It's funny to hear all of this talk as if ACN and CPC can merge, run the exact same candidates they've been running for years, and suddenly win the presidency.
ACN is not who you think they are in the South West. Though their grassroots and governorship game is strong, they have 0 presence in running a federal election for these reasons.
They don't have PDP's resources
They're votes come in large part for ethnic pride

now, If ACN gets a lot of it's votes from he sense that it's a yoruba party, which admit it or not that's the case, they can not compete federally if they don't run a yoruba person because the MINUTE they try running someone other than a yoruba, they fail miserably.
example

Where is the mighty ACN that can 'deliever the south west'?
This is a party that ran Ribadu, a young, reputable, and well liked northerner believed to be one of the most honest men in nigeria. Ribadu at that time because of the EFCC and it's groundbreaking arrest of governors, was more popular than Fashola is today (who's popularity is overrated due to Lagos' access to the media).
They don't speak of Fashola in the SE and SS, and i'm willing to say the north as well. They know there's a governor performing in Lagos, but he's definitely more popular among Lagosians than he is nationally. I would love to see him as president, but few can name what he has done outside of lagos other than 'People are behaving reasonably in Lagos now' which is what a lot of non lagosians say. Hardly a passionate battle cry.



PDP still rules the SW on a federal level, and with OBJ growing the reputation and popularity, it's going to be even worst in 2015. We have seen the limits of riding Fashola's success to the top for the ACN as they were beat in Ondo because people there didn't give a damn about what was happening in Lagos. They had their own local politics, own local heros and own local tastes and ACN wasn't a part of it.







The Middle belt will not vote for a core northerner, so the CPC needs to relax on the Buhari talk. As much as people believe GEJ is a failure, they also believe his biggest failure (fighting boko haram) was the creation of Buhari himself. The idea that he and his supporters are islamic radicals is very deep in the middle belt, SE, SW (as much as you want to deny it)and SS. They believe this as fact, it's not a matter of opinion. Boko Haram has also made the north an ugly brand in general. Everyone feels that anything a northerner does is a move to promote boko haram, sharia, or islam and more unapologetic killings. Southerners have developed a real hatred for the north. Boko Haram has made the returning of caskets from the north to the south a weekly tradition, and Boko Haram is seen as a creation of their leadership

how then will a northern leader convince the SS, SE, and SW otherwise?

Running a northerner in Nigeria's elections is akin to running an Arab after 9/11 in US elections. Sanusi saying that he wants to introduce coins was treated as a threat from islam in the minds of the battered and paranoid south. There is no northerner that commands any semblance of comfort among southerners, and people pretended otherwise are ignorant of the realities Boko Haram has created.


There is also the fact that GEJ's northern allies, are far more powerful in the north than Buhari and Tinubu are in their own domains. Which governorship election has the CPC won?
Pretending that CPC has national appeal and that ANC has national appeal is the clamouring of arrogant and insulated minds. You never hear Igbos claiming that AGPA has national cloat. We know our regional party is a regional party. Even a SW performer like Fashola is alien to people in Enugu the was a SE performer like Sullivan is alien to the people of Lagos.
had it not been the for picture thread on this forum many lagosians wouldn't even know the level of development that has happened in that state.


performance doesn't win Nigerian elections, and performance isn't only don't by ACN. Every state and region has it's local hero, and local performer and the performer of another state is irrelevant.

Check the link for chart of Nigeria's past election.
https://storyful.s3.amazonaws.com/production/ci_images/217361/nigeria-original.jpg

Form the last election you'll see that even with a combination of all the opposition parties, who all ran heavy weights (Ribadu, Buhari etc), they still don't have the command it takes to beat PDP and Boko Haram is going to make this unpopularity even worst.



The only way to break GEJ's strangle hold is to pull someone from his corner. He has a grip on the SE and SS that is completely unbreakable unless the opposition takes advantage of the fragmented cultural structure of the SE and SS by running someone from that area. GEJ isn't a heavy weight in either region, simply someone that got luck, but there are heavyweights there that can make that region ok with abandoning GEJ. Anyone pretending the SW and north can win an election alone is a fool. It should also be noted that Igbos command a 15-20% population rate of nearly every major state outside of their own region, and this is why on the top chart the only state you see with dark red %ages are in the SS and SE, whereas the rest, when won by the opposition, were weaker victories because igbos can bring down votes in any state against whomever they don't like in a way the yorubas and northerners can't in the SE and SS.


