Friday , May 24 , 2013. 35 governors
gathered to vote for the Chairman of
the Nigeria Governors Forum ( NGF ) .
With the initial postponement and
intrigues that surrounded it, it was
going to be a night of long knives.

With the Presidency interested in the
outcome and with Governor Amaechi
determined to give it another shot in
spite of his open confrontation with
the President , it was going to take
more than ordinary determination
to navigate the treacherous waters.
It would take grit , uncommon
courage and the ability to outfox
the henchmen of the Presidency. At
the entrance of the venue of the
election , all the Governors were
mandated to submit all their mobile
phones . But one man particularly
suspected there was going to be foul
play so he sneaked in a pen camera .
He recorded the vote counting
surreptitiously until when Governor
Godswill Akpabio noticed they were
being secretly recorded . When
controversy sprang up on the actual
winner of the contest , he released
the video to the public . The man
who exposed the lie for what it was
was Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola , the
Governor of Osun State .

Controversy is his middle name . For
9 months , he operated solely without
commissioners . He renamed Osun
State and gave it a new
nomenclature called ‘State of Osun. ’
He fashioned a new educational
policy and called it reclassification
of schools.

In one fell swoop, schools were
merged and bedlam ensued . In one
school, we were treated to a picture
of students dressed in choir robes ,
hijab and masquerade attires as
uniform . Some suspected Muslim
fundamentalists broke into a school
and flogged a teacher. For the first
time in the South West, religious
embers were stoked . Then came the
uniform controversy .
All the public schools were
mandated to adopt the same
uniform all over the State . Fakunle
Comprehensive School , Osogbo was
demolished despite pleas that a
school with such a grand tradition
should be allowed to stand. He
declared Hijra as a public holiday
for Muslims , the only state to do so
in Nigeria . Then he declared another
holiday for traditionalists called
‘ Isese Day’ .
Suspected of being a religious
fundamentalist , he donated N 35 m
for the burial of late Prophet
Timothy Obadare . And then the
‘ Opon Imo’ controversy . Then came
the issue of the ‘ Sukuk ’ Islamic bond.
His tenure could be appropriately
termed ‘ one week , one trouble’ .

In spite of the unending
controversies and despite the
appointment of an Osun State
indigene Jelili Adesiyan as the
Minister of Police Affairs , it is my
carefully considered opinion that
Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola will win the
9 August election .

Here’ s why I think
he will trump Otunba Iyiola
Omisore , the PDP ’s candidate


1. Omisore’ s Poor Candidature

Iyiola Omisore is not Peter Ayodele
Fayose . He lacks the charisma of
Fayose . He is not a Jimi Agbaje. He
lacks the character of Agbaje. He
doesn ’ t have the mass appeal even
though he has the notoriety . While
you cannot deny that he has a
semblance of structure having been
the Deputy Governor of the State
and also a Senator of the Federal
Republic of Nigeria , his major
Achilles heel is that he has been
successfully tainted by the
accusation of involvement in Bola
Ige ’ s murder.

This is one accusation that has
refused to go in spite of his
protestations . In addition , his
campaign is a poor caricature of
Ayodele Fayose ’ s. Whoever is his
campaign director needs to get fired
as he has runs one of the most
bizarre and lacklustre campaigns
ever . His efforts to align with the
masses fell flat - his handling of two
roasted corn cobs in both hands , his
ride to a campaign venue on an
‘ okada’ and his absurd combination
of two different ‘ Ankara ’ materials
as cloth are images that have
defined his campaign . He has not
successfully exploited Rauf

Aregbesola ’s obvious weaknesses .
When it was time to debate Ogbeni ,
he didn ’ t show up . That was an
opportunity to redeem himself but
he failed to utilize it. Ayo Fayose
challenged Kayode Fayemi for a
walk on the streets of Ado - Ekiti but
Iyiola Omisore claimed he didn ’t
come for the debate because he
didn ’ t want Ogbeni to beat him up .
Is it any wonder that the President
has not attended any rally in Osun
State even up till now?

The President must have read the
handwriting on the wall and there
was no point dissipating energy in
the wrong direction . PDP lost it
when the ticket was given to
Omisore because he is irredeemable.
If he’ s banking on federal might , he
got it wrong this time because you
can only rig successfully where you
are popular. In fact , Ogbeni will be
gifted this election not because of
his superlative performance but
primarily because of Omisore ’ s poor
candidature .

