[img]http://qzprod.files./2013/01/screen-shot-2013-01-17-at-10-58-42-am.png?w=881&h=453[/img]

http://www.pwc.com/en_GX/gx/world-2050/assets/pwc-world-in-2050-report-january-2013.pdf


''Though we remain wary of oracles and fortune-tellers, a new report by PwC highlights some of the profound global economic shifts we at Quartz believe are well underway.

The sages at PwC forecast that between now and 2050:

The fastest growing economy will be… Nigeria. Followed by Vietnam, India, and Indonesia. Chinese growth will slow down due to a rapidly aging population and rising labor costs.''

http://qz.com/44559/nigeria-and-pwc-economic-outlook-for-2050/

GREAT Report, and Very very possible..esp,once we fix our public power.

That's why am very closely following and praying for the success of the ongoing Power sector Reforms (PHCN Privatization et al), which is presently on its concluding stages.....

THIS NATION WILL LIVE UP TO THE PROMISE IT SO CLEARLY HOLDS..Amen

Sorry to rain on the parade, but I think it is rather important we situate some of the indices being banded around in an appropriate context.
While it is important not to lose faith, this incessant fawning over heights not yet attained is not in Nigeria's interest.

The myth of Africa's rise

Recent high growth rates and increased foreign investment in Africa have given rise to the popular idea that the continent may well be on track to become the next global economic powerhouse. This "Africa Rising" narrative has been most prominently presented in recent cover stories by Time Magazine and The Economist. Yet both publications are wrong in their analysis of Africa's developmental prospects -- and the reasons they're wrong speak volumes about the problematic way national economic development has come to be understood in the age of globalization.

Both articles use unhelpful indicators to gauge Africa's development. They looked to Africa's recent high GDP growth rates, rising per capita incomes and the explosive growth of mobile phones and mobile phone banking as evidence that Africa is "developing." Time referred to the growth in sectors such as tourism, retail and banking, and also cited countries with new discoveries of oil and gas reserves. The Economist pointed to the growth in the number of African billionaires and the increase in Africa's trade with the rest of the world.

But these indicators only give a partial picture of how well development is going -- at least as the term has been understood over the last few centuries. From late 15th century England all the way up to the East Asian Tigers of recent renown, development has generally been taken as a synonym for "industrialization." Rich countries figured out long ago, if economies are not
moving out of dead-end activities that only provide diminishing returns over time (primary agriculture and extractive activities such as mining, logging, and fisheries), and into activities that provide increasing returns over time (manufacturing and services), then you can't really say they are developing.

What's striking about the two articles cited above is that they don't mention manufacturing, or its disturbing absence, in Africa. And that, in turn, confirms once again the extent to which the idea of development as industrialization has been completely abandoned in the last few decades. Free market economics has come to advise poor countries to stick with their current primary agriculture and extractives industries and "integrate" into the global economy as they are. Today, for many champions of free markets, the mere presence of GDP growth and an increase in trade volumes are euphemisms for successful economic development. But increased growth and trade are not development.

Read More

eGuerrilla: Sorry to rain down on the parade, but I think it is rather important we situate some of the indices being banded around in an appropriate context.
While it is important not to lose faith, this incessant fawning over heights not yet attained is not in Nigeria's interest.

Read More

No mind the attention seeking Op. The same guy once claimed Nigeria's economy has greatly improved because D'Banj owns an aston martins. Let him keep forecasting like we are pool addicts or meteorologists when the reality says otherwise!

take dat: No mind the attention seeking Op. The same guy once claimed Nigeria's economy has greatly improved because D'Banj owns an aston martins. Let him keep forecasting like we are pool addicts or meteorologists when the reality says otherwise!

Comrade,

@OP has good intentions, no doubt.
Problem is, his current trajectory leaves little or no room for relevant details.

eGuerrilla:

Comrade,

@OP has good intentions, no doubt.
Problem is, his current trajectory leaves little or no room for relevant details.

