Posted by: Okanlawon O.

* Goodluck Jonathan is currently the only presidential candidate in Nigeria. The others are nowhere to be found.

I have been a student of elections for 42 years. I obtained my first degree in History and Politics from Warwick University, Coventry, England in 1975. In my second year at Warwick, I obtained a scholarship to visit the United States to study the circumstances behind the 1973 election of Maynard Jackson as the first African-American Mayor of Atlanta, and of a major Southern metropolis in the United States since the American Civil War.

Since then, I have been fascinated by elections. Unfortunately, Nigeria remained under military rule for an inordinate length of time. The most fascinating election I have ever observed was the first election of Barack Obama as the first African-American president of the United States in 2008. Obama secured the nomination of the Democratic Party against the formidable Hilary Clinton; and he then went on to defeat the Republican nominee, John McCain, in the general election.

Anticlimax
Obama’s 2007/2008 election campaign has since become a textbook-case of outstanding political strategizing in the United States. His superior tactics ensured that his victory quickly became inevitable, even against all the odds. Therefore, some of us were able to call his nomination as Democratic Party candidate and election as president very early; to the discomfiture of doubting Thomases who could not imagine a black U.S. president in their lifetime.

The forthcoming 2015 presidential election in Nigeria is another election that has become easy to predict, but for different reasons. Yes, it is a much ballyhooed election, especially since the emergence of the All Progressives Congress. However, the APC has turned out to be a newspaper political party and nothing more. Its novelty has long died down and a new harsh and dismal political reality now confronts it.
As a result, the 2015 election is not likely to live up to its hype. As a matter of fact, all the evidence now indicates the election will be a cakewalk for the PDP. Goodluck Jonathan will not only be re-elected as president, he will be re-elected by a landslide.

PDP failure

Ordinarily, the forthcoming election should be a problematic one for Goodluck Jonathan. After 15 years, Nigerians are generally fed up with the PDP. 15 years is more than enough time to change drastically the electrical power situation in the country. But this has yet to happen to any appreciable degree.

One year is more than sufficient to make a big impact on the problem of corruption in Nigeria. Again, this has not happened in 15 years. The security situation in the country is now critical and is likely to get much worse before it gets better. 219 kidnapped Chibok schoolgirls are still missing, with only dubious promissory notes offered by the president for their imminent rescue.

For these and other reasons, the 2015 presidential elections should be a difficult one for Goodluck Jonathan. When the Iranians held American diplomats hostage under the regime of Ayatollah Khomeini in 1979, it led to the defeat of incumbent President Jimmy Carter in the United States presidential elections of 1980.

However, in the case of Nigeria, my contention is that the re-election of Jonathan in 2015 is going to be easy. Jonathan will defeat his APC challenger convincingly. He is also likely to obtain the requisite one third of the votes in virtually every state of the federation.

Shambolic opposition

The main reason for this conclusion is that Jonathan is facing a shambolic APC opposition that does not seem to have a clue about what it takes to run an effective national presidential campaign. This explains why, till date, Jonathan is still the only candidate running for the presidency. Although he has yet to declare his candidacy officially, even a three year-old Nigerian child knows he will be the PDP candidate.

However, his APC challenger remains unknown. It is incredible that barely six months to an election where the opposition hopes to unseat a president who has been in office for nearly six years, the APC bigwigs have yet to agree on who will be his challenger. Moreover, the INEC timetable favours the PDP as opposed to the APC. By decreeing that the party primaries for the presidential elections must wait until October 2014, and the campaigns must not start until November, INEC has created a situation where Jonathan has become virtually the only candidate. Just by being president, he is already campaigning and running for re-election.

This means there is now insufficient time to socialize Nigerians about the APC candidate. The only opposition candidates that need no national introduction are Buhari, Atiku and Tinubu. But the candidacies of these men are dead in the water. Buhari and Atiku have contested the presidency in the past and failed woefully. Should they try again, they will fail again.

Tinubu’s candidacy is a nonstarter, given Obasanjo’s recent eight-year representation of the South-West in Aso Rock. This leaves the APC with no candidates of note to field against Jonathan. The only realistic APC candidate at this eleventh hour can only be a national nonentity; and among the non-entities, I include men like Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano. An APC nonentity cannot prevail against Jonathan and the PDP juggernaut.

