aletheia:


OP. You been try. But run your model again but with Jonathan winning in Lagos, Ekiti, Oyo, and Osun states which is a more accurate reflection of the reality than Buhari winning in all the SW states.

What gain is a model based on fantasy. Lagos, Oyo, Osun are lost to PDP. Ekiti is also lost. The most concern that should be shown by APC is for Oyo State where there is always a tendency for Ibadan people to rock the proverbial boat. Yet the brand power of the Buhari/Idiagbon regime helps the general even here.
What we all agree though is that Jonathan is not of the political weight to do achieve anything outside SE and some parts of the SS.

The devaluation of the naira at this critical period further dampened the chances of GEJ even among the business elite. it will b difficult for an Northerner to vote him and leave their own likewise a Yoruba man. I foresee change and the tone of the PDP chairman begging people not to defect symbolises failure on their part. OBJ is not even for him. who will follow him to campaign this time? is it Bode Jorge or Fayose in d SW and who will follow him to the North. its a lost battle for PDP

tbaba1234:




Who is talking religion here?? PDP has failed massively in Edo.

Edo is an APC state at the moment and very powerful, it is difficult to see how PDP wins..

It will be tight but from the feelers I get, buhari edges it.

Bookmark this thread and quote me to deactivate my moniker if Buhari secures up to 25% of the votes in Edo state come Feb 2015

Ibusho:
The devaluation of the naira at this critical period further dampened the chances of GEJ even among the business elite. it will b difficult for an Northerner to vote him and leave their own likewise a Yoruba man. I foresee change and the tone of the PDP chairman begging people not to defect symbolises failure on their part. OBJ is not even for him. who will follow him to campaign this time? is it Bode Jorge or Fayose in d SW and who will follow him to the North. its a lost battle for PDP

Devaluation of naira has to do with the falling oil price and GEJ,please get your facts right.

Did obasanjo campaign for Fayose before he scored 16-0 during the last ekiti elections? abeg make pesin hear word jare

atlwireles:
Why are some so disconnected from reality? The only state Buhari might win this time around is Kwara. 2011 will repeat itself.

Mr Connected: Why would he win Kwara and lost Katsina or Kano?

Eziachi:
Mr Connected: Why would he win Kwara and lost Katsina or Kano?

I bet you did not understand the comment you quoted.. Time has come for you to see an Alzheimer specialist

chukwudi44:


GEJ would score above 40% in a core northern state like kadunna. He would also get high votes in Adamawa. There are much more Christians in the north than muslims in the se/ss

By February 15 2015 we will know between GEJ and Buhari who is in poo

So in your opinion, every one vote by their religion?
Did some of you know the full implications of this ethic and religious politics for Jonathan if those in the north carry the same sentiment?

PassingShot,you're a great thinker.

All evidences point to a Buhari landslide victory in at least 4regions.

I don't see how Jonathan will win SW.It's impossible now. Quote me.Jonathan has failed and admitted being a failure. No forgiveness for his retrogressiveness.We'll never forget the fuel prices increases and the subsidy scam he aided;the unmitigated killings in the north.
We'll vote a man who'll be courageous to provide succour.A man who gives 'a damn' about us:GMB.

Ozin:
What a prediction skewed in favour of the dictator fact is SW,NE and NC is a battle ground for votes for both PDP and APC and no party is assured of any victory until after the 14th. SS and SE is definately for GEJ and NW for Buhari. There is also no way Tinubu can defeat the federal might,Bode george,Obanikoro ,Agbaje and the majority votes from SE & SS based in Lagos

dream on.....obanikoro and bode George u say? so koro and George WL defeat tinubu and fashola abi?......I laff in mandarin....PDP will not win a state in x presidential election in sw talk less of Lagos..u beta wake up from ur sleep

Good analysis except for the below
1. Kogi state: you have the okusn, ebiras & igalas in the 3 senatorial zones. Ebira& igala will vote on religious lines while the okuns would vote on ethnic lines. Decision: Buhari 60%
2. Benue state: based on unresolved issues in PDP leading to 2 major decampees, Gemade & Samuel Ortom and with George Akume in APC from the Tiv, also rising challenges for Mark with his Idoma people, its gonna be a swing. Decision: Jonathan 55%
3. Lagos state: block vote from here are based on high intelectualism of the peole there. The state of the economy would determine their votes. Decision: buhari 70%
4. Ogun state: unresolved issues in PDP would play into APC's hands. The OBJ effect, Running Mate-Osinbajo's effect. He's from Ikene in Ogun. Decision: Buhari 70%.

