I want to know how Nigerians in Nigeria feel. Please don't tell me based on your emotions, love for him or hate for him, or tribal barbarism. What are people in the country talking about as far as GEJ? Is he generally popular? Again this is the country as a whole not yourself i want to hear about though you can include your own opinion.

Im in the US and from the looks of it GEJ isn't going to win. People will say "He'll rig" and all of that but I don't think there has been a successful attempt at rigging in Nigeria in the past 3 years. If you look objectively and base on facts alone, democracy in modern nigeria requires rigging but it also requires that you are ALSO popular because if an unpopular man wins a rigged mandate the air is too tense and things go up in flames. As little credit as Nigerians give themselves, the string of past successful elections and strengthening of institutions has matured nigeria's democracy. Take it from someone with family in politics, you can't force your way in anymore

I don't think he'll win though. The west doesn't and has never supported him, the north doesn't suppport him and it's only the SE and SS that are still strong holds. If the opposition finds a way of breaking the SE from the SS such as by fielding an igbo candidate than GEJ absolutely won't win. The most important aspect in all of this is the PDP is falling apart. The big men that binded it together seem to support GEJ less and less by the day and their respective power cliques are breaking further and further away from each other. Babangida and Atiku will support the Northern agenda whatever it may be and it seem that the region is adverse to GEJ's handling of affairs. OBJ seems in favor someone other than GEJ being in power as well. The rest are more and more focused on remaining steadfast with their 'regional voice'

No

I don't think there'll be a Nigeria by 2015 with the way things are going. Strong oppostion in the north (buhari and Atiku) will definitely not win. Except someone new and strong emerges. If the north doesn't produce a president, I don't think they'll take it lightly. Till then sha...

Patdedon: I don't think there'll be a Nigeria by 2015 with the way things are going. Strong oppostion in the north (buhari and Atiku) will definitely not win. Except someone new and strong emerges. If the north doesn't produce a president, I don't think they'll take it lightly. Till then sha...

If you hypothesis is true it just goes to show that the northerners are educated illiterate.
And as long as ethnic bigotry exist in the choice of who the president of Nigeria,then I doubt if Nigeria will ever get better

@Op,I get your point but as it stands OBJ and GEJ could still resolve their differences and he can still gather heavy weights to himself before the primaries.

But cosidering Patdedon's point,OBJ understand wats at stake.

This is realy going to be dicey,I will just keep my fingers crossed and see as events unfolds

First, your analysis on the situation on ground is very wrong, you really wrote like someone living abroad(No pun intended).
Second, the South West supported Jonathan in the last election but will not do that this time around, given their sophistication in Nigeria politics.
Third, have there been riggings in the past 3 years? methinks nothing has changed for the past 13 years. Will there still be rigging in 2015? Yes! But as you rightly said the popular candidate will rig.
Fourth, about my Igbo brothers, I am very sorry to say this, when it comes to Nigeria politics we are not just into it. Dont be surprised, that if Chinua Achebe or Rochas Okorocha comes out to square it out with Jonathan, my Igbo brethren will still find reasons to vote for Jonathan while advising their own Man to wait for his turn(My ethnic warlords no pun intended here, just the fact).
Lastly whether Jonathan will win? I say capital NO. He will be the first Nigeria incumbent president to be booted out based on cluelessness.
Have I answered your question? Good day!

oh sure. Not by merit though. Tru some pdp rigging. We gonna be saddled wit his incompetence for another tenure

Everything would depend on the tenacity of the opposition. As it stands today, the President will win convincingly, not because he is popular but because the opposition is weak and polarized.
Truth is the power at the disposal of the President to dispense financial favors would give him the edge in the primaries. In the popular vote, simple mathematics would give the PDP the edge. Infact, the opposition is worse off than it was 2 during the last election.

Most southerners wouldn't vote for a CPC sponsored candidate. In as much as there is a lot of dislike for Jonathan in the south right now(it stated right after the subsidy palaver), the dislike for Northerners(due to Boko Haram) far outweighs that for Jonathan.
I can bet you, you wouldn't get up to 10% of southerners right now even in the southwest that would vote a northern candidate.