2 . Disunity In The PDP House


No situation exacerbated the
looming disunity in Osun State PDP
than the statement credited to the
Minister for Police Affairs that he
will beat Senator Isiaka Adeleke
when he leaves office . Adeleke
claimed he was assaulted during a
party meeting and he subsequently
defected to APC.

Fatai Akinbade , a former Chairman
of the State PDP and a man who
served three different times as
Commissioner under three different
military regimes also defected to the
Labour Party . Former Governor
Olagunsoye Oyinlola has not come
out openly in support of Iyiola
Omisore despite belonging to the
same party .

In fact , he was even courted by the
top echelon of the APC. As a former
National Secretary of the party and
also a former Governor of the State ,
his body language speaks volumes .
Oyinlola is a Prince of Okuku, the
capital of Odo -Otin Local
Government, one of the 30 Local
Government areas in Osun State . It is
instructive to note that Odo - Otin is
one of the three local government
council areas with the highest
number of 15 wards in the state
after Osogbo and Iwo .

3 . Ogbeni Aregbesola ’ s Above -
Average Performance


In spite of his controversies, only a
blind man will ignore Ogbeni ’ s
performance . He has built mega
schools, many of them super
infrastructures with commendable
appurtenances. He has constructed
over 20 intercity roads and more
than 15 intra - city roads . This is
apart from some very ambitious
dualization projects embarked
upon .


The free festive inter- city train ride
from Lagos to Osogbo has become a
constant feature of his
administration. I was informed that
he has built 74 primary health
Centres all over Osun State . He has
increased IGR in Osun from N 300m to
N 1. 6 b and has not been known to
borrow from any financial
institution , save for the Islamic bond
he took. His O ’ Meals project is
laudable . Love him or hate him ,
there’ s no denying the fact that he
has improved the face of governance
in the state.

4 . Ogbeni ’ s Massive Campaign
Network


Ogbeni has embarked on a
blitzkrieg of a campaign . Maybe due
to the lessons learnt from Ekiti ’ s
recent election , he has left no stone
untouched . This is the first time I ’ m
seeing an incumbent campaign as if
he ’ s the under -dog . He has run a
very good campaign so far - both
terrestrially and on social media .
Going by his student unionism
antecedents, one is not too surprised
that he has at least two former
student leaders in his cabinet and
they are both active in running his
campaign . Most of the controversial
issues raised have been either
effectively addressed or well
mitigated by this team . When the
issue of religious fundamentalism
came up , they released the video of
Bishop David Oyedepo ’ s visit .
Ogbeni has been photographed
genuflecting to Pastor Enoch Adejare
Adeboye . He attended a major night
vigil organized by a white garment
church . He has been dancing
‘ skelewu’ at all rallies to show he
can connect with the populace. He
has run his campaign without Bola
Tinubu being visible so the issue of
the overbearing influence of the APC
leader has been largely well
managed. Ogbeni runs the best
propaganda machinery in the South
West and the effect can be seen in
how he has successfully diverted
attention from his controversies
while making Omisore seem to be
the controversial one .

5 . The Seeming Inconsequential
Position of Osun In National Politics


In the calculation of the PDP, Osun
State may not really be worth the
trouble. Like Ekiti , one would have
expected a massive support from the
centre but apart from the
involvement of the Minister for
Police Affairs Jelili Adesiyan and
party big wig Buruji Kashamu, no
other major PDP political actor has
been to Osun State .


Not even the Vice President Namadi
Sambo who usually represents the
President on most occasions . The
PDP Chairman has been missing in
action conspicuously and in my
opinion two major issues come into
consideration here: firstly, the
antecedents of Osun politics where
the state was the only one won by
the erstwhile ACN candidate Nuhu
Ribadu during the 2011 Presidential
elections without having any impact
on the outcome of the full national
election results . The resources are
limited and they would rather
concentrate such where they can get
the greatest political capital -
Adamawa , Nassarawa , Edo , Oyo ,
Ogun and Lagos States.


