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Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts - Investment (1455) - Nairaland

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Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by tunene66: 7:25pm On Mar 24, 2016
jauntty:
I bought at 1.99.... NSE is unpredictable, you might just be in for a surprise

I bought some Ucap shares at 1.98 today
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Godisfaithful: 7:26pm On Mar 24, 2016
Mfunkynation:
@Godisfaithful n at huz, pls if i sold my uba on 29th am i qualifyf for dividends. when is dia mark down beginning?

You will not qualified for dividend. You will have to wait till March 30th, 2016 which represent closure of their book grin
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Nobody: 7:48pm On Mar 24, 2016
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Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by iyb(m): 7:59pm On Mar 24, 2016
NuttyChoky:


I jumped out of transcorp today @ N1.18k

If they have a dividend yield of 4% na God grin grin grin
i still dey transcorp i need it to increase even 10kobo is ok for me i am not too greedy
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by iyb(m): 8:01pm On Mar 24, 2016
tunene66:


I bought some Ucap shares at 1.98 today
dividend chopping mode activated grin
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by perewesley(m): 8:38pm On Mar 24, 2016
Zenith declared 1.55 div....how much (in terms of NGN) do you guys reckon they'll mark down by ?
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by spinoff: 8:39pm On Mar 24, 2016
ifeykay:


Any single trade of 50,000 units and above (for stocks priced N99 or less) results in a price change. If this happens to be the last trade price for that day it then becomes the closing price for that stock.

However, a stock priced more than N100 requires only 10,000 units of single trade to result into price change.

Hope this helps.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Raider76: 9:33pm On Mar 24, 2016
perewesley:
Zenith declared 1.55 div....how much (in terms of NGN) do you guys reckon they'll mark down by ?

I would think they will mark down by the same N1.55. So as the price closed at N13.00 today, it will open at N11.45 on Tuesday. But I may be wrong.

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ExLaidback: 9:35pm On Mar 24, 2016
NuttyChoky:

Results of some of the subsidiaries (Insurance) were published this week and their earnings grew... The main problem is the banking subsidiary that had huge O&G impairment provisions

Yeah, even the banking subsidiary's income grew y-o-y from the 9 months result but net income suffered from impaiment charges like you said. However last year they had good results but still chose to hand out peanuts due to the reason I stated. So frankly I'm not very confident of this year's corporate action. The board had a meeting on the 22nd after a closed period and still didn't release results, although the longer they hold, the more beneficial it is to me. Anyway keeping the fingers crossed. It's going to be good. It has to be good
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Intendy: 9:39pm On Mar 24, 2016
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Intendy: 9:39pm On Mar 24, 2016

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by megainvest: 7:52am On Mar 25, 2016
ExLaidback:


Yeah, even the banking subsidiary's income grew y-o-y from the 9 months result but net income suffered from impaiment charges like you said. However last year they had good results but still chose to hand out peanuts due to the reason I stated. So frankly I'm not very confident of this year's corporate action. The board had a meeting on the 22nd after a closed period and still didn't release results, although the longer they hold, the more beneficial it is to me. Anyway keeping the fingers crossed. It's going to be good. It has to be good

I like this discussion on FBNH. This to me is the next stock to watch out for because it can go either way right now. It is still very feasible going by all the records, for them to declare 60k dividend and at the same time, it is also possible for them to declare just 10k!

Last year, they declared 10k and 1:10 bonus. That can be equated to about N1.05 based on the share price at that time. As at Q3, PAT had dropped by 9.7% YoY to N50.2 billion. Even if the increased impairment losses and CBN fines shave off another 22 billion from the FY results, they can still comfortably pay 60k dividend going by the payout ratio of about 40% of EPS in 2014. However, the management has also said severally that they will increase profit retention which means lower payout ratio (maybe 30% EPS?).

FBNH can also decide to be stingy because they have every reason to do so this year. They have suffered so many losses and have even issued a profit warning. This is enough for them to deceive investors with and hide under the cover of "profit warning" to declare a paltry 10k. It is very unlikely for them to declare bonus shares this time.

In all, investors who have a very strong heart can take a huge risk on FBNH right now. Short termers need to remain very cautious. Long termers do not need to panic at all. In fact, this is an opportunity for a lifetime. I just bought some significant volumes yesterday. I am ready for whatever outcome FBNH comes out with.

We all expect a 10k dividend this year. At least there was a press release that the board will consider dividend payment in their meeting. But Just Imagine for a second what will happen to FBNH share price if they declare anything above 50k.

Do your DD. Follow me at your own risk!

8 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Agbalowomeri: 9:09am On Mar 25, 2016
megainvest:


I like this discussion on FBNH. This to me is the next stock to watch out for because it can go either way right now. It is still very feasible going by all the records, for them to declare 60k dividend and at the same time, it is also possible for them to declare just 10k!

Last year, they declared 10k and 1:10 bonus. That can be equated to about N1.05 based on the share price at that time. As at Q3, PAT had dropped by 9.7% YoY to N50.2 billion. Even if the increased impairment losses and CBN fines shave off another 22 billion from the FY results, they can still comfortably pay 60k dividend going by the payout ratio of about 40% of EPS in 2014. However, the management has also said severally that they will increase profit retention which means lower payout ratio (maybe 30% EPS?).

