fulani friends are all voting for obi

hahahaaaa �, you are talking with a northerner that has participated in politics fo more than 20 years.

boldtruthalways:
Check the account that posted that rubbish, it doesn't have a blue thick rather white thich which confirms its fake account. No propaganda to give P Square or Obidients bad name will ever prosper. P Squares real account has a blue thick on it ..check it out. Those who use Twitter knows people create fake accounts with same name of someone to post rubbish on the person's name. Don't be deceived
Real obidients dont insult anybody same with Obi. You can never see him insult anybody. All we want is a good and prosperous Nigeria. That's all. Let's leave propaganda. It will not do us any good.

even p square is not denying the account, but unknown gunman like you is defending what is obvious.

ibkayee:
Aboki isn’t inherently an insult but it is often used in a derogatory context to refer to northerners and he was clearly using it in this context

and wha is stupid? Is it an insult or not?

PrinceOfLagos:
Aboki is not insult

Go ask the meaning of aboki, it's not insult

even stupid is not an insult abi?

Oladelepsy001:
It's obvious Bala Mohammed joined them as a spy for Atiku , but no going back on Southern president, after all, Atiku pulled out of Pdp with G5 northern governors to spoil the election for Jonathan, it's payback time for him too..Atiku will only try but won't get the power he want to kill himself for.

hmmmn are just children in the politics of this country. Do you know that the north is tactically coming together for Atiku?

One thing I like about Atiku is that he is a silent achiever. You cannot see Atiku engaging in noise.
I was telling some children in politics yesterday that it took only a 35 seconds called for Tambuwal to step down for Atiku. The whole North will fall on line when it is 24 hours to the election.
Traditional leaders, ex generals and religious leaders will do the work for Atiku in the north.
Tinubu is busy dishing out money to politicians who have no say in the north. Tinubu should go and ask GEJ how far.
Even Buhari home state is for Atiku. If Buhari is not in support of Atiku, emir of Daura wouldn't have endorsed Atiku publicly.

Kayyy:
Bros sorry, you need to have a look at your mathematics, at 100% turnout, Tinubu already has the 15million you gave Obi from just 2 regions, what is the 30% of 22,670,000 for north west alone ? do your maths, what is the 50% of 18,000,000 alone for the south west region ? , Do the same for the north east, north central and other region and you will that Tinubu is getting over around 30million already, even Atiku has more numbers than your candidate as well, not say I support this percentages but using your own yardstick your candidate is still loosing

Iam for Atiku and with that postulation, you should know that Atiku is winning comfortably.

senatordave1:
Se gave atiku bloc votes in 2019,they csn give obi 3-4 mil.atiku needs bloc votes because even tinubu will get bloc votes from sw and borno/yobe.the north will be divided and this means atiku can win north or lose north narrowly.with emergence of obi,atiku is no more accepted in se/ss.obi has divided his votes in sw and nc.if obi gets 3 mil in se and 3 mil in ss,tinubu gets 3 mil in sw and 1 mil in borno,where will atiku get his own since north will share votes? Even if he wins the north,he won't get the spread in the south

all he need is is 25% of 5 southern states. Atiku is getting 25% in Akwa ibom, Bayelsa, Edo, Osun, Oyo, even Rivers and Cross rivers Atiku will surely get Atleast 25% .
In north west and north east Atiku is getting 12 million votes
In north central Atiku is getting Atleast 3 million votes.

odduduwa:
u?

yes me.

ItsTutsi:
Dear Yoruba brothers,

How could you have forgotten this thread real quick, in which you were insulted, mocked, belittled, antagonised, maligned, abused and slandered when you find yourself out of the corridors of power?
https://www.nairaland.com/745731/yoruba-marginalization-elders-met-jonathan

Going through that thread, I shock my head in disbelief in regards the hatred and hostility target towards the SW

Why do you Yoruba find it easy to join other region/tribes in insulting your leaders, while other region protect, shield, safeguard and defend their elites at all cost!!

I'm a northerner, in as much as I don't like Atiku and I won't be voting for him, because I know his incompetent, coupled with his corruption baggage.. I see a lot of northerners trying to white wash and portray him as what his not simply because his a fellow northerner

You say Tinubu is corrupt, that he has stolen Lagos money through Alpha beta

LMFAO! Pls name me on politician that is not corrupt!

Why are the SE not talking about PO Pandora scandals or his countless lies!! Why do they find it easy and convenient to hide their flaws but u join them in ridiculing and exposing urs

there celebrities can campaign for PO but you dear not campaign for Tinubu even in SW, Yoruba land.. can u imagine!!.. if this is what is called "omoluwabi", then I'm afraid it's a curse!!

No wonder it's easy for them to claim Lagos "a no man's land, while paying homage in kano state!

you said religion does not matter in SW, but events lately has exposed you guys, u let outsiders to divide and rule you.. there is no single Muslim governor nor deputy, but that has never been an issues.. this is hypocrisy!!

