Sincere 9gerian: @Mr Excel.., God bless you my brother for taking the pains and time to educate the 'medieval ignoramuses' and professional arm chair critics.

The fools who say unless GEJ builds HSR in 3 years, they'll not appreciate the ongoing railway reforms should please tells us how many HSR or standard guage railways was built by the in the past leaders in the last 5 decades?

most of the rail rehabilitation contracts were actually awarded by the obasajo and yar adua governments. But i expected the man with a "transformation agenda" to know that there is nothing transformational above rehabilitating colonial era rail tracks. And who says jonathan should complete a HSR in 3 years? If he completes a phase during his term, won't his succesors continue? Would'nt that be a great legacy to leave behind? At times live up to you name.

Symphony007: as of 2011 nigeria's oil revenue came up to 50.3 billion dollars. That is independent of gains gotten from gas, agriculture, taxes and out revenue incomes. Nigeria has lost 400 billion dollars to corruption and some fools on here are telling me nigeria cannot afford if mr excel's extimate is correct 15 billion dollars for a high speed rail. What idiocy.

Mr excel says nigerians cannot afford to pay 5,000 naira to travel from port harcourt to lagos with 3 hours or more. Is a flight ticket in nigeria 5,000? Yet the nigerian government is spending about 18 billion to buy planes because the ones currently cannot carry the passanger load, it cost 5,000 naira to travel by an ABC bus but it does'nt have the safety a train can offer nor the comfort,speed accident prone. How do people reason?

Yes, the money is there in Nigeria for a very modern railway system, there is no need to borrow money abroad from the Chineses. Let us look at the following fact: Crude oil thieves stole an average of $2 billion daily the last time anyone cared to check, and this puts the loss to the nation at nearly a trillion dollars annually. Now this $1 trillion annually could easily put the current state of Nigeria's railway infrastructure at par with those of the First World countries.

Symphony007: @mrexcel.....thanks for your cool write up but i won't go as long as you did. I'll surmarize my points in a few words. Nigeria has the population that is willing to spend money on mass movement. Air travel is very expensive even for the buisness man who uses it and the poor who don't so imagine a comfortable rail network that is fast and everyone can afford based on their class. It will be a revenue boom, it will make nigeria smaller, i can live in one city and work in another, buisness will flow, that is the parameter contries like china and india use when building stuff like this. They have the population that needs moving and that is why gulf nations with all their money don't build it because, there is no one to use it. The revenue from it will far surpass whatever was spent. All your figures are nice but they don't cut to the chase. We can afford it and the benefits both in revenue and optics will surpass the cost. I refer you to my above posts for futhur explanations.

What you fail to understand is finance and sentiments DO NOT MIX, just like oil and water do not mix. Your hypothetical that it's a revenue boom is merely a fallacy which is nonexistent. You talk about air travel, does it ever occur to you why air travel is a enormously expensive is because of the

A. The cost of doing business (which accounts for more than 60%)

B. The greed factor (accounts for about 25%)

C. Other factors (other 15%).

My estimates were "CONSERVATIVE" meaning that these are unlikely scenarios and close to nonexistent. In our modern capitalist world, cost of capital is VERY EXPENSIVE, who will borrow you funds for 1% interest rate? What capital investor will invest in a project like these with 10% down from Nigeria? These are the "very unlikely" scenarios I was talking about.

Now if you account for costs listed above, my $300/ticket is more likely to be about $500/$600, is this the price people are willing to pay? You talk about China and India, these countries have "TRILLION $$$ GDP's and have a "STABLE" economic environment, Nigeria DOESN'T.

Until you're able to put forth calculations telling me how revenue will stream in, at least to justify the costs, all of these are mere speculations, it WILL NOT WORK. I calculated for you using simple calculations explaining costs, and how it's expensive without intervention like subsidies, you tell me how it works.

When you go to an Analysts office and ask for cost/revenue scenario, what I have written is 10% of what you will get. Realism and facts will hit you on the face, then you will know that Nigeria CANNOT afford it. China can afford a $14billion rail system over a 1,000miles because they gat the money, U.S., poor countries like US and Nigeria cannot afford it... SIMPLE.

