WATCHTOWER LIES

Over its history, the Watchtower has regularly made statements
and quoted figures to 'prove' an extremely significant increase in
earthquakes since 1914, a
sample of which follows.

"There have been more natural
earthquakes in the earth in the
last four years than in any
previous period in earth's
history" World Distress Why? The
Remedy (1923) p.26

"Even then, if the exaggerated
figures of past centuries are
accepted at full value, the above
figures show the average annual
death rate was greatly
accelerated from and after 1914-
from 4,000 killed per year it
leaped to 40,000! Death and
horror in concentrated form is
mankind's portion since 1914."
Watchtower 1951 Apr 1 p. 202

"Significantly, since 1914 there
have been more major
earthquakes than in any previous
period of similar length in
recorded history." Watchtower
1961 Oct 15 p.628

"On the average, about ten times
as many have died each year
from earthquakes since 1914 as
in previous centuries." Life - How
Did It Get Here? By Evolution or
by Creation? p.225" "There will be great
earthquakes, and in one place
after another pestilences
[disease epidemics] and food
shortages." (Luke 21:11) That
well fits events since 1914, as
there has been a huge increase
in the distresses from such
calamities." Does God Really Care
About Us? p.20

"From the time Jesus gave his
prophecy until 1914, history
records five earthquakes that
each took 100,000 lives or more
" Awake 1982 Jul 8 p.16

"But Jesus foretold "great
earthquakes." (Luke 21:11) Has
the frequency of these really
changed? ... Since 1914 the yearly
average of reported severe
earthquakes has soared to over
11 times what it was during the
thousand years before then. Is
more than that required to fulfill
the prophecy?" Awake! 1984 Oct
22 p.7

"This means that, in comparison
with the previous 2,000 years,
the average per year has been 20
times as great since 1914."
Reasoning from the Scriptures
(1985) p.236 (see below for a
discussion of the full quotation)

"Such an increase in earthquakes
does not surprise Jehovah's
Witnesses." Awake! 1995 Aug 22
p.27

"During the last 2,500 years, only
nine earthquakes have each
killed over 100,000 people. Four
of these quakes have occurred
since 1914." Watchtower 1998
Sep 15 p.7

THE TRUTH

With little effort it can be
determined that the number of 'great earthquakes' has occurred
consistently for thousands of years. A comprehensive source of
data is http://www.intute.ac.uk/
sciences/hazards/Earthquakes-database.html As of April 2007
there were catalogued 5,800
destructive earthquakes since
2150.B.C. This is an average of
over 1 great quake per year for
the last 4,000 years, which is the
same yearly average that the
Watchtower has claimed makes the 20th century the most prolific
for earthquakes in history.

"Since 1948 the pattern has entered a new phase, with approximately one great quake a year." Watchtower 1961 Oct 15
p.628

Seismology is a new science with the first seismograph invented in
1880. For this reason accurate records of earthquakes measuring 7.5 on the Richter
scale have only become possible since then. Accurate and
complete seismological records are now readily obtainable.
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eqlists/eqstats.html (July 2005) provided
a list of earthquakes for this period resulting in over 1000 deaths. From 1902 to 2001 there
have been 110 earthquakes that
resulted in 1000 or more deaths,or 1.1 destructive earthquakes per year. The 12 years prior to 1914, (1902 to 1913) had a
higher average of 1.25 per year than the average for the 88 years from 1914 to 2001, where the
average drops to 1.08. This shows that during the time frame that we have accurate records the occurrence of earthquakes before and after 1914 has changed little.
In a private email I received from Professor Glenn Biasi at the
University of Nevada Reno Seismological Laboratory he
wrote;

"There is no significant increase in earthquakes since 1914. The
record is better, so people are more aware of earthquakes, more seismometers, better
communications, etc. The
number of earthquakes varies from year to year, but is pretty constant once the detect ability
increase is factored in. The number of earthquakes per year
or the amount of energy released on average are expressions of the speed at which internal,
gravity driven flows in the mantle act. Very hard to change, and no
signs of disruption on any
historical timeframe"

It is accepted amongst
seismologists that the number of earthquakes have remained
relatively unchanged over many millenniums.

