₦airaland Forum

Deadlytruth:
Na so oooo! Sick companies are changing people's fortunes while fundamentally sound ones are causing frustration here and there.
What an interesting irony!

arduino:
And e be like say Oga Milost don open Jegede Oil and Gas join.
See as I just dey miss wealth transferring buses back to back...

Cadillac15:


Same bad characters and behaviors still loitering on the thread since my last visit.

Its in the blood

That on the side, who is this one trading Brent crude on the high?

Now above $74/barrel

In other news, Gwarzo is coming back as the SEC DG. Watch out for the news

~Back to my mason job~

Godlylifeoneart:
fellow investors, has any1 observed the DEPRIVATION melted at us by JUMIA NG
One would have expected this company to list on NSE but the opportunity was taken to the US BOURSE NYSE
A company valued at $2.5 Billion would have had an instant impact on the Nigeria bourse.
A company that made almost 70% of its earning from Nigeria economy.
The company that will still make 90% of its future profits from the same economy
TO me ,the listing has more disadvantages. and the disadvantages outweighed the narrow and imaginary benefit they might have conceived
THE DIGITAL GOLD RUSH OF JUMIA AKA AFRICAN AMAZON HAS BEEN TAKEN AWAY FROM US
I WISH A TRUE NIGERIACENTRIC START UP COMPANY CAN EMERGE AND RELEGATE JUMIA TO KENYA
DESPITE ALL THE ODDS,THE UNFAVOURABLE BUSSINESS CLIMATE,THIS COMPANY STARTED FROM GROUND ZERO AND ATTAINED THE CLIMAX OF DIGITAL GOLD RUSH IN SAME ECONOMY.
I WILL NOT BE SUPRISED,IF THE LISTING IS SHORT LIVED,THEY MAY COME BACK TO LIST THE SCRAP ON NSE.
WHAT IS YOUR VIEW ?
The available information at public disposal was that the company was never incorporated in Africa
This imply an identity theft
they stole the african name, capitalised on weak regulatory activities and off they go
African countries are not good enough to be part of their success stories
in other word ...USED AND DUMPED

onegentleguy:
The past few days has seen me receive a handful of mails over the 2018 FP of FIRST BANK. ...with quite a few of those asking of my opinion on whether its a good buy.
Well, without giving a clear cut answer to that, I'd prefer to highlight a few noticeable worries and allow folks 'to have the last word' with their decision-making.

A brief:

-The bank made a huge loan write-off of over 180B, yet saw its NPL expand above 1350bps from over 22.5% in 2017 to near 26% in 2018. ...this is not a good sign.
With key loans in its book including a 24B exposure to etisalat, and over 4.5x that amount to Atlantic energy, an approx 41% of the total write-off figure can not be accounted for within the spheres of its published result. ...that calls for some serious concern.
Again, I am worried about the banks qualifying capital in proportion to its loan. With CAR contracting by well over 270bps to ~17.2% despite the forbearance from the CBN over the full implementation of IFRS 9 in that line.
...but for that forbearance, CAR as at FY 2018 would've printed far lower(a deceleration of near 400bps to ~10.6%) from the banks 2017 print. ...a figure, so NOT befitting of the banks international status.
The interpretation of this is that 1st banks risk asset measured against its loan remains clearly UNHEALTHY.
The banks RE position also cast some measure of doubt over its ability to maintain or up its current low dividend pay out in the mid term, following an over 97% drop from near 170B in 2017 to just 4.4B in 2018. ...this is even more so given that the banks statutory reserve also declined by near 43B, feeling the heat from the new guide on reporting standard.
-On the profitability front, earnings from running the bank(operating income) actually went down YoY(by ~700bps) and QoQ(~250bps) behind an over 14% cut down in deriavable/net interest income. ...with PAT MARGIN mainly driven by an over 40% YoY or approx 54% QoQ drop in loan loss provision.
Discount that, and u'll see that the bank was only able to deliver a meagre ~24k deriavable earnings(EPS) to its shareholders in Q4 2018.
- Elsewhere, a combination of a higher interest expense and increased CoF(cost of fund) @~881bps and 340bps respectively, on the back of a ~750bps YoY drop in interest income line, ensured that the banks asset quality and yield contracted. ...with the latter pressured down by over 11%.
I am also less impressed with the print accross its key revenue and earnings line. ...particularly their ROAE, ROAA, EBITDA MARGIN, REVENUE MARGIN and EM.
Sure there are a few positives. But these cons are not to be taken lightly.