The second is the opportunity to
take the wind out of the sail of APC’ s
complaint that Osun’ s elections will
be rigged by the PDP just like they
suspected it was done in Ekiti.
Furthermore , it is PDP’ s calculation
that APC will be misled to believe
they have stopped PDP ’s incursion in
the South West . Consequently , if APC
wins Osun, the party will be seen to
be a bad loser anytime it complains
after another loss. So PDP can afford
to lose Osun State without batting
an eyelid .

6 . Ogbeni ’ s Grassroots Support


Rauf Aregbesola is well schooled in
the art of politics . He has been able
to successfully marry both
politicking and governance which
was one of the major issues
Governor Kayode Fayemi had . You
can accuse him of everything but
you can never accuse him of not
connecting with the populace. With
the pupils , he has appeared in their
school uniform on many occasions .
He has held his health walk in
several towns across the states. He
has several mushroom groups such
as De Raufs located all over the
state and these ones project his
ideology . He has given himself the
identity of ‘Oranmiyan ’, a progenitor
that the Yorubas respect.

His support base is not limited to a
particular demographics – he has a
broad base across all sectors in the
state. Ogbeni is street smart and can
fight dirty if need be . A veteran of
many political battles , he is not a
gentleman like Kayode Fayemi and
can be very rambunctious . That was
why he asked people to come to the
polling units with charms on
Election Day . If there is anyone who
is a true protege of Bola Ahmed
Tinubu , he is one . That is one of the
reasons the Ekiti story cannot repeat
itself in Osun State .

AND THE SUMMARY IS

TRASH


TRASH


AND MORE




TRASH



KEEP CONSOLING YOURSELF

7 . The Geo- Political Demographics in
Osun State


The geopolitical demographics
currently favour Ogbeni Aregbesola .
Ogbeni is from Osun East Senatorial
District, the largest district in the
State .Though Iyiola Omisore also
hails from the same district , Ogbeni
is from Ilesa , one of the three
biggest towns with the highest
number of voters in the state while
Omisore is from Ile- Ife . Osun East
with a voting strength close to
500, 000 comprises of 10 Local
Government Areas - 4 in Ife and 6 in
Ijeshaland .

There are about 1. 2m registered
voters in the state. Ogbeni is
expected to have a clean sweep of
all the 6 Local Governments in
Ijeshaland while Omisore will sweep
his own 4 Local Government areas.
However , Ogbeni ’ s deputy Mrs
Laoye - Tomori is from the state
capital , Osogbo and so he ’ s expected
to pick up the votes in the town .
Iwo , which is the largest town in the
State is predominantly Muslim and
this will also play to Ogbeni ’ s
favour .

Omisore ’s deputy , ex-Speaker
Adejare Bello hails from Ede , the
same town Senator Isiaka Adeleke
hails from . ‘Serubawon ’ as the
Senator and former Governor is
popularly called has more
grassroots support in Ede than Bello .
His family even has a University
called Adeleke University in Ede .
I present to you below my take on
the electoral configuration that will
arise during the August 9 election
across the 30 Local Government

Areas in Osun State .
Aiyedaade – Omisore
Aiyedire – Omisore
Atakunmosa East – Ogbeni
Atakunmosa West – Ogbeni
Boluwaduro – Ogbeni
Boripe – Ogbeni
Ede North – Ogbeni
Ede South – Ogbeni
Egbedore – Ogbeni
Ejigbo – Ogbeni
Ife Central – Omisore
Ife East – Omisore
Ife North – Omisore
Ife South – Omisore
Ifedayo – Ogbeni
Ifelodun – Ogbeni
Ila – Ogbeni
Ilesa East – Ogbeni
Ilesa West – Ogbeni
Irepodun – Ogbeni
Irewole – Ogbeni
Isokan – Ogbeni
Iwo – Ogbeni
Obokun – Ogbeni
Odo Otin – Ogbeni
Ola Oluwa – Ogbeni
Olorunda – Ogbeni
Oriade – Ogbeni
Orolu – Ogbeni
Osogbo – Ogbeni

http://www.pmnewsnigeria.com/2014/07/29/news-analysis-seven-reasons-why-governor-aregbesola-will-win-osun-election/

VICTORCIZA: AND THE SUMMARY IS

TRASH


TRASH


AND MORE




TRASH



KEEP CONSOLING YOURSELF

Why hurry... I will console you on August 9

An insightful writeup.