PDP's capacity to rig and access to resources is also that of folk legend. believing the Fashola and Buhari are 'national' heroes is a very arrogant Achilles heel that will kill the opposition ticket.

We do not need to start from who represent who in the presidential election for now.
They will choose the best candidate when the merger is completely integrated.
MUST as you said is arrogant.
There is no must in it.
South East has the right to support PDP, APGA or the merger party.
But South East has to play their politics so as to avoid settling for less.
No one will do the job for the south-eastern people, they must get to work for it.

Admit it or not Nigeria is a majority christian nation. On top of this Nigerians don't vote based on 'performance' or 'trust'. They don't trust any of their leaders, fashola included, and they are indifferent about performance because in all honestly it means little to the average nigerian.

When GEJ was running nobody checked for is abysmal lack of performance as governor, deputy governor, and VP. They didn't care. The one thing they believed was in God.
They believed that the events that led to GEJ becoming the president were so supernatural that it had to be the work of God. They truly believed that GEJ was God's choice, whether you want to admit it or not, and the passion they had for him was extreme as all religious passions must be. He also had a name that implied a supernatural guiding hand.
Call it stupid but this is the truth about Nigeria. They don't care if Fashola introduced buses and 95% of Nigerians outside of Lagos have NEVER heard of Eko Atlantic. This is the truth.
Many Lagosians have never heard of it.

In the SE it's even more intense. Igbos don't care about politics. They don't care who's performing and who isn't, They just want the government to leave them alone so that they can develop themselves as people and their immediate communities. They don't buy into loafy ideas such as one politician being less corrupt than the other because they can see with two eyes that a nigerian man with power is going to turn into a bastard by force. I don't believe deltans think differently either. Their voting is based on very concert rules

1. they're not voting for a northerner
2. they're not voting for a muslim
3. If someone ethnically similar to them comes out for elections they're voting for that person, otherwise, they're not voting.



everyone from educated igbos to illiterates feels the same way. They know who their enemies are and they know the nature of politics. The SW is called 'enlightened' because they are able to buy fairy tales, igbos know the plain and simple truth about Nigeria, it's a tribal and corrupt mess and your best option is to make sure the person in power won't at least kill you. If the government on all levels existed and/or didn't exist it would make no difference in the SE and SS, they're almost completely self sufficient and don't look to the federal government for anything because they know better. ACN is still pretending Nigeria is something that it's not by pulling stunts such as running Ribadu and realizing yorubas like yoruba people, not ACN.



Deltans are every less receptive of the fairy tales because they believe all the regions are stealing from them and killing their people. All of these years of northern rule has completely devastated them and the north standing against the PIB and demanding more allocations is only cementing the idea that they are in a den of parasites. Niger Deltan tribes HATE each other. There's really no such a thing as the 'south south' as a political unit, but the fact that they were able to band together to support an Ijaw man spoke volumes to how much they hate the rest of Nigeria even more.

Opposition cannot afford to start by being tribal about candidate, enforcing the rotation policy PDP is known for will only make them another PDP. Zonal Rotation is for PDP and even within the PDP the East is not recognized as a zone but the south and north.

Olaolufred: We do not need to start from who represent who in the presidential election for now.
They will choose the best candidate when the merger is completely integrated.
MUST as you said is arrogant.
There is no must in it.
South East has the right to support PDP, APGA or the merger party.
But South East has to play their politics so as to avoid settling for less.
No one will do the job for the south-eastern people, they must get to work for it.

The mistake of Nigeria is the north and in particular the SW is completely ignorant of what's happening in the SE. They have no clue what so ever and this will time and time again lead to their demise.

South easterns DONT CARE about government. They DONT care. A governor is not a hero in the SE, even if he's performing. They're just not politically minded people. The SE is at a stage where they simply want to develop themselves.
the majority of south eastern children go to schools built by other south easterners, drink water tapped by other south easterners, and are employed by each other. As much as I try to tell my brethren about performing governors they don't care and don't believe me.