Once u loose out, this same set of people will be the first ones to mock, insult and rob ur stupidity all over ur face.. while they push u to insult and castigate ur finest elites, they are at the background laughing at u

their japa destination is Lagos State , to an extend El-rufai referred to them as "night bus travellers!! Why will you not look at what all Tinubu has achieved and his competence in Lagos, simple because a outsider told u so!!

When it comes to competence, is PO or Atiku expertise and prowess capable to lace Tinubu's shoes!?!? When we start talking about achievements, they quickly switch to corruption, when we remind them of Pandora papers, they quickly switch to age, forgetting they voted for Atiku in 2019!!

no amount of pressure will make me support Atiku, my fellow like Arewa will say "komai ne naka naka ne(no matter what, urs is urs), but I told them, since Atiku left for Dubai in 2019.. has he ever spoke about herdsmen, kidnapping and other vices affecting the north?

you have not been following Atiku. Atiku make a promise to wipe out Boko haram and bandits in Borno and Kaduna respectively.
Let me also remind you that many yorubas are affected by this high cost of things.
Yoruba are buying fuel at 500 naira per litre
They are also sleeping on the que for more than 48 hours in order to get fuel.
Do you think the students that were supposed to graduate this year but they have to extend their program to next year because of strike will vote for APC?
Mr man, if hungry catch you you stop thinking about region.

senatordave1:
He will get bloc votes there while atiku can't get bloc from anywhere. Atiku won't make it

how many votes are the block votes of South East? On 2 states from the north west covered the whole south east. Atiku don't even need block votes to win and election, all he needs is 25% of votes in 24 states. Look at it very well, Atiku is fairly accepted in the south east and south south, north central, north east and north west is automatically for Atiku. Even in the south west.
The south east hate Tinubu with passion while the Yoruba also hate the igbos with passion.
It is only Atiku that doesn't have a strong hatred in any of the zones.

ImmaculateJOE:
Between Fulani Herdsmen and IPOB, which one has killed more Northern Christians....?
Which of them is always sacking Southern Kaduna people from their homes while killing their loved ones with reckless abandon...?

Obi's IPOB and Atiku's Fulani herdsmen.. Choose one..

let me tell you we have been living with fulani for a long time and we have been having crisis left right center but I can tell you that a Christian in the north will prefer Fulani than Biafra. There are many doubt about Peter Obi in the north. Gowon was the president when this biafra agenda sterted and many people believe that Peter Obi is coming for revenge.
Even when zango kataf crisis happened the northern Christians still voted for a fulani candidate.

oladeebo:
...op you try but it can't come out in that way.
In all ramifications Tinubu will win without rerun.
Here are why, one, this election is West against East, that is, Atiku and Obi were from the East while Tinubu is from the West, the West was always won against East.
Second, Nigeria never drops her traditional regional political partisan which is North, West, East. On that 2/3 we win .means Tinubu will win in the North and in the West. this also mean 2/3 is also in favour of Tinubu

mr man, you are talking about when fuel was 50 Naira per litre, when rice was 7 thousand per bag, when students didn't spend one year at home because of strike, when fuel was everywhere.
Do you think the people that sleep on the que looking for fuel will wake up and vote for APC?
Do you think people that are hungry now, they cannot afford one mudu (Kongo) of rice will wake up and vote for APC?
Do you think the students that were not able to graduate this year will vote for APC?
Even those that use to buy indomie fo 20 Naira, now it is 100 Naira will not vote for APC.

julaion:
I'm doing this to enlighten agbadorians because they have been wailing since yesterday albeit ignorantly.

Let's see the percentage by zone and see who wins according to the polls all things being equal.

Total registered voters by zone.
NW = 22.67 million
SW = 18.3 million
SS = 15.2 Million
NC = 14.1 Million
NE = 12.8 Million
SE = 11.49 Million

1. Peter Obi — (NC = 3,384,000) + (NE = 1,024,000) + (NW = 2,493,700) + (SE = 5,745,000) + (SS = 6,992,000) + (SW = 2,745,000) TOTAL = 22,383,700.

2. Tinubu — (NC = 1,269,000) + (NE = 1,920,000) + (NW = 3,400,500) + (SE = 114,900) + (SS = 1,368,000) + (SW = 4,026,000) TOTAL = 12,098,400

3. Atiku — (NC = 1,128,000) + (NE = 2,944,000) + (NW = 3,853,900) + (SE = 114,900) + ( SS = 456,000) + (SW = 732,000) TOTAL = 9,228,800.

You can see this is for 100% turnout but you can still work it out for lesser percentages of turnout.

Obi is leading with almost double margin of the closest rival so even if the South has a lower turnout, he will still be leading.

I don't see how Tinubu can overturn this since he runs away from the Media.

you are really hyping this your Obi. Nobody knows Peter Obi in north west. Iam from north west.

ImmaculateJOE:
Me too a Christian based in Adamawa..
If there are 100 Northern Christian voters in the NE/NW, not less than 50 of them are voting Obi.. Do the maths and you will have the numbers votes Obi will get in the two regions.