"We continue to be asked by many people throughout the
world if earthquakes are on the increase. Although it may seem that we are having more earthquakes, earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater have remained fairly constant.
A partial explanation may lie in the fact that in the last twenty years, we have definitely had an
increase in the number of
earthquakes we have been able to locate each year. This is because of the tremendous
increase in the number of
seismograph stations in the world and the many
improvements in global
communications. In 1931, there were about 350 stations operating in the world; today,
there are more than 8,000 stations and the data now comes
in rapidly from these stations by electronic mail, internet and
satellite. This increase in the number of stations and the more timely receipt of data has allowed us and other seismological centers to locate earthquakes
more rapidly and to locate many small earthquakes which were
undetected in earlier years. The NEIC now locates about 20,000
earthquakes each year or
approximately 50 per day. Also, because of the improvements in
communications and the
increased interest in the
environment and natural
disasters, the public now learns about more earthquakes.
According to long-term records (since about 1900), we expect
about 17 major earthquakes (7.0- 7.9) and one great earthquake
(8.0 or above) in any given year."
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learning/faq.php?
categoryID=6&faqID=110 (27 Oct2009)
The reason that the number of earthquakes changes little over
time is because earthquakes take
years to develop, and are the result of the shifting earth's mantle. This is how islands and
mountain ranges have formed over millennium.
The frequency of earthquakes is quite bewildering.
It is estimated that there are 500,000 detectable earthquakes in the world each year. 100,000
of those can be felt, and 100 of them cause damage. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learning/facts.php (April 16 2008)
The U.S. Geological Survey
estimates that large earthquakes
occur about once a year. Smaller earthquakes, such as magnitude 2 earthquakes, occur several hundred times a day and several
million temblors happen every day. Google Maps identifies on a map of the globe earthquakes
from the last 7 days at Google Real-time Earthquakes. For
example, in just 7 days to
October 15th 2011 there were the following earthquakes
between 4 and 6.7.

To create a mountain system might take several million
medium size earthquakes over tens of millions of years.
www.encyclopedia.com stated 1 January 2005

"On average about 1,000
earthquakes with intensities of
5.0 or greater are recorded each
year. Great earthquakes (intensity 8.0 or higher) occur once a year,
major earthquakes (intensity 7.0-7.9) occur 18 times a year,
strong earthquakes (intensity 6.0-6.9) 10 times a month, and
moderate earthquakes (intensity 5.0-5.9) more than twice a day."

As an example of the power of earthquakes, the 1994 earthquake in Northridge,California released energy
equivalent to almost 2 billion kilograms of explosive, about
100 times the amount of energy that was released by the atomic bomb that destroyed Hiroshima
during World War II. At
magnitude 6.7 the Northridge earthquake is considered moderate in size, yet caused over
$20 billion in damage.
Earthquakes this size occur about 20 times each year worldwide.
Dedicated seismologists and researchers, including R. Mallet, J.Milne, P. Verney, S. Duda and A.W.
Lee have amassed a considerable volume of data on historical
earthquakes. Earthquakes have been recorded as early as 2150 B.C. Four magnitude 6.8 or larger
earthquakes and many
magnitude 6 - 6.5 shocks
occurred in the San Francisco Bay region alone during the 75 years
between 1836 and 1911.
Despite no increase in
earthquake size or frequency,one could imagine that the
increasing global population would have at least resulted in
the most earthquake related deaths occurring in the 20th century. Surprisingly this too has
not been the case, with prior centuries having more earthquake related deaths. The Encyclopaedia Britannica 2002
on DVD lists major historical earthquakes over the last 1,500
years. Of the 5 earthquakes with
the most deaths, only 1 was since 1914 and it was by no means the most destructive. The
most destructive earthquake was
in 1201 in Syria with 1.1 million killed. In 1556, China had an earthquake with 800,000 killed.
In comparison, the largest in the 1900's killed a relatively minor
240,000.