To them, anyone in government is a thief. Anyone. So they don't vote on performance, or credibility which is what Fashola is trying to run on (if he's the candidate). They only want a candidate that will make sure they won't get killed. Simple, and the only people they trust to make sure they're not killed or sold to the devil are themselves or people like themselves (GEJ).


As much as GEJ is a failure they expected him to be a failure and don't care because Nigeria has fielded failure for 50+ years and they've learned to adapt and survive to make sure the failure at hand won't at least kill them.


Igbos don't even care about this 'igbo presidency in 2015'. All i know is if the opposition runs a muslim, GEJ is going to win and they will come out to vote with a passion. They believe Buhari killed the youth corpers and is behind Boko Haram. The opposition isn't changing anything about the dynamics of the previous election which when you combine the votes of ALL opposition parties, GEJ still won with a large margin.


the middle belt, SE, and SS don't like or trust the SW and north and will have nothing to do with a muslim candidate.


Did you ever wonder why Igbos didn't protest during 'occupy nigeria'? Because they didn't trust the people behind it (SW North) and more importantly they have developed a level of independence that makes sure the failures of the federal government effects their lives minimally.

If all else fails they'll just leave Nigeria, they don't care lol. They not going to receive 100 caskets from CPC supporters then vote for Buhari/Fashola because Fashola put buses in LAgos.



I'll like for you guys to know that 99% of Fashola's achievements have already been done in the SE.
banning okadas
housing estates/projects
demolishing slums
cleaning up the environment
etc

they still don't care and more importantly they're not impressed. Fashola is basically Ikedi Ohakim in Lagos, only Lagos has control of Nigerias media so they can scream Fashola's name louder than Imolites can scream Ohakim. Still, Igbos believe Ohakim is a corrupt fool and that his slapped a reverend father and he didn't win his election.

Ohakim built new estates, made Owerri the cleanest city in the country, employed 10,000 imolites automatically, banned okadas, demolished rotting buildings, demolished slums, kick stared New Owerri, build malls, build roads, installed traffic lights, etc. He still lost and his a christian igbo, why would they be wowed that Fashola introduced the same light rail system that Amaechi did when they don't even care that Amaechi did his own or the same BRT that Sullivan did when they don't even care that Sullivan did his own? By their standards Ohakim was a failure, as they expect all politicians to be.




understanding the SE is key to the next election. I want to see PDP detroned but if the opposition goes about this in arrogance as they have in the past, they're doomed.

@Ikenga. I doubt that you really know & understand what you're talking about. Your analysis of Yorubas' preference in choice of candidates (for national office) is very naive. & your knowledge of your SE & SS "brothers" is questionable. You need research more.

I just wonder why some people can't string 5 words together without mentioning Fashola..... or Tonto Dicke. I will vote for a candidate i feel is credible...not by him being Igbo. Period.

with your five states

What have I said that's incorrect?
Yoruba voters don't vote passionately at the federal level, winning a SW state is usually by closer margins than anywhere else in Nigeria. They have few strong biases, but one thing remains important, they're not as 'enlightened' as the hype they're creating.

They will favor their own just like any region, period. When Abiola was annulled they rioted. When Ribadu lost they carried on.
We think that OBJ not being popular there is a sign that they're de-triblized, that's not true, they simply hate that individual yoruba man because they feel he works with the enemy. the SW has it's own political realm/culture and OBJ doesn't play along with it. In this realm, Fashola is a messiah, elsewhere he's another governor.
still they have convinced themselves that everyone believes fashola is who they believe fashola is. People in Anambra and Maidugari aren't talking about Fashola, they have their own political heros as well but it's only the North and SW that believes their regional heros are national heroes.

the middle belt, SS, and SE don't like the north for very good reason, and won't co-sign anything they're behind. On top of that Fashola is performing, but so is the governor in Enugu, Imo, Rivers, and Cross Rivers, so they're not really wowed. The Southwest is very culturally insulated.

