₦airaland Forum

talktimi:


By Femi Aribisala
I HAVE news for APC stalwarts. You don’t win an election in Nigeria by being the champion of social media. You don’t win by renting crowds to fill up your rallies. You don’t win by putting up your billboards everywhere while tearing down those of your opponents. You don’t win by master-minding in the media a false sense of the inevitability of your victory. When you do all this successfully, you simply end up deceiving yourself.

You win elections by mounting an effective ground-game at the grassroots level; designed to bring out the people on Election Day to vote for you. Instead, APC strategy was to stampede the electorate into victory. The design was to proclaim victory even before the election, laying grounds for protests and acrimony in event of defeat.

Attempted coup d’état

The APC blueprint is see-through. Present a new refurbished, suit-wearing and church-visiting Buhari to the electorate chanting a mantra of “change.” Give him a Teflon-coated Redeemed pastor as vice-presidential running-mate. Shield him from public scrutiny and debates to hide his weaknesses and absent-mindedness. Gloss over his objectionable past and pedigree. Mount an aggressive image-laundering social media campaign.

So doing, before the PDP and the public would be up to your game, the election would be over. Nigerians would wake up on February 15th to discover to our cost that we had been hoodwinked into handing over power to Buhari and the Tinubu cabal.

The APC mechanism for perfecting this plan entailed bullying the PDP into defeat. In the North, PDP supporters were threatened and harassed. Some quickly packed their bag and baggage and left town. Even Goodluck Jonathan’s convoy was stoned by APC “democrats.” In Gombe, a suicide bomber paid a courtesy call on the president’s campaign rally.

But the killer-punch was to be the disenfranchisement of literally millions of PDP voters. With the complicity of Jega’s INEC, APC strongholds were supplied with PVCs: while PDP strongholds were denied them. Ghost-voters came out of the woodwork by their hundreds of thousands in unlikely places like the war-torn North-east to collect their PVCs. However, in peaceful higher-population places like Lagos and Kano, non-indigenes were denied their PVCs, suspected of being likely PDP supporters.

It is telling that, in all the ensuing brouhaha over 23 million people not yet receiving their PVCs seven days to D-Day, APC remained resolute that the election should go ahead nevertheless. This indicates that it knew the missing PVCs belonged disproportionately to PDP supporters.

The denouement

However, the entire strategy of the APC met its Waterloo with the postponement of the election. With the postponement, the Buhari election-train came to a screeching halt. Some have argued that the postponement was a military coup by Jonathan and the PDP. However, a more truthful assessment is that the postponement scuttled the APC plan to win the election by subterfuge.

APC blundered because it refused to entertain the possibility that the election could actually be postponed. As a result, it did not plan for that eventuality. In this gaffe, it was carried away by its own hyperbole. APC big-guns shouted themselves hoarse warning all and sundry that the election must not be postponed, or else. Worse still, they believed their own rhetoric.

APC is used to making threatening noises. It is all stuff and bluster. If it loses, the dogs and the baboons would be soaked in blood. If it loses it would form a parallel government. If the election is postponed, Nigerians would not stand for it. Therefore, it expended all its political and financial capital on a 14th February election. When it finally dawned on it that the election might be postponed, Buhari made an unusual visit to the Council of State to mount a pathetic eleventh-hour resistance.

But alas, the APC was completely outplayed. INEC succumbed to the inevitable and the election was postponed, and for six weeks no less. As a result, the APC stampede came to an end. The orchestrated Buhari momentum came to a screeching halt. Since then, APC pundits have been in shock; scratching their heads because, in all their impetuosity, they had no Plan B.

The APC was banking on the element of surprise. That is now gone with the postponement. It was hoping to win the election by disenfranchising PDP voters. That is no longer possible. It is now confronted with fighting an election it always knew it cannot win because it does not have the appropriate structure on the ground at the grassroots level.

PDP fight back

Sixteen years in power had made the PDP over-confident. It seemed to have been caught unawares by the scripted APC nomination of Buhari and the gimmickry of choosing a Redeemed pastor as his running-mate. As a result, an election that should have been a cake-walk for it suddenly turned into a tight race. Part of this was self-inflicted. PDP had a bad set of primaries; creating considerable dissension within its ranks. Moreover, the PDP was bested in the public relations department; allowing the APC to define the narrative of the election on social media.

