kITATITA:
Soludo's article scares me. The future is really bleak and no one is in charge of governance.

The truth is bitter. Scary article.

At last, somebody is thinking. I've said it severally, Nigeria will not turn to El Dorado overnight whether PDP continues or APC takes over. Where do they want to get the money from and how do they intend to deliver on their bogus promises? It's very unfortunate that most Nigerians are easily swindled by the same people always.

redsquare:
At last, somebody is thinking. I've said it severally, Nigeria will not turn to El Dorado overnight whether PDP continues or APC takes over. Where do they want to get the money from and how do they intend to deliver on their bogus promises? It's very unfortunate that most Nigerians are easily swindled by the same people always.

PDP brought us to this point. APC may not take us to El Dorado but for want of a better alternative, APC is it for me. Can anyone perform worse than this government? Absolutely nothing to show for period of high oil prices than what other governments will do in a depressed economy! Corruption has embedded itself in governance! Why didn't the naira appreciate between 2010 and 2015? Why? A change of government is a better option. This is not a case of the devil you know, it's a case of slaves seeking freedom and launching into the unknown. We know APC by their actions in most of the states they control.

fitzmayowa:
GBAM!!! All we've just been hearing is Tranformation Agenda, forward ever and Change! Change!! Change!!!...

None of our political parties said anything about how they intend to achieve their manifesto, all we've be hearing are promises upon promises...

They just come and give us the false hope they give to us every 4years and we see people shouting Sai Buhari and GEJ till 2019, without asking questions like the one soludo asked...May God save us

that is Nigerian mentality

Wow what a thought provoking write up, vintage Soludo.
Kudos.

saxywale:

The truth is bitter. Scary article.

See link for my earlier post on te economy
https://www.nairaland.com/2065085/honestly-see-hope-nigerian-economy

Wow! What a brilliant and intelligent piece of write up that is, very provocative and brutal. How did we find ourselves in this mess? Tougher and scary times ahead be it either GEJ or GMB.

Why can't we have people like Soludo and the likes in these so called 'major' political parties vying for the post of the President in this country?

Honestly we still have a long way to go.

Thank you Soludo for a wake up call

Let's be frank

GEJ has failed in the core reason why God enthroned him

What is that core reason.? True federalism


Until Nigeria is restructured, our potential will not manifest.


Let's look at the relationship between fiscal federalism and job creation/economic development

---

If we had insisted that each state retained 50% of the mineral royalties and taxes, today our States, LGAs and private sector would have been the vanguard of job creation/economic development.

---

Let's use 3 states as case study

Ondo(Bauxite), Enugu(Coal) and Kogi(Iron ore)

Imagine the jobs that would have been created if these states had been empowered by law to control 50% of these resources.

Imagine the industries that would have been established and the economic development that would have taken place in these states.

But No says the far North to true federalism

---

Soludo is a brilliant economist

But

OBJ is a disgrace to God and man

Why

He was the one who should have entrenched TRUE FEDERALISM unfortunately he went there and failed like King Saul due to love for riches rather than God.

---

I know President Jonathan is reading our comments as a guest

Mr. President Jonathan you will end up being a failure if you fail to implement True Federalism

All other things like Train rehabilitation, fertilizer e wallet etc are secondary

---

President Jonathan on True Federalism we stand

Neither fail we Igbos nor the Nigerdeltans.

---

Thank you Soludo

Thank you Nairalanders

Thank you President Jonathan

Thank you my parents for my education

Thank you God.

Remain blessed.

[b]

kayce911:

Earlier this month, I had a dinner with a group of friends (14 of us) and we were chit-chatting about Nigeria. One of us, an associate of President Jonathan veered off to repeat a propaganda mantra that Jonathan had outperformed his predecessors. He also reminded us that Jonathan re-based the GDP and that Nigeria is now the biggest economy in Africa; etc.  
It was fun listening to the response by others. In sum, the group agreed that the President had ‘outperformed’ his predecessors except that it is in reverse order.  

First, my friend was educated that re-basing the GDP is no achievement: it is a routine statistical exercise, and depending on the base year that you choose, you get a different GDP figure.  Re-basing the GDP has nothing to do with government policy. Besides, as naira-dollar exchange rate continues to depreciate, the GDP in current dollars will also shrink considerably soon.

We were reminded of Jonathan’s agricultural ‘revolution’. But someone cut in and noted that for all the propaganda, the growth rate of the agricultural sector in the last five years still remains far below the performance under Obasanjo.