APC fans are just after their party, even if their party brings a dictator they will surport, they will tell u vote for change. but I don't think GMB will bring about as any change

APC fans are getting carried away and it is incredible. Many of the South Western APC fans do not know what is happening up North because many have not stepped foot in the far North to know what politics is like there. Buhari will win many votes in the North but some key top shots in the North do not want him. They'll get their guys to vote PDP.

The North does bloc voting and emirs and other tribal leaders call the shots. Some tribal leaders up north will encourage their guys to vote Goodluck simply because of what they stand to gain from Goodluck.

Goodluck will perform better in the South West than a lot of people think.

Buhari cannot win Goodluck sorry. I pray for peace and not violence because APC are already showing signs of being bad losers. They thrive on propaganda and rumour mongering.

you are a perfectionist and that is the worst that can happen as we all yearn for change....... SAI BUHARI

aletheia:


OP. You been try. But run your model again but with Jonathan winning in Lagos, Ekiti, Oyo, and Osun states which is a more accurate reflection of the reality than Buhari winning in all the SW states.

Ok. I will try and post it here when done. But Surely I will not give Osun and Oyo to Jonathan because I'm certain he can't win there if the election is free and fair.

chukwudi44:


That was exactly what you people said before the last ekiti elections and we know how it all went

yes fayemi was decieved

scribble:


Ur father is the most foolish for birthing a didirin like u

e pain u like dat, that is to teach u a lesson that wat u dnt knw u dnt say it out, u brainless pig.

chukwudi44:


Devaluation of naira has to do with the falling oil price and GEJ,please get your facts right.

Did obasanjo campaign for Fayose before he scored 16-0 during the last ekiti elections? abeg make pesin hear word jare

I beg to disagree with you.

Just take a look at other countries who depend solely on oil to run their economy and you find out that they have not devalued their currency at all. It is our failure to have very healthy reserves from the excess income from crude oil that has caused us this poo. Look at Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and Qatar to see that they continue their life as if nothing has happened in the oil market.

OP is a learner. E no far again. Buhari is used to failure

“If PDP wins the Presidential election in a free and fair situation, we in the APC are not like what they are calling us, our leaders are responsible; we will congratulate President Jonathan. But if they use military against us and rig the election, we will not take them to court; we too will take illegal action against them because what they have done too is illegal”. Amaechi statement,,,[b][/b]


That is the Answer .....

Ozin:
What a prediction skewed in favour of the dictator fact is SW,NE and NC is a battle ground for votes for both PDP and APC and no party is assured of any victory until after the 14th. SS and SE is definately for GEJ and NW for Buhari. There is also no way Tinubu can defeat the federal might,Bode george,Obanikoro ,Agbaje and the majority votes from SE & SS based in Lagos

When you make statements like this, you do know you're in effect telling us that GEJ will rig the elections and your votes don't really count?

I have a very strong feeling elections will cease to occur in the troubled NE states skewing the total results in GEJ's favour.

Some sort of never-before-seen manipulation will happen using the insurgency in those states as an excuse, i promise you.

The PDP principalities are brainstorming on this already with their evil lawyers looking for loopholes or grey areas in the constitution to back up their acts which will lead to endless litigation and pockets of violence nationwide.

This is my prediction and it is fearful.

Let us ALL pray for peace and unity in the coming year!

kenrish2:
APC fans are just after their party, even if their party brings a dictator they will surport, they will tell u vote for change. but I don't think GMB will bring about as any change

Sir, the taste of the pudding is in the eating. You cannot tell the taste of anything until you've eaten it.

On the other hand, the masses have "eaten" fresh air abi na fresh breeze and majority of them are saying THEY HAVE HAD ENOUGH!!!

HOW CAN A POLITICAL PARTY THAT PROMISED STEADY POWER IN 1999 AND HAS FAILED WOEFULLY THUS FAR BE VOTED FOR AGAIN IN 2015??!!!

ON WHAT PREMISE??!!!

It is only fair and logical to give another political party "a chance to fail" as well.

cashkid:

e pain u like dat, that is to teach u a lesson that wat u dnt knw u dnt say it out, u brainless pig.

