Firmly brushing aside the dithering, huffing and puffing of a segment of Ndigbo political intelligentsia, billionaire business mogul, influential politician and foremost philanthropist Dr. Arthur Eze sets an agenda for his people ahead of the 2015 presidential poll. This scenario is now provoking reactions from various national political stakeholders. LOUIS ACHI examines the implications of the agenda - both for the zone and larger Nigerian political calculations - and assesses reactions to the position

At press time, ahead of the all-important 2015 general elections,Ndigbo of the South East geopolitical zone of Nigeria are curiously yet to articulate a comprehensivepan-Igbo (or South-East) agenda to gain political power at the centre.The emerging consensus is that this footing will simply enhance the perception of Ndigbo as increasingly irrelevant to the running of affairs of the Nigerian state.

It can be recalled that in the previous polls (1999, 2003 and 2007) in the Fourth Republic, a strange haziness had shrouded plans and effective action by the South-east to gain political power at the centre. At every turn, the zone had been out martialed and boxed in by the superior intrigues of its peers.

Despite Ohaneze's braggadocio, it pitiably failed to provide the crucial leadership and political chemistry to cobble effective cross-zonal coalition to land the coveted presidency. Interestingly, in 2011, the zone backed the Goodluck Jonathan Presidency and did not field any candidate.

Against this background and subsisting fog, with a divided north planning recovery of power at the centre in 2015, it clearly became necessary that the self-inflicted stalemate of South-easterners be broken. And this was what billionaire businessman, one of the most important political voices in the South-east and philanthropist extra-ordinary did last week in Anambra State.

The sheer audacity of the agenda he set out is perhaps only matched by the personality of the man himself. But more importantly, he took a stand - at a time one was badly needed - to chart a clear political trajectory for his people in the medium and long term.

The Agenda...And Opposition

While President Goodluck Jonathan was on a one-day working visit to Anambra State last week,Dr. Eze who clearly had the mandate of several political leaders from the south-east zone, in a town-hall meeting, urged the president to begin preparations for another four-year tenure even as he assured him of the zone's total support. With Governor Peter Obi who has turned out to be the most progressive state chief executive of the zone providing a powerful support, Eze set out the political logic of his significant position.

"President OlusegunObasanjo from the South-west held power for eight years. We are calling on you Mr. President to take another four years as one term is clearly too short for you to finish the job you have at hand. You can consider giving power to the North after your eight years, so that that they will return it to the South-east after their own eight years."

Cut to the bone, Eze had simply defined a medium-term road map for three of Nigeria's six geo-political zones that could provide a reasoned stability for the nation's troubled journey of statehood. Reactions to Dr. Eze's agenda which came from several political parties and personalities took little time in coming. But curiously, much of the reactions focused on the messenger and spoke little about the message.

Speaking to LEADERSHIP, Rotimi Fashakin, the publicity secretary of the opposition Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) described the endorsement as crass materialism on the part of Eze. He said it was all about business ambition as it is capable of fetching him more millions as well as protection of his business.

His words: "Arthur Eze is a businessman and there is no businessman in Nigeria whose success in business is not tied to government patronage and protection. The endorsement is to feather his own nest. It is a way of being in the good books of the president." Fashakin also averred that Eze might also have been a forerunner to Jonathan's ambition since he is a powerful force to reckon with in the south-east PDP.

In a similar vein,Emma Eneukwu, the national publicity secretary of another opposition party, the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) described Eze as a businessman who wants protection of his businesses from the president. He however said that the president was wise enough and cannot be swayed by the antics of Eze.

"Well, Arthur Eze is a businessman. He will say something that will make the president protect his business. But the president knows better as I believe that he will not take another shot at the presidency after this tenure. It will amount to mere blindness if he does as he will be terribly disappointed."

Meanwhile, northern elders have expressed divergent opinions on the matter. While some who spoke to LEADERSHIP agreed that Dr. Eze or the South-east has the constitutional right to endorse whoever they want for an elective position, some were of the opinion that President Jonathan has no constitutional right to contest the position of the presidency again.

They believe that he has been sworn in twice as the president of the country. According toBarrister Muhammed Musa Soba, chairman of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) in Kaduna State, the group has the right to endorse even as he said that Jonathan has no constitutional right to contest the 2015 presidential elections.

Significantly, veteran politician and former governor of Kaduna State, AlhajiBalarabe Musa, said he has no problem with President Jonathan's endorsement byEze or the zone as it is within their right to do so.

From the South-east itself, in a statement reacting to Eze's position,OganiruNdigbo Foundation/Igboville, a quasi-political Igbo platform held that, "Whereas Ndigbo overwhelmingly supported the election of President Goodluck Jonathan in 2011 elections, we remain of the view that the President should not be distracted by relevance-seeking politicians with such calls, even when he is yet to deliver on his major promises to Ndigbo." The statement was signed by group's leaders comprising - EmekaMaduewesi (Leader); UcheOnuh Lucas (President General); Maxi Okwu; OkeyIgbokwe; OnyemaUche and ObichiIkechi.

They drew attention to what they alleged were Jonathan's failures so far to honour promises made to the Igbos, including construction of the second Niger Bridge within his first tenure; to convert Enugu Airport to an international hub; and to give roads in the South East urgently needed attention within his current tenure.

