Brookings, the World’s most influential think-tank
based in the United States, have projected a
President Jonathan victory over the opposition
candidate’s General Buhari in the 2015 Elections
which it suggests would be keenly contested.
The analysis, context and rationale of the think-
tank’s projections is contained in the Brookings
publication titled: Foresight Africa – Top Priorities
for the continent (January 2015).
“Though the election is expected to be very
competitive, the odds still favor President
Jonathan.’
According to Brookings, the All Progressives
Congress (APC) is a fragile anti-jonathan
establishment with a sole purpose to return power
to the north.
“The party is, however, a fragile one that seems
united only in its quest to wrest the presidency from
Jonathan or to have power “returned” to the north”
“The APC gets much of its strength from tap- ping
into anti-Jonathan sentiments in the Muslim north
and grievances among the Yoruba who feel that the
Jonathan administration has ignored them in key
political appointments.”
The Report also indicated that the APC’s strategy is
hinged on a combination of popular votes from the
North West, North East and “the battleground
SouthWest” but also hinted at the possibility of Bola
Ahmed Tinubu not delivering the region contrary to
speculations.
“What remains to be seen, however, is whether Bola
Tinubu—a former governor of Lagos State who
played a pivotal role in the formation of the APC and
is considered to be the party’s strongest mobi- lizer
in the southwest—will be very enthusias- tic in
delivering the battleground southwest to the APC
during the elections.”
“Tinubu indicated his interest in being the party’s
vice presidential candidate but being a Muslim like
Buhari, the party’s strategists felt that a Muslim-
Muslim ticket might offend Christians and cement
the PDP’s labeling of the APC as an Islamic party.”
On President Jonathan’s performance: “despite
Boko Haram—the country is thriving: The economy
continues to grow and—with the re- basing of its
GDP—became the largest econo- my in Africa and
the 26th largest in the world. Jonathan’s supporters
also point to his success in containing the Ebola
virus, which earned him commendations from
countries and institutions around the world.”
The Brookings Report also identified factors such as
incumbency and numerical control of States where
PDP has 21 States and APC only 14 as giving PDP
an edge.
“The greatest strength of the ruling PDP is its
“power of incumbency,” and all the institutional
support that goes with it. Not only does it have
federal resources to use as patronage, it also
controls key institutions”
The report advised that all efforts should be
deployed to ensure a free, fair and transparent
elections and to avoid a meltdown as post-election
violence seems very likely.
“Post-election violence is therefore likely in the
north if the APC loses while renewed militancy in
the restive Niger Delta is likely if Jonathan does.”
the report noted.

Anything but buhari!

I have always known that APC is an assembly of strange bed fellows, hurriedly assembled to wrestle power from GEJ with no focus on how to use the power and after GEJ's victory will crumble like a pack of card. That is why their campaign strategy is founded on lies and propaganda. Be prepare for the barrage of defections back to PDP after GEJ's victory at the polls.