The truth is, if the opposition must win, there is only one candidate that can be fielded that would have a good run. That candidate is Oshiomole and I will explain.
The South south and South East are Jonathan's stronghold. If you field Oshiomole, he will take the whole of the southwest comfortably and he will add Edo and a chunk of Delta states damaging Jonathan's strenth in the south. He would get a good showing in many south east states. In the North, Oshiomole can ride on his Kaduna connections. He lived in Kaduna for ages, speaks fluent Hausa, was the Chairman of the textile Union and has Muslim parents. He would definitely make healthy inroads in the north.
If the opposition must win, they should field Oshiomole at the top of the their ticket and look for a strong and young northerner to field as vice.

Objectively, 2013will determine so many issues. GEJ has promised steady power supply, construction of Lagos-Ibadan expressway, the Benin Ore road, importation of items locally produced have been banned, giving way for improvement of our economy, the PIB bill if passed will reposition that sector, already, GEJ has succeeded in reforming the electoral process, signed the FOI act and so on. If we put all theses together, I see him sitting tight for another 4yrs, though with our consent.
The opposition isn't doing so well to convince Nigerians and win their trust. TINUBU is compounding their problems. For now, I don't see them pulling through.

Olanlere11: Objectively, 2013will determine so many issues. GEJ has promised steady power supply, construction of Lagos-Ibadan expressway, the Benin Ore road, importation of items locally produced have been banned, giving way for improvement of our economy, the PIB bill if passed will reposition that sector, already, GEJ has succeeded in reforming the electoral process, signed the FOI act and so on. If we put all theses together, I see him sitting tight for another 4yrs, though with our consent.
The opposition isn't doing so well to convince Nigerians and win their trust. TINUBU is compounding their problems. For now, I don't see them pulling through.

instead of thinking too much...let me just follow ur comments here. U have said alot.

I wish there is a better candidate,but from all indication GEJ is still the only man standing,if he can turn things around I don't see anyone stopping him.

Joeadamu86: I wish there is a better candidate,but from all indication GEJ is still the only man standing,if he can turn things around I don't see anyone stopping him.

As much as I believe people should be given more than just one chance, I honestly don't see GEJ as standing right now! I initially had very high hopes for him but ended up not voting for him! Now, I am glad I didn't! But if he surprises me today, I will praise him! Sadly, I doubt that will happen when I look at how corruption has become a god we worship under him!

Any, repeat "ANY" anti-corruption crusader who has a pedigree will trounce him in 2015

Definitely NO.

President Jonathan will not win in 2015 if he decide to contest.

He is a bad president.

nuclearboy:

As much as I believe people should be given more than just one chance, I honestly don't see GEJ as standing right now! I initially had very high hopes for him but ended up not voting for him! Now, I am glad I didn't! But if he surprises me today, I will praise him! Sadly, I doubt that will happen when I look at how corruption has become a god we worship under him!

Any, repeat "ANY" anti-corruption crusader who has a pedigree will trounce him in 2015

To be fair to GEJ corruption has been in Nigeria since time immemorial.....

juman: Definitely NO.

President Jonathan will not win in 2015 if he decide to contest.

He is a bad president.

Being a bad president doesn't equate to losing elections. If a country ius filled with bad people, then a bad president would be very popular. The last I checked, Nigeria has more than enough bad people, so if you think the president ids bad, then he is surely coasting to victory!
Good people always stay at home during lections, bad people do the voting. Jonathan will win except the opposition learns politics.

look now they have made plans for 2015 and beyond already this is just stupidity hes of course going to win by rigging the ballot boxes and through corruption look obj undoubtedly is the most power fullest man Nigeria today and will always be until he dies and if gej and obj fall out then gej will not be a candidate so lets hope for that.

There are a lot of issues to think about before you can answer the question.

This is the general feeling as at the moment.

If the opposition brings in a Moslem from the core north, even a goat will square with him for the race.

Yet, Jonathan still have time to increase popularity.
And yet again, the sentiments that saw Jonathan win are still here with us.