As much as we're told that the SW is accepting, the truth is they're accepting of people that step into their world, but are totally and completely ignorant and anything that exists outside of that world and are often adverse to it. Fashola was the first performing southwestern governor, so to them it was a huge landmark in progress. Imo state has had performers from the early 80s. Cross Rivers is on it's second exceptional governor, and the governor in Ibom puts everyone in Nigeria as a whole to shame.

the Fashola myth won't go as far as people believe, trust me, because he may be unique in the SW but he's just another politician everywhere else.
Even Ondo state didn't fall for it. GEJ is going to win if the opposition doesn't tap into his power base (SS, SE) If they run a middle belter the SS and SE will still consider him a northerner and a muslim automatically and that will fail as well.

ba7man: I just wonder why some people can't string 5 words together without mentioning Fashola..... or Tonto Dicke. I will vote for a candidate i feel is credible...not by him being Igbo. Period.

this is nigeria.
In a sensible society it wouldn't be like this, but this is nigeria.

Ikengawo: In the SE it's even more intense. Igbos don't care about politics. They don't care who's performing and who isn't, They just want the government to leave them alone so that they can develop themselves as people and their immediate communities.

I CAN SEE SOME BITS OF INCOHERENCE HERE.
COMPARE THE TOPIC WITH THE QUOTE.
THE QUOTE SAYS,"IGBOS DO NOT CARE ABOUT POLITICS".
YOUR TOPIC SAYS, "IGBOS MUST BE PRESIDENT"
I DO NOT UNDERSTAND WHAT IS RESPONSIBLE.

Ikengawo:
this is nigeria.
In a sensible society it wouldn't be like this, but this is nigeria.

We have to change that thought pattern. Its what has gotten us to where we are today. Voting out of sentiment and not critically assessing the candidate's acheivements. Even if the candidate i vote for doesn't win, I'll satisfy my conscience

Ikengawo:

1. they're not voting for a northerner
2. they're not voting for a muslim
3. If someone ethnically similar to them comes out for elections they're voting for that person, otherwise, they're not voting.

I THINK THE IGBOS HAS AN ABSOLUTE RIGHT TO VOTE WHO THEY WANT TO.

THE NORTH ALSO HAS THE RIGHT NOT TO VOTE
1. A SOUTH-EASTERNER
2. A CHRISTIAN
3. OR ANYONE ETHNICALLY SIMILAR TO THEM.

ISN'T THIS A VERY BALANCED EQUATION?

Igbos don't care about politics, the only way to get them to care is by presenting a candidate they feel won't kill them, which at this point they only trust other igbos Christians and former biafrans. So if you run GEJ against a muslim, GEJ will be the president of Nigeria

the muslim vote in nigeria is a lot more fragmented than the christian vote because muslims, believe it or not, don't hate and distrust christians the way christians hate and distrust muslims.

the fact the igbos don't care about politics has to be considered into the election. GEJ did this well by showing he was 'one of them' and thus they felt safe. In their opinion he can loot and mismanage all he wants, they just want an opportunity to develop themselves as individuals and their immediate community, they don't care who in government is performing or 'anti corruption'. They have in all reality given up on NIgeria and would simply want leadership that isn't going to kill them or impose Sharia on them.

Olaolufred:

I THINK THE IGBOS HAS AN ABSOLUTE RIGHT TO VOTE WHO THEY WANT TO.

THE NORTH ALSO HAS THE RIGHT NOT TO VOTE
1. A SOUTH-EASTERNER
2. A CHRISTIAN
3. OR ANYONE ETHNICALLY SIMILAR TO THEM.

ISN'T THIS A VERY BALANCED EQUATION?

it is, and i would like for Nigeria to be this way, but i'm tell you how it is, not how it should be.

it SHOULD be open to the best man, but you can have igbo churches bombed every week, middle belters raided, and northerners demanding more of the south south's money, sharia law, and tolerance of almajiris and boko haram and expect the victimized people to vote for someone from the north.

They will only empower GEJ by running a northerner. The Nigerian statistics are fake, the north doesn't have the numbers to win an election for anyone. All elections have boiled down to how the SE SS and middle belt trust.