Have you stopped to think why Lagos didn't opt for the HSR lines, I mean Lagos claims 17million people, accounting for about 20% of Nigerian GDP, Lagos by default is the perfect city/state model for HSR, yet, they went for the regular intercity metro rail. What does that tell you? Why is Lagos different? According to LASG, it will concession off the operations and lease ROW(Right-Of-Way) tracks to the companies who pay fees, besides, the KEY FACTOR is that Lagos Rail has a potential of eventually carrying up to 1million passengers daily. This is the estimated forecast, at least, the bigger number of riders will justify for the associated costs.

Mr.Excel:


What you fail to understand is finance and sentiments DO NOT MIX, just like oil and water do not mix. Your hypothetical that it's a revenue boom is merely a fallacy which is nonexistent. You talk about air travel, does it ever occur to you why air travel is a enormously expensive is because of the

A. The cost of doing business (which accounts for more than 60%)

B. The greed factor (accounts for about 25%)

C. Other factors (other 15%).

My estimates were "CONSERVATIVE" meaning that these are unlikely scenarios and close to nonexistent. In our modern capitalist world, cost of capital is VERY EXPENSIVE, who will borrow you funds for 1% interest rate? What capital investor will invest in a project like these with 10% down from Nigeria? These are the "very unlikely" scenarios I was talking about.

Now if you account for costs listed above, my $300/ticket is more likely to be about $500/$600, is this the price people are willing to pay? You talk about China and India, these countries have "TRILLION $$$ GDP's and have a "STABLE" economic environment, Nigeria DOESN'T.

Until you're able to put forth calculations telling me how revenue will stream in, at least to justify the costs, all of these are mere speculations, it WILL NOT WORK. I calculated for you using simple calculations explaining costs, and how it's expensive without intervention like subsidies, you tell me how it works.

When you go to an Analysts office and ask for cost/revenue scenario, what I have written is 10% of what you will get. Realism and facts will hit you on the face, then you will know that Nigeria CANNOT afford it. China can afford a $14billion rail system over a 1,000miles because they gat the money, U.S., poor countries like US and Nigeria cannot afford it... SIMPLE.

Have you stopped to think why Lagos didn't opt for the HSR lines, I mean Lagos claims 17million people, accounting for about 20% of Nigerian GDP, Lagos by default is the perfect city/state model for HSR, yet, they went for the regular intercity metro rail. What does that tell you? Why is Lagos different? According to LASG, it will concession off the operations and lease ROW(Right-Of-Way) tracks to the companies who pay fees, besides, the KEY FACTOR is that Lagos Rail has a potential of eventually carrying up to 1million passengers daily. This is the estimated forecast, at least, the bigger number of riders will justify for the associated costs.

Forget that guy. He's been thoroughly beaten with facts. All he's been doing on this thread is pouring out emotions and sentiments.

The same guy criticising GEJ for returning the railways and having SOMETHING to show for investments in the railways in the last 3 years, is not ashamed to tell us that all OBJ and Yar Adua could achieve in 10years (1999 to 2009) was award paper contracts for railway rehabilitation with NOTHING on ground to show. Just imagine the hypocrisy. I'm done with the hypocrite

Symphony007: the 5,000 naira is my estimate which might vary depending on the class.(first class, buisness and coach) futher profit will be made from cargo transportation. Guess mr excel forgot to add that to his "elaborate estimate" there is no way a train ride will cost over 40,000, it is stupid and counter productive. It will be affordable to as to draw more customer and enhance it's primary goal which is making the country smaller and mass transport of goods and services.

Lol, this is the reason why I hate having arguments with people like you but I have no problem educating you. If you read my posts very clearly, I simply analyzed based on cost/mile trip, now however the rail transport company wanna split it (First, Business or Economy) is up to them, however, economy is your "supposed" niche market, not necessarily your money maker.


This is the more reason why you have to listen to Jmaine, he told you

[size=16pt]GO BACK AND REREAD MY POST [/size]

I will break it down for you even further, in transportation economics calculation, nothing complex, let's take a simple look using your car as an example.

Case 1:

---

David wants to travel from Lagos to Kano which measures 1,000miles in distance, he's driving a Honda that has 5seats and uses approximately 25mpg (mile-per-gallon), assuming that the cost of gas is $3.50/gallon, how much will David's trip cost?

