Brookings, the World’s most
influential think-tank based in the
United States, have projected a
President Jonathan victory over the
opposition candidate’s General Buhari
in the 2015 Elections which it
suggests would be keenly contested.

The analysis, context and rationale of
the think-tank’s projections is
contained in the Brookings
publication titled: Foresight Africa –
Top Priorities for the continent
(January 2015).

“Though the election is expected to be
very competitive, the odds still favor
President Jonathan.’

According to Brookings, the All
Progressives Congress (APC) is a
fragile anti-jonathan establishment
with a sole purpose to return power
to the north.

“The party is, however, a fragile one
that seems united only in its quest to
wrest the presidency from Jonathan or
to have power “returned” to the
north”

“The APC gets much of its strength
from tap- ping into anti-Jonathan
sentiments in the Muslim north and
grievances among the Yoruba who feel
that the Jonathan administration has
ignored them in key political
appointments.”

The Report also indicated that the
APC’s strategy is hinged on a
combination of popular votes from
the North West, North East and “the
battleground SouthWest” but also
hinted at the possibility of Bola Ahmed
Tinubu not delivering the region
contrary to speculations.

“What remains to be seen, however, is
whether Bola Tinubu—a former
governor of Lagos State who played a
pivotal role in the formation of the
APC and is considered to be the
party’s strongest mobi- lizer in the
southwest—will be very enthusias- tic
in delivering the battleground
southwest to the APC during the
elections.”

“Tinubu indicated his interest in being
the party’s vice presidential candidate
but being a Muslim like Buhari, the
party’s strategists felt that a Muslim-
Muslim ticket might offend Christians
and cement the PDP’s labeling of the
APC as an Islamic party.”

On President Jonathan’s performance:
“despite Boko Haram—the country is
thriving: The economy continues to
grow and—with the re- basing of its
GDP—became the largest econo- my
in Africa and the 26th largest in the
world. Jonathan’s supporters also
point to his success in containing the
Ebola virus, which earned him
commendations from countries and
institutions around the world.”

The Brookings Report also identified
factors such as incumbency and
numerical control of States where PDP
has 21 States and APC only 14 as
giving PDP an edge.

“The greatest strength of the ruling
PDP is its “power of incumbency,” and
all the institutional support that goes
with it. Not only does it have federal
resources to use as patronage, it also
controls key institutions”

The report advised that all efforts
should be deployed to ensure a free,
fair and transparent elections and to
avoid a meltdown as post-election
violence seems very likely.

“Post-election violence is therefore
likely in the north if the APC loses
while renewed militancy in the restive
Niger Delta is likely if Jonathan does.”
the report noted.

See January edition of Brookings (www.brookings.edu)

www.reubenabati.com.ng/2015-01-18-US-top-think-tank-Brookings-project-Jonathan-win-say-APC-is-a-fragile-anti-Jonathan-setup.html#

OK .....but how will dis stop me from voting the peoples general
.
.
.
.

.
sai buhari

JONATHAN IS THE MAN OF THE PEOPLE.

Did I see rubenabati.com? They goof again, an institution in america thinks Tinubu can not deliver Southwest without considering Obasanjo, without considering imposition of candidates in the PDP, without considering that Ameachi, Sylva, Okorocha and Wamakko are now in the APC is being posted as analysis of victory for PDP? I shake my head at the desperation of the abati's of this world.
Anyway, it is Jideofor Adibe's opinion on the matter.

Wot more can i say?GEJ forever!

80% correct. The remaining 20% is the incorrect projection of the Southwest specialised voting character and the analysis of the after election reactions of the North and the Southsouth. Welldone!

This report is 100% true.

I think this Fayose's Add is better this way. GEJ ain't smiling over anybody's death.

GEJ till 2019.

Poor Reuben Abati. Desperate for good news, I guess. #fail

#change
#GMB
#APC

I'm watching as events unfold.

What does Brookings know about Nigerian politics. They have been known to have falsely predicted American presidential elections on numerous occassions as well.

PDP propaganda machine is really working perfectly against Buhari's chances of winning in a free and fair election in Nigeria.

Buhari is finding it difficult to convince the electorates to vote for him, he is spending more time defending himself rather be fit to jog round the stadium or asking Nigerians to go search for his certificates from America and India war colleges

Brookings saying what we already know here, GEJ coasting to victory.

GEJ beating the hell outta Buhari since 2011.

ReubenAbati.com. And there is no direct link to the said article from Brookings in the write up. The link given by the op takes us to the home page of brookings with no trace whatsoever of the said publication from reubenAbati.com!

This one na real abracadabra.

Even if such exists, I bet it might have been published long before the APC primaries. The dynamics of the whole plot has indeed #Changed!!

Reuben, I hope you invested some of that money. The lean days are at hand!

This topic has been dealt with,previously. The author is one JIDEOFOR ADIBE of Nassarawa university. That the publication is in a Brookings Institute Journal does not make it their research. It is purely the writer's imagination on paper.

US top think tank you say?.

Here is a link to the full think tank report in all its glory for anyone who has not read it directly : http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Research/Files/Reports/2015/01/foresight%20africa/nigeria%20elections%20adibe.pdf

Why, that report was written by none other than JideOfor Adibe( Senior Lecturer, Nasarawa State University). Same fella who with top think hat on put a very positive spin on Alamieyeseighas pardon.

"There is, in my opinion, at least one justifiable ground for pardoning Alamieyeseigha: while his corruption – alleged and confessed- in office is condemnable, the way he was removed from office smacked of impunity and vendetta – something that has often turned the fight against corruption in this country into a charade. You cannot rig the legal processes to achieve a desired outcome – even if you caught the thief with his fingers in the cookie jar. ".

see more details from this source : http://dailypost.ng/2013/03/22/jideofor-adibe-alamieyeseighas-pardon-would-you-have-acted-differently/

Then judge for yourself how credible that Think tank report is!.

GEJ till Boko Horam stop bombing

Source?: Rueben Abati

Need I say more?

next!

omenka:
ReubenAbati.com. And there is no direct link to the said article from Brookings in the write up. The link given by the op takes us to the home page of brookings with no trace whatsoever of the said publication from reubenAbati.com!

This one na real abracadabra.

Even if such exists, I bet it might have been published long before the APC primaries. The dynamics of the whole plot has indeed #Changed!!

Reuben, I hope you invested some of that money. The lean days are at hand!

It is the January publication of Brookings.... It is usually in PDF (Journal form) and doesn't have a live link yet.... Abiati read from it and extracted the above article. You can search for and download the PDF file...

Without sentiments, I think what the Brookings institute article says is correct. The north just want power back. And some aggrieved south-westerners want power taken away from GEJ because he is a MINORITY who neglected them whilst making key appointments.

GMB is never an option. He is old and frail, and obviously has little more years to spend on earth. He should be resting like Shagari, Ekwueme, Babaginda and the rest of them. Why is he wanting power by all means?

It is clear that this same BUHARI who claims he wants to fight corruption is suffering from the CORRUPTION of POWER.

GEJ is doing fairly despite the insurgency and its effect on the country's administration. If THEY can ask Boko Haram to cease operation, Nigeria may be better.

True, we want another leader. But not GMB. He is a remedy that is more harmful than the disease we are suffering....