My Prediction Of March,28 2015 Presidential Election - Politics - Nairaland
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| My Prediction Of March,28 2015 Presidential Election by Geostatistical(m): 11:07am On Feb 06, 2015 |
This is my prediction of 2015 presidential election based on the ffg assumptions GEJ lost 40% of his 2011 voters to GMB ( This is arguable but we can all attest to it) ; GMB lost 10% of his 2011 voters to GEJ ( This is fair if GMB lost any atall) ; and GMB lost 5% of his 2011 voters to BH massacre and displacement (This is probably exaggerated) 3 Likes
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| Re: My Prediction Of March,28 2015 Presidential Election by Nobody: 11:19am On Feb 06, 2015 |
ftc.... kini big deal |
| Re: My Prediction Of March,28 2015 Presidential Election by Nobody: 11:28am On Feb 06, 2015 |
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| Re: My Prediction Of March,28 2015 Presidential Election by dkronicle(m): 11:28am On Feb 06, 2015 |
hahaha |
| Re: My Prediction Of March,28 2015 Presidential Election by Nobody: 11:36am On Feb 06, 2015 |
Too many useless predictions 1 Like |
| Re: My Prediction Of March,28 2015 Presidential Election by Eggcelent(m): 11:39am On Feb 06, 2015 |
hmmm. a largely fair analysis. however, GEJ won't lose up to 40% of his 2011 supporters solely to Buhari. I'll say about 25% of those who voted for him in 2011 (especially in South West) will vote for GMB now, while 15% of same won't be voting. On the other hand, you didn't factor first time voters into your projection. Their choices may prove significant. 1 Like |
| Re: My Prediction Of March,28 2015 Presidential Election by Geostatistical(m): 11:39am On Feb 06, 2015 |
Instead of saying "useless" ,y not share ur opinion. This is not terrestrial prediction, It based on data projection n assumption Yungwizzzy: 5 Likes |
| Re: My Prediction Of March,28 2015 Presidential Election by Geostatistical(m): 11:42am On Feb 06, 2015 |
You maybe right! I did add 5% as first timers or non-2011 voters Eggcelent: |
| Re: My Prediction Of March,28 2015 Presidential Election by Adminisher: 11:53am On Feb 06, 2015 |
This is very stupid. Nigerian s are just too shallow and weak minded. Do you even believe the 2011 election results?. That PDP actually scored the votes recorded for them in Rivers State and many other places?. If you believe it you will never be anything because you don't have ability for frank discrimination. Also stop all these this man will take some of the votes from this man. There is CHANGE in the air and it is a REVOLUTION. It is not going to follow what you used to know in the past. I talk to grassroots people everyday in most states in the south and it is like 70:30 Buhari for now. There is some surprise for APC in Lagos but they will take all Ondo and Ekiti. SDP might win one governorship. Please do t base anything on the 2011 elections the results were fake and in any case the dynamics has altered drastically. There is no PDP machinery as such anymore at the presidential elections, religion and fear of Tue north will drive votes for Jonathan..PDP governors in the north will not help him. Hatred for corruption and insecurity will drive votes for Buhari in the SW. Tribalism and religion will give him.large votes in the North. Intra ethnic divisions will help APC in Delta, Rivers and Akwa Ibom making him win or get more than 25% in those states. 3 Likes |
| Re: My Prediction Of March,28 2015 Presidential Election by Geostatistical(m): 11:58am On Feb 06, 2015 |
Bro....U don't have say "Silly" ...Share your opinion n lets learn from each other. Either We believe 2011 results or not, GEJ has almost ended his term. For me, 70:30 is not realistic Adminisher: 1 Like |
| Re: My Prediction Of March,28 2015 Presidential Election by Adminisher: 12:06pm On Feb 06, 2015 |