Ikengawo:
everyone from educated igbos to illiterates feels the same way. They know who their enemies are and they know the nature of politics. The SW is called 'enlightened' because they are able to buy fairy tales, igbos know the plain and simple truth about Nigeria, it's a tribal and corrupt mess and your best option is to make sure the person in power won't at least kill you. If the government on all levels existed and/or didn't exist it would make no difference in the SE and SS, they're almost completely self sufficient and don't look to the federal government for anything because they know better. ACN is still pretending Nigeria is something that it's not by pulling stunts such as running Ribadu and realizing yorubas like yoruba people, not ACN.

WHATEVER YOU ASSERTED DOES NOT CHANGE THE FACT THAT THERE IS ALWAYS FREEDOM OF ASSOCIATION.
THAT FREEDOM WAS WHAT MADE OJUKWU BECAME A STAUNCH NPN MEMBER AFTER JETTING IN FROM IVORY COAST.
THAT SAME FREEDOM MADE EKWUEME THE VICE PRESIDENT TO SHAGARI.

WHY MADE YOU THINK THAT THIS FREEDOM IS PECULIAR TO ONLY THE SOUTH EASTERN PEOPLE?

Im not telling you my opinion, im telling you what i see.
I believe anyone is free to associate with anyone, but Boko haram has changed to political language in the country, and ACN is not as powerful as it's prostrating to be. period.
I dont like it but that's what it is. Most Christians believe Buhari is behind boko haram, and ACN has never won over 11% of the electorate. They need to break GEJ where he's strong and that's the SS and SE

Ikengawo:
the muslim vote in nigeria is a lot more fragmented than the christian vote because muslims, believe it or not, don't hate and distrust christians the way christians hate and distrust muslims.

FROM THIS ASSERTION OF YOURS,
WHAT EFFONTERY DOES A CHRISTIAN HAVE IN RULLING THE NORTHERN MUSLIM YOU DON'T TRUST?
OR WHAT LEGAL LOGIC DO THE CHRISTIAN SOUTH-EAST HAS IN SEEKING THE NORTHERN MUSLIM VOTES WHEN YOU HATE THEM WITH PASSION.

I AM APPEALING TO THE NORTHERN MUSLIMS NOT TO VOTE ANY SOUTH-EASTERN CHRISTIAN BECAUSE IT IS NOT LOGICAL TO VOTE IN YOUR ENEMY.

HOWEVER, I MUST CONFESS THAT IKENGAWO IS INCOHERENT.

@Ikenga, WRT ur post on Yorubas & fashola: I can assure you that you've proven your lack of knowledge of what you've set out to discuss. Have heard the name Jakande before?
Youngman, go get well educated: There are older, better informed, schooled, more discerning, Nigerians than you on this forum

Ikengawo: Im not telling you my opinion, im telling you what i see.
I believe anyone is free to associate with anyone, but Boko haram has changed to political language in the country, and ACN is not as powerful as it's prostrating to be. period.
I dont like it but that's what it is. Most Christians believe Buhari is behind boko haram, and ACN has never won over 11% of the electorate. They need to break GEJ where he's strong and that's the SS and SE

PORTRAYING. HOPE YOU UNDERSTAND THAT.

GO TO THE ELECTORAL RESULTS OF 2011 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION (STATE BY STATE).
ADD ALL THE VOTES IN SS AND SE.
THEN CALCULATE THE PERCENTAGE IT IS TO THE TOTAL VOTE HE HAS.
THEN WE CAN TALK MORE ON FACTS THAN THE USUAL "WHAT MY UNCLE TOLD ME".

no, prostrate is the word i chose to use and it's correct.
and it's hard to take what your saying seriously when you consider the fact that GEJ won lol.
You can't tell me about combining the votes of this and that region because when they were combine GEJ won
ACN didn't even secure 'it's region'. not even 15% of the country. CPC tried but you really don't think the youth corper massacre after their lose is going to effect the communities the corpers come from? be serious
i think in desperation for a messiah we forgot what nigeria is all about. distrust.