The opposition is no different from the ruling party. Nigeria is a jungle.

Ode, instead of asking whether GEJ would finish this term he was running after 2015. U be God?

Joeadamu86: To be fair to GEJ corruption has been in Nigeria since time immemorial.....

True, but corruption has reached a new level in his tenure. Saying that, if he contest, I would stil vote for him if that would accelerate the break up of the country.

You have to look at it in zone.

The North and SW would most likely not vote for him.
The SS would vote for him
The SE, I doubt he'll get their vote this time around.

All together, I don't see him winning without rigging.

saxywale:
True, but corruption has reached a new level in his tenure. Saying that, if he contest, I would stil vote for him if that would accelerate the break up of the country.

how much did ur brother spend on power alone?cross check ur fact b4 making unneccessary comment.

A very solid thread by the OP, you have also made a strong arguments, and seem to understand the game

Speaking from an emotional perspective - this is what the masses feel: -- Jonathan's tenure has brough nothing but sorrow, from rise in umemployment levels, to increase in the cost of fuel and death in the north , to theft of pension funds and consistent court hearing's outside Nigerian shore's for crimes largely committed in Nigeria.

People, dont feel safe anymore - thier are folks who married northerner and northerners who married southerner - have you thought of how the fare in such times. What of the bankers that lost thier jobs and even committed suicide for joblessness. Nigeria been insulted and threatened by tiny countries and so much more.

Half of these did not occur in OBJ or Yar'dua regime did they - so i would like to ask , those Nigerian's who say Jonathan inherited problems to tell the masses where the problems came from.

Speaking from a political perceptive - for the well informed, free minded and wise Nigerians -- I keep saying it over and over again, Jonathan is a patsy and his time is up. If he had more administrative and political experience he may have controlled the situation and come out on top like OBAMA but he is not a politician.
He is a man drive more or less by the thought that he comes from an oil producing state ..blah blah

Name 1 project jonathan has completed that affects the poor man directly, the Nigerian man is hardworking and has survived this from government hand outs and tax cuts like the west but from sheer resilience. He has done nothing economically! How many of Jonathan's project are completed, like fashola he only has ongoing projects and those completed have nothing to do with the Nigerian economy or Nigerians welfare.

Someone mentioned Jona has fallen out of favour and the PDP is losing footing - this is a stronger reason why he will not make it in the primaries. Is Jonathan more politically experienced than Atiku, what makes you think he can even get a consideration. Though, rumours have it that Anenih from Edo state is now his right hand man, Jona forgets Anenih, OBJ and ATIKU are like salt and water. These are the same men that made him over N 2Billion richer, you think a couple of hi's and hello's will make him an ally.

Jonathan has no one's support and his downfall began with the fuel subsidy.

Im in the US and from the looks of it GEJ isn't going to win.

If you look objectively and base on facts alone, democracy in modern nigeria requires rigging but it also requires that you are ALSO popular because if an unpopular man wins a rigged mandate the air is too tense and things go up in flames.

The big men th

at binded it together seem to support GEJ less and less by the day and their respective power cliques are breaking further and further away from each other.

Second, the South West supported Jonathan in the last election but will not do that this time around, given their sophistication in Nigeria politics.

he truth is, if the opposition must win, there is only one candidate that can be fielded that would have a good run. That candidate is Oshiomole and I will explain.
The South south and South East are Jonathan's stronghold. If you field Oshiomole, he will take the whole of the southwest comfortably and he will add Edo and a chunk of Delta states damaging Jonathan's strenth in the south. He would get a good showing in many south east states. In the North, Oshiomole can ride on his Kaduna connections. He lived in Kaduna for ages, speaks fluent Hausa, was the Chairman of the textile Union and has Muslim parents. He would definitely make healthy inroads in the north.

I see him sitting tight for another 4yrs, though with our consent.

If the opposition brings in a Moslem from the core north, even a goat will square with him for the race.

shut up yes he will win unless obj opposes no more you can talk all you like and i will read but its just pure nonsense thank you.

@OP

You must be having a laugh! GEJ for another four years ?

HELL NO !