The 2015 election is just around the corner and stakeholders involved are making frantic moves to protect their interest, while the new alliance of CPC and APC which culminated in the emergence of APC (marriage of inconvenience you might say) seems to be the only formidable opposition at least for now, patiently like a vulture they wait for the PDP to press the self-destruct button so it can capitalize on its blunders. As an observer, from the look of events troubling the PDP especially the August 31st birth of the so called ‘NEW PDP’, it is an obvious indication that GEJ has lost the Captaincy of the ship and mutiny is an inevitable consequence. In 2015 there would be no fence seating, it is either you are for or against us; to be or not be is the question starring GEJ at the moment. But just like the HBO movie “Game of Thrones” making waves at the moment, I feel tempted to borrow a quote from one of the lead actress Cersi who said “when you play the game of thrones you win or you die. There is no middle ground”. This is the reason some of his supporters from different quarters are asking him to declare his intentions, even the opposition too are not left out of that question, it’s all about power, absolute in all ramification, and this is politics at its peak in Nigeria.

In view of the aforementioned, let us hypothesize different scenarios and options GEJ has if he finally declares his intentions to run for the number one office in Nigeria. What are his chances owing to the fact that he is from a minority whose number is quite inconsequential to influence the outcome of the 2015 election?
Judging from the recent happenings in the Country it is quite evident that he would play dirty (very dirty) if ever he wants to achieve his goal for re-election. I say this because if ever the election is conducted free and fair where all votes would count, the reality is that he would manage to win his state but not the country. The reason for this is not far-fetched; he has not had it good with Nigerians until the Subsidy period which brought untold hardship on the people. The people felt he betrayed their trust and they want him out as soon as possible. That event alone made the scales to fall of the eye of Nigerians; the “no shoe” soap phenomenon ended abruptly leaving Nigerians with regrets and curses which hitherto has not abated. The people felt since June 12 1993 elections, (which was annulled) GEJ is the only President who was voted across ethnic and religious divide. To see this person who had a humble beginning now turn around and sing tunes of bourgeoisie class was totally heartbreaking.

That said, let’s be realistic with ourselves and stop “JEGALISING” about the bush, the 2015 elections WILL NOT BE FREE AND FAIR! We’ve already started seeing early signs of how 16 is greater than 19 and 5 greater than 27 all these are just miniaturized representation of events to happen in 2015 if GEJ should play the devil’s advocate and throw spanners at work, there’s the outside possibility he’ll get re-elected.

The Nigerian populace are easily influenced by tribal and religious and sentiment, this is a tool which is readily available at his the disposal. We all know the North has been crying foul since the demise of Yar’dua and they feel the only way to placate them is giving power back to them. In the eyes of the East, West, and South-South that position is untenable thus a divide and rule system which the colonialist used excellently well becomes a useful tool for GEJ.



The East historically when it comes to politics in Nigeria are easily manipulated thus find it hard to speak with one voice. Suffice it to say, their last hold of the highest office (Gen. Aguiyi Ironsi) didn’t go too well .It is this unequal sharing of the National cake that motivates them to readily dance to the tune of whoever is ready to offer them power, even if given by the devil himself they are ready to support his course provided their interest is protected and aims achieved. The East knows they do not stand a chance for power in 2015 but they know very well they have a say on who occupies the presidential seat.
The West In particular which is key to winning election poses a very big challenge for GEJ not only because of its vast population but their high level of literacy and political awareness .Still enjoying the fruits of the foundation Awolowo laid down, they still boast of highly intellectually gifted/charismatic leaders which serves as a rallying and uniting force. Playing divide and rule politics here will not work really yield much result if we are to go by previous antecedent in which the electorate refused to be swayed. In my opinion,” DIVIDING THE VOTES OF THE WEST WOULD NEED A MIRACLE”!
Need we talk about GEJ’s chances in the North?yes,the events today is a clear indication of uncertainty of the outcome of the 2015 elections; the north which once boasted of itself as a peaceful region, had a united front like the west ,is now a shadow of itself due to its centuries of neglect of its educational sector. While other regions are embracing the positive aspect of Globalization, tackling its mortality rates, providing vaccines to eradicate the spread of polio and other diseases, providing scholarship/bursary to increase its educationally capacity, the North in contrast is now left behind to grapple with these and as if that was not enough, the insecurity no thanks to the Boko Haram terrorist is now a focal point which cannot be overlooked as we move closer to the electioneering year.
It is pertinent to note at this juncture that historically, despite the persistence of its educational backwardness, the north strangely enough like the west, have always voted en bloc politically, if this can be attributed to the religious or ethnic background is another debate able issue entirely but suffice it to note that this hydra headed monster facing the north provides a loophole (or opportunity) to exploit if ever he dreams of ruling the country for a second term, yes he won’t win the North but he could use the events happening in the north to appeal to the consciousness of the other regions. It seems a sure bet that Propaganda, whether positive or pernicious would never sway the hearts and mind of the people so the best chance GEJ has is to:

1. Blackmail the North by sponsoring and perpetuating violence and bombings on Christian dominated areas which comprises of different ethnic groups and at the same time lending his voice to religious and ethnic institutions like C.A.N, Ohanaeze Ndigbo to condemn the killings, in other to give it a more religious and ethnic colorations so that sentiment can rise.