Iwo , which is the largest town in the
State is predominantly Muslim and
this will also play to Ogbeni ’ s
favour .

Iwo is the largest in landmass, and not in population. Should be the 4th or 5th in population.

Ilesha was know to be the most populated, but presently the capital seems to have taken over.
1 & 2. Osogbo &/or Ilesha.
3. Ile-Ife(undisputed)
4 & 5. Ede &/or Iwo.

May the best man win.

but
#Team Ona bab ona...

the way some people just come here to post anything they lay their hands on amazes.

August 9 is there to witness. That scammer(aregbe) should have nothing to do in Abeere again.

PaulJohn1: An insightful writeup.


Iwo is the largest in landmass, and not in population. Should be the 4th or 5th in population.

Ilesha was know to be the most populated, but presently the capital seems to have taken over.
1 & 2. Osogbo &/or Ilesha.
3. Ile-Ife(undisputed)
4 & 5. Ede &/or Iwo.

May the best man win.

but
#Team Ona bab ona...

ile ife has the higher population than ilesha.

the two local goverments in ilesha are JU̶̲̥̅̊$t slightly bigger than ife central alone.

Tolexander: the way some people just come here to post anything they lay their hands on amazes.

August 9 is there to witness. That scammer(aregbe) should have nothing to do in Abeere again.

Seriously?? Coming from you bruh??

Tolexander: the way some people just come here to post anything they lay their hands on amazes.

August 9 is there to witness. That scammer(aregbe) should have nothing to do in Abeere again.

Haba! Kilode?

Tolexander: the way some people just come here to post anything they lay their hands on amazes.

August 9 is there to witness. That scammer(aregbe) should have nothing to do in Abeere again.

Are you that frustrated??

Tolexander: the way some people just come here to post anything they lay their hands on amazes.

August 9 is there to witness. That scammer(aregbe) should have nothing to do in Abeere again.

Weep not child.. Pele... Stop crying

Brimmie: Seriously?? Coming from you bruh??

ya coming from me.

U won't just understand cos the media has been colonised and all we can see is propaganda. There are many things i wish i can post here which U don't understand that i was also naïve of but M̶̲̥̅γ̲̣̣̥ device I̶̲̥̅̊s̶̲̥̅̊ spoilt.

I'm not canvassing fọ̥r omisore and i'm not a partisan poster but for posterity sake.

dguyindcorner:

Are you that frustrated??

earthgreeners:
Weep not child.. Pele... Stop crying

sorry!

I don't have U̶̲̥̅̊я̲̣̣̥ time!

Sincere9gerian:
Haba! Kilode?

ti kinni fi sele?

Tolexander: ile ife has the higher population than ilesha.

the two local goverments in ilesha are JU̶̲̥̅̊$t slightly bigger than ife central alone.

Do a little research and you'll realise Ife is not close to being the second most populated. Remove the Population of the great OAU(of about 30-40k students) and you'll be left with reality.
Why do you think Ilesha was first considered to be the capital of the state during its creation in 1991?

It's simply because of the population advantage Ilesha had then over other towns in Osun. Although Ile-Ife was also considered, but it was solely because of the generally believed myth of the ancient town being the cradle of the Yorubas and also the home of one of the very few Grade one kings we have in the SW.

Both towns were then neglected because they were too extreme in location for a state capital. You'll remember that being located at the centre or close to was a prerequisite under Babagida regime(when the state was created) for selecting capitals. The reason given(by same Babagida) for moving the capital from Lagos to Abuja.

Osogbo was then selected for being the most populous town close to the center of the state, and also because of the already existing high level of commercial activities. It has (till date) a railway station that was used to transport cocoa seeds from Ondo, Ekiti and present Osun East(Ijesha land) to Lagos for exportation. Forget not that Ede is also a big town close to the center, but Osogbo was selected for its higher level of commercial activities.

Osogbo being the capital for 23 years now has gained enough population to beat Ilesha, which is normal for every state capital in Nigeria. Abuja had a population of less than a million when it was made the capital. Abuja of today is around 7m, this is just because it's the capital.

