BY GABRIEL ZOWAM
IN the first part of my
contribution, we looked at
Nigeria’s oil revenue, 1970 to
2006, and summarised the
revenue streams as follows:
“Gross oil revenue in the 29
years, from 1970 to 1999
3.0 “Gross oil revenue in the
next 7 years (from 2000 to
2006) 20.8
Total 23.8 .
We saw that our cumulative
oil revenue in the 29 years,
from 1970 to 1999, was only
N3 trillion; while a whopping
N20.8 trillion was received in
the next seven years, from
2000 to 2006!
We also observed that while
we could easily point at
many things government
achieved from the N3 trillion
of the first (mostly military)
29 years, it was not the same
for the N20.8 trillion of the
following seven democracy
years (2000 to 2006). We can
draw many unmistakable
lessons from this!
Unmistakable Lessons
A dead end! Every year, since
the advent of this democracy,
the lion share of our nation’s
resources has gone to
“recurrent expenditure”,
which is what our
democracy uses on itself, as
its own fuel (as against
capital expenditure, which it
uses to create development).
In this way, our democracy is
presently consuming over 70
percent of federal
government’s budget. In
2003, during the windfall, it
was over 80 percent! The
situation is even worse at
the state and local
government levels. How then
will development come?
It is time to come to terms
with the reality of this
democracy: It has absolutely
no capacity to develop us,
the way it is going. It is an
unmistakable dead end!
Not a problem of funds. As
we saw in Part I, the
resources available to
government for developing
the nation, doubled, tripled,
and increased many folds,
during this democracy; but
without anything to show
for it.Therefore, there is no
basis to expect our lots to
improve, even if the
resources available to this
democracy should once
again increase. Our problem
is not that of inadequate
resources.
The 13 percent derivation
controversy: That also makes
it laughable, when some
northern state governors try
to attribute the poverty in
their states to the 13 percent
derivation amount going to
the oil-producing
communities.Even if that 13
percent is completely
withdrawn and shared to all
the federating units, how
much will each state get as
increase? Is that what will
eradicate the poverty that
these states failed to
eradicate, when their
allocations doubled, tripled,
quadrupled, and increased
many folds, between 1999
and 2006?
President Goodluck
Jonathan
The military as saints? Our
politicians are fond of
blaming our nation’s woes
on the military. But is it not
an irony that after 13 years
of democracy, almost
everything left of our
collapsed infrastructure, is a
legacy of the military era?
Even in terms of corruption,
is their N3 trillion vs. our
politicians’ N20.8 trillion not
making them look like
saints? In any case, is the
average Nigerian better
today, after 13 years of
democracy, than in 1999,
even with the N20.8 trillion
windfall? The NBS figures for
2010 show that over 112
million Nigerians now live in
poverty compared to 67
million in 1996!
Loot repatriation
programme: As offensive as
it might sound, should we
not start thinking of a
national programme to
encourage a friendly
laundering of our looted
funds (for example, a reverse
loots-inflow, through real
investment projects that can
create jobs and reduce
poverty) instead of
continuing with our
uninspiring fight against
money laundering?
As angry as most of us may
find this, will it not be better
than seeing the loots trickle
back in the form of private
planes and luxurious yachts,
which are only aggravating
our nation’s woes?
Opportunities in the global
economy: Our democracy,
designed around statutory
allocations, does not fit into
the global economy.
Meanwhile, other countries,
including those we used to
consider poorer, are reaping
the vast, unlimited
opportunities of that
economy; and overtaking us!
We can still remember when
Indian professionals (both
men and women) flooded
this country, teaching even in
our secondary schools.
Today, while we face
escalating poverty with a
federal government budget
under N5 trillion, India’s
export revenue in 2011
(without oil), was over N45
trillion! Its software industry
alone, is expecting to rake in
N10.5 trillion, in 2012!
Similarly, China is today being
celebrated for the giants
strides of its export-driven
economy. But it is estimated
that more than 50 percent of
China’s exports are not by
Chinese companies, but by
foreign-based multinationals
operating in China.