He failed to provide indices used and he expects us to be optimistic. We all pray Nigeria gets better though!

This is erroneous in that what has been done is to take current data and extrapolate into later years thus ignoring risk and uncertainties in those years.

Conditions that exist today will not be the same in 10, 15, 20 and 30 years time and this is thus a terrible methodology in forecasting.

ballabriggs: This is erroneous in that what has been done is to take current data and extrapolate into later years thus ignoring risk and uncertainties in those years.

Conditions that exist today will not be the same in 10, 15, 20 and 30 years time and this is thus a terrible methodology in forecasting.

The future is 50/50. It's just as likely to go awry as it is to go rosily, so the common sense, middle ground solution is to ignore that element.

And what makes you think other nations in the survey don't also have risk and uncertainty?

take dat: No mind the attention seeking Op. The same guy once claimed Nigeria's economy has greatly improved because D'Banj owns an aston martins. Let him keep forecasting like we are pool addicts or meteorologists when the reality says otherwise!

Liars like you will never know peace. You obviously cannot present a reasoned rebuttal hence your recourse to lies about what I supposedly said. And I'm not the one 'forecasting' anything. I'm just educating you on what the experts have researched.

And ''the reality'' says power supply has doubled in the last two years among other notable improvements.

eGuerrilla: Sorry to on the parade, but I think it is rather important we situate some of the indices being banded around in an appropriate context.
While it is important not to lose faith, this incessant fawning over heights not yet attained is not in Nigeria's interest.

Read More

increased power output inter alia is leading to a transformation in the Nigerian manufacturing sector, despite your article's claims.

See:

http://dailyindependentnig.com/2012/12/nigerias-manufacturing-sector-in-2012/

Rossikk:

The future is 50/50. It's just as likely to go awry as it is to go rosily, so the common sense, middle ground solution is to ignore that element.

And what makes you think other nations in the survey don't also have risk and uncertainty?

And that is why what you have posted there is not to be taken serious, could go either way. Different nations, different years, different levels of uncertainties and risks, different country factors, all these have not been taken into consideration, what we have is a wild overly optimistic estimate.

Terrible in my honest opinion.

And look at these, "Chinese growth will slow down due to a rapidly aging population and rising labor costs".

What they have tried to apply here is what Robert Solow in his economic growth theory refers to as "convergence". However,till date we are still yet to see "convergence" as suggested by Solow. What we have seen for years is the gap between developing and developed countries mainly due to the rate of technical progress.

The theory has its merits, explains a lot about growth but still leaves a lot unanswered in growth Economics.

i dey laf ooo

Rossikk:
Liars like you will never know peace. You obviously cannot present a reasoned rebuttal hence your recourse to lies about what I supposedly said. And I'm not the one 'forecasting' anything. I'm just educating you on what the experts have researched.

And ''the reality'' says power supply has doubled in the last two years among other notable improvements.

Was insecurity from bodies like Boko Haram factore in this report was corruption and false patriotism also factored .

The worst thing Hitler thought the world is the use of media propaganda!

Rossikk:
Liars like you will never know peace. You obviously cannot present a reasoned rebuttal hence your recourse to lies about what I supposedly said. And I'm not the one 'forecasting' anything. I'm just educating you on what the experts have researched.

And ''the reality'' says power supply has doubled in the last two years among other notable improvements.

Dumb kid wants a reasoned rebuttal on the trash he posted. Even if I accept that there is a slight improvement in power supply, if we keep having this failed political class plus a complicated socio-political environment, are we sure there is going to be a Nigeria in the nearest future or you assume that improvement in power supply is all we need to stay as one? A country that has not been able to get its fiscal and monetary policies to reduce inflation and unemployment, having high interest rates, massive infrastructural deficit, insecurity and a system that promotes the culture of impunity has a bleak future.

ballabriggs:

And that is why what you have posted there is not to be taken serious, could go either way.