Ikengawo:

it is, and i would like for Nigeria to be this way, but i'm tell you how it is, not how it should be.

it SHOULD be open to the best man, but you can have igbo churches bombed every week, middle belters raided, and northerners demanding more of the south south's money, sharia law, and tolerance of almajiris and boko haram and expect the victimized people to vote for someone from the north.

They will only empower GEJ by running a northerner. The Nigerian statistics are fake, the north doesn't have the numbers to win an election for anyone. All elections have boiled down to how the SE SS and middle belt trust.

THEN WHAT HAS GIVEN YOU THE AUDACITY THAT MIDDLE BELT AND SOUTH SOUTH WILL VOTE FOR A SOUTH-EASTERNER.

PLEASE SOUTH EAST SHOULD VOTE JONATHAN. AT LEAST HE WILL PROMISE HANDING OVER TO YOU IN 2019.
I BELIEVE YOU HAVE WAITED LONG FOR SUCH PROMISES. KINDLY CONTINUE FOR THIS 4 MORE YEARS.

I AM A CHRISTIAN.
BUT WILL VOTE THE RIGHT LEADER- CHRISTIAN OR MUSLIM, SOUTHERN OR NORTHERN.
I HAD VOTED FOR GEJ, I HAVE THE RIGHT TO VOTE ANOTHER PERSON (IGBO, HAUSA OR YORUBA).
BUT I AM NOT TO DO THIS UNDER DURESS. IT IS MY ABSOLUTE CHOICE.
I BOLDED THE RIGHT BECAUSE IT IS IMPORTANT.
IF I HAD MADE MISTATE VOTING JONATHAN,I HAVE THE RIGHT TO CORRECT THE WRONG AFTER HE HAD EXHAUSTED THE MANDATE I GAVE HIM.
HOWEVER, IF HE IS ABLE TO FINISH WELL IN 2014, WHY WON'T I CONSIDER HIM AGAIN?

HOWEVER, IT IS GLEARING THAT YOU ARE NOT A KNOWLEDGEABLE PERSON.
SO FILLED WITH INCOHERENCES.
BASED ON THAT, YOU ARE NOT SPEAKING WHAT IS LOGICAL.
BUT ONLY THE FIGMENTS OF YOUR OWN IMAGINATIONS.

Ikengawo: no, prostrate is the word i chose to use and it's correct.
and it's hard to take what your saying seriously when you consider the fact that GEJ won lol.
You can't tell me about combining the votes of this and that region because when they were combine GEJ won
ACN didn't even secure 'it's region'. not even 15% of the country. CPC tried but you really don't think the youth corper massacre after their lose is going to effect the communities the corpers come from? be serious
i think in desperation for a messiah we forgot what nigeria is all about. distrust.

THEN, IT IS A FOOLISH CHOICE OF WORD.

CAN YOU PROOVE WHY PROSTRATE IS THE RIGHT WORD THERE?

Olaolufred:

THEN WHAT HAS GIVEN YOU THE AUDACITY THAT MIDDLE BELT AND SOUTH SOUTH WILL VOTE FOR A SOUTH-EASTERNER.

I think you don't really understand what the OP is trying to say and you are not even making serious effort to understand.
Read his argument again and calm down first to digest it before responding.
I tire for una "jumpy yarn".

The SS and MB will feel far safer voting for a SE candidate than a core North one: SS because of their oil resources which they feel is being exploited to their total exlusion; MB due to their feeling that the core North will kill the rest of them if they allow them back in power.
A candidate from the SW would have been Ok for them too, except that the SW still has to win back trust after siding with the North in the resource control "war" in recent past. Se o ye insi. (lol @ my poor Yoruba).

@OP How can you say the S/W has never had any performer before Fashola? What about Jakande, Marwa, Mobolaji Jonhson, Bola Ige et al?

Don't be naïve to think Fashola is not popular outside yoruba land, he is! The youths of Nigeria do not really care about all this tribal nonsense you've posted here, a lot of Igbos I know have joined the Buhari bandwagon since Uncle Jona has decided to bless us with his gross incompetence.