One of us reminded him that no other president had presided over the slaughter of about 15,000 people by insurgents in a peacetime;

no other president earned up to 50% of the amount of resources the current government earned from oil and yet with very little outcomes;

no other president had the rate of borrowing;

none had significant forex earnings and yet did not add one penny to foreign reserves but losing international reserves at a time of boom;

no other president had a depreciating exchange rate at a time of export boom;

at no time in Nigeria’s history has poverty reached 71% (even under Abacha, it was 67 -70%);

and under no other president did unemployment reach 24%.

Surely, these are unprecedented records and he surely ‘outperformed’ his predecessors!  What a satire!

[/b]

"
My advice to President Jonathan and his handlers is to stop wasting their time trying to campaign on his job record. Those who have decided to vote for him will not do so because he has taken Nigeria to the moon. His record on the economy is a clear ‘F’ grade."

My take-away:

"If the experience under Shagari could be excused as an unexpected shock, what Nigeria is going through now is a consequence of our deliberate wrong choices. We have always known that the unprecedented oil boom (in both price and quantity—despite oil theft) of the last six years is temporary but the government chose to treat it as a permanent shock. The parallels with the Shagari regime are troubling.

First, at the time of oil boom, Nigeria again went on a consumption spree such that the budgets of the last five years can best be described as ‘consumption budgets’, with new borrowing by the federal government exceeding the actual expenditure on critical infrastructure. Second, not one penny was added to the stock of foreign reserves at a period Nigeria earned hundreds of billions from oil. For comparisons, President Obasanjo met about $5 billion in foreign reserves, and the average monthly oil price for the 72 months he was in office was $38, and yet he left $43 billion in foreign reserves after paying $12 billion to write-off Nigeria’s external debt. In the last five years, the average monthly oil price has been over $100, and the quantity also higher but our foreign reserves have been declining and exchange rate depreciating".

took the pains to read this lengthy article on SR. oh my! We really are on the brink of collapse if something is not done now. How some people still jonathan is the best thing to ever happen after sliced bread is beyond me. Vote wit your heads people. SAVE NIGERIA!!

The GEJ till 2019 and Sai Buhari crew should read this.

Another one:

In sum, the mismanagement of our economy has brought us once more to the brink. Government officials rely on the artificial construct of debt to GDP ratio to tell us we can borrow as much as we want. That is nonsense, especially for an economy with a mono but highly volatile source of revenue and forex earnings. The chicken will soon come home to roost. Today, the combined domestic and external debt of the Federal Government is in excess of $40 billion.

Add to this the fact that abandoned capital projects littered all over the country amount to over $50 billion. No word yet on other huge contingent liabilities. If oil prices continue to fall, I bet that Nigeria will soon have a heavy debt burden even with low debt to GDP ratio. Furthermore, given the current and capital account regime, it is evident that Nigeria does not have enough foreign reserves to adequately cover for imports plus short term liabilities. In essence, we are approaching the classic of what the Shagari government faced, and no wonder the hasty introduction of ‘austerity measures’ again.

Fourth, poverty incidence and unemployment are also simultaneously at all-time high levels. According to the NBS, poverty incidence grew to 69% in 2010 and projected to be 71% in 2011, with unemployment at 24%. This is the worst record in Nigeria’s history, and the paradox is that this happened during the unprecedented oil boom.

Reading this almost brought tears to my eyes:

"In sum, the group agreed that the President had ‘outperformed’ his predecessors except that it is in reverse order. First, my friend was educated that re-basing the GDP is no achievement: it is a routine statistical exercise, and depending on the base year that you choose, you get a different GDP figure. Re-basing the GDP has nothing to do with government policy. Besides, as naira-dollar exchange rate continues to depreciate, the GDP in current dollars will also shrink considerably soon.

We were reminded of Jonathan’s agricultural ‘revolution’. But someone cut in and noted that for all the propaganda, the growth rate of the agricultural sector in the last five years still remains far below the performance under Obasanjo. One of us reminded him that no other president had presided over the slaughter of about 15,000 people by insurgents in a peacetime; no other president earned up to 50% of the amount of resources the current government earned from oil and yet with very little outcomes; no other president had the rate of borrowing; none had significant forex earnings and yet did not add one penny to foreign reserves but losing international reserves at a time of boom; no other president had a depreciating exchange rate at a time of export boom; at no time in Nigeria’s history has poverty reached 71% (even under Abacha, it was 67 -70%); and under no other president did unemployment reach 24%. Surely, these are unprecedented records and he surely ‘outperformed’ his predecessors! What a satire!" - Prof Soludo

This is brilliant!!!