My verdict: The bank is still struggling with a combination of weak and bad assets which has ensured a strongly difficult route for a clear growth trajectory.
...with efficiency ratios suggestive of a less than impressive performance in both their loan driven front and that of their investment channels.
FIRST BANK should have a place in the portfolio of only those with long term investment horizon. ...but clearly not dividend growth investors.
That said, the estimated beta value of the bank @ well above unity(1) and the industrial average shows that sentiment is still tilted on the side of a healthy patronage(vol).
In contrast though, it does appear that the 'belief system' on the part of investors has been quite weak. This is even more true considering that the coys equity price has stayed solidly below its 50 sma in the short-mid term, while its 200 sma prints even much higher. ...referencing a clear reservation on the part of retail investors and an indifferent/weak romance/belief on the part of FMs, FPIs and DPIs.
With FBNH therefore, caution should be the watch word !!

From where am standing, its relative 1st tier peers, UBA and ACCESS @ current mkt prices presents a clearer and greater MoS deriavable value to tap from, and so remains better options ahead of 1st bank.

NOTE: This piece is strictly on the premise to aide with striking the RIGHT balance between the pros and cons of 1st banks 2018 FP. ...It should therefore not be infered as any sought of recommendation.

My advise: Pls follow ur instinct.

onegentleguy:
The past few days has seen me receive a handful of mails over the 2018 FP of FIRST BANK. ...with quite a few of those asking of my opinion on whether its a good buy.
Well, without giving a clear cut answer to that, I'd prefer to highlight a few noticeable worries and allow folks 'to have the last word' with their decision-making.

A brief:

-The bank made a huge loan write-off of over 180B, yet saw its NPL expand above 1350bps from over 22.5% in 2017 to near 26% in 2018. ...this is not a good sign.
With key loans in its book including a 24B exposure to etisalat, and over 4.5x that amount to Atlantic energy, an approx 41% of the total write-off figure can not be accounted for within the spheres of its published result. ...that calls for some serious concern.
Again, I am worried about the banks qualifying capital in proportion to its loan. With CAR contracting by well over 270bps to ~17.2% despite the forbearance from the CBN over the full implementation of IFRS 9 in that line.
...but for that forbearance, CAR as at FY 2018 would've printed far lower(a deceleration of near 400bps to ~10.6%) from the banks 2017 print. ...a figure, so NOT befitting of the banks international status.
The interpretation of this is that 1st banks risk asset measured against its loan remains clearly UNHEALTHY.
The banks RE position also cast some measure of doubt over its ability to maintain or up its current low dividend pay out in the mid term, following an over 97% drop from near 170B in 2017 to just 4.4B in 2018. ...this is even more so given that the banks statutory reserve also declined by near 43B, feeling the heat from the new guide on reporting standard.
-On the profitability front, earnings from running the bank(operating income) actually went down YoY(by ~700bps) and QoQ(~250bps) behind an over 14% cut down in deriavable/net interest income. ...with PAT MARGIN mainly driven by an over 40% YoY or approx 54% QoQ drop in loan loss provision.
Discount that, and u'll see that the bank was only able to deliver a meagre ~24k deriavable earnings(EPS) to its shareholders in Q4 2018.
- Elsewhere, a combination of a higher interest expense and increased CoF(cost of fund) @~881bps and 340bps respectively, on the back of a ~750bps YoY drop in interest income line, ensured that the banks asset quality and yield contracted. ...with the latter pressured down by over 11%.
I am also less impressed with the print accross its key revenue and earnings line. ...particularly their ROAE, ROAA, EBITDA MARGIN, REVENUE MARGIN and EM.
Sure there are a few positives. But these cons are not to be taken lightly.

My verdict: The bank is still struggling with a combination of weak and bad assets which has ensured a strongly difficult route for a clear growth trajectory.
...with efficiency ratios suggestive of a less than impressive performance in both their loan driven front and that of their investment channels.
FIRST BANK should have a place in the portfolio of only those with long term investment horizon. ...but clearly not dividend growth investors.
That said, the estimated beta value of the bank @ well above unity(1) and the industrial average shows that sentiment is still tilted on the side of a healthy patronage(vol).
In contrast though, it does appear that the 'belief system' on the part of investors has been quite weak. This is even more true considering that the coys equity price has stayed solidly below its 50 sma in the short-mid term, while its 200 sma prints even much higher. ...referencing a clear reservation on the part of retail investors and an indifferent/weak romance/belief on the part of FMs, FPIs and DPIs.
With FBNH therefore, caution should be the watch word !!