Using the numbers of LGA to determine population. 20LGAs are recognised in Lagos by the FG and 31LGAs for Osun. Does that translate to Osun having a higher population that Lagos?

dguyindcorner:

Are you that frustrated??

earthgreeners:
Weep not child.. Pele... Stop crying

Tolexander I assume is a reasonable bro and he should have reasonable reason(s) for what he has said. No need to go mad for finding faults(which I also do) in your man. Although, Aregbe is still preferable for me than the main guy the opposition has.

Tolexander: ya coming from me.

U won't just understand cos the media has been colonised and all we can see is propaganda. There are many things i wish i can post here which U don't understand that i was also naïve of but M̶̲̥̅γ̲̣̣̥ device I̶̲̥̅̊s̶̲̥̅̊ spoilt.

I'm not canvassing fọ̥r omisore and i'm not a partisan poster but for posterity sake.

Please, post them bro.

PaulJohn1:

Do a little research and you'll realise Ife is not close to being the second most populated. Remove the Population of the great OAU(of about 30-40k students) and you'll be left with reality.
Why do you think Ilesha was first considered to be the capital of the state during its creation in 1991?

It's simply because of the population advantage Ilesha had then over other towns in Osun. Although Ile-Ife was also considered, but it was solely because of the generally believed myth of the ancient town being the cradle of the Yorubas and also the home of one of the very few Grade one kings we have in the SW.

Both towns were then neglected because they were too extreme in location for a state capital. You'll remember that being located at the centre or close to was a prerequisite under Babagida regime(when the state was created) for selecting capitals. The reason given(by same Babagida) for moving the capital from Lagos to Abuja.

Osogbo was then selected for being the most populous town close to the center of the state, and also because of the already existing high level of commercial activities. It has (till date) a railway station that was used to transport cocoa seeds from Ondo, Ekiti and present Osun East(Ijesha land) to Lagos for exportation. Forget not that Ede is also a big town close to the center, but Osogbo was selected for its higher level of commercial activities.

Osogbo being the capital for 23 years now has gained enough population to beat Ilesha, which is normal for every state capital in Nigeria. Abuja had a population of less than a million when it was made the capital. Abuja of today is around 7m, this is just because it's the capital.

Using the numbers of LGA to determine population. 20LGAs are recognised in Lagos by the FG and 31LGAs for Osun. Does that translate to Osun having a higher population that Lagos?

i wish M̶̲̥̅γ̲̣̣̥ device I̶̲̥̅̊s̶̲̥̅̊ available t̲̅o̶̲̥̅̊ engage U!

But JU̶̲̥̅̊$t take this till when i พïℓℓ be fully back.

http://www.punchng.com/news/womenll-decide-outcome-of-osun-poll-says-report/

http://mobile.dudamobile.com/site/mydailynewswatchng?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.mydailynewswatchng.com%2Fosun-guber-inec-accredits-29-observers-registers-1-4m-voters%2F&dm_redirected=true#2772

Tolexander: ya coming from me.

U won't just understand cos the media has been colonised and all we can see is propaganda. There are many things i wish i can post here which U don't understand that i was also naïve of but M̶̲̥̅γ̲̣̣̥ device I̶̲̥̅̊s̶̲̥̅̊ spoilt.

I'm not canvassing fọ̥r omisore and i'm not a partisan poster but for posterity sake.

Let's have them when your phone is Ok.

PaulJohn1:

Please, post them bro.

M̶̲̥̅γ̲̣̣̥ device I̶̲̥̅̊s̶̲̥̅̊ faulty. That's the reason i didn't make any post f̶̲̥̅̊​ọ̥я​ the past few days and i'm not used t̲̅o̶̲̥̅̊ bb stuffs.

I think Tolexander was refering to landmass(from the map of Osun) when he said the two local govt in Ilesha are slightly bigger than Ife Central alone.

He's right, we all have the map of Osun State and from the map it's glaring Ilesha West and East are not too big.

But when you consider the Six Local Governments in Ijeshaland and the Four in Ifeland, you'll realize they(Ife and Ijesha) are almost the same size and most of the landmass are forest(very fertile land) that's begging for cultivation. I buy the idea of Aregbesola clearing forests for farmland and giving out to farmers(they may be APC members though).