"I can clearly see why reasonable people are worried. Everywhere else in the world, government performance on the economy is measured by some outcome variables such as: income (GDP growth rate), stability of prices (inflation and exchange rate), unemployment rate, poverty rate, etc. On all these scores, this government has performed worse than its immediate predecessor— Obasanjo regime. If we appropriately adjust for oil income and debt, then this government is the worst in our history on the economy. All statistics are from the National Bureau of Statistics". - Prof. Soludo

The Prof is obviously smart enough not to endorse any candidate so as not to divert attention from the real issues. It's evidently obvious from the article that GEJ has failed on all measurable indicators.

Question is, why bring back a failure to only hope for a better future?

And a positive for IBB too:


Not many Nigerians appreciate that given the near bankrupt state of Nigeria’s finances and requirements for debt resolution under the Paris Club, the country had little choice but to undertake the painful structural adjustment programme (SAP). I want to state for the record that the foundation for the current market economy we operate in Nigeria was laid by that regime (liberalization of markets including market determined exchange rate, private sector-led economy including licensing of private banks and insurance, de-regulation, privatization of public enterprises under TCPC, etc). Just abolishing the import licensing regime was a fundamental policy revolution. Despite the criticisms, these policy thrusts have remained the pillars of our deepening market economy, and the economy recovered from almost negative growth rate to average 5.5% during the regime and poverty incidence at 42% in 1992.

Soludo for president!!

If Buhari becomes the next president,I expect him to make Soludo a member of his cabinet. He is damn too intelligent and a rare breed that must not be wasted.

Brilliant article I must admit.

Let them read this especially those apologist called APC supporters. Make your campaign promises based on naira and kobo not on empty promises just because you want to occupy an office. Take lessens from Papa Awolowo the best President Nigeria never had.

kayce911:
need to preface this article with a few clarifications. I have taken a long sabbatical leave from partisan politics, and it is real fun watching the drama from the balcony.  Having had my own share of public service (I do not need a job from government), I now devote my time and energy in pursuit of other passions, especially abroad. A few days ago, I read an article in Thisday entitled “Where is Charles Soludo?”, and my answer is that I am still there, only that I have been too busy with extensive international travels to participate in or comment on our national politics and economy. But I occasionally follow events at home. Since the survival and prosperity of Nigeria are at stake, the least some of us (albeit, non-partisan) must do is to engage in public debate. As the elections approach, I owe a duty to share some of my concerns.
In September 2010, I wrote a piece entitled “2011 Elections: Let the Real Debate Begin” and published by Thisday. I understand the Federal Executive Council discussed it, and the Minister of Information rained personal attacks on me during the press briefing. I noted more than six newspaper editorials in support of the issues we raised. Beside other issues we raised, our main thesis was that the macro economy was dangerously adrift, with little self-insurance mechanisms (and a prediction that if oil prices fell below $40, many state governments would not be able to pay salaries). I gave a subtle hint at easy money and exchange rate depreciations because I did not want to panic the market with a strong statement. Sadly, on the eve of the next elections, literally everything we hinted at has happened.  Part of my motivation for this article is that five years after, the real debate is still not happening.
The presidential election next month will be won by either Buhari or Jonathan. For either, it is likely to be a pyrrhic victory. None of them will be able to deliver on the fantastic promises being made on the economy, and if oil prices remain below $60, I see very difficult months ahead, with possible heady collisions with labour, civil society, and indeed the citizenry. To be sure, the presidential election will not be decided by the quality of ‘issues’ or promises canvassed by the candidates. The debates won’t also change much (except if there is a major gaffe by either candidate like Tofa did in the debate with Abiola). My take is that more than 95% of the likely voters have pretty much made up their minds based largely on other considerations. A few of us remain undecided. During my brief visit to Nigeria, I watched some of the campaign rallies on television. The tragedy of the current electioneering campaigns is that both parties are missing the golden opportunity to sensitize the citizenry about the enormous challenges ahead and hence mobilize them for the inevitable sacrifices they would be called upon to make soon. Each is promising an El-Dorado.
Let me admit that the two main parties talk around the major development challenges—corruption, insecurity, economy (unemployment/poverty, power, infrastructure, etc) health, education, etc. However, it is my considered view that none of them has any credible agenda to deal with the issues, especially within the context of the evolving global economy and Nigeria’s broken public finance. The UK Conservative Party’s manifesto for the last election proudly announced that all its programmes were fully costed and were therefore implementable. Neither APC nor PDP can make a similar claim.  A plan without the dollar or Naira signs to it is nothing but a wish-list. They are not telling us how much each of their promises will cost and where they will get the money. None talks about the broken or near bankrupt public finance and the strategy to fix it.
In response to the question of where the money will come from, I heard one of the politicians say that the problem of Nigeria was not money but the management of resources. This is half-truth. The problem is both. No matter how efficient a father (with a monthly salary of N50,000) is at managing the family resources, I cannot see how he could deliver on a promise to buy a brand new Peugeot 406 for each of his three children in a year.  Even with all the loopholes and waste closed, with increased efficiency per dollar spent, there is still a binding budget constraint. To deliver an efficient national transport infrastructure alone will still cost tens of billions of dollars per annum even by corruption-free, cost-effective means.  Did I hear that APC promises a welfare system that will pay between N5,000 and N10,000 per month to the poorest 25 million Nigerians?  Just this programme alone will cost between N1.5 and N3 trillion per annum. Add to this the cost of free primary education plus free meal (to be funded by the federal budget or would it force non-APC state governments to implement the same?), plus some millions of public housing, etc.
I have tried to cost some of the promises by both the APC and the PDP, given alternative scenarios for public finance and the numbers don’t add up.  Nigerians would be glad to know how both parties would fund their programmes.  Do they intend to accentuate the huge public debt, or raise taxes on the soon to-be-beleaguered private businesses, or massively devalue the naira to rake in baskets of naira from the dwindling oil revenue, or embark on huge fiscal retrenchment with the sack of labour and abandonment of projects, and which areas of waste do they intend to close and how much do they estimate to rake in from them, etc?  I remember that Chief Obafemi Awolowo was asked similar questions in 1978 and 1979 about his promises of free education and free medical services. Even as a teenager, I was impressed by how he reeled out  figures about the amounts he would save from various ‘waste’ including the tea/coffee served in government offices. The point is that at least he did his homework and had his numbers and I give credit to his team. Some 36 years later, the quality of political debate and discourse seems to border on the pedestrian. From the quality of its team, I did not expect much from the current government, but I must confess that I expected APC as a party aspiring to take over from PDP to come up with a knock-out punch. Evidently, from what we have read from the various versions of its manifesto as well as the depth of promises being made, it does not seem that it has a better offer.