From where am standing, its relative 1st tier peers, UBA and ACCESS @ current mkt prices presents a clearer and greater MoS deriavable value to tap from, and so remains better options ahead of 1st bank.

NOTE: This piece is strictly on the premise to aide with striking the RIGHT balance between the pros and cons of 1st banks 2018 FP. ...It should therefore not be infered as any sought of recommendation.

My advise: Pls follow ur instinct.

longlife20:
Yes, they have done that, their shares was around 29 Billion before the merger, now is 35.5billion shares

onegentleguy:
One word; FANTASTIC !!
Thats the fitting way to describe ACCESS banks Q1 2019 result.
Rake-off the few worries in that financial print, and this coy would still be peged as the cheapest banking stock on the exchange at the moment.
Away from the banking segment, CAVERTON still retains my pick as the best coy overall right now !!
With ACCESS, the post above still stands with FVE now reviewed upwards from previous guide of N11.90.
I expect their H1 2019 audited print to come in less weighty, inculcating the feasible downside risk with asset from DIAMOND. ...but whatever happens then, there sure will still be a lot of VALUE to tap from given ACCESS' current underpriced stance.
The figures behind the print(Q1) shows that ACCESS is financially well positioned to "take up and move on" with whatever DIAMOND would bring its way.
A good wine they say, needs no bush. ...time will always almost put things in their right perspective !!

It is well.

dipoolowoo:
Court Discharges, Acquits Suspended SEC Boss of Fraud
https://businesspost.ng/2019/04/16/court-discharges-acquits-suspended-sec-boss-of-fraud/

Mcy56:
You work with Afriprud or how did you know she's the one? Explanation or idontbilivit.

ndidigood:
Went to Afriprud registrar this afternoon to do e-div the listed this for me
*processed transfer form(get acknowledged copy from cscs)
*valid I'd
*cscs statement of account

Pls someone help me on how to go about this BC this one tire me

OBAGADAFFI:
All registrar must upload your e-divided information on the NIBSS platform for your bank conformation.

So go through your bank, tell them (bank) to upload your e-div on the NIBSS platform for you.

Then call the registrar to confirm.

Mpeace:
that is 2014 10kobo. They paid 15k in 2015, 20k in 2016, 25k in 2017, 26k in 2018. Fbnh problem don last for 5yrs. Many more years to go yet NPLs keep rising. No be small thing.

overdrive:
In that case surprise us by getting married.time nor too Dey again.

jideflash:
Do you know that STI has released their 2018 fye result quietly. EPS is 4.13kobo

sold off 8million units of STI today 24kobo , entered at 21kobo.

courage89:
Free floating of naira is a recipe for disaster. It makes difficult, if not impossible to have a manufacturing economy. It makes it difficult for businesses to plan. It makes it difficult for us as Nigerians to have control of our economy, meaning Nigeria will continue to be subject to the dictates of foreign countries (hedge funds, foreign banks and others).

Let's look at a simple analysis. Majority of our manufacturing system depends on imports of raw materials. Every time we devalue, or naira weakens for some reasons. It means importers have to pay more for their raw materials. This additional expenses will have to be added to justify increase in price. Leading to inflation, instabilities and others.

Also, we have balloning government dollar denominated debt. Weakening /floating naira will have a significant economic effect on Nigeria. Our ability to fund infrastructure, pay workers and service high debt based on naira devaluation would be severely impacted. This is also going to increase Nigeria's financial risks; curtail its ability to raise international funding, increase its cost of funding or this effect on corporate bodies that need to raise foreign capital?

By simply floating the naira, you make it impossible to predict the bottom. Our international hedge fund companies, banks and others will see to that. Imagine having a situation where $1 trades for 1000 naira? What would happen to jobs? What would happen to inflation and mpr? What would happen to banks cost of funds? What would happen to manufacturers, most especially those that imports raw materials? What happens to their local and international competitive ability? What would happen to power projects that imports equipment and raw materials? What would happen to the economy on the long run?

Just because some economies adopted policies that worked or did not work for them does not mean we should blindly follow. Our economic policies should be tailored to solving our fundamental problems including; creating jobs, improving manufacturing system, creating wealth for the masses, improving cost of living, improving middle class, making Nigeria better. Devaluation, free flotation of naira is not going to solve those problems. It will only regress the economy further. We have a lot of data to prove this.

