₦airaland Forum

successmatters:
Which your own state can never assemble till 2088

christistruth01:
IPOB have banned PDP and APC activities in the South East for now so how will they march there

Mooh247:



Peter Peter Obi's only crime and sin is having mkpuru Mniri miscreants as his support base


.

Think9ja:
The thing I love the most about this man is the fact that he refused to travel to any yeye place to site his business.

That is how it should be.

Not forcing people to relocate to a place where you buy land 70M and then use 30M to sand fill. Same land you can get for probably half the price elsewhere.

I've said it before, all my businesses will be cited in my village in Karu Local Government Area.

Rahkman:
cry urself to death....uSa still stands the greatest country on earth .....eat shit nigger

thebosstrevor1:
Do you know most fraud occur on kuda? It is a fraudster paradise

Ebubu:
Commendable

But Minimum wage in Nigeria should be 70,000 naira

DoctorOlasDesk:
Obi spend money. Realism is better than idealism, all these spendthrift idiosyncrasies won't help you. You own a bank break it. Pursuit is proof of fate.

Obi spend this money. Be serious for once. By now, you should have at least 12 PR team flying private jets disturbing the entire country, this won't cost a fortune. Obi I reiterate, spend out of your money. You're too stingy, this is why you won't even win primary.

Your competitors are using all means necessary, you're going to delegates with just mouth.

You'll learn reality and idealism aren't the same along this journey. Yeye



I expect Obi to participate more spiritedly. Elections are not won by laxity world wide. Do your research. Things are forth for, not given. I expect Ndigbo to wake up and put in the fight and stop wishing


I support Obi, but he won't win. He's deluded and doesn't know how reality works or refuses to accept it

slimfit1:
It's time we stop spending national funds in the North because all they have done is wasted our money on taxes fixing their problems. We can't carry on like this. They bring nothing to the table but destruction but take the best.

TheNiceGuy:
You have comprehension issue

TheNiceGuy:
Tinubu will eventually get APC ticket.

Aside consulting widely, he would be pitied in the long run haven't paid his dues duly in the party.
If El Rufai gang could be falling in line, what else?

It's just sad how Oshinbajo painted his name eventually. As it stands, South West delegates won't vote Oshinbajo.

No one should mention constitutional rights here, moral justification should even tell him not to contest aside Being a Pastor.

He's greedy.
He deserves whatever name he's called.

VPN11:
The story of Nigeria’s 1962 census never gets old. Southern politicians seeking to end the north’s dominance of Nigerian politics decided that the only way to do it was through the census. Population figures at the time determined not only parliamentary representation but also revenue allocation and employee distribution in the civil service. In May 1962, the first census under an independent Nigerian government began. There had been a frenzy of mobilization by politicians in the south of the country using pamphlets, radio, schools, churches and mosques.

Although the final results were not made public, the preliminary results were quite clear as to what had happened: the north’s population had gone up from 16.5 million in the last census in 1952 to 22.5 million, an increase of 30%. But in some parts of the east, the population had increased by up to 200% and more than 70% in general. The west also reported an increase of 70%. What the preliminary results showed was that the north had lost its majority share of the country’s population.

The northern leaders were not about to take that lying down. A new census was held in 1963 and this time, an additional 8.5 million people were discovered in the north bringing the total to 31 million for the north—a figure higher than the population of every other country in Africa at the time—and 56 million for Nigeria as a whole. The power balance had been restored and Nigeria’s census had been duly weaponized at a cost of $6.2 million (about $50 million today). Another census was conducted a decade later in 1973 but was so hotly disputed and produced incredible figures that the government simply nullified the result.

In 1991, the military government of General Ibrahim Babangida had another try at a population count. This time, after some delay, the figures were officially announced in March 1992—there were just under 89 million people in the country. Fifteen years later, in 2006, another census was conducted and the population was announced to have grown by more than 50% to 140 million. It is these two censuses, when compared, that tell a most interesting story about Nigeria.