WHY can’t such
multinationals
operate from Nigeria? The
answer is that our
democracy, designed purely
for “statutory allocations”,
does not even see the global
economy. Instead, our
governors focus all their
energies, scheming to
protect, or increase their
miserable statutory
allocations.
Ironically, this jostling for
more allocations illustrates
the tragic resource-trap of
this democracy, and the
greatest threat to our
national unity. Since the
shareable pool is not
increasing, and you can only
grab more allocation by
scheming to reduce the
allocations going to other
federating units, we can
expect this jostling to get
nastier in the coming years,
as the pressure for more
resources (and attendant
frustrations) build up.
Fifty percent civil service
reduction: The CBN Governor,
Mallam Sanusi Lamido Sanusi,
recently came under very
stringent attacks for daring
to propose a 50 percent cut
in the size of the
bureaucracy.
Poor Sanusi! It is an irony
that the few public officials
that dare to query our
dysfunctional system, are
often the most vilified! Yet,
the nation owes its little
progress to such persons. In
a free-enterprise system, the
role of government is to
create the necessary
infrastructure and enabling
environment for businesses
to come in and do what they
are best at – that is creating
jobs and wealth for the
society. It is disastrous when
government assumes the
role of the big employer, and
spends all the nation’s
resources paying the salaries
of its officials, who are a tiny
fraction of the population!
How many citizens can
government employ?
Compare it with India, where
the software industry alone
creates direct and indirect
employment for 12 million
people (high-quality jobs, not
the artificial, NAPEP-type)!
All the same, the real point I
want to make is that this
democracy is simply not
structured for prudence and
productivity. For example,
even if a retrenchment takes
place under this government,
the next administration will
simply reverse it. The
Obasanjo administration did
some retrenchment; but as
Mallam el-Rufai once
lamented, the Yar’Adua’s
administration restored
many of those retrenched;
and of course, brought in its
own wave of new people.
There is no incentive to be
productive in an “is-it-your-
father’s-money” democracy.
In any case, what is the goal
of carrying out such a
retrenchment? If it is to free
more funds (and put some
funds into government’s
hands for development), my
question will be: And so
what? Didn’t we see such
resources double, triple, and
increase many folds, from
1999 to 2006? What was the
result? This democracy is just
not structured for prudence
and productivity!
Long stay for poverty:
Elementary logic should tell
us that our current poverty
problem can only get worse.
Every year, this democracy
spends over 70 percent of
the nation’s resources on
itself. And we dare not talk of
slashing the bureaucracy, as
Mallam Sanusi has been
warned. So how will poverty
be eradicated? Meanwhile,
the oil revenue on which this
democracy was structured, is
not growing, while our
population (which the
revenue should cater for)
continues to grow every
year, meaning that the
resource pool will become
more and more inadequate.
So how will poverty go? It is
a dead-end!
Conclusions Going Forward
The real damage the military
has done to Nigeria, is the
disastrous democratic
structure it foisted on us,
which has become a direct
engine of poverty,
unemployment, collapsed
infrastructure, collapsed
education and health
systems, and spiralling inter-
ethnic hatred!
Our politicians have only one
wise option: to take
advantage of the ongoing
Constitutional amendment,
and surgically repair the
flaws of this democracy! It is
probably our last chance to
get things right before 2015,
already predicted (by those
we dare not ignore) for our
national disintegration.
Ironically, as if in enthusiastic
endorsement of that
prediction, we seem to be
galloping towards 2015 with
spiralling forces of violence
and inter-tribal hatred!
I have a special note of
warning for those politicians
clamouring that it is “our
turn”, and even for the
opposition parties jostling to
take over the government.
The last thing Nigeria needs
today is our usual ethnic-
minded, rogue-politics.
Nigeria’s democracy is
gasping for statesmen –
those who can, for once,
look out for themselves and
their tribes by looking out
for their country!
Finally, our governors, the
National Assembly, and the
Presidency must not give the
impression that this
democracy is incapable of
correcting its tragic flaws; or
that the military needs to
come back to do the
correction! May the
Ekweremadu Committee save
the day!

Excellent piece!