By your mad logic, no projections should ever be made in any field or endeavour. Afterall a meteor could strike the earth tomorrow and destroy all life on it. So why make projections? Sorry, your approach is not based on learning or education, but on beer parlour thinking. Fact is projections will be made, and for the most part they will be accurate if made with appropriate indices, criteria, and methodologies, and absent of catastrophic intervailing factors like natural disasters, war etc etc.

Different nations, different years, different levels of uncertainties and risks, different country factors, all these have not been taken into consideration, what we have is a wild overly optimistic estimate.

It is only ''wildly optimistic'' because you saw NIGERIA at the top of the list. And that is anathema to you because of your deep anti-Nigerian prejudices. Stop deceiving yourself that you're overly concerned about 'global risk factors'. If Britain or Germany were at the top of the list, you would accept the research without question.

take dat: Dumb kid wants a reasoned rebuttal on the trash he posted.

A jobless riff raff like you describing PriceWaterhouse Coopers research as ''trash'' - merely a sign of your illiteracy and bush profile. At least an educated person would try to summon some facts to contest their findings. But no, all you can say is ''trash'' because you have cotton wool where your brain ought to be.

Even if I accept that there is a slight improvement in power supply, if we keep having this failed political class

The same ''failed'' political class that doubled your power supply in the last two years? What have you achieved in your life in the last two years that is remotely comparable?

plus a complicated socio-political environment, are we sure there is going to be a Nigeria in the nearest future or you assume that improvement in power supply is all we need to stay as one?

Power output increase leads to increased economic activity and output, reduced costs for industry, higher employment rates, reduced poverty rates, and a higher living standard which leads to greater social stability etc etc. I'd say it certainly helps.

A country that has not been able to get its fiscal and monetary policies to reduce inflation and unemployment, having high interest rates, massive infrastructural deficit, insecurity and a system that promotes the culture of impunity has a bleak future.

YAWN. Show us the stats to prove that there is no positive movement in these areas. Your mere claiming so proves nothing. I've seen stats that show inflation rate stabilizing. Infrastructure is improving BY THE MINUTE across the country. Many federal roads are being rehabilitated. The railways are back on stream. Many states are investing massively in urban renewal and basic infrastructure. Power is improving in leaps and bounds. You need to travel round the country and OBSERVE developments instead of sitting in your negative little world assuming the worst.

My usual first impression when reading reports such as this is to take them with a pinch of salt. However when I take a second look at current trends such as the poor state of infrastructure, collapsed industry, weak institutions and overall low quality of life (in a highly populated country such as ours), what I see are opportunities. Opportunities to provide the world-class goods and services being enjoyed elsewhere but sorely missing here. Opportunities to make a lot of money, create a lot of jobs and improve quality of life by providing solutions to the numerous problems we face.

I see an emerging class of Nigerians ready to step in and take up this challenge. I see them in a wide variety of Nigerians...from that struggling young man with a revolutionary business idea who just needs N100,000 to realise his dream, to that poor kid who's selling pure water so as to save enough money to put herself through school, to the likes of Aliko Dangote and Tony Elumelu who are creating multinational companies that are spreading out across the continent. These and many other hustling, entrepreneurial Nigerians give me hope that the future is bright, despite the selfish, clueless, corrupt clowns we call our leaders.

Provided Nigeria can remain one country, this prediction may very well come true.

Rossikk:

A jobless riff raff like you describing PriceWaterhouse Coopers research as ''trash'' - merely a sign of your illiteracy and bush profile. At least an educated person would try to summon some facts to contest their findings. But no, all you can say is ''trash'' because you have cotton wool where your brain ought to be.



The same ''failed'' political class that doubled your power supply in the last two years? What have you achieved in your life in the last two years that is remotely comparable?



Power output increase leads to increased economic activity and output, reduced costs for industry, higher employment rates, reduced poverty rates, and a higher living standard which leads to greater social stability etc etc. I'd say it certainly helps.