Had the election gone on as scheduled on 14th February, it would have been close but Jonathan would still have won. But with six weeks delay, the election will not even be close. Even though it was ebbing discernibly, APC had momentum for the 14th February election. By 28th March, that momentum would have dissipated and disappeared. Even now, the momentum is no longer there. Buhari is in London on a dubious visit. APC has run out of breath.

Make no mistake about it; the six week postponement of the election has effectively crippled the APC. It is no wonder then that the party has been grumbling non-stop. In the meantime, PDP has been able to get a full measure of the APC. Putting all its eggs in the 14th February date, which it insisted cannot and must not be changed; the APC played all its cards. It put all its eggs in one basket. However, PDP held some in reserve, banking on the postponement of the election.

APC’s confusion

What happens now? APC is confused. It is stretched for funds. It has lost its mojo, scrambling in panic mode to raise additional 50 billion naira from donors. Speaking to APC stakeholders at the party secretariat in Lagos, Bola Tinubu said: “We have to re-strategise; all of you should go back to your various constituencies starting from tomorrow.” This is a belated acknowledgment that the party now likely to win the election is the one best able to mount an aggressive and effective nationwide grassroots campaign.

In that department, the APC is clearly second-best. The party best positioned to mount an effective ground-game and mobilize votes at the grassroots level is the PDP. It has been around for 16 years. PDP local government councilors account for nearly 70 per cent of all councilors in Nigeria, comprising 6,521 members, making it a truly grassroots-based political party. The APC, on the other hand, does not have the nationwide political structure to win the coming election. To date, it is a newspaper and television political party. It has yet to build a formidable grassroots support. It is a JJC party, a little over a year old.

With all the noise about Buhari, it should not be forgotten that the man chronically lacks skills at building political party structures. In the APC presidential primaries, Northern delegates did not even vote for him; preferring instead Kwankwaso and Atiku. He was elected primarily on the strength of ACN votes. PDP strength on the ground everywhere in Nigeria explains why Jonathan was able to win 37% of the vote even in Buhari’s home-state of Katsina in the 2011 election.

While APC was busy stoking up the press to create its air of inevitable victory, PDP was busy mobilizing its local government councilors. Its Presidential Campaign Organisation brought all its elected and appointed councilors from all over Nigeria to Abuja to mobilize them to secure victory for the party at the grassroots level. In what was captioned “Operation Deliver Your Ward,” Professor Jerry Gana re-fashioned them as political foot-soldiers and grassroots mobilisers for the PDP, split into six groups according to their geopolitical zones.

Resurgent PDP

Since the postponement, Jonathan is no longer the issue. It is once again Buhari; the coup-plotting former dictator and alleged ethnic and religious jingoist. Thanks to the postponement, Nigerians can no longer be panicked into voting for Buhari. We now have enough time to appreciate that he is old, and completely bereft of ideas as to what to do when in power. It is not enough to shout “change, change.” The question is: change to what? To this question, Buhari provides a deafening silence.

In the meantime, the true message of Jonathan’s considerable achievements in office is now resonating. With the commissioning of new power-plants, we are now generating 5,500 megawatts of electricity: a new Nigerian record. We now know from PricewaterhouseCoopers that the allegation that $20 billion is missing from NNPC accounts is one big fat APC lie. The army is now fully-equipped for battle. For the first time in a long time, the Nigerian air force has come into the fray. The Boko Haram is being bombed to smithereens up North. There is even talk of capturing Abubakar Shekau alive.

Within the next six weeks, all that is left is for the PDP to put its house in order and APC will be toast. Since Buhari has whipped up himself and his supporters into an unrealistic psychological frenzy in this election cycle, it is certain he will end up at the tribunal, when it finally dawns on him that, in spite of all the bluster, he has lost again. The fate awaiting Buhari brings to mind that of Mitt Romney who was so deceived into believing he would be elected America’s next president in 2012, he had only a victory speech on election night when he was roundly defeated.