Look at this demonic Buhari supporter. Pls go and hug shekau. Bastardo

yemivictor:
I have a very strong feeling elections will cease to occur in the troubled NE states skewing the total results in GEJ's favour.

Some sort of never-before-seen manipulation will happen using the insurgency in those states as an excuse, i promise you.

The PDP principalities are brainstorming on this already with their evil lawyers looking for loopholes or grey areas in the constitution to back up their acts which will lead to endless litigation and pockets of violence nationwide.

This is my prediction and it is fearful.

Let us ALL pray for peace and unity in the coming year!

May they not succeed in their evil plan.

I believe it's going to be more difficult for them to rig massively this time around than in 2011.

Let's keep hope and faith with God.

naijasaints:
Jonathan cant win imo and kogi.Also he only going to get 25% in all northern state.
Jonathan has lost 2015 election and he knows.

My friend no Igbo man or woman will vote for Buhari... He can't even get more than 10,000 votes in the whole of Igboland. That's the reality on ground. Rochas being in APC doesn't mean anything. FYI, he might not get returned as governor of Imo state from the look of things.

It is a taboo for any Igbo to vote for Buhari.... And that's the plain truth

PassingShot:


A lot of things have changed since. It is you who need to factor in those changes.

the beauty of all ur biased permutations is that feb 14 is just a month plus few weeks from now.

e go clear una for eye.

Excellent predictions!! I just wish and pray that the people's General will get the opportunity to put this Country, which is already on the precipe of collapse, back on her foot.

Go GMD!!

fx45:

My friend no Igbo man or woman will vote for Buhari... He can't even get more than 10,000 votes in the whole of Igboland. That's the reality on ground. Rochas being in APC doesn't mean anything. FYI, he might not get returned as governor of Imo state from the look of things.

It is a taboo for any Igbo to vote for Buhari.... And that's the plain truth

Fortunately the people's General doesn't need foolish igbo votes. In fact any Igbo that votes for GEJ deserves to have a big stone tied around his rubbish neck and thrown into the deep ocean. Look around in all the federal roads in the SE and all of them in miserable conditions. Yet you'll rather we vote for Jonathan again. That'll be the height of foolishness to do that after all these disregard by his administration.

[quote author=yemivictor post=29183492]

Sir, the taste of the pudding is in the eating. You cannot tell the taste of anything until you've eaten it.

On the other hand, the masses have eaten "fresh air" abi na "fresh breeze" and majority of them are saying THEY HAVE HAD ENOUGH!!!

HOW CAN A POLITICAL PARTY THAT PROMISED STEADY POWER IN 1999 AND HAS FAILED WOEFULLY THUS FAR BE VOTED FOR AGAIN IN 2015??!!! ON WHAT PREMISE??!!!

It is only fair and logical to give another political party "a chance to fail" as well.


u made a strong logical point which I agree with because voting jona is lyk wastn another 4 years, but wat niaja need at this point is a young fresh leader not another past president, the past leaders contributed in the problems we are facing now, yet they still want power, when buhari was President wat did he do, when dis APC PDP saga started I taught it will lead to sometin better but at the end they choose a past failure as their candidate. change is good because its brings about new ideas an opportunities but wen making changes its sometimes create more problems. wen buhari loss d last election he vowed to cause problems so do u think this kind of leader is wat naija need at this point

PassingShot:


No need to hyperventilate. Just point out which states you think Buhari cannot win in any of the 22 states with reasons.

haba...you know within your heart that GMB can't win ondo and ekiti

Johnpaul88:
Fortunately the people's General doesn't need foolish igbo votes. In fact any Igbo that votes for GEJ deserves to have a big stone tied around his rubbish neck and thrown into the deep ocean. Look around in all the federal roads in the SE and all of them in miserable conditions. Yet you'll rather we vote for Jonathan again. That'll be the height of foolishness to do that after all these disregard by his administration.

Crap! Foolish Igbo votes or no foolish Igbo votes, Ur Fulani Bokoharam slavemaster will still lose again... A few more youth corpers(including Ur elder brother serving in the north) will be slaughtered as usual and life will continue...

#BuhariIsUnelectable

PassingShot:


Ok. I will try and post it here when done. But Surely I will not give Osun and Oyo to Jonathan because I'm certain he can't win there if the election is free and fair.

Sorry, I meant Ondo not Osun...a slip.