First, there was a slight wrinkle in the data that made it tricky to directly compare the 1991 and 2006 numbers. In 1991, Nigeria had 30 states but in 1996, Nigeria’s maximum ruler, General Sani Abacha, created an additional 6 states bringing the total to 36. Since the new states had been carved out of existing states, making the numbers directly comparable meant adding the 2006 numbers for the 5 new states back into the states they had been carved out of. So Nasarawa’s numbers went back into Plateau,Gombe went back into Bauchi, Bayelsa went back into Rivers, Ekiti went into Ondo, Ebonyi went back into Enugu (this was a bit tricky as a small part of Ebonyi was created from Abia state but it’s not statistically relevant to affect the comparison here) and finally Zamfara went back into Sokoto. Now I had 30 states in 1991 to compare with 30 states in 2006.

Implausibly, each state had managed to maintain its exact share of the population across two censuses, 15 years apart. A nearly successful military coup in April 1990 badly rattled the military high command and hastened the relocation of the federal capital from Lagos to Abuja, a process that was completed in December 1991, right after the census had been completed. Given the large bureaucracy and patronage networks that followed the government in the move to Abuja, it would have been impossible not to reflect this in the numbers somehow. Thus, Abuja rose from 0% of the total in 1991 to 1% in 2006. The difference was made up by pushing down Abia to 2% of the total in 2006 from 3% in 1991. Every other state remained unchanged.
In 2000, the Nigerian government began a new revenue sharing formula that returned 13% of all onshore oil revenues to the oil producing states. In practical terms, whatever link remained between population and revenue allocation was effectively broken by this new 13% derivation principle. In other words, there was no financial reason to manipulate the distribution of the census figures in 2006 in line with the 1991 numbers.

This is best illustrated with the monthly Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) where the federal government and states gather to share oil revenues. The most recent report available on the statistics bureau website is for January 2018. According to the census figures, the most populous state in 2006 was Kano with 9.4 million people. In January it received a total of 6.6 billion naira ($18.4 million) after all deductions. Akwa Ibom state, a major oil producing state but with less than half the population of Kano at 3.9 million, received a total of 16.5 billion naira ($46 million). Of this amount, 12 billion naira was its share of the 13% derivation principle.

While just eight of Nigeria’s 36 states receive this derivation payment, it nonetheless accounts for roughly a quarter of the total revenues shared by states monthly. In the same month, tiny Taraba state with less than a quarter of Kano’s 2006 population received 3.8 billion naira as its share of revenues. If a link remains between population numbers and revenue sharing in Nigeria’s resource based economic model, it is at best tenuous.

What part of Nigeria’s official census figures can be believed? I’ve generally assumed the total figure of 140 million was perhaps correct and the falsification only happened in the way it was distributed across the states by formula. But there’s reason to doubt even that. In 2010, Donald Duke, the former two-term governor of Cross River state, committed a remarkable act of political class suicide by penning an article detailing how he and his fellow governors rigged elections in Nigeria. Buried in the middle of the piece was this line:

When we conducted the census in 2006 or so, the raw figures said we were over two hundred million; when they went and processed the figures it came down to 140 million.

He was a governor at the time so his claim is at least plausible. The question is who or what did the “processing” and what did such an exercise entail? It’s hard to tell.

Nigeria been due another census since 2016 but lack of funds—the Nigerian government can only fund 51% of the costs and is relying on donors to fund the remaining 49%—mean it is now scheduled to hold this year at a cost of 272 billion naira ($759 million) “if necessary logistics are provided”, according to the director general of the National Population Commission (NPC).

In 2013, the former chairman of the NPC, Festus Odimegwu, managed to talk himself out of a job with a series of controversial comments. 24 out of the NPC’s 35 commissioners asked the president to fire him from his job as they had lost all confidence in him. Before then he had been queried by the presidency for giving newspaper interviews where he said there had never been a credible census in Nigeria, including the one in 2006, and that the 2016 one which he had been charged with conducting was doomed to fail. All of this was intolerable candor and president Jonathan eventually tired of his antics and fired him in October 2013.

