By Tim Cocks 5 hours ago
By Tim Cocks

LAGOS (Reuters) - "I am not a rich person, I can't give you a pocketful of dollars or naira to purchase your support," Nigeria's former military leader Muhammadu Buhari wrote to opposition delegates last week before they chose him to contest next year's presidential election.


"I want a Nigeria ... where corruption no longer trespasses into our institutions and national behaviour."

His words struck a chord with Nigerians fed up with leaders filling their pockets. They also highlight his main selling point: during his previous stint in power from 1983-85 he is widely believed to have kept his fingers out of the till.

Buhari faces President Goodluck Jonathan in a Feb. 14 election in Africa's biggest economy that analysts think may be too close to call.

Graft scandals, most recently a claim by a former central bank governor that between $10 billion and $20 billion owed to state coffers by the national oil company were not remitted, have fuelled public anger. The government has promised an audit.

Buhari has growing appeal among an intellectual class in whose minds he has taken on almost messianic qualities as the man who can save Nigeria. Others remember less celebrated bits of his past -- like crackdowns on press freedom and detaining political opponents without charge.

Either way, he will also prove a divisive figure in a vote in which ethnic and religious sentiments remain paramount.

"People love him or they hate him. There's no middle ground," said Kayode Akindele, CEO of consultancy 46 Parallels.

ASCETIC

His image as a sandal-wearing ascetic has appeal in a nation where power and champagne-swigging wealth often go hand in hand.

"He doesn't love money. He doesn't care about making money. This is what Nigeria needs of a leader," said Haruna Mohammed Yogara, an opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) official who voted for Buhari to represent the party in the primaries.

At the same time, the government's failure to quell an Islamist insurgency in the northeast has heightened the general's appeal as a military strongman, a type Nigerians were pretty sick of when democracy returned in 1999 after decades of army rule.


Buhari's message is simple: Nigeria's two biggest ills are corruption and insecurity, and he cracked down on both in 1983.

"He's been tested on both issues before and he passed," APC Senator Babafemi Ojudu told Reuters.

Then, as now, Nigeria faced economic turmoil from collapsing oil prices. Then president Shehu Shagari was accused of wasting money on corruption -- much as this government has been dogged with oil corruption scandals.

Insecurity, from militia in neighbouring Chad, threatened Nigeria's remote northeast, just as Boko Haram does today. Buhari, as army commander under Shagari, drove the Chadian fighters out of Nigeria, even invading Chad to secure a buffer.

"He beat them black and blue and chased them into Chad Republic. He can do it again (with Boko Haram)," Ojudu said.

After deposing Shagari he began a "war against indiscipline" to weed out corruption, armed robbery and drug trafficking.

"Immediately after its coup (the new government) closed all borders and arrested ... 475 politicians and businessmen for corruption," writes Max Siollun in his 2013 book Soldiers of Fortune. "Rooms stacked with illicit cash" were discovered in politicians' houses.

"CAN HE PULL IT OFF?"

Even those willing to overlook his autocratic past might question whether he can keep his promises. Corruption is so entrenched that dismantling it could take generations.

"People love the anti-corruption, but if they dig a bit deeper: what does it actually mean? And can he pull it off?" said Akindele, adding that it could mean turning on some of his top backers in the APC, which he is unlikely to be able to do.

Power in democratic Nigeria depends on patronage networks, and feeding them is essential if a politician wants to keep it.

Promises to restore security after a brutal five-year insurgency by Boko Haram also might be easier to make than keep, with the Islamist group demonstrating remarkable resilience.

But sources in both parties say more prosaic factors may influence voting. Buhari, a Muslim northerner, will do better in the north, where he's hugely popular. Jonathan will sweep much of the overwhelmingly Christian south and southeast -- his home oil producing Niger Delta region and areas around.

Christians in the religiously-mixed "Middle Belt" will vote Jonathan; their Muslim neighbours, Buhari.

Much will depend on whether the 50-50 split Christian-Muslim Yoruba southwest, including Nigeria' biggest city Lagos, votes for Jonathan. It did last time, but since then southwestern elites have turned against him. Buhari's party power base is now in Lagos -- last year it was seen as largely a northern party.