Geostatistical: I just don't like the way everybody accepts the information official agencies throw at them. It is un emancipative. Ameachi ha been boasting that he knows how much and what they did to give Jonathan 2 million votes in 2011. Same issue in the SW where some APC chieftains now admit that they actually did a deal with Jonathan on votes. Those structures have crumbled completely as the monolithic PDP structure as well which no longer exists. 3 Likes |
| Re: My Prediction Of March,28 2015 Presidential Election by Eggcelent(m): 12:57pm On Feb 06, 2015 |
Adminisher. Some intelligent analysis you have here. However, I could see what the OP is saying in that whatever projections one make should be based on what has been on ground. No doubt, results of the 2011 elections were compromised in the SS & SE. While, APC is significantly stronger in Rivers & Edo States, nothing has changed in the remaining 9 states to significantly alter outcome of the election. Therefore, I think SW (and to some extent NC) remains the key area. That 3 states in the NE may not be involved could just swing the overall outcome in favour of the incumbent. 1 Like |
| Re: My Prediction Of March,28 2015 Presidential Election by jamace(m): 1:32pm On Feb 06, 2015 |
GEJ already won the election in the spirit realm: https://www.nairaland.com/2122495/oracle-predicts-victory-jonathanin-28 Vote GEJ. 1 Like |
| Re: My Prediction Of March,28 2015 Presidential Election by Geostatistical(m): 1:44pm On Feb 06, 2015 |
Different 'spirit', different prediction...this is pure data analysis jamace: 1 Like |
| Re: My Prediction Of March,28 2015 Presidential Election by jamace(m): 2:14pm On Feb 06, 2015 |
Geostatistical:Are you geostatistically questioning the gods?  1 Like |
| Re: My Prediction Of March,28 2015 Presidential Election by Geostatistical(m): 2:42pm On Feb 06, 2015 |
jamace: |
| Re: My Prediction Of March,28 2015 Presidential Election by Valentinooo: 2:49pm On Feb 06, 2015 |
I don't know why these Jonathanians keep finding it hard to believe that GEJ will lose when their Oga already knows he has lost it. GEJ himself knows what the outcome will look like, No wonder his desperation in getting the election shifted. 1 Like |
| Re: My Prediction Of March,28 2015 Presidential Election by bakila: 2:52pm On Feb 06, 2015 |
Adminisher: He said 2011 courtesy INEC. If you read Keyamo's position you will understand that Buhari lost last time because of very little presence in the south. Jonathan has burnt the political bridges that brought him result of 2011 including all the rigging thumbs, which makes op's permutations from 2011 conservatively realistic. 1 Like |
| Re: My Prediction Of March,28 2015 Presidential Election by 100Cents: 3:06pm On Feb 06, 2015 |
GOODLUCK will still win him.. Nah his destiny be that.. It is called AKARAKA |
| Re: My Prediction Of March,28 2015 Presidential Election by Geostatistical(m): 2:41am On Feb 07, 2015 |
Tell dem ooo Valentinooo: |
| Re: My Prediction Of March,28 2015 Presidential Election by eaglechild: 3:30am On Feb 07, 2015 |
Buhari will still lose. |
| Re: My Prediction Of March,28 2015 Presidential Election by Geostatistical(m): 4:12am On Feb 07, 2015 |
Proof ur point eaglechild: |
| Re: My Prediction Of March,28 2015 Presidential Election by fitzmayowa: 4:28am On Feb 07, 2015 |
Another one of those predictions again...hian una no dey tire  None of them is guaranteed sure victory until after the last vote is counted, so lets keep our fingers crossed till after the whole counting process1 Like |
| Re: My Prediction Of March,28 2015 Presidential Election by Geostatistical(m): 4:38am On Feb 07, 2015 |
You r right bro.....Prediction isnt bad though, atleast to have a glimpse of the future fitzmayowa: 1 Like |
| Re: My Prediction Of March,28 2015 Presidential Election by Geostatistical(m): 10:35am On Mar 19, 2015 |
THis is quiet similar to my prediction Source: SUNNEWSONLINE
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