Shallow party-structure

The only party that can field a nonentity and still win the presidential election in Nigeria is the PDP. This is because it is the only longstanding national party in Nigeria and, unlike the APC; it has been in power for 15 years. That means the PDP has firm roots nationwide. But the APC only has roots in the South-West, and even there, this is beginning to unravel; as the recent elections in Ondo and Ekiti indicate.

Buhari is very popular in the North, but he is hopeless at building party-structures. Virtually every party Buhari built imploded. Buhari is a one-man party. This is not very useful in an election where Buhari himself is not a viable APC presidential candidate. The APC has excited itself as a result of the defection of some five PDP governors to its ranks. But this is also not very useful because these governors could not defect with their PDP party-structures.

The defector PDP governors have brought a great deal of publicity to the APC. But whatever assets they had to offer has long fizzled out. A testament to this is the ease with which Murtala Nyako was impeached as governor of Adamawa State. With all the noise Nyako was making, it was easy to forget that he had no roots on the ground. It was all smoke and mirrors that did not go beyond newspaper headlines.

No game-plan

Where then is the APC taking the fight to the formidable PDP? Literally nowhere at the moment! The APC peaked too early. As a matter of fact, it is the party now in retreat virtually everywhere. It lost to the PDP in Ondo and Ekiti, part of its South-West stronghold. Nyako of Adamawa has been impeached. Al-Makura of Nasarawa is on the ropes. Other APC governors are under threat of impeachment, but no such threat hangs over the head of any PDP governor.

The defection of the PDP governors to the APC has turned out to be a blessing in initial disguise. From the point of view of political strategy, it would have been better if they had remained in the PDP as APC wolves in PDP clothing. This might have been useful in undermining Jonathan’s candidacy. Indeed, they could have challenged him for the PDP ticket, not with any hope of winning, but just in order to dent his strength and create some havoc within the PDP.

However, by defecting, the rebel PDP governors ushered in peace to the PDP. Simultaneously, they exported their wahala to the APC where they are now at loggerheads with the old APC brigade in bitter internal struggles for supremacy. For a party that has yet to find its feet, this has been disastrous. Indeed, the defections are now going in the other direction, from APC to PDP; as happened recently in Zamfara. Even the defector PDP governors are likely to lose their seats in the near-future, because defection is proscribed in the Constitution and the PDP has taken the matter to court.

So what exactly is the APC game-plan? Nothing much! All we have at the moment is Lai Mohammed coming up incessantly with bombastic broadsides against Goodluck Jonathan and the PDP in the newspapers. If they really believe this is the way to unseat a six-year-old president and dislodge a fifteen-year-old government, then the APC bigwigs need to enroll in NIPSS, Kuru for courses in “Nigerian Elections 101.”


Boko Haram factor

And then there is the Boko Haram insurgency and the albatross of the kidnapped Chibok schoolgirls. The strategy of the terrorists is that every explosion is supposed to discredit the Jonathan administration. In spite of its hatred for the entire Nigerian political establishment, there is no doubt that the Boko Haram would prefer a Northern Muslim president to Southern Christian Goodluck Jonathan.

For this very reason, a vote for APC is now more likely to be construed as a vote of surrender to the insurgency. While Nigerians are very concerned about the security situation in the country, they are even less likely to succumb to its incorrigible purpose. The indiscriminate bombing of innocent Nigerians for the sake of an agenda that is alien to Nigeria cannot but rally people nationwide behind President Goodluck Jonathan.

A few days ago, Vanguard published a Special Report captioned: “Six Months to Elections, Where Are the Presidential Aspirants?” The answer is that Goodluck Jonathan is currently the only presidential candidate in Nigeria. The others are nowhere to be found.

The APC is a useful counterpoise to the PDP in the Nigerian political equation. But it is only likely to pose a strong challenge to the ruling party in 2019, when there will be no incumbent president to contend with, and after it might have sorted out its internal contradictions and developed firm roots nationwide. But as it is today, the APC is not even likely to survive impending defeat in 2015.

Source: http://www.naijame.com/2014/07/why-goodluck-jonathan-is-likely-to-win.html

What sayest thou?