richardomoko:
Let them read this especially those apologist called APC supporters. Make your campaign promises based on naira and kobo not on empty promises just because you want to occupy an office. Take lessens from Papa Awolowo the best President Nigeria never had.

Please don't turn this into something else. The Prof has more bad news for Jonathan than APC. so what do you want to make out of your journey?

HNosegbe:


This is the kind of silly, reductionist thinking that dominates the political space in this country - the major reason why we're so backward.

Did you even ATTEMPT to read let alone digest the article?

i don't he read it.... he's busy fighting for ftc.

Life is in cycles, but some cycles are quite short, Goodluck is a sort of Shagari and that means he will win the next elections but the aftermath is not looking sexy. We doubt if he can get rid of the lying spirits around him. In the end each one to his own house; may God have mercy on us.

kayce911:
Soludo for president!!

He will get my vote at such a time.

Nice article but I have a feeling Soludo is tending towards a Buhari presidency,than a GEJ presidency. In as much as GEJ may not be the best,I can't seem to think of what Buhari can offer cos like Soludo opined,the APC haven't told us what they would do better if elected(realistically).

What a write up!

Soludo remains one of the best mind in Nigeria.

Brilliant article. Brilliant. This article would separate the school goers from the learned. The school goers who like to shout and make empty noise wouldn't care about the content, they wouldn't even read past the first paragraph. If they managed to read past the first paragraph, they would be immediately turned off by the figures. These are the ones Prof talked about, the unemployable graduates. they have what we call 'lazy brain syndrome '. Nigerians, think!

kmariko:
The greatest football game is usually the one you played in. Luckily history is not one of the strengths of the citizenry..so we can easily paint obasanjo as the Messiah of our Country.

Lastly, the election is over Peter Obi won and Obiano is doing a fine job - let it go.

True that.

Even with that one cannot deny that the points raised in the article are valid enough. Both parties have yet to spell out how they intend to achieve the grand promises they make; none has been convincing so far.

I think, given the challenges we face as a nation and the penchant for the Nigerian spirit to make alarming choices, it is safe to say that in the long run we are all screwed.