However, on a concilliatory note, the group said it was important to unequivocally state that while Ndigbo are not at war with President Jonathan, there is absolutely no reason, at this time, to endorse him or any other politician for 2015 election, especially as Ndigbo has already expressed interest in producing the best President of Nigeria in 2015.

Further according to OganiruNdigbo Foundation, "We are committed to working with Mr. President to achieve his electoral promises, especially as relates to Ndigbo. If by 2015 we review his performance and determine that he has done well enough to deserve second term, we will join authentic Igbo leaders to make our position known.

For now, we encourage the President to focus on his work including securing the life and properties of all Nigerians. The frequent massacre of Ndigbo in parts of the country by terrorists masquerading as religious zealots is giving us sleepless nights."

Implications

In giving expression to this position, the emerging consensus is that Dr. Eze, a renowned bridge-builder who has prominent friends in northern Nigeria may have peered into the troubled future of the Nigerian project and accurately read the handwriting on the wall.

Today, from all indications, the North has not mustered sufficient cross-zonal coalition required to stop Jonathan from running in 2015 nor has it built an alternative political platform from PDP to defeat the president in a presidential poll. The depressing history of South-west/Northern political coalitions reinforces the futility of such an option.

Viewed from another prism, some pundits believe that denying Jonathan (from the South - a region that has economically sustained Nigeria and have politically supported the north for decades) from serving two constitutional terms will amount to the north shooting itself in the foot and may lead to hitherto unforeseen instability.

On the other hand, if the North rejects political brinksmanship, allegedly currently expressed by the unprecedented security challenges - and buys into the Eze scenario, such would have a dramatic effect on the present instability scripted by a foggy agenda of ethno-Islamic militancy.

In effect, from the Eze agenda, the North should patiently wait for 2019 when a two-term Jonathan presidency would have lapsed and the South-east, 2023 - when a northern two-term outing would also have expired. In theory, these time-lines give both the North and South-east good time to get their acts together and build effective, intelligent, sustainable cross-zonal political coalitions.

The Calculations...

Even as the North plots the retrieval of power, the South-east, pundits hold must, as a distinct 'political' entity with a credible claim, begin to position itself appropriately, if power at the centre will come to it. The South-east today lacks a political party, outside the PDP, on which it can conceivably seek central power with.

However controversial it may seem, Eze's agenda offers a logical step forward; but it also requires that the South-east must engage both the North and Nigeria at large in a sophisticated discourse and forward planning which its political intelligentsia is quite capable of.

For the North, there is an increasing belief that all its current huffing and puffing may come to naught and may even imperil the Nigerian project. The emerging consensus is that a clear-eyed political engagement with the rest of Nigeria will serve its legitimate political aspiration much better.

The Ndigbo Dilemma

The Yoruba of South-western Nigeria had produced their first graduate, a lawyer by the name of Sapara Williams, by 1879. In the South-east by contrast, the first Igbo graduate could not emerge until about 1934 (behind the Efik in present Cross Rivers State). Notwithstanding this late start, Ndigbo were able to outrun the Efik and catch up with the Yoruba by the 1960s. It was their investment in education in the 1930s and 1940s that yielded the dividends of the sixties, which saw the flowering of all aspects of Igbo culture and life.

Notes Dr. IhechukwuMadubuike, former Minister of Education during the ShehuShagari presidency - "The Igbo spirit of enterprise, characterized by hard work and thrift was rewarded by the booming of its economy in the fifties and especially in the early sixties before the war.

The road network in the then Eastern Region was clearly the best in West Africa; and according to a research conducted by a premier university in the United States of America, the economy of Eastern Nigeria was rated as the fastest growing in the world, ahead of Malaysia, South Korea, China and Taiwan."

But today, Ndigbo are at a crossroads - culturally, economically, and politically. Beyond the attribution of the immediate cause of this state of affairs to the Nigerian-Biafran civil war, some analysts locate the reason for the slow rise of the Igbo in leap-frogging their political and economic dilemma in some of the immediate pre-war and post-war policies.

They readily cite the abolition of regions and the introduction of the state structure during and after the war, which removed the oil producing areas from Igbo control as one. But interestingly today, this is changing with Imo, Abia and most currently Anambra State making the oil producing states list.

On the Ndigbo list of woes is the indigenization policy of 1977 immediately following the end of the war when they had no money and therefore found it impossible to participate in the program, as another. A third reason often adduced by some analysts is the Igbo propensity for self-destruct, pivoting around a mule-headed republicanism which feeds the penchant for intra-group feud.

According to astute constitutional lawyer Professor Ben Nwabueze, "The Nigerian state has brought out the best and the worst in the Igbo, and exposed the other peoples in Nigeria to it. The best in the Igbo character excites fear in others, whilst the worst in him excites resentment and hatred.

And he is endowed by nature with rather liberal measure of both. His best is singularly good, his worst is singularly bad." Reactions to Eze's audacious proclamation bear this out. Some analysts of the unfolding political drama believe that Eze should step out fully as a key arrowhead of the new thinking and play a crucial role in the needed engagement of Ndigbo with Nigeria, given his weight and vision. This may then aid the final resolution of Ndigbo dilemma.

The future waits.

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