Why wasteth thy ink...oh thy time to writing this? As for me and my house we wont vote PDP...no not GEJ

gej till 2019999

Buhari 2015-2019.

This man is a strategist, what he wrote here is absolute gospel!
Seun Obinoscopy do something.

I didn't even bother to read the poo. Let me show you on reason he won't...



"Stealing is not Corruption" - GEJ
Thief Commander of the Corrupt Forces

without sentiments, this is the truth.

Kudos brother!! You just hit the nail at the head.It wil take a miracle for Buhari to defeat Gej because of the above stated reason.Come to think of it Buhari is a honest man and he is not corrupt,a kind of leader that this country needs but posterity has reject him,the vote he wil get from Nigerians cannot make him a president.To me I think is high time the youths are given the chance to lead this country so that they can bring fresh ideas,unbias ideas,ideas that are not base on religious fore fathers etc what a leader could not achieve when he or she is in 30s,is it when he is close to his grave that he wil achieve it? My opinon tho

vicadex07: I didn't even bother to read the poo. Let me show you on reason he won't...



"Stealing is not Corruption" - GEJ
Thief Commander of the Corrupt Forces

He is right Stealing is nt corruption. Ask me why cos corruption is a system and stealing is not a system.You know nothing about governance.

Till then

TellBlazer: He is right Stealing is nt corruption. Ask me why cos corruption is a system and stealing is not a system.You know nothing about governance.

You're just another paid lapdog... I can see you have collected your share of the loot that's why your brain is on auto-malfunction.

Institutionalised stealing is corruption and anybody that steals in position of power is simply corrupt but since daftness and cluelessness are traits you have inherited from your paymaster GEJ, you won't understand.

"Corruption is not Nigeria's Problem" - GEJ
Commander in Thief of the Corrupt Forces

vicadex07:

You're just another paid lapdog... I can see you have collected your share of the loot that's why your brain is on auto-malfunction.
Anybody that steals in position of power is simply corrupt but since daftness and cluelessness are traits you have inherited from your paymaster GEJ, you won't understand.

"Corruption is not Nigeria's Problem" - GEJ
Commander in Thief of the Corrupt Forces

Joining issue with you is like pouring water on stone.Is not about calling names but about having somethings upstairs which Gej has that made him a phd.You don't buy it in the market.

TellBlazer: Joining issue with you is like pouring water on stone.Is not about calling names but about having somethings upstairs which Gej has that made him a phd.You don't buy it in the market.

Lol... PHD in this Nigeria where even a mechanic can purchase certificate for a university's degree with the right amount of money. Forget all the paper qualifications he has...he's got nothing upstairs period!!! Except thiefry of course...

Even Patience I learnt was a teacher/lecturer...I wonder what will be the fate of her students will be today

vicadex07:

Lol... PHD in this Nigeria where even a mechanic can purchase certificate for a university's degree with the right amount of money. Forget all the paper qualifications he has...he's got nothing upstairs period!!! Except thiefry of course...

Even Patience I learnt was a teacher/lecturer...I wonder what will be the fate of her students will be today

Show me the one you have bought,If you can't pls don't quote me again. Bye

TellBlazer: Show me the one you have bought,If you can't pls don't quote me again. Bye

Actually am beginning to sense yours is bought cos your sense of reasoning is quite parallel to that of GEJ.

If you don't know certificates can be bought in Nigeria (in fact there is nothing you cannot get with the right amount money), then your case is irredeemable.

Gej till haters quench.

This article is the basic truth, well written, and straight to the point, What many in the APC don't realize is that the 2015 Presidential election has been won already, at the moment the PDP only seems to be targeting strategic gubernatorial seats, Heck, some have begun angling for the 2019 presidential ticket, a la Muazu,Mark,Sambo..........APC is heading to a slaughter in 2015, even Lagos an erstwhile strong state of ours could be lost to a possible Agbaje candidature. In Kano for all GEJ's unpopularity It will take a lot to defeat a Mohammed Abacha on the PDP ticket, I could go on......elections are not won on nairaland or Twitter or Lai Mohammed's statements.

this guy is a goat thousands of Nigeria was crying for food to survive and you here give us excuse rubbish anyway we shall live beyond 2015 you will know Nigeria aren't sling this usless ibo Jonathan have poison they are heart that is why they singing Jonathan praise

vicadex07:

Lol... PHD in this Nigeria where even a mechanic can purchase certificate for a university's degree with the right amount of money. Forget all the paper qualifications he has...he's got nothing upstairs period!!! Except thiefry of course...

