ABUJA (Reuters) - Not many presidents could survive three multi-billion dollar government oil corruption scandals and a wave of cold-blooded killings and kidnappings of civilians by Islamist militants still holding hundreds of schoolgirls aftersix months.Nigeria's president Goodluck Jonathan has not only survived, he will seek reelection in February stronger than ever, after five years in a job no one expected him to get.Jonathan's support base within the ruling party is now unchallenged, a rare feat for the often fractious People's Democratic Party (PDP), while the main opposition APC coalition is split between two contestants for the presidency.The government announced a ceasefire with the Islamist Boko Haram rebels 10 days ago, ahead oftalks in neighboring Chad to secure the release of more than 200 girls seized from Chibok village in April in an abduction that shocked the world.If the talks are successful it would help the president's image. But nothing has come of it yet and violence has since surged, with dozens more children kidnapped.Jonathan has defended his overstretched military's efforts against a Boko Haram insurgency that has killed thousands. In the case of the failure to free the schoolgirls, he has said any rescue attempt would endanger their lives.Meanwhile, apart from the security challenges, his government also has been beset by corruption allegations.A parliamentary report detailed a $6.8 billion fuel subsidy fraud. A government investigation revealed corrupt cut price crude sales to oil majors that cost the treasury billions. And a former central banker has reported that between$10 and billion $20 billion had been diverted by thestate oil firm over 18 months between 2012 and last year.The government pledged to investigate the first two cases and denied the third.Last month, South Africa froze two payments fromthe Jonathan administration totaling $15 million that it suspected were for illegal arms deals. Nigeria said the deals were legal.Yet it is a testament to Nigeria's complex mix of ethnic rivalry, patronage and intense competition for centralized oil wealth in Africa's top producer that Jonathan can brush off these various scandals and attract a high level of support.
WEAKER OPPOSITION
Jonathan, a Christian southerner, was an accidental president, taking over in 2009 after President Umaru Yar'adua, a Muslim from the north, died from illness.When Jonathan was elected to his own term in 2011, many in the north resented his decision to run, believing he had torn up an unwritten rule that power should rotate between mainly Muslim northand mainly Christian south every two terms.Former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari, who lost to Jonathan in 2011, and defected PDP ex-vice president Atiku Abubakar are vying for the opposition APC ticket. Both launched bids in the past month, focusing on security and graft.Roddy Barclay, senior Africa analyst at Control Risks, a political risk consultancy, sees two"principle factors for Jonathan's robust position in spite of the scandals and failings which have rocked his government"."Firstly, the primacy of money and patronage in determining electoral outcomes in Nigeria," meansan incumbent gets a huge advantage, and second,"the opposition lacks steadfast unity".That marks a big change from less than a year ago. In December it was the PDP that was in crisis. Thirty seven lawmakers defected to the APC that month, demolishing the PDP's lower house majority. Rotimi Amaechi, powerful governor of the oil hub state of Rivers, also defected.The same month, Jonathan's mentor and PDP Godfather, ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo, wrotea scathing letter saying it would be "fatally morallyflawed" for Jonathan to seek re-election in 2015 because of corruption under his rule. Jonathan called the intervention "unjustifiable and indecorous".Ten months on and the APC has failed to capitalize. It has not agreed on a presidential candidate and several disillusioned APC figures have flipped to the PDP, underscoring the fluid nature of Nigerian party politics.They include popular two-term ex-governor of Kano state Ibrahim Shakarau, a Buhari rival, and former anti-corruption chief Nuhu Ribadu, denying the APC a strong anti-graft platform, although Buhari still has strong anti-corruption credentials."MODEST EXPECTATIONS"In June, the APC then lost a governorship election in southwestern Ekiti state to the ruling party."The opposition is cannibalizing itself. Its top elites are vying against one another. That's a glidepath for President Jonathan," said Eurasia Group'sPhilippe de Pontet."Had the APC sustained its momentum from 5-6 months ago ... we'd be in a different world."On Dec 2, the dynamic could shift when the party picks its candidate. Buhari earned a reputation for cracking down on corruption during his time in power in 1983-85, and most Nigerians agree he did not use the post to enrich himself, but it is not clear whether he would win votes from APC supporters in the south.The emotional conflict felt by Barrister Isaac Matthew illustrates Jonathan's staying power.Driven by the plight of the schoolgirls to leave a court case he was defending to join protesters demanding more action to rescue them, he says Jonathan bears ultimate responsibility since"leaders are supposed to protect their people"."I'm still probably going to vote for him," he said, citing Jonathan's concentration on power reform and some works Matthew said had greatly improved the road network."The opposition has no credible candidate to stand against him. Not Atiku (Abubakar) and not Buhari."The power sector is under improvement, but that may not draw votes since the supply in one of the world's most electricity-starved countries has fallen in the short term.Many voters are likely to see the Boko Haram insurgency, which only affects the remote northeast apart from occasional bomb attacks in the capital or other cities, as just one problem in their large, diverse country."Expectations in the electorate are fairly modest and they are hugely disenfranchised, despite ... years of civilian rule," said Antony Goldman, head of Nigeria-focused PM Consulting."You don't need to be popular or successful in conventional terms to win an election in Nigeria," he said, although he added that no president had managed to stay popular after four years in office, and the APC had yet to present a clear alternative.
EBOLA NOT A FACTOR SO FAR
One issue that has not yet played an important role is Ebola, rampant in some other West African states. A mixture of luck and impressively decisiveaction has meant Africa's most populous country was able to avoid a potentially devastating epidemic after a Liberian brought it to the megacity of Lagos, but the virus could still come back to plague Nigeria, with unpredictable politicalconsequences.Jonathan's assumed decision to run has widened a divide between elites in Nigeria's south and north because of a feeling in the north that it is stilltheir "turn" to rule.That makes violence likely, especially if the poll is close. In 2011, more than 800 were killed and 65,000 displaced in three days of violence after Jonathan beat Buhari in the poll.If Buhari, now 71, gets the ticket but loses the election again, his supporters may have less reason to end the mayhem so quickly if they sensehe has missed his last chance.(This story has been refiled to add missing letter to 'beset', paragraph eight)(Editing by Philippa Fletcher and Peter Graff)Email Article
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0IG1E220141027?irpc=932

