World’s largest political risk advisory, Eurasia Group, has released its forecast for next year’s presidential election in Nigeria, predicting that President Goodluck Jonathan would be re-elected.

It warned that a “desperate” Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), “facing the potential loss of its power (which dates back to 1999), would exacerbate profligacy, policy politicization, oil theft, and regional/sectarian tensions”.

Eurasia gave PDP a 75% chance of winning the election but said APC, with 25%, still had a chance “if it can mobilize behind a strong northern presidential candidate that has Buhari’s backing and a vice president who can deliver votes and high turnout in the southwest”.

The group said the defections that affected PDP have stopped and have even been reversed in some cases, noting that the biggest opposition party, All Progressives Congress (APC), was in “disarray”.

The report was obviously written before the Osun governorship election, which was won by APC, as it only made reference to the Ekiti poll which saw the opposition party lose in every local government.

The Africa Director of Eurasia, Philippe de Pontet, wrote that the six months leading to the presidential election “will be tense”, forecasting “constant politicking, attacks by Boko Haram… and policy stagnation” ─ and a possible outbreak of riot in northern Nigeria if Jonathan is re-elected.

Pontet wrote: “A Jonathan win could feed political unrest in the north, but makes it less likely that rebels in the Niger Delta re-ignite their attacks on oil infrastructure and personnel.”

Nigeria’s political risk was upgraded from “negative” to “neutral” in what he described as “a positive net for political stability”.

Pontet said it was unlikely there would be fiscal or monetary policy “upheaval” and that the campaigns may not completely upend the investment climate or reverse Nigeria’s economic momentum.

Eurasia Group has offices in New York, Washington, DC, London and Tokyo.




Source :

2015: Eurasia forecasts big win for Jonathan http:///7ujgOsWmxr via @thecableng @abati1990 @renoomokri @doyinokupe @Nat_YouthLeader @ochjoseph

Jona..pls take note of profligacy, oil theft, policy politisation, regional and sectarian tensions.

some ignoramus will perceive this 'forecast' as the election result.

reedbam: some ignoramus will perceive this 'forecast' as the election result.

Guy this is from a very reputable firm if you are conversant with the word opnion Poll this is not far from it it gives an indication of what is most likely to happen ! Good luck is transforming Nigeria from Agriculture to road and bridge networks. From Education to complete ovehaul of our rail system , today a our elections are "Freeer" and "fairer" , Today a young boy or Girl with a good Business proposal can apply and receive up to 10 million Naira grant FOC via youwin.

Even the Almajiree's have felt the Impact of transformation under GEJ with over 200 schools equipped with hostels , mallams house etc

the North alone got 9 of the 12 brand new University in just 2 years that is unprecedented in the history of Nigeria

Our president has achieved so much despites spending a huge chuck of the federal allocation on security , Now imagine how much development Nigeria will see when those sons of the devil are finally tamed!

Goodluck is the only president who can guarantee 30 percent youth affirmation

Goodluck 2015 Allah ya sa Albarka !!!

ochejoseph: Guy this is from a very reputable firm if you are conversant with the word opnion Poll this is not far from it it gives an indication of what is most likely to happen ! Good luck is transforming Nigeria from Agriculture to road and bridge networks. From Education to complete ovehaul of our rail system , today a our elections are "Freeer" and "fairer" , Today a young boy or Girl with a good Business proposal can apply and receive up to 10 million Naira grant FOC via youwin.

Even the Almajiree's have felt the Impact of transformation under GEJ with over 200 schools equipped with hostels , mallams house etc

the North alone got 9 of the 12 brand new University in just 2 years that is unprecedented in the history of Nigeria

Our president has achieved so much despites spending a huge chuck of the federal allocation on security , Now imagine how much development Nigeria will see when those sons of the devil are finally tamed!

Goodluck is the only president who can guarantee 30 percent youth affirmation

Goodluck 2015 Allah ya sa Albarka !!!

fair enough. Outline the cons too