YAWN. Show us the stats to prove that there is no positive movement in these areas. Your mere claiming so proves nothing. I've seen stats that show inflation rate stabilizing. Infrastructure is improving BY THE MINUTE across the country. Many federal roads are being rehabilitated. The railways are back on stream. Many states are investing massively in urban renewal and basic infrastructure. Power is improving in leaps and bounds. You need to travel round the country and OBSERVE developments instead of sitting in your negative little world assuming the worst.

A pipsqueak trying to find his lives fulfilment in an indeterminable forecast and delusions of progress. At what cost has the "failed" political class been able to double power supply? When other emerging market economies in the chart you posted are already on tens of thousand megawatts to driving their economy, we've spent $16billion for a little over 2000megawatts. Is it my fault that we've had failed Economic Development Plans including the unrealistic vision 20-2020 or that of the failed ruling class?

So CBN has been able to stabilise inflation rate? CBN with its counter productive policy of hiking MPR to cut inflation? CBN with an MPR rate of over 12% which makes business in Nigeria uncompetitive and without growth?

Are the infrastructures you claim are improving commensurate with the amount voted for them? You keep deceiving yourself with rehabilitation of federal roads that takes years of completion and billions of naira siphoned and a recently resuscitated locomotive trains and railtracks.

A country with a debt profile that might take 70years to pay back, not to talk of more plans for borrowing in the offing with little or nothing to show for it. A country where over 70% of its budget goes to recurrent expenditure. A country that finds it difficult to have a 70% performance in its annual budget

Or the problems of casualisation of workforce in the private sector, mass retrenchment, SME's inability to secure loans, miserable minimum wages, unemployable youths etc

Corruption, poor quality of leadership in the three tiers of government, terse socio-political environment and lack of political will to drive the needed reforms are the reasons why I am apprehensive over this forecast.

On a lighter note, I pray this "miracle" forecast comes true!

Rossikk:

By your mad logic, no projections should ever be made in any field or endeavour. Afterall a meteor could strike the earth tomorrow and destroy all life on it. So why make projections? Sorry, your approach is not based on learning or education, but on beer parlour thinking. Fact is projections will be made, and for the most part they will be accurate if made with appropriate indices, criteria, and methodologies, and absent of catastrophic intervailing factors like natural disasters, war etc etc.



It is only ''wildly optimistic'' because you saw NIGERIA at the top of the list. And that is anathema to you because of your deep anti-Nigerian prejudices. Stop deceiving yourself that you're overly concerned about 'global risk factors'. If Britain or Germany were at the top of the list, you would accept the research without question.

You are daft and I shouldn't bring myself to the level of an intellectual wannabe like you. I spent years of studying Development under top grade Development people while you spent yours copying and pasting from google. What you have stupidly done is to bring out a part of the report to support your bias and ignorant mind. I have gone through the full PWC report this morning and most of what I earlier wrote was actually considered in the report. I apologise to the Economists who I criticized wrongly as I was mislead by a buffoon like you.

The report dedicated a chapter to obstacles on sustainable growth. That is risk, that is uncertainty being discussed and it is critical to making a forecast else it becomes a wild overly optimistic estimate.

However, with your mediocre mind you decided to bring out only the part that favours your bias. The rate of technical progress is critical and this is what pushes economies away from the "steady state and convergence" as submitted by Solow. The report talks about this issue in one of the chapters. It also talks about protectionism as an impediment to sustain such growth.

You are too daft to think everyone will let you grow at that rate consistently without competition. Growth and Development is a competitive process, resources are not unlimited, nations compete for the available to meet their development needs. Protectionism thus becomes an effective tool at some point to help nations secure resources.

Go and read, go and study, not google, you are an intellectual wannabe, an intellectual neophyte,you are too little to even engage in any argument. There are underlying theories that guide the study of Economic growth. That is where you should start from, when you are done you can come back and I will help you.