In this scenario, the DC (Direct Cost) is FUEL.. Nothing more, therefore, David will incur about $140/1,000 miles. Now you have seen that I did not make ANY mistake

Airlines use this same model I used which is often referred to as DC-CASM (Direct Cost-Available Seat Mile). Using the same model, airlines DC-CASM is about $0.12 and RASM is about $0.18, now you see why on a 1,000mile trip, you can buy a ticket @ a good price for about $180 - $250, same rule.

Now you can see why I said the govt has to heavily subsidize it because if we're to account all the cost associated with operating a train let alone an HSR is expensive. In fact, it's cost up to $30/mile to operate an HSR. From electrical consumption, to labor, to ROW fees, to navigation to a rack of shit. In fact, let us test this theory.

An average HSR uses about 25kw -40kw/km of electric consumption or 40kw - 65kw/miles...

With a fair average of say 55kw/miles x 1,000 miles = 55,000kw of electric consumption.

Multiply 55,000 kw of consumption x $0.08, that's about $4,400 for just electric consumption, and this by far is a very fair "conservative" estimate for a 6-car train. When the trains are much more, run faster, etc... more power is consumed and more energy is needed. In reality, electrical power needed to crank up these trains run into the mid ten thousands. This is for electricity. Account for cost of depreciation, capital, labor, etc... Then tell me what you have... So yes, I was correct in my calculation when I said tickets can go for about $300 if govt doesn't subsidize it... SUBSIDY being the keyword.

Mr excel and his cronies focus on immediate profit but fail to understand that governments do not undergo projects for immediate profit but residual. Calculate what the mass movement of people around nigeria will do for our economy, the decongestion of lagos, increased accesibility to other cities. Right now the british government is thinking of decongesting london and moving more buisness and people up north and a high speed rail is the best medium is there pick and work will soon start, china's high speed rails has made a country so wide it is divided into provinces to be accesible to all it's citizens. Think friends....think!! Common sense ain't common.

I thought of replying this, but it sure ain't worth it.

If you need real-time, researched calculation, just let me know. Abt three years ago, I worked on something similar like this, and I can help give you FACTS, not sentiments.

Bottomline:

A. Nigerians need to be thankful for what they have before expecting more.

B. Nigeria will get there someday, but for now, we're laying the foundation for the good works

C. Finally, Nigeria cannot afford this luxurious day dreams of some of you, live in reality... GEJ has set the ball in motion, if the Railway Act is amended or even repealed and stared all over again, perhaps, it will give room for private investors willing to take the risk, as long as you and I are will to shell out the money for something good.

Mr.Excel:


What you fail to understand is finance and sentiments DO NOT MIX, just like oil and water do not mix. Your hypothetical that it's a revenue boom is merely a fallacy which is nonexistent. You talk about air travel, does it ever occur to you why air travel is a enormously expensive is because of the

A. The cost of doing business (which accounts for more than 60%)

B. The greed factor (accounts for about 25%)

C. Other factors (other 15%).

My estimates were "CONSERVATIVE" meaning that these are unlikely scenarios and close to nonexistent. In our modern capitalist world, cost of capital is VERY EXPENSIVE, who will borrow you funds for 1% interest rate? What capital investor will invest in a project like these with 10% down from Nigeria? These are the "very unlikely" scenarios I was talking about.

Now if you account for costs listed above, my $300/ticket is more likely to be about $500/$600, is this the price people are willing to pay? You talk about China and India, these countries have "TRILLION $$$ GDP's and have a "STABLE" economic environment, Nigeria DOESN'T.

Until you're able to put forth calculations telling me how revenue will stream in, at least to justify the costs, all of these are mere speculations, it WILL NOT WORK. I calculated for you using simple calculations explaining costs, and how it's expensive without intervention like subsidies, you tell me how it works.

When you go to an Analysts office and ask for cost/revenue scenario, what I have written is 10% of what you will get. Realism and facts will hit you on the face, then you will know that Nigeria CANNOT afford it. China can afford a $14billion rail system over a 1,000miles because they gat the money, U.S., poor countries like US and Nigeria cannot afford it... SIMPLE.