@OP It is refreshing to read a robust brainstorm of Nigerian political permutations here. Nairaland political section has been lacking indepth insights recently.
What you stated are facts which clever politicians in Nigeria already know. As much as some folks may hate GEJ ( I won't ever hate him, lol) he won't be a pushover going into the next elections. . . unless of course someone from his staunchest base is picked to run against him. That is why I became apprehensive when Soludo was snagged by EFCC. Methinks it was a GEJ gambit. I hope he retraces his steps though.

Having said these, I really hope that GEJ would not run in 2015. That is the way to keep things simple for SE , SS and MB/NC going into the future.

lol at the youths being beyond the tribal nonsense. The CPC supporters that were attacking youth corpers were they old?
Boko Haram, all of the tribal rioting a violence who's grandfather is involved? Its the youth themselves that spearhead tribal violence let alone bigotry. You may be speaking of exposed enlightened Nigerians that are cosmopolitan like maybe yourself, but I'm speaking on the majority of the country that's desperate, disillusioned and ignorant.

The Op raised salient points many of which are spot on. It is sometimes incredible when people read stuff about second Niger bridge and Eenugu airport politics and conclude that Igbos are dependent on the government. This is very far from the truth.

An average Igbo family is less dependent on the government compare to what obtain in other regions and ethnic groups. This self reliance pre-dates the civil war; it is at the core of the Igbo republican nature.

Perhaps this is the main factor responsible for the seemingly apathy towards politics and government at the centre. The Op has given invaluable insight of the perception of Igbos on politician, there is no point belaboring. Politicians basically serve their own interest and possibly represent law and order as mandated by the law.

But that said, the Igboman also believe in justice, equity, and fairness. This accounts for their support of GEJ (an ijaw minority) during the last election; when it was obvious that a cabal intended to push him out. In rallying unconditionally behind him, we demonstrated yet again our sense of fairness and equity; devoid of politics of expectation.

When 2015 comes, the penchant for pursuing fairness and equity will yet again propel our decision to support a candidate; not just the desire for politics for the sake of it.


GEJ is not any worse than his predecessor, and there is no guarantee that the next guy will come with a magic bullet, while we would prefer for him not to run again in 2015, the only way to persuade us from campaigning massively and voting for him is if someone that fits the profile is running.

Igbos have endured several clueless hausa fulani who ruled by the barrel; we have voted for Yoruba muslim, Yoruba christian, hausa muslim, and Ijaw christain. It's time to consider voting for one of our own. Igbos, and those with sense of justice will consider this stance fair!

It is important to note as the Op said, that Nigeria statistics (population spread especially) are phantom, hence to discount a sizeable mobile population in any political equation is often the beginning of failure. In 2015, this reality will again come to the fore.

@ OP.
Na your father born you!
It was fun reading your thread and believe me, I was just discussing with somebody today and i told him exactly the same thing: the only way to stop Jonathan is for the opposition to field and Igbo man. In that case, this Igbo man will be "accepted" in the West, North and North Central. This Igbo man will grap South East and share South South.

Yet, it won't happen! If it happens, then maybe Nigeria may last a bit longer.
As far as I know, the opposition will never field an Igbo man.

1. The Igbo are not stake holders in the current opposition
2. The North is ready to spill the blood of "The monkeys and the baboons" if they don't get back their "birth right": the Presidency
4. The general suspicion of the Igbo man in Nigeria is not yet history.

The fact is that the only way the North will get power back is to deal with Jonathan at the PDP level. After that, they can rig themselves in.

But me thinks that Jonathan will contest and still win free and fair, then the Jihardist will pain the town "red".

It's only the Southwest that's stupid enough to keep making deals with these devils to no avail.
PDP knows it's strength is the SE and SS. Forget everything else.
Nigeria is about looting and using your loot to acquire more power. elections are funded by godfathers and niger delta governors
what the north is saying is true, what one ND governor gets is more than that region in allocations, they're the primary target for PDP funding when it comes to fund raising. Wtf can the governor of Katsina contribute? The SE has penetrated enough of the country to be able to break down margins everywhere. You're ignoring the only two politically relevant regions in the country and expecting to win as if you haven't been losing for ignoring them to begin with.


They will vote and fund GEJ jare. Idk what yoruba people's own is against igbos but that's the ignorance that's going to keep nigeria enslaved by PDP for the next 50 years. Buhari and Tinubu are local government champions. Lets call a spade a spade.