Godlylifeoneart:
They will experience a catastrophic losses if they do not come back.
The universal law of money must be obeyjed.
MONEY can never be arrested, it must change hands from one economy to another, from one nation to another.. This is one of the reasons, the United States is a prosperous nation.
This is what the Chinese and Indians are doing. The money must find a new home for prosperity to be defined. The American dollars transformed the economies of Saudi Arabia, China, UK, Japan, South Africa (before the black destroyed it)
There is hope in Nigeria, they are waiting for the Naira to weaken, This they have communicated individually and in directly through World bank and IMF.
Take for instance, the Johannesburg stocks exchange has picked up, the moment the country reserve Bank agreed indirectly to devalue the rand by subjecting it to market forces.
I. E the international prices of Gold and crude oil.
Once the price of crude oil is high the rand looses its strength and once the prices of gold and platinum rises above that of crude oil, the rand regains its strength.
This could not be done in Nigeria. Bubu is anti currency devaluation, he is also against the deregulation s of PMS. In South Africa, once crude oil rises the pump price also rises and vice-versa.
The two major things that are holding back Nigeria economy are.... Fixed price of PMS at the downstream sector regardless of international price of crude coupled with mass importation of the product,
The 2nd thing is the exchange rate.
And one may also add the high cost of Power generation for domestic ind consumptions.
The economy is contracting daily and sometimes stagnant.
In a way, we may say that Bubu is trying to protect the masses while indirectly damaging their present and future. Coz the government could not free up money for quality health care delivery which in turn gave birth to medical tourism.
The companies could not expands which equally built up more unemployed youths.
The government also failed to provide basics and social amenities and services.
Many states could also not paid public servant s salaries.
This is the curse of bubu but alas, he might just open up the Economy by devaluing the Naira, then Nigeria stocks exchange will return investors money at geometrical rate.
Then the story of 2016/17 will repeat itself. From world worst to world best.

OBAGADAFFI:
Right Issue

Coolcash1:
They are still doctoring them to deceive gullible investors..

DOLLARTEX:
welcome onboard the charms cruise.The journey is just starting!

GonFreecss1:
Nope. Exxon is just part of the symptoms. Many companies have been leaving for a while. GSK plans to sell their plants, Accenture is leaving.

The Nigerian economy is sick due to unhealthy policies, this companies leaving and the NSE going down is just a symptom.

rebekah2011:
Listed coys must have 20% of the outstanding shares available for the public to trade. The family alone holds 84%.

Chibuking81:
lol, my mind tells me that you know the actual result, but you want to draw our attention to their wonderful result.
Anyway that's good.

This is interesting, a stock of 20 Kobo with 8 kobo EPs and 3 kobo dividend. Eyes opener
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/25430_CHAMS_PLC_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_MARCH_2019.pdf

Unity bank of 80 kobo, with EPs of 13.3 kobo, against 2017 loss of (127.62)
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/25521_UNITY_BANK_PLC_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_MARCH_2019.pdf

Chibuking81:
FO closed @ #27.70 on Friday, recorded 1.46 eps in their 2018 final year result against 2.85, in 2017.
Majority of NSE listed companies recorded massive loss in 2018 final.

Infinitisi:
#Respect.

Always good to look at the bigger picture.

aremso:
Pls note this is just my strategy! Stocks in most cases are not usually upwards sustained on NSE after the stocks are marked down for dividend this I hàve witnessed severally and with the current happenings in on politically I don't really see much upwards. In 2018 after marking down of some stocks like zenith, ucap, gtb and dang flour those stocks never went back to the price I sold them I sold zenith at 27.3 after marking down then and I bought @ 20.8 later. NSE is a cycle. What sustains our MKT is FPI and earnings and for now those guys are not interested in our mtk. The market will be galloping till yr end in my own opinion I may be wrong though. Am coming back by Oct/Nov at least from now till that time tb will give me more monies to buy more of zenith. Follow your investment patterns

onegentleguy:
On the bolded, u are a sharp man !!
The Makanjuola southern province connection.
^{The next level !!}
If u know, u know.

Cheers.

Yayira:
Wema 3kobo ?

RabbiDoracle:
You don't seem to get how these smaller banks are managed.

They need to shore up capitals by giving out little and holding back the rest so as to improve capital buffers. Fidelity has an over ambitious plan of becoming Tier 1 bank. Is it easy? So they need to plan and know how to go about this.

If Fidelity pays you 50kobo and comes back to raise capital at N2 from you, how will you feel?

So I believe they are holding back to improve their capital buffers.

However, if you don't like it, SELL. Depress the price below N2 so that people can load up more.

Chibuking81:
4. ABC EPS , 7 Kobo 2018, against 2017, 31 kobo, poor result.