FBNH can also decide to be stingy because they have every reason to do so this year. They have suffered so many losses and have even issued a profit warning. This is enough for them to deceive investors with and hide under the cover of "profit warning" to declare a paltry 10k. It is very unlikely for them to declare bonus shares this time.

In all, investors who have a very strong heart can take a huge risk on FBNH right now. Short termers need to remain very cautious. Long termers do not need to panic at all. In fact, this is an opportunity for a lifetime. I just bought some significant volumes yesterday. I am ready for whatever outcome FBNH comes out with.

We all expect a 10k dividend this year. At least there was a press release that the board will consider dividend payment in their meeting. But Just Imagine for a second what will happen to FBNH share price if they declare anything above 50k.

Do your DD. Follow me at your own risk!

The share price will only gain 15%
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by iyb(m): 9:46am On Mar 25, 2016
Fear FBNH grin slow elephant

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by zendi: 10:06am On Mar 25, 2016
Agbalowomeri:


The share price will only gain 15%
What I think will move the stock and the entire sector, more than any dividend, is if the result generally, especially the PAT, turns out not as bad as feared right now.

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Nobody: 10:10am On Mar 25, 2016
Born2berich:
The current price of UBA is N3.60
N3.60 X 10,000 units= N36,000 value


@house, so sorry, I've been away for a while.

@swimcash, in addition to the 36k, Uba unbundled its subsidiaries, so you will also have units of ubcap and afriprud.

ubcap, afriprud and Uba have been paying dividends since then. Afriprud once gave a 1 for 1 bonus too.

My advise is that you open a stock account. Then visit afriprud registrars to know the total no of these share you have and the unclaimed div.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Nobody: 10:21am On Mar 25, 2016
gbolah4real:

Supported.
And also, what was the amount she actually invested?

Well, the information you seek has been posted long time ago. I made 9% at the highest price I bought zenith and 20% at the cheapest price I bought it.

At how much she actually invested-? enough to buy 2 plots of land in a new estate (perimeter fenced,tarred road, central sewage etc with docs) in new pottharcourt.

Any more cross examination?
grin
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Raider76: 11:02am On Mar 25, 2016
mercylicious:


Well, the information you seek has been posted long time ago. I made 9% at the highest price I bought zenith and 20% at the cheapest price I bought it.

At how much she actually invested-? enough to buy 2 plots of land in a new estate (perimeter fenced,tarred road, central sewage etc with docs) in new pottharcourt.

Any more cross examination?
grin

Thanks Sis. I can see why div is not so important to you. I need to fine tune my entry points. They say you make money when you buy and not when you sell. BTW where is this New PH? Can you post a Google maps link? I want to have a holiday place in the south. Some place I can hide and think. Happy Easter.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by angelo82: 11:29am On Mar 25, 2016
megainvest:


I like this discussion on FBNH. This to me is the next stock to watch out for because it can go either way right now. It is still very feasible going by all the records, for them to declare 60k dividend and at the same time, it is also possible for them to declare just 10k!

Last year, they declared 10k and 1:10 bonus. That can be equated to about N1.05 based on the share price at that time. As at Q3, PAT had dropped by 9.7% YoY to N50.2 billion. Even if the increased impairment losses and CBN fines shave off another 22 billion from the FY results, they can still comfortably pay 60k dividend going by the payout ratio of about 40% of EPS in 2014. However, the management has also said severally that they will increase profit retention which means lower payout ratio (maybe 30% EPS?).

FBNH can also decide to be stingy because they have every reason to do so this year. They have suffered so many losses and have even issued a profit warning. This is enough for them to deceive investors with and hide under the cover of "profit warning" to declare a paltry 10k. It is very unlikely for them to declare bonus shares this time.

In all, investors who have a very strong heart can take a huge risk on FBNH right now. Short termers need to remain very cautious. Long termers do not need to panic at all. In fact, this is an opportunity for a lifetime. I just bought some significant volumes yesterday. I am ready for whatever outcome FBNH comes out with.

We all expect a 10k dividend this year. At least there was a press release that the board will consider dividend payment in their meeting. But Just Imagine for a second what will happen to FBNH share price if they declare anything above 50k.

Do your DD. Follow me at your own risk!

There is probability that the share price of FBNH may likely go down more until they start releasing sound result.The stock may bounce back by this time next year if they declare juicy dividend.

2 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by peptola: 11:50am On Mar 25, 2016
angelo82:

There is probability that the share price of FBNH may likely go down more until they start releasing sound result.The stock may bounce back by this time next year if they declare juicy dividend.
mercylicious:


oh, so sorry. i just saw the closure date is next week. i thought its this week.
The right thing i shld have said is dt i will monitor d price movts and sell anytime i see sideways trading.

grin
Agbalowomeri:

The share price will only gain 15%

Like Agbalowomeri has rightfully said even if price goes up now it cannot do more than 15%. Without the announcement of a thrilling result going up from N3.50 is next to impossible. I foresee FBNH price heading down! Lower.