2in3 of every northern Christian I have spoken to, always tell me that they would be voting for there brother in Christ.

if you are a northerner you should know that the north is far a northerner. When ever we are sitting down with my friends in the beer palour I always say I will vote for Obi, but deep inside me I know that Obi will not get one vote from my entire family.
Let me tell you one thing that will reduce Obi votes from the Christians is the issue of biafra.
We have lost many christians from Kaduna and Adamawa in the south east since ipob stated their madness.
Do you know that the military couple that were killed by ipob, the husband was a Christian from Kaduna state?

Spirit04:
Lol where exactly is Obi getting 30% from in North Central?
Tinubu Will get a minimum of 60% in
Niger, Kogi and Kwara. Nassarawa, Benue and Plateau will give him at least 30%
The remainder will go to Atiku.
There's zero chance of PDP winning North East when APC will be getting 90%+ in Borno and Yobe and Bauchi governor declaring he will work for anyone Buhari tells him to work for.
Atiku winning North West? Lmao biggest joke of the year.
The election will not be close. Apc will win by 4m margin minimum.

I can swear to you that Atiku is winning the north west. You don't know the politics of the north.
Only three group of people determine the voting pattern of the north
1) the traditional leaders
2) the religious leaders
) The ex generals.
Let me tell you that it was only a call from one of the ex generals that make Tambuwal to step down for Atiku.
Mind you iam from the north west.

ImmaculateJOE:
You keep underestimating Obi in NW and NE.

In NW, Kaduna state alone will give Obi more votes than the figures you put up there...
In NE, Gombe, Adamawa, Taraba and Bauchi will collectively give Obi over 700k votes.
300k from Taraba, 100k from Adamawa and Bauchi, 80k from Gombe...
These states has huge Christians voters running in their millions. Obi has 60% of Christian voters in NE/NW..

stop dreaming. The north consider north first before any other thing. Iam a Christian from Kaduna but I am voting for Atiku.
I just wished Peter Obi will realise that he cannot win this election and come back to join Atiku.
Atiku is the president, come rain come shine.

senatordave1:
Good,I think this is the best result.it is closest to reality.mind you tinubu may narrow the gap in ne nw or even win.same for obi and tinubu in nc...
But it won't get to a rerun.if tinubu is getting over 1 mil in ss and 400k in se,he will get 25% there.I see obi having more votes than atiku

this election will get to a rerun and it will be between Tinubu and Atiku.
The south east which is mostly for Peter obi are only 10000 registered voters. Those that will actually vote will not be More than 4 million voters.

AbujaCitiBlog:
Obi will soundly defeat Tinubu in Lagos. Watch and see. The margin may be very wide.

we are talking about south west. South West is for Tinubu, but Atiku will win the the election during a re-run.

Trollronaldo:
Below is the amount of registered voters by regions.
I am going to make this analysis based on 40% voters turnout in every region, it's not certain but it's enough to give us an insight to as to what will happen in February.

Based on 40% voters turnout, here is the figure from each region

1. NW 8,902,224
2. SW 7,183,506
3. NC 6, 145, 492
4. SS 5, 776, 285
5. NE 5,016,971
6. SE 4,363,042


Analysis based on regions based on my predictions are as follows

Northwest
1. Atiku 35% 3,115,778
2. TINUBU 30% 2,670,667
3. Kwankwaso 25% 2,225,556
4. Obi 5% 445,111

SouthWest
1. Tinubu 50% 3,591,753
2. Obi 25% 1,7996,876
3. Atiku 15% 1,077,526
4. Kwankwaso 2% 143,670

Southsouth
1. Obi 45% 2,599,328
2. Atiku 30% 1,732,885
3. Tinubu 20% 1,155,257
4. Kwankwaso 2% 115,525

Northcentral
1. Atiku 30% 1,843,647
2. Obi 30% 1,843,647
3. Tinubu 30% 1,843,647
4. Kwankwaso 10% 614,549

Northeast
Atiku 40% 2,006,788
Tinubu 30% 1,505,091
Kwankwaso 15% 752,545
Obi 10% 501,697

Southeast
Obi 70% 3,054,129
Atiku 15% 654,456
Tinubu 10% 436,304
Kwankwaso 1% 43,630


TOTAL
Tinubu : 11,202, 719
Atiku: 10,431,080
Obi: 10,239,788
Kwankwaso: 3,895,475


I see Tinubu getting the most votes, however, this is not certain. Tinubu will get the most votes but won't get 25% required coverage. Tinubu will go into a rerun with Atiku.
Atiku will beat Tinubu in the rerun by winning SE and SS. However, it's still too close to call, Tinubu and Atiku may lose the momentum to Obi.


Thanks for reading guys

the best analysis so far.

If oath dey help babalawo for no die on top pastor wife.
If oath dey help Tinubu for don die since.

PDP are not noise makers. The real campaign is door to door campaign.
Atiku is the next president.

2 :1 Fulham