Have you stopped to think why Lagos didn't opt for the HSR lines, I mean Lagos claims 17million people, accounting for about 20% of Nigerian GDP, Lagos by default is the perfect city/state model for HSR, yet, they went for the regular intercity metro rail. What does that tell you? Why is Lagos different? According to LASG, it will concession off the operations and lease ROW(Right-Of-Way) tracks to the companies who pay fees, besides, the KEY FACTOR is that Lagos Rail has a potential of eventually carrying up to 1million passengers daily. This is the estimated forecast, at least, the bigger number of riders will justify for the associated costs.

you has now narrowed down your premise to revenue. How much revenue will it yeild after it's construction but you fail to understand that wnen a government undergoes capital project, profit is secondary, the bigger picture, how it will impact the country is primary. You yourself said most countries who build HSR record lots of losses but why do they still continue and even expand it? Why are other countries adopting it? Because the real profit is in the nation's economy....quick mass transit of people will spread this country's wealth and economic activities to other cities, lagos will be decongested massively because i can be living in benin city and working on lagos island. Today the british government has flagged off plans to build a high speed rail linking london to yorkshire in the north of england. This is geared at moving wealth, commerce and population away from london and into the rest of the country.

Califonia will soon start it's HSR, they are spending 2.5 billion dollars for the intial phase which will run through meader and bakersfield in central valley which by nigerian standards a approximately lagos to port harcourt. This will create over 4,000 jobs and revenue by 2023 is projected at 22.9 billion dollars and mind you califonia is not half the population of nigeria but it is half the landmass of nigeria. Remind me how much nigeria wants to spend on planes, how much have they spent so far on locomotives? Facts don't lie.

Symphony007: you has now narrowed down your premise to revenue. How much revenue will it yeild after it's construction but you fail to understand that wnen a government undergoes capital project, profit is secondary, the bigger picture, how it will impact the country is primary. You yourself said most countries who build HSR record lots of losses but why do they still continue and even expand it? Why are other countries adopting it? Because the real profit is in the nation's economy....quick mass transit of people will spread this country's wealth and economic activities to other cities, lagos will be decongested massively because i can be living in benin city and working on lagos island. Today the british government has flagged off plans to build a high speed rail linking london to yorkshire in the north of england. This is geared at moving wealth, commerce and population away from london and into the rest of the country.

Califonia will soon start it's HSR, they are spending 2.5 billion dollars for the intial phase which will run through meader and bakersfield in central valley which by nigerian standards a approximately lagos to port harcourt. This will create over 4,000 jobs and revenue by 2023 is projected at 22.9 billion dollars and mind you califonia is not half the population of nigeria but it is half the landmass of nigeria. Remind me how much nigeria wants to spend on planes, how much have they spent so far on locomotives? Facts don't lie.

One more reason why I'm about to quit this argument with you, you're all over the place...

1). I did not "NARROW" down my argument to revenue, my initial post is there for ALL to see, I was responding to you and I clearly marked out what I was referring to.

2). I think you should take @Jmaine's advice: READ CAREFULLY. My post DID NOT, NEVER mentioned "PROFIT", I only talked about the cost and revenues generated, does it equal? The cost outweighs the benefits, that was my argument..

3). So you'd rather your country pile up a $15 debt just to satisfy your rush? Besides, I never said most countries build HSR, what I said was "WEALTHY COUNTRIES" commonly known to Asia and Middle East, however, most train operators/systems tend to run in losses.

4). Quick mass transit will spread the nations wealth? Really? Is that what you were taught in economics?

I'm glad you mentioned CA, what you failed to understand is

A. CA has 5x the size of GDP and Revenue than Nigeria does,

B. The per capita of the state is one of the highest than the average Nigerian

C. CA board constantly rejected the HSR idea because of the increased cost, and while at it, please read up to know when they will be done paying up for it.

D. CA may be able to afford it, I mean CA is the no 1 state in GDP, so why not? but Nigeria CANNOT.


Oh I forgot to add, the cost for the rail line is running up to $68billion where as 12.5 has just been funded if I'm correct, the remaining is still in limbo. I will start posting news articles supporting reasons why many have opposed the idea rather than support it. I forgot to add, I haven't said the economic benefits aren't there, but when compared to the pile of billion $$$ debts, question remains, IS IT WORTH IT?