4 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ExLaidback: 11:58am On Mar 25, 2016
[quote author=megainvest post=44087030]

I like this discussion on FBNH. /quote]
Yeah I agree, FBNH is at a precarious position right now.

Investor confidence in its stock seems to be waning due to its stock performance last week after its board meeting.

Now if I want to go by some analysts views of FBNH after its 2014 result, if I'm not mixing things up, it was expected to go into the market to source funds with a public offering. When you add that to statements of the directors hammering on profit retention in order to shore up equity, then a low pay out ratio of its EPS appears very likely.

I've been hoping for a dividend of within 30K - 35K. 50K seems quite high as it would connote a yield of over 13% using it's 50-day moving average price (or 15% if you use it's last close price) and this is not consistent with the industry average, so I don't want to develop BP thinking about it. grin

I have other reasons to watch the stock though, as it has tied me down for a while now. And yeah I agree short termers may not have the stomach for some of what may happen, but for long term investors, anything is game. Ultimately, i think the market may be too bearish right now for a 15% div yield at most to create a significant and lasting rally

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Coolcash1: 1:31pm On Mar 25, 2016
If you are a long term investor, please go for FBNH...Its not uncommon to see growth investors holding more units of such stock...
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by megainvest: 1:34pm On Mar 25, 2016
zendi:

What I think will move the stock and the entire sector, more than any dividend, is if the result generally, especially the PAT, turns out not as bad as feared right now.

I believe PAT will be better than expected. I have gone through FBNH's accounts and earnings call transcripts and it seems that although PAT will be lower than in 2014, it may not fall below 20% YoY.

If you listen to the Q3 earning call again, you will hear when a question was asked about the provisioning for Atlantic Energy loan. Management mentioned that if they have to make provisions for it, it is not likely to exceed 10% for Q4. I also recall there was news that Atlantic Energy had come up with a payment plan sometime in November 2015.

As a shareholder, the greater immediate concern with FBNH is the increased retention. The price has already adjusted to the impairment news. The problem is that Investors do not know how much retention FBNH is aiming at this time. Significantly higher retention means that payout will be much lower. However, it will be very unfair of the management to reduce payout by more than 50%.

3 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by EDUECO(m): 1:54pm On Mar 25, 2016
FBNH's net profit for the 2015 Full Year would likely fall between 60 to 70 billion NGN and dividend would likely be between 40 to 80 Kobo.

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by megainvest: 1:58pm On Mar 25, 2016
An Excerpt from 9m earnings call:


Q: Hi, sorry, came on late on the call, but just on your OpEx, can you just kind of walk us through why the sharp drop in personnel cost? This is for the three months to September. And could you also clarify the Atlantic Energy exposure. I know I just joined the call just now. Could you repeat this if it was asked before? Thank you
.
.
.

A: Okay, as to your question on Atlantic Energy, this is one exposure that is taking significant management attention. Currently, the account is still performing. We are cautiously optimistic that we'll resolve all the issues regarding Atlantic Energy before the end of the year, so we're not looking at making impairment charges at this time.

Q: What kind of impairment are we looking at in the event the deal doesn't close?

A: In the event that this doesn't close, we still have windows of opportunity. There is a deal that is on the table right now. If that deal doesn't work out, there will be another one. However, even if this deal doesn't close and we need to make an impairment, it probably won't be more than 10% impairment, let's say, in the next three months.

3 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by fxuser: 2:00pm On Mar 25, 2016
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by fxuser: 2:01pm On Mar 25, 2016
fxuser:


expected .. beers would be happy

bears ! oops
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Raider76: 2:35pm On Mar 25, 2016
fxuser:


expected .. beers would be happy

It has been hovering around N1.00. May be now it will move down and join FCMB and Unity.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Agbalowomeri: 3:08pm On Mar 25, 2016
megainvest:


I believe PAT will be better than expected. I have gone through FBNH's accounts and earnings call transcripts and it seems that although PAT will be lower than in 2014, it may not fall below 20% YoY.

If you listen to the Q3 earning call again, you will hear when a question was asked about the provisioning for Atlantic Energy loan. Management mentioned that if they have to make provisions for it, it is not likely to exceed 10% for Q4. I also recall there was news that Atlantic Energy had come up with a payment plan sometime in November 2015.

As a shareholder, the greater immediate concern with FBNH is the increased retention. The price has already adjusted to the impairment news. The problem is that Investors do not know how much retention FBNH is aiming at this time. Significantly higher retention means that payout will be much lower. However, it will be very unfair of the management to reduce payout by more than 50%.

So you think FBNH cannot report a loss?

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mfunkynation(m): 3:19pm On Mar 25, 2016
EDUECO:
FBNH's net profit for the 2015 Full Year would likely fall between 60 to 70 billion NGN and dividend would likely be between 40 to 80 Kobo.
pls when is uba mark down date since closure of register is 30th March – 5th April 2016?
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mfunkynation(m): 4:06pm On Mar 25, 2016
pls wen trading resume on 29th which is ZEE closure, am entitle to dividends n free to sell off?

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