2. Exaggerate every little issue as a useful tool for pernicious propaganda. For instance, the deportation row between Lagos and Anambra states should come in handy when the opportunity presents itself.
3. Nigerians are dominantly religious people and are gullible too, the best way to win their heart no matter what you’ve done to them is to appear in religious gathering and show some sense of humility and you’ll be shocked at how accommodating they would be towards you. Politicians knows this very well so they use this as a tool to boost their images when election time gets closer, when they appear at religious gathering like Congress gathering of Redeemed, Shiloh, where millions of worshippers throng, they see it as a very good avenue to “Convert” the electorate to their side. GEJ is very much aware of this and can do an excellent job when it comes to this.

4. As for political opponents, use the state machinery (or rather attack dogs) to chase, bark or even bite them so they run for dear lives e.g. EFCC, The Army, and Police Force. This if carried out with gusto would not only shut his opponent but it will also scare those who are out spoken against his government.

Despite these and other options available which could be exploited, if I were to be in GEJ’s shoes (which thankfully I am not) or his advisor, I would listen to the voice of wisdom not to seek another term. Yes it is quite arguable that it is his right to contest which I totally agree to, but objectively and realistically looking at his options, his chances grow slimmer by the day while the opposition’s rank swells. If GEJ could observe closely, never in History had this country had it so rough all front, Security is totally at its lowest ebb, gone were the days when only the people cry for trigger happy police killings, now even civilians kill security operative, only the Boko Haram crisis have claimed 7,000 lives since 2011, The Ombatshe group in one swoop killed over 50 security operatives, everyone now live in perpetual fear because in the words of Hobbes “no society; and which is worst of all, continual fear, and danger of violent death; and the life of man,solitary,poor,nasty,brutish,and short”. Oil theft is now systemic, never had this country been so divided along ethnic and religious lines. There was a time in Nigeria, when Christians and Muslims didn’t care who led them provided they had the characteristics of a leader, all they cared for was if you could deliver the necessary needs like shelter, water, power, light security and food. A case in point was the June 12 1993 election in which every Nigerian voted en masse for the eventual winner MKO ABIOLA irrespective of their ethnic or religious affiliations.





To be realistic, the best option GEJ would have had to win in 2015 was to bring Governance down to the common man in the street who only concerns himself with the price of Garri, these were people who loved him and made him popular overnight with the “one shoe “Cinderella tale of his humble beginning; These people do not know the meaning of GDP and how it affects them, all they care about is how, where, and when their next meal will come. Unfortunately he took the side of the elite, the so-called cabals who do “chop-I-chop clean pot “to rip the country of her wealth. Just barely a year into his administration when everyone was going about their business, he announced the removal of fuel subsidy-the news was greeted with widespread condemnation and protest and since then the romance between the common man and GEJ was broken, he crossed to the other side. Now 2015 is fast approaching, the elites do not want him now he wants to fall back and cajole same people he had abandoned; it is at this point I ask a fundamental question the Liverpool Chairman asked during the Suarez Arsenal transfer row, “What are they smoking over at ASO ROCK?”(John .W.Henry actually said Emirates), Nigerians could be fooled sometimes but never all the time, his image in the eyes of the people have totally plummeted. Only if he was schooled and followed the teachings of the Chinese Scholar Tsun Tzu where he opined that in order to win a war you must have the full support of the people, if we are to follow this advice, GEJ has already lost the battle even before it began. My advice if taken could salvage whatever is left of his image and History might still smile on him since he still have two more years to go in his tenure. He should publicly and courageously come out and tell the whole world he won’t seek re-election, after doing this, he should focus on ways to ameliorate the hardship on the people by taking bold steps to fight those so called corrupt cabal who are bent on pulling this country down, prosecute corrupt officials, let justice be swift and reduce the cost of governance in all tiers, improve electricity and stop this so called “estimated bills “where people pay for power they never use. Do this and history will pat you on the back but if he insists on running again, after seeing the writing on the wall, I WISH HIM WELL. article from www.greenvasion..com