Just another Igbo chest beating thread.

You guys are describing Igbos as barbaric and unsophisticated morons.

OP said Igbos want government to leave them alone so they can develop their immediate environment. Yea. A 50b naira road will come from private firms because the firm needs road or firm will come to the area because the government built the road? You guys are just morons seriously.

This is all nothing but another "Igbo vs Yoruba" thread. The Igbo nut case that opened this thread started by indirectly calling Yorubas Tribalists. Citing the 2011 rigged election! Remember Jonathan had to use the name Azikiwe to get eastern votes. As if that isn't tribalistic enough.

Now, identify the tribalistically sentimental voting bloc here:

Igbos: Jonathan used the name Azikiwe just to gain favour from easterners, Atiku/IBB promised to handover to Igbos after one term? Jonathan Also promised to hand over to the Igbos after one term.

Igbos never came out to support Jonathan when he needed their support during the Yaradua sickness issue. In fact, Igbo elites were citing rotational presidency as a reason citing that it should be Igbo's turn. The Dora Akunyilis put on a fit at the support Yorubas gave Jonathan in Lagos. Yorubas came out enmass all over SW demanding that justice for Jonathan. When Jonathan was campaigning for presidency, he needed Azikiwe name to boost but didn't need a name like Oluwagoodluk or anything to appease Yorubas. Yet, Yorubas voted him?(According to Ikengawo's election result map). What promise exactly did Jonathan make to Yorubas other than that politicians promise of development bla bla. But for Igbos, it has to be handing over to them lol.. And Yorubas are tribal voters according to Ikengawo.

There was a Yoruba candidate in the last election but he couldn't even win his state because he isn't popular. Jonathan was a popular candidate. Buhari could barely campaign in two states in the South. But with the merger, that will become possible.

No merger party will not field any Igbo candidate. Name one Igbo man apart from Pat Utomi worthy of consideration as candidate. Now once you've done that, name one Igbo man worthy of candidate with a real chance of sweeping, W, E, S, and at least 3 states in middlebelt? None, zero, zero! None of them. Put your emotions aside. Igbos have not been building or grooming any candidate for presidency. Oshiomole has real and better chances than any Igbo man does. Stop deluding yourself.

S will vote Jonathan no matter what. His thugs in the creeks will ensure that. Any Igbo candidate will have to break the East. going by Ikengawo's accusing Yorubas with historical voting habit, I have the right to say that in fact, Igbo candidacy won't win because Igbos won't vote for him. Ojuwku? hehehehehe una nefa stat.

Let's be honest, Buhari has a real chance of winning now more than ever with the merger. Buhari/Fashola will basically bring the morale of PDP down! With Fashola on the ticket, the morale of PDP supporters in the West will break down. Buhari will run again in 2015.

What party does the guy that built APGA support now? yea PDP. And Igbos want a real chance at presidency? Lmao!! Already, as small in population as Edo state people are compared to Igbos, because they have a general candidate who has made inroads in other regions in Nigeria. Should the biggest Igbo politician run against Oshiomole, the Igbo politician will lose big time!.

Igbos lack political sophistication simple!

Ikengawo: It's only the Southwest that's stupid enough to keep making deals with these devils to no avail.
PDP knows it's strength is the SE and SS. Forget everything else.
Nigeria is about looting and using your loot to acquire more power. elections are funded by godfathers and niger delta governors
what the north is saying is true, what one ND governor gets is more than that region in allocations, they're the primary target for PDP funding when it comes to fund raising. Wtf can the governor of Katsina contribute? The SE has penetrated enough of the country to be able to break down margins everywhere. You're ignoring the only two politically relevant regions in the country and expecting to win as if you haven't been losing for ignoring them to begin with.


They will vote and fund GEJ jare. Idk what yoruba people's own is against igbos but that's the ignorance that's going to keep nigeria enslaved by PDP for the next 50 years. Buhari and Tinubu are local government champions. Lets call a spade a spade.

Name one Igbo candidate with a real chance of winning better than Buhari. You lack political sophistication like most Igbo political analyst.