Even Patience I learnt was a teacher/lecturer...I wonder what will be the fate of her students will be today

do you mean to say gej purchased his phd cert the same way ojuyobo purchased his famous Toronto cert?

vicadex07:

Actually am beginning to sense yours is bought cos your sense of reasoning is quite parallel to that of GEJ.

If you don't know certificates can be bought in Nigeria (in fact there is nothing you cannot get with the right amount money), then your case is irredeemable.

Yes you are right.
Many students in my department don't come for classes at all until when exam is around the corner and yet they get more grades than others. Why?
They obviously "runs" their courses and bribe the lecturers. There is almost nothing money cannot achieve in Nigeria of today.

tonytony208:

do you mean to say gej purchased his phd cert the same way ojuyobo purchased his famous Toronto cert?

You're not far from the truth

I belief APC members will be so shock on 15/02/2015 that they will think they are dreaming by the effect of what will befall them. This Fresh Air is a must for all to breathe till 2019.

vicadex07:

You're not far from the truth

you just agreed there is no difference btw gej and Tinubu. By implication, you are saying there is no difference btw pdp and apc except in their party names and party symbols ( umbrella and broom). So do you think it is reasonable for me to vote apc when i know they as bad as pdp?

tonytony208:

you just agreed there is no difference btw gej and Tinubu. By implication, you are saying there is no difference btw pdp and apc except in their party names and party symbols ( umbrella and broom). So do you think it is reasonable for me to vote apc when i know they as bad as pdp?

Its just sad that in Nigeria of today, APC is the only strong and viable opposition to the evil called PDP. Yes I'll vote for APC in the absence of any other viable choice. Anything but PDP. PDP has been destroying Nigeria since 1999 and I don't think they have anything different to offer Nigerians come 2015.

At least let's give the opposition a chance for once and see what they too can achieve. Am tired of PDP and am tired of GEJ - Thief Commander of the Corrupt Forces of Nigeria.

vicadex07:

Its just sad that in Nigeria of today, APC is the only strong and viable opposition to the evil called PDP. Yes I'll vote for APC in the absence of any other viable choice. Anything but PDP. PDP has been destroying Nigeria since 1999 and I don't think they have anything different to offer Nigerians come 2015.

At least let's give the opposition a chance for once and see what they too can achieve. Am tired of PDP and am tired of GEJ - Thief Commander of the Corrupt Forces of Nigeria.

i shared your opinion too when it was only ACN. But my trust had wanned since APC started admitting thieves (nPDP) and calling them "born again" because they have now joined APC. The same APC had condemned the nPDP while they were in PDP. That to me is like speaking from 2 sides of the mouth. They also went begging to OBJ; i mean the same OBJ they condemned vehemently earlier. Lier (lai) muhammed also contributed in no mean measure to my total rejection of APC with his consistent but glaringly insensible and insensitive stances about some of the achievements of gej government. One of them is how he argued against the irrefutable fact that the economic rebasing had made nigerian economy the largest in Africa. I mean international organizations gave credence to this, but the Lier (by name and action) feels he knows more than them all. Even if you will oppose a government, it should be done wisely. I mean there are times to oppose and there are times to rejoice with the opposition. This lack of tact has destroyed APC's image as far as i am concerned. Lai mohammed was acting like he would prefer to hear only bad news about nigeria while GEJ is in office. Then ojuyobo and his unguarded utterances and insults against his president are other derailing factors. APC governors are as corrupt as PDP governors; the only difference is that corrupt practices by one party gets broadcasted louder than that of the other. I mean, what is the idea of constructing 1km of road for 1 billion naira? Believe me, that is daylight robbery. I'm also not able to shake off the convinction that there is some kind of link btw APC and boko haram.