"Last year people were frustrated the alliance fell apart so voted for Jonathan out of protest," Ojudu said.

"That won't happen again."

(Writing by Tim Cocks; Editing by Giles Elgood)

SAI BUHARI

Buhari/osibanjo- the winning team.

Nice analysis. CHANGE

valentine day 2015 will end all this long post.

yemaldo:
SAI BUHARI

join us on the 29th of may 2015 at eagle square to witness the swearing-in of Buhari as the president of Nigeria. History will be made on that day as we bury pdp forever.
GEJ must go. BUHARI must come!

espn:
Nice analysis. CHANGE

gej jst de purge since buhari emerge.

Impartial and correct analysis of d battle ahead. I like d bit about buhari finding it a bit more difficult dan he thought to rein in corruption wen he does ascend power. But one thing he has going 4him is dt he is not corrupt so it wud b easier 4him to lay d starting blocks to tame dis monster, even if he doesn't defeat it.
D article was also spot on in predicting dt its d west dt wud determine d winner of d election and its here gej wud receive a pounding bc wt d APC alliance and strongholds in d west, I see buhari/oshinbajo sweeping Lagos
Ogun
Osun
Oyo
Ekiti(maybe narrowly)
So even if ondo votes gej,it wud b insignificant.
Change is indeed in d air.

#Team Big Cocky on point

Sai Buhari...
I am back fully...Seun how is market?

"He doesn't love money. He doesn't care about making money. This is what Nigeria needs of a leader," said Haruna Mohammed Yogara, an opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) official who voted for Buhari to represent the party in the primaries.

Buhari doesn't love money? Tell that to the birds.

We don't need any former military leader in Nigeria again

He can't do magic cus these time around it will never be military rule again where the president do have absolute power to arrest and command execution or imprisonment of any kind without the judiciary.


Fighting corruption with that his old way will never workout with the present democratic sphere soaring high expecially during this GEJ dispensation.


He should just leave GEJ to finish his second tenure so that we can test another way of leadership instead of the old way of military and quasi democracy that had existed for decades.

#GEJ Out.

#Wenger In.

If not Arsene Wenger the GEJ must continue.

menesheh:
We don't need any former military leader in Nigeria again

He can't do magic cus these time around it will never be military rule again where the president do have absolute power to arrest and command execution or imprisonment of any kind without the judiciary.


Fighting corruption with that his old way will never workout with the present democratic sphere soaring high expecially during this GEJ dispensation.


He should just leave GEJ to finish his second tenure so that we can test another way of leadership instead of the old way of military and quasi democracy that had existed for decades.

The military way is what Nigeria needs. The country is going to the dogs. Corruption, prostitution, stupid display of wealth. There is no money for rubbish anyway. Even the decadent Jonathan administration will tighten the belt. So either way it is a hard four years for Nigeria.
And Buhari should not leave Jonathan to finish destroying the country.

menesheh:
We don't need any former military leader in Nigeria again

He can't do magic cus these time around it will never be military rule again where the president do have absolute power to arrest and command execution or imprisonment of any kind without the judiciary.


Fighting corruption with that his old way will never workout with the present democratic sphere soaring high expecially during this GEJ dispensation.


He should just leave GEJ to finish his second tenure so that we can test another way of leadership instead of the old way of military and quasi democracy that had existed for decades.

Stop getting emotional.. Your Jesus on Earth is going to Kirikiri.. Not even Michael Scofield can save his àss!!

Brimmie:


Stop getting emotional.. Your Jesus on Earth is going to Kirikiri.. Not even Michael Scofield can save his àss!!

Biased and delusioned mindset

The only mantra GMB has is I will fight kworuption but in other sectors he is as daft as a dumbass.

donmalcolm21:
The only mantra GMB has is I will fight kworuption but in other sectors he is as daft as a dumbass.

The most important qualities for a leader are integrity, sincerity of purpose and a strong will power.

There are lots of economic advisers and consultants that works with a president as an economic team. What GEJ lacks are the three qualities above.

That is why many committee reports will continue to gather dusts under GEJ, never to be implemented. that is why many corruption cases will not see the end of the tunnel, that is why interest of cabals is usually placed above the interest of the masses.