.

NL's resident APC crew, berem,egift,barcanista,omenka,gbawe will claim GEJ paid off The world's top news agency

SenseiX:
NL's resident APC crew, berem,egift,barcanista,omenka,gbawe will claim GEJ paid off The world's top news agency

Dude, this article actually insults Nigerians as unthinking for supporting GEJ.

Nonsense! We know GEJ will win already

From the analysis, I can't see how Jonathan can survive hurricane Buhari. Besides, incumbents have always been touted favourite, but what happened in Malawi, Cote d voire, senegal and others will repeat itself again.

Sai Buhari 2015
#i-Believe

Sincere9gerian:
Nonsense! We know GEJ will win already

llol....whatever you smoke

SenseiX:
NL's resident APC crew, berem,egift,barcanista,omenka,gbawe will claim GEJ paid off The world's top news agency

Don't be so naïve. If anything, I'd rather think APC paid Reuters to publish this. It is an indictment on Jonathan's admin!!!

ISpiksDaTroof:
Dude, this article actually insults Nigerians as unthinking for supporting GEJ.

hahaha

omenka:
Don't be so naïve. If anything, I'd rather think APC paid Reuters to publish this. It is an indictment on Jonathan's admin!!!

Reno isn't smart to hire sensible trolls

The useless Reueters who gloat on the exploits of Bokoharam succeded in painting the GEJ govt in bad light, called Amaechi powerful despite his shameless antecedents, projected Buhari as an anti-corruption agent without any references despite the popular looted $700M and $2.5B hanging around his neck, downplayed the power reforms and continued their praise of Bokoharam like they've always done.

The true enemies of Nigeria are no more in hiding.

barcanista:
Reno isn't smart to hire sensible trolls

It is such a damn shame. The article is riddled with unpalatable indictments walahi!!

this time. there's nothing like
I have no shoes.
fresh air.
the man can never win next year.

ratiken:
The useless Reueters who gloat on the exploits of Bokoharam succeded in painting the GEJ govt in bad light, called Amaechi powerful despite his shameless antecedents, projected Buhari as an anti-corruption agent without any references despite the popular looted $700M and $2.5B hanging around his neck, downplayed the power reforms and continued their praise of Bokoharam like they've always done.

The true enemies of Nigeria are no more in hiding.

Cry us a River!!!! GMB is a reputed nationalist and antiCorruption crusader, not just crusader but a no nonsense man when it comes to gross misconduct. Reuters and other reputable outfit respects him. Unlike the clueless clown in Aso Rock

saTAN shame unto you

GMB For President 2015
#i-believe

barcanista:
Cry us a River!!!! GMB is a reputed nationalist and antiCorruption crusader, not just crusader but a no nonsense man when it comes to gross misconduct. Reuters and other reputable outfit respects him. Unlike the clueless clown in Aso Rock

saTAN shame unto you

GMB For President 2015
#i-believe

The name Buhari is already bad news in Nigeria. We dont need anymore publicity to put him in bad light..... he's already there. We are only talking about the way folks like you and reuters try to sell a product that has remained unsellable since 2003.
Probably after the 2015 loss, the terrorist can retire from causing the country much violence and pain.

If APC love this country has they always claim, they should not use Buhari for president.Every body know that if he lose there will be problem in the country.

since its reuter analysi dat will vote him inn...let dem cum nd put him dia lets see..

understand st=27556895:
NL's resident APC crew, berem,egift,barcanista,omenka,gbawe will claim GEJ paid off The world's top news agency

Try to read n understand b4 u comment