@excel..Why do you ignore the basic points on my post?
1.your estimate on how much it will cost is groosly overestimated, i just told you of califonia's 2.5 billion for the meader to bakersfield which by nigerian standard is lagos to port harcourt, i put my estimate at 5 to 6 billion.

2. Nigeria is planning to spend nearly 18 billion on airplanes and already billions have gone into the existing locomotives so how is the funds not there to fund it?

3. Yes, mass transist of people, goods and services spread wealth and develop economies. Since you don't know economics, let me luminate you. This singular reason is why the u.k is building a HSR from london to yorkshire, that is even the primary reason for the califonia HSR.

3.the cost outweigh the benefit? A smaller more connected country, mass movement of people, goods and services, less cars on the road, less road accidents, longer life span for our roads, increased revenue, over 4,000 construction jobs and about 2,000 permanent jobs and more? Really? The cost out weight the benefit?

4. Your estimate is groosly overestimated. It cost 2.9 billion to build the califonia meader bakerfiels line, i estimate nigeria's to be about 6 to 7 billion due to our disperity in power production to run the lines and other overhead cost. And if this money is carefully implemented in the nigerian budget in a span of years with cut backs to 30 million salaries and billions on planes,etc..it will not add a cent to our debt.

5. The per capital of the state of califonia is more than the average nigeria but the population of nigeria is tripple that of califonia with a faster rising middle class and consumer base.

6.my dear, there is no "califonia board" currently rejecting the idea. Prop 1 been voted and approved of by the people of califonia and gov. Jerry brown has already signed it into law. The project has already been fully payed for with califonia bringing a large chunk and the feds adding there's. Talks about debt and more cost are peddled by republicans who want no infastructural spending in califonia.

7.correction, califonia is not paying for it alone, the federal government is making and input because the network is so elaborate they are looking at 60 billion dollars to finish it. Nigeria is not going for a 60 billion dollars project. We are connecting the two commercial hubs of nigeria lagos and port harcourt which is a fraction of the califonia project that will cost them 2.9 billion. After that is complete, the rewards will be a determination if we go futhur. Simple.

Rossikk:

Not sure why you're comparing Nigeria with Japan. Apart from the gulf in technological development, you do realise Japan's annual GDP is $5.87 TRILLION per annum as opposed to Nigeria's $280 billion, and therefore the former CAN easily afford a cutting-edge high speed rail network while Nigeria will necessarily struggle and sacrifice a lot more to get one?

So why isn't ur budget $5.7Trillion and why isn't JAPAN'S $275billion? Stop extolling mediocrity.

Symphony007: @excel..Why do you ignore the basic points on my post?
1.your estimate on how much it will cost is groosly overestimated, i just told you of califonia's 2.5 billion for the meader to bakersfield which by nigerian standard is lagos to port harcourt, i put my estimate at 5 to 6 billion.

Grossly overestimated? How about you digest these links for the actual figures

I'm no fan of wiki, but it will help - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_High-Speed_Rail

From the economist -

From the SF Bay area newspaper - http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2013/06/06/board-expected-to-approve-contract-for-1st-segment-of-california-high-speed-rail-line/

From Citizens Against Waste (CAGW) - http://cagw.org/media/wastewatcher/california-high-speed-rail-way-track

Finally from the horses mouth - cost reduction - http://www.hsr.ca.gov/docs/about/business_plans/BPlan_2012Fact_Sheet.pdf

You say Lagos to Port Harcourt (380 miles) to be $5 to $6billion? You really need to look at their fact sheets and business plan once more because people like you are easily carried away. No need for putting your estimate, the cost of CA HSR was estimated at $68billion, this is the total cost (down from $98billion). That it's built in phases is something else different.

2. Nigeria is planning to spend nearly 18 billion on airplanes and already billions have gone into the existing locomotives so how is the funds not there to fund it?

The way you guys throw your fictitious figures is not only annoying but makes people like me angry. Do you know what $18billion is? Or are you talking about Naira? Besides airplanes/airlines operate well without government subsidy, airplanes are not FIXED capital intensive like rails, and thus are likely to get get financed than rail will. You keep saying about funds, I asked you to look at my calculation, if you have issues with it, kindly say so. Nigeria spent all that money on rehabilitation because it was budgeted for. Nigeria did not spend billions on locos, but rehab of the track/signaling systems to begin with, a whole lot was spent to bring them to a state of order. Go to FMF website, it will better educate you on the rehab projects.