Regarding the most populous between Ifeland and Ijeshaland, there's no way that could be ascertained not until credible population is conducted.

My parents were one of the Ijeshas that moved to Ife in 60s/70s due to economic edge Ile-Ife had over Ilesha then(OAU as a factor). Ijeshas like trading a lot, the market was moving in Ife then and people relocated to trade(Oshomaalo). There are more Ijeshas in Ife than Ifes in Ijeshaland.

@Topic........They are both controversial. I would have prefered another candidate but unfortunately they are the best out of the contenders so we either vote for AregbeRascal or vote OmiRascal. As for me, I'm confused and don't know whom to vote out of the two crooks.

I don't know the actual population of Osun State yet I believe not less than 55% of Osun residents are Muslims.

Religion is going to be a factor in the election.

I think OmiRascal shouldn't have used the line "I would return public schools to the missionaries if elected".

What would be the fate of the muslims when the public primary and secondary schools are given back to the original owners?

What's the assurance that the right to free education of muslim pupils would not be trampled upon by the churches?

The churches would renovate the schools to good taste no doubt but what about the muslims?

If they are stopped or discouraged from attending public schools, we shall have another BH/Almajiri problem in Osun and SW in another 15 to 20years.

I think Omisore shouldn't have used that line.

It's going to be an interesting election and I wish whoever emerges the best of luck.

I'm from Ilesha though born and raised in Ile-Ife. I'm a Christian(yet truth must be told).

Cheers.

Tolexander: M̶̲̥̅γ̲̣̣̥ device I̶̲̥̅̊s̶̲̥̅̊ faulty. That's the reason i didn't make any post f̶̲̥̅̊​ọ̥я​ the past few days and i'm not used t̲̅o̶̲̥̅̊ bb stuffs.

Okay. I noticed your absence too.
Thanks for the link, I checked it and it confirms my assertion of Oshogbo being the most populatous town. Osogbo and Olorunda local governmnt areas are both in Osogbo, which are the first and third LGAs with the highest numbers of voters respectively, with a combined voters of over 180k.

Going by the stat in that link, Ife is second in population then.
Lastly, Ilesha has four LGAs and not two that you said. The whole of Ijesha has six LGAs.

Have a good day.

PaulJohn1:

Okay. I noticed your absence too.
Thanks for the link, I checked it and it confirms my assertion of Oshogbo being the most populatous town. Osogbo and Olorunda local governmnt areas are both in Osogbo, which are the first and third LGAs with the highest numbers of voters respectively, with a combined voters of over 180k.

Going by the stat in that link, Ife is second in population then.
Lastly, Ilesha has four LGAs and not two that you said. The whole of Ijesha has six LGAs.

Have a good day.

The Local Government in Ijeshaland are....

Ilesha West LG

Ilesha East LG

Atakumosa East LG Iperindo

Atakumosa West LG Osu

Obokun LG Ibokun

Oriade LG Ijebu-Jesa

Ilesha has just 2 LG.



That of Ife are

Ife Central LG Ajebamidele Ife

Ife East LG Oke-Ogbo Ife

Ife North LG Ipetumodu

Ife South LG Ifetedo

The points raised in this article are true. Am currently in Osun state and I can connect with what has been raised so far.
The woes of PDP started with the selection of omisore who's not loved by most people here because of his tainted image. To the fact that the PDP is a house divided against itself. The party big wigs were allowed to leave easily. Adeleke, Akinbade, Teslim Igbaleye et all who can pull the crowd for them are now with the APC

The PDP's campaign have not only been poor but appalling. His campaign team have really not done enough as they don't even campaign as the under dogs. You even wonder some times what they even depend on. Thinking that they can win without campaigning vigorously. No much radio jingles, house to house campaign, campaigns to different constituencies as is been done by the APC.

Konmight:

The Local Government in Ijeshaland are....

Ilesha West LG

Ilesha East LG

Atakumosa East LG Iperindo

Atakumosa West LG Osu

Obokun LG Ibokun

Oriade LG Ijebu-Jesa

Ilesha has just 2 LG.



That of Ife are

Ife Central LG Ajebamidele Ife

Ife East LG Oke-Ogbo Ife

Ife North LG Ipetumodu

Ife South LG Ifetedo

Oh, I'm wrong then. Noted