This is no news, its pretty clear

Been obvious he had won since mid year

tonytony208:

[s]i shared your opinion too when it was only ACN. But my trust had wanned since APC started admitting thieves (nPDP) and calling them "born again" because they have now joined APC. The same APC had condemned the nPDP while they were in PDP. That to me is like speaking from 2 sides of the mouth. They also went begging to OBJ; i mean the same OBJ they condemned vehemently earlier. Lier (lai) muhammed also contributed in no mean measure to my total rejection of APC with his consistent but glaringly insensible and insensitive stances about some of the achievements of gej government. One of them is how he argued against the irrefutable fact that the economic rebasing had made nigerian economy the largest in Africa. I mean international organizations gave credence to this, but the Lier (by name and action) feels he knows more than them all. Even if you will oppose a government, it should be done wisely. I mean there are times to oppose and there are times to rejoice with the opposition. This lack of tact has destroyed APC's image as far as i am concerned. Lai mohammed was acting like he would prefer to hear only bad news about nigeria while GEJ is in office. Then ojuyobo and his unguarded utterances and insults against his president are other derailing factors. APC governors are as corrupt as PDP governors; the only difference is that corrupt practices by one party gets broadcasted louder than that of the other. I mean, what is the idea of constructing 1km of road for 1 billion naira? Believe me, that is daylight robbery. I'm also not able to shake off the convinction that there is some kind of link btw APC and boko haram.[/s]

sit at home mumuuuu... PDP apologist..dey foool urself

How can someone be a student of election for 42 years , and come up with this analsyis.
I assume he has o year of experience in Nigeria's election.
2015 elections will be sharply divided along religious and ethnic lines in most cases.

It is 6 months + to election, but one thing that i am sure of is that there can ne no landslide win for any one who will eventually win.

Barring any unforeseen circumstances, GEJ will lose in a free and fair elections.

My reasons

(1)There would be only 1 strong northern candidate in 2015, unlike 2011 where we had 3 strong northern candidates (buhari, shekarau, ribadu)

(2) There is a stronger platform for national opposition through the APC, which still controls at least 14 states compared with 2011

(3) Virtually, all the northern PDP governors are not seeking re-election, and some might still cause rancour in PDP primaries and even defect e.g jigawa state.

(4) GEJ will win with landslide in Rivers, Imo and edo, but the volume of votes will decrease considerably compared with 2011 election.

(5) GEJ will most likely fail to get 25% of votes in like 12 of the 19 northern states,



(6) GEJ will struggle in the SW, he will be so lucky, if he gets 40% of the SW votes versus 58% of SW votes he got in 2011.




Where is the landslide coming from?

emiye: How can someone be a student of election for 42 years , and come up with this analsyis.
I assume he has o year of experience in Nigeria's election.
2015 elections will be sharply divided along religious and ethnic lines in most cases.
It is 6 months + to election, but one thing that i am sure of is that there can ne no landslide win for any one who will eventually win.
Barring any unforeseen circumstances, GEJ will lose in a free and fair elections.
My reasons
(1)There would be only 1 strong northern candidate in 2015, unlike 2011 where we had 3 strong northern candidates (buhari, shekarau, ribadu)
(2) There is a stronger platform for national opposition through the APC, which still controls at least 14 states compared with 2011
(3) Virtually, all the northern PDP governors are not seeking re-election, and some might still cause rancour in PDP primaries and even defect e.g jigawa state.
(4) GEJ will win with landslide in Rivers, Imo and edo, but the volume of votes will decrease considerably compared with 2011 election.
(5) GEJ will most likely fail to get 25% of votes in like 12 of the 19 northern states,
(6) GEJ will struggle in the SW, he will be so lucky, if he gets 40% of the SW votes versus 58% of SW votes he got in 2011.
Where is the landslide coming from?

Tell d ode OP. He Knows nothing about Nigeria politics, with all his yeye expired British degrees from the dark ages.

Mr. OP : You want to proffer analysis of a more complicated and interconnected situation than you ever discussed in your old school political class.

During your dark times, would anyone believe if u said a dark skinned man will rule the US. Russia will control energy and politics in Europe and a man from the creeks called Jonathan will rule this country.

You need adequate data to prove ur aba made hypotheses. Mr Op u presented none.