The country’s finances remain in poor shape and the leadership is currently consumed by politicking in advance of the general elections. But it will have to hold a census at some point and the question of whether people can lay down their weapons and allow a credible count to take place remains a pertinent one. There is no longer any financial reason for any state to lie about its numbers so the country has a unique opportunity to hold its first credible census in its history as an independent nation. The reasons for having credible population numbers are too obvious to restate: Nigeria has essentially been making policy blind since its independence.

State 1991 2006 1991 Share of Total 2006 Share of Total
Abia 2,338,487 2,845,380 3% 2%
Adamawa 2,102,053 3,178,950 2% 2%
Akwa Ibom 2,409,613 3,902,051 3% 3%
Anambra 2,796,475 4,177,828 3% 3%
Bauchi 4,351,007 7,018,106 5% 5%
Benue 2,753,077 4,253,641 3% 3%
Borno 2,536,003 4,171,104 3% 3%
Cross River 1,911,297 2,892,988 2% 2%
Delta 2,590,491 4,112,445 3% 3%
Edo 2,172,005 3,233,366 2% 2%
Enugu 3,154,380 5,444,784 4% 4%
FCT Abuja 371,674 1,406,239 0% 1%
Imo 2,485,635 3,927,563 3% 3%
Jigawa 2,875,525 4,361,002 3% 3%
Kaduna 3,935,618 6,113,503 4% 4%
Kano 5,810,470 9,401,288 7% 7%
Katsina 3,753,133 5,801,584 4% 4%
Kebbi 2,068,490 3,256,541 2% 2%
Kogi 2,147,756 3,314,043 2% 2%
Kwara 1,548,412 2,365,353 2% 2%
Lagos 5,725,116 9,113,605 6% 6%
Niger 2,421,581 3,954,772 3% 3%
Ogun 2,333,726 3,751,140 3% 3%
Ondo 3,785,338 5,859,834 4% 4%
Osun 2,158,143 3,416,959 2% 2%
Oyo 3,452,720 5,580,894 4% 4%
Plateau 3,312,412 5,075,908 4% 4%
Rivers 4,309,557 6,903,231 5% 5%
Sokoto 4,470,176 6,981,549 5% 5%
Taraba 1,512,163 2,294,800 2% 2%
Yobe 1,399,687 2,321,339 2%
Nigeria pop 88,994,211 140,433,796
See, if Nigeria remains a country in the next 50yrs, Northern Nigeria will be cut to size and kept in check. No more fake population or its use in revenue derivation principal.

Federalism of the purest form is coming, because the South have wake up and you'd be the worst hit.

Advocate basic/vocational education for Almajiris.

The system was employed by your leaders/elders to subjugate citizens for election rigging & FAAC.

In a pure Federal or Regional Nigeria, a president is most likely to be ceremonial.

You can't contain Almajiris in your prime.

The advantage you have over that Almajiri is education, so use it well.

The advantage you seem to have over Southerners is the political position your elders/leaders are holding. It'd soon be over.

Make demands of your leaders/elders today.

Nigeria is going RESTRUCTURING!

Ufelli:
Amaechi is slowly towing the path of Jonathan. Doing things to please the north. I hope he doesn't end like him

prettyboi1:
I recognize & respect the fact that everyone has the right to support whoever they wish. However, I just want to express my opinion; I truly pity those who think Osinbajo is any different from Buhari. If Osinbajo was any different, Buhari's rule won't have been this tragic, clueless & directionless for Nigeria. Osinbajo would be another Goodluck Jonathan and Buhari combined. Imagine that level of cluelessness & tragedy.

CondemnBattery:


Tinubu the assistant Bubu never expected it.

If Tinubu was to contest for my street Baale, I wouldn't vote for him let alone Nigerian President.

As for Osibande, even though I'm a redeemer, I can't vote for him. He's part of the government of this failed conception. A pastor that was going about bribing poor market men and women with TRADER Money just to get cheap votes. Spits