http://www.inecnigeria.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/REPORT-ON-PVC-COLLECTIONS-March-12-NET.xlsx

1 ABIA 1,396,162 1,177,520
2 ADAMAWA 1,559,012 1,381,571
3 AKWA-IBOM 1,680,759 1,587,566
4 ANAMBRA 1,963,173 1,658,967
5 BAUCHI 2,054,125 1,778,380
6 BAYELSA 610,373 546,372
7 BENUE 2,015,452 1,607,800
8 BORNO 1,934,079 1,407,777
9 CROSS RIVER 1,175,623 963,929
10 DELTA 2,275,264 1,921,627
11 EBONYI 1,074,273 848,392
12 EDO 1,779,738 1,218,734
13 EKITI 732,021 511,790
14 ENUGU 1,429,221 1,223,606
15 FCT 881,472 569,109
16 GOMBE 1,120,023 1,069,635
17 IMO 1,803,030 1,707,449
18 JIGAWA 1,831,276 1,756,320
19 KADUNA 3,407,222 3,174,519
20 KANO 4,975,701 4,112,039
21 KATSINA 2,827,943 2,620,096
22 KEBBI 1,470,648 1,372,630
23 KOGI 1,350,883 926,013
24 KWARA 1,142,267 884,996
25 LAGOS 5,822,207 3,767,647
26 NASARAWA 1,242,667 1,048,053
27 NIGER 2,014,317 1,682,058
28 OGUN 1,829,534 904,647
29 ONDO 1,524,655 1,110,844
30 OSUN 1,407,107 1,030,051
31 OYO 2,415,566 1,639,967
32 PLATEAU 2,001,825 1,508,585
33 RIVERS 2,537,590 2,127,837
34 SOKOTO 1,611,929 1,527,004
35 TARABA 1,340,652 1,270,889
36 YOBE 1,099,970 824,401
37 ZAMFARA 1,495,717 1,435,452
Total 68,833,476 55,904,272

I have been looking at the possible case scenario that can happen at the coming Presidential election next week based on the available data released by INEC as at