3. Yes, mass transist of people, goods and services spread wealth and develop economies. Since you don't know economics, let me luminate you. This singular reason is why the u.k is building a HSR from london to yorkshire, that is even the primary reason for the califonia HSR.

Lol, each time you keep "TRYING" to prove a point, you keep falling back making yourself look ignant(Cameroonian way of saying ignorant). Perhaps you missed the memo, here it is again

4). Quick mass transit will spread the nations wealth? Really? Is that what you were taught in economics?

Making a bogus and unvalidated emphasis that "quick mass transit" will spread the nations wealth is not only misleading but mischievous. I'm no economic expert, and I try not to claim one, but listen carefully now, mass transit is part of public infrastructure aimed at improving, growing/developing the economy. A growing economy doesn't necessarily translate into wealth of citizens, Nigeria is a case study.

Spreading of wealth on the other hand are engineered fiscal policies that encourage increased income such as jobs, entrepreneurship, manufacturing, agriculture, low taxes, etc. These two terms though related have different meanings. You need quick mass transit to do business, yes it helps, but mass transit in it's entirety does not distribute wealth, you have to create the environment first using policies. That is why states like Rivers are building thier monorail, how will that spread the states wealth when there isn't any wealth/income factor? So again, I ask

4). Quick mass transit will spread the nations wealth? Really? Is that what you were taught in economics?

4. Your estimate is groosly overestimated. It cost 2.9 billion to build the califonia meader bakerfiels line, i estimate nigeria's to be about 6 to 7 billion due to our disperity in power production to run the lines and other overhead cost. And if this money is carefully implemented in the nigerian budget in a span of years with cut backs to 30 million salaries and billions on planes,etc..it will not add a cent to our debt.

Like I said, I won't argue CA rail with you any further...Here is a good link for you

http://www.hsr.ca.gov/About/Business_Plans/2012_Business_Plan.html

5. The per capital of the state of califonia is more than the average nigeria but the population of nigeria is tripple that of califonia with a faster rising middle class and consumer base.

Lol, middle class? How about you compute what your "middle class" earners are, then equate it to the average middle class in CA, and then tell me what your findings are... You're funny as hell. Isn't per capita income equated as average, so please when you're done, bring forth your results. CA state is FLAT OUT BROKE, but hell the residents aren't... so please, drop that line of argument.

Symphony007: @excel..Why do you ignore the basic points on my post?


6.my dear, there is no "califonia board" currently rejecting the idea. Prop 1 been voted and approved of by the people of califonia and gov. Jerry brown has already signed it into law. The project has already been fully payed for with califonia bringing a large chunk and the feds adding there's. Talks about debt and more cost are peddled by republicans who want no infastructural spending in califonia.

7.correction, califonia is not paying for it alone, the federal government is making and input because the network is so elaborate they are looking at 60 billion dollars to finish it. Nigeria is not going for a 60 billion dollars project. We are connecting the two commercial hubs of nigeria lagos and port harcourt which is a fraction of the califonia project that will cost them 2.9 billion. After that is complete, the rewards will be a determination if we go futhur. Simple.

Lol

Fully paid for? Now I know that you're onto something, my sincere advise is PLEASE (IN CAPS), PLEASE read their business plan again. To say that the project has been FULLY PAID FOR, whereas about 10% of the money has been realized so far is nothing short of lies... My goodness.

http://www.hsr.ca.gov/docs/about/business_plans/BPlan_2012ExecSum.pdf

On pg 15 of this link, directly from the horses mouth, you will see the table... This should shed more light on your peddled misconceptions.

As for your other talks, I tried making sense out of it, but I couldn't. For the first phase of financing of what you reference as "Madera to Bakersfield" is 136 Miles NOT your proposed 380 miles...lol and it's costing $6billion just the fist part of the first phase... Heck, here is the link http://www.hsr.ca.gov/About/Funding_Finance/index.html

Those trains should be adapted to transport cargoes, it is dehumanising to use those trains for human traffic inter state

emiye: Those trains should be adapted to transport cargoes, it is dehumanising to use those trains for human traffic inter state

I agree, those trains are good for transporting cattle but not peoples