When the history of the 2015 presidential election is finally written, it will be recalled that the postponement of the election for six weeks was the final nail in the coffin of the APC.


http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/02/the-end-of-apcs-fabricated-momentum/

Nicely written! The 6 weeks postponement of the election was the real game changer! A lot has changed in just a few weeks into it. The hype of hay fee is dead and gone! Banking on propaganda and falsehood to arm twist the nigerian people into believing GEJ is not capable to lead this great country is a lie packaged from the deepest pits of hell! Come March when GEJ defeats the best media team that installed Obama and the world shall know that indeed there is a God in heaven that rules over the affairs of men.

Hay fee cee baseless topics making front page like forever! Seun there is God oh! The thread by the ekiti governor busting the lies of the dura cow rearer is laying at the background despite many calling the mods to do the needful! Continue pleasing these bad fellows at your own peril! No amount of propaganda in collaboration with nairaland would stop GEJ's re-election! Fashola can please his god father (thiefnibu) all he wants with baseless stories it's GEJ till 2019 all the way

Hay fee cee!!

Nice point raised by the op! I think the hay fee cee's problem here on NL is their inability to think objectively. One would notice that as soon as they begin to ask the right questions about the hay fee cee's leadership/ campaign style, they immediately emancipate themselves from the occultic hold and the disease of blind supporting, a case study of baristacan and now mynd44! While their core followers in NL are beginning to see the light, other keep resulting to insult and slander against anyone that dares think outside the box.

Indeed this country is moving forward! The 6 weeks postponement of the election was the real game changer! Boko is being defeated, many more are getting their pvc's, and people are seeing the true nature of the association of present criminals.
@ op I use this medium to congratulate you on thinking outside the box! You used to be a stunch hay fee cee supporter and this kind of thinking is not common with them! Kudos

@Op your right! The pictures can speak for themselves. It is a known fact that the hay fee cee urchins turn a blind eye to truth and result to insults whenever they are boxed in the corner. The pathetic bunch are trying to derail the thread to stop you from promoting the truth. Looking at the pic's closely there is a 95% similarity with all what you been posting along side the acclaimed 'interview in London'. A striking resemblance can be seen in the floor pattern as well.
Nice one @op continue to burst the bubble of the occultic party with it's blind followers.

Finally! Something for the hay fee cee rodents to feast on! Within the stipulated weeks given to flush out the insurgents, all we have heard is good news of success. But the hay fee cee fellows are unhappy and craved negative news! Well Here you have it! Feast all you want on this because this might be your last!

Gej is winning the war on terror and this faceless/unidentifiable ex solider' account has no impact whatsoever on the success against boko boys.

The hay fee cee is to desperate for power and would do anything to be at the helm of its affairs. Those accusing PDP missed where the article stated that the plaintiff's were bonafide APC carry card members.

Prophet suleman's prediction of lawyers making so much money comes to mind with all these court cases this year.

Hope tambuwal gets dismissed by the courts

@ barcanista never thought I'll be quoting you ever on NL as I hardly want to have anything to do with the hay fee cee deluded fellows. However, seeing what had transpired between you and them, I sincerely appreciate your stance to pull out from such 'evil' union. How did u mange to be with them all along? I Watched you defend the Un Defendable with the whole certificate issues and that of the court cases and for you to be treated the way you was, was only an eye opener for you and at the right time. Judging from their actions (back stabbing) and what they proclaim (progressives) is this how we intend to "change" nigeria? Is this the change they preach??

No one likes oppression and the way you were treated cannot be far from being oppressed in a place where you should be protected at least from those you put your trust in or expect to be there for you. In this particular incidence I feel for you and I must say you have done what any reasonable person would do.
In this regards I join the Patriots to congratulate you from pulling out of the occult named hay fee cee. If you choose to be in the patriotic camp or not, is no way my issue. What matters to me is you have seen the light and you are free from the shackles and embarrassment the hay fee cee brings along with it. Congrats!

