blogs.cfr.org/campbell/2015/02/06/nigerian-presidential-elections-postponed/

Nigeria’s presidential elections are
scheduled for February 14, 2015,
though there has long been speculation
that they might be postponed. The
Nigerian National Security Advisor,
Sambo Dasuki, called for the elections
to be postponed on January 22 to
allow time for the distribution of
Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs), which
are necessary for a ballot to be cast.
Dasuki’s call was rejected by the
opposition and civil society.
On February 4, a commissioner of the
Independent National Electoral
Commission (INEC), the body in
charge of conducting elections, re-
opened the possibility that the vote
could be postponed. Amina Zachary,
another electoral commissioner,
confirmed that only 44 million out of
68.8 million PVCs had been
distributed to voters. According to
reports, 60 percent of voter cards have
been distributed in eleven of Nigeria’s
thirty-six states. In four states, less
than 50 percent have been dispursed.
In Lagos, Nigeria’s most populous
state, about 40 percent of cards have
reached voters. INEC plans to review
election preperations on February 8,
the initial deadline for completing PVC
distribution, in order to decide
whether to continue delivering PVCs
up to the election or honor the
deadline.
The slow distribution rate of PVCs
could effectively disenfranchise a
substantial percentage of the
electorate. If INEC proceeds with
elections and more PVCs are not
delivered, a significant portion of the
voting population would not have their
say on election day, a reality that
would call into question the credibility
of the elections. In addition, INEC is
having trouble delivering PVCs to
Yobe, Borno, and Adamawa, the three
northern states under a state of
emergency. Swaths of this territory is
controlled by the radical Islamist
movement, Boko Haram. It is expected
that the group will try to significantly
disrupt voting. It is also likely that a
high percentage of Nigeria’s one
million-plus internally displaced
persons and refugees will be unable to
vote, despite reports that INEC is
making some provisions for them.
Attahiru Jega, then as now the INEC
chairman, delayed the 2011
presidential elections by one week. As
is currently the case, voting materials
for the 2011 election had not been
distributed throughout the country on
time. In 2011, by and large, non-
governmental organizations were
supportive of Jega’s decision. Today, it
is unclear whether postponement
would be welcomed. The opposition
All Progressives Congress (APC) is
deeply suspicious that the governing
Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and
incumbent president Goodluck
Jonathan would somehow use
postponement to rig the elections.
Most recently, the council of state, an
organ of the Nigerian government that
advises the executive branch,
determined that the elections should
not be postponed. Western media is
claiming that the council convinced
government proponents of the
postponement to back down. It
remains to be seen whether the council
will maintain this stance as we get
closer to elections.
The logistics of conducting a national
election in Nigeria are daunting in the
best of times. Failure to distribute
many PVCs along with a very close
race between the two presidential
candidates, much higher levels of pre-
election violence than in 2011, and the
Boko Haram insurrection compound
the challenges of holding credible
elections. To say the least, these are
not the best of times.