The All Progressive Alliance (APC) has been very upbeat about its chances to win the 2015 elections scheduled for next month. The result of a fusion of two main parties and strong factions of some others, it is indeed the first time in Nigeria’s history that different political parties have merged successfully. It was able to take away five state governors from the ruling People’s Democratic Party.
The party has in its kitty some of the most accomplished media practitioners: using both the new media and the traditional media, it initially successfully put the ruling party on the defensive. So much so that in spite of all the colourful adverts of TAN, the APC rather successfully overshadowed all the considerable achievements of Dr Goodluck Jonathan, presenting him as a do-nothing president
Indeed most development projects of President Goodluck Jonathan hardly get any mention in the media. The massive rail line rehabilitation – the first in over 30 years- has been ignored. The construction of the modern standard gauge rail line from Kaduna to Abuja, which is over 80% completed, is not even recognised.
Few are aware of the massive power transmission lines being constructed from north to south, a very vital component of the electricity industry and which with ongoing power generation projects should transform the power provision capacity to unprecedented levels.Even the efforts by security agencies to cope with the large scale and widespread insurgency of Boko Haram and the so-called Fulani herdsmen which have wreaked havoc across the country are unrecognised with the drumbeat being only about the military’s admittedly considerable failings.
One key demand of the Boko Haram has been the transfer of “political power” back to the north. In this context too, President Jonathan seemed to have lost the argument: He has been painted into a corner as being incapable of handling the security challenges of Nigeria.
In terms of public opinion therefore, General Muhammadu Buhari initially seemed to be miles ahead of President Goodluck Jonathan, a situation which has not changed substantially. No wonder the APC got a little cocky, affording itself the luxury of removing Dele Alake, the smooth and accomplished media operator and Tinubu man and replacing him with Garba Shehu,the Alhaji Abubakar Atiku loyalist in the first sign of infighting in the Buhari camp.
Secondly, in absolute terms, the “north” has more than half of the registered voters in Nigeria. Of the 40 million votes in the North, 18 million voters reside in the north western region of Nigeria. Except for Kaduna and Kebbi state, all the other states namelyJigawa, Kano,Katsina, Zamfara and Sokoto are exclusively Hausa and Fulani,predominantly Muslims, who believe that President Jonathan should not have contested the 2011 elections in the first place. It was the turn of the North and Jonathan, according to them, breached the gentleman’s agreement on zoning by contesting and winning. To show their anger then, an orgy of violence was unleashed in the country after the 2011 elections. Boko Haram’s activities spiked and large territories of Borno and Yobe have since been taken over.
In the North East, with its 10 million votes, only Taraba and Adamawa states voted massively for President Jonathan in 2011 who scored only 16, 18 and 18 per cent in Bauchi, Yobe and Borno states respectively.
United Muslim North for Buhari
The Hausa and Fulani quest to take over power cuts across all parts of the North. Facebook comments, speeches by political and religious leaders of the “North” show that they are more determined than before to wrest power from Jonathan. With the massive dislocation of Christians from Yobe and Borno, it may well be assumed by the APC that President Jonathan would get less.
The support for President Jonathan was almost universal in the South-South in 2011. Now there are obvious cracks with Rivers state governor and head of the Buhari campaign an obvious Achilles heel.
Ambivalent South West
Obasanjo’s stance of 2011 has changed. He is now vigorous in campaigning against the PDP and while his electoral value remains dubious he adds to the bad atmospherics against Jonathan. Having lost out in the VP sweepstakes, Bola Tinubu is noticeably unenthusiastic about the Buhari campaign, adding to an air of ambivalence in the South West.There seems to be a new thought in the north now which may change all the calculations: Buhari’s health. The alleged collapse of Buhari in Calabarand Owerri and the physical exhaustion that he is exhibiting is a mounting concern for political leaders of the north. What if Yar adua’s fate befalls Buhari? Where would that place the north?
Besides some northern PDP leaders fear the fate of the AD Governors under Obasanjo. They agreed to work for their kinsman, President Obasanjo of the PDP and got swept out of power to their chagrin after the momentum that they helped to generate. With Presidential election coming first, a victory for Buhari may actually obliterate the PDP from most of the northern states.
Such are the changing dynamics and cold calculations that those who are hoping to “smoke” (a la Ango Abdullahi and Murtala Nyako) Jonathan out of office will soon discover as we inch closer to elections that they are still living in cloud cuckooland.

Story that touches the heart..


Sai Buhari joor!