Story for the gods! As the NA is winning the war against BH! The propagandist are at it again with their biased media wing, making attempts to slow the government down through this missing girls long thing. This same girls were the reason sambisa had not been bombed and combed due to casualty on the side of the innocent girls. Once again the mischief makers have resumed! Watch oby and her paid 'bring back out girls' group resurrect with this baseless news coming from an unknown woman!
The NA shall not be Arm twisted again to slow down on the war against boko! We have less than 5weeks remaining to flush all boko elements off the trouble areas! The campaign must go on!

Funny how this news has been circulating on local medias since and no one seemed to give its any credibility till it came from foreign bodies. Nigerians and their love for anything western. Immediately the hay fee cee goons insisted the elections hold or they proceed with their parallel government, I knew something wasn't right. What kind of shameless party blames GEJ for virtually everything wrong in their lives?? That of the election was the height of their desperation on the part of the hay fee cee to rule this country illegitimately with their accomplice jega doing majority of their dubious biddings.

On the part of the U.S condeming the postponement of the elections, it's highly ignorant on their part to ignore the security reasons and sideling of about 30 million registered voters who had not received their PVC's. No sane country or persons would throw these factors to the dirt when looking forward to a credible and safe elections. Once again the U.S are trying to join the heads of Nigerians together whilst speaking from both sides of the mouth. Apparently, reading from the comments, Nigerians are wiser now and can clearly see through their hypocrisy. Acting like they care more than we the citizens gives me cause for concern! The U.S one again has clearly showed their number one foreign policy "no permenant friends, only permenant interest".

Seun you Rilly had to change the tittle of the thread because hay fee cee is putting pressure on you?? Your efforts to please these propagandist knows no bounds! I pray it doesn't ruin you. No matter your efforts to please them the truth must still prevail! Your quite lucky those who support pdp do not trouble you as much as these hay fee cee goons... Learn to hold your grounds and not be a 'chicken' to their empty threats.. Peace!

I don't hear the Cameroonian opposition party nor the citizens calling for the head of their president! If it was to be in Nigeria trust the usual enemies of progress (hay fee cee) to start calling Gej all sort of unimaginable names and how he should be booted out of power. It's a shame what desperation for power has reduced people to! In sane countries you see the people of all tribes, belief and regions team up with relevant government agencies and its central government to forestall furture occurances and put an end to these disgusting acts! E.g France et al.

Nigerians need to wise up! Freedom of speech is not freedom to show un patriotism and one's disdain and hate for GEJ! Provide solutions and not just criticize and blame the FG for the woes that befall this country.
Learn to be a solution and not a problem! Kapish

At least now we know where the hay pee cee paid agents originate from! America supporting terrorist to overthrow a legitimate government since time immemorial! E.g lybia, Syria etc. This ungodly romance between the U.S and hay pee cee is one to be wary of! The hay pee cee are truly desperate for power at all cost. Depending on the U.S to help in taking out goodluck shows a lot has been promised to service U.S intrest. Those politically inclined know the U.S is not a fan of GEJ because he has bluntly refused to dance to their tune. Little wonder they outrighly refused to supply us arms and stopped most arms deal to fight boko! Helping Hay pee cee use boko to terrorize the government. The U.S also leaked the south African arms deal to the joy of hay pee cee urchins! However, here comes the sell out of the NIgerian furture (hay pee cee) to further enclave Nigerians through dubious and unethical means!
Indeed America would know! When Gej defeats the best election team that put in the supposed strongest president in the world, they would respect Gej by force. If hay pee fee likes they should employ MI6! It's GEJ till 2019! Suckers!

Hahahahahahaha! Sweet news this morning... Woke up to an answered prayer. Only an ignorant person would think JEGA would remain in that office till election day. The man has taken side with hay fee cee and the nothern urchins to rig the general election in their favor! It would be stupid to keep him there any longer than 1st of March.
Who said Gej is clueless? You might want to have a rethink. Hay fee cee has been loosing all political stand off's with PDP like forever!
Those saying war war! Where are your battle axes? Where are your war drums you cowards! Perfect timing for JEGA to embark on 3 months compulsory leave according to the constitution! Just the way politics is played... Keep ranting on NL while the game is changed outside NL! Likes don't change situations, something hay fee cee is learning the hard way.

judiciarypalava:
APC's major selling point is Buhari as a person and his record as a military head of state, which is captioned to be a DICTATORSHIP era. For a man that was in charge for just a year plus to have such a career killing past is not just worth having as a formidable change agent. APC as the strongest opposition party made a very bad choice in the person of Buhari.
PDP under GEJ, though have not done marvellously well but is on the transformation process. We all know that building is a process and must be followed, even if the opposition party takes over.
But Nigeria is just filled with wicked, unpatriotic and self-centered politicians that would not want continuity wether in the interest of the masses or not. So long as you are from the opposition camp, all your programmes l'll be terminated once the incumbent or his candidate loses election.

God bless Nigeria

Bless you!
1 billion likes

Wish I had the "give this man a medal" meme

Hay fee cee! A dying breed... Their paymasters Are running out of cash and the boat is fast sinking! Little wonder they insisted the elections must hold. Sponsoring liars and propagandist must sure be costing the hay fee cee a fortune.. Too bad! Sucks to be on the loosing side right now....

Finally! Amaechi's dream of a parallel government coming into play! hope he leads the touts he intend to use for this rubbish. Would be eager to see how he intends to pull this off! Sore looser!

Good news! The failbuhari project is still on course.. Hay fee cee thought they could compromise the inec by distributing more pvc's in their strong hold. They seem to forget the name of the man they up against. The luck is always good in his favour! It's Goodluck for the postponement to total victory.

Let the hay fee fee form their parallel government if sad by this news

Jega has been compromised, he should be retired anytime soon as all credibility has been stripped off him.

Jega has been compromised! Hay fee cee stronghold state record an alarming 80-90% collection of pvc's while in the PDP strongholds the records are within 60-70% collection rate if not less. Who is deceiving who here? Hay fee cee must think the nigerian people are fools! Little wonder there are clamoring for the elections to hold whilst a lot of things have not been duely put in place. (Staff training, voting machines stations etc)
After all their fruitless propaganda and outright lies that made no impact whatsoever, they resolved to use the INEC to do their devilish bidding.
God knows without INEC recording a sufficient and satisfactory rate of nation wide distribution of pvc's, adequate training, ensuring the lives of the voters are secured, the election would not be held anytime soon.

Furthermore, the lives and security of the masses are at risk, knowing the violent and destructive nature of the hay fee cee goons, we need adequate security from all military/paramilitary formations of which they are currently engaged in the battle to rid the north eastern region of terrorist. Hence it makes a lot of sense to allow the military face one situation at a time. At the end of the day should JEGA go on with the election and this country burns would he be able to face the consequences of his decision??
The opposition needs to stop all this GEJ this and that, it's getting irritating! This is about the collective good of all and not just GEJ.
The opposition thought they are smart but then again as my sigy goes! "BABA GOD PASS THEM" kapish!

Jega has been compromised! Hay fee cee stronghold state record an alarming 80-90% collection of pvc's while in the PDP strongholds the records are within 60-70% collection rate if not less. Who is deceiving who here? Hay fee cee must think the nigerian people are fools! Little wonder there are clamoring for the elections to hold whilst a lot of things have not been duely put in place. (Staff training, voting machines stations etc)
After all their fruitless propaganda and outright lies that made no impact whatsoever, they resolved to use the INEC to do their devilish bidding.
God knows without INEC recording a sufficient and satisfactory rate of nation wide distribution of pvc's, adequate training, ensuring the lives of the voters are secured, the election would not be held anytime soon.

Furthermore, the lives and security of the masses are at risk, knowing the violent and destructive nature of the hay fee cee goons, we need adequate security from all military/paramilitary formations of which they are currently engaged in the battle to rid the north eastern region of terrorist. Hence it makes a lot of sense to allow the military face one situation at a time. At the end of the day should JEGA go on with the election and this country burns would he be able to face the consequences of his decision??
The opposition needs to stop all this GEJ this and that, it's getting irritating! This is about the collective good of all and not just GEJ.
The opposition thought they are smart but then again as my sigy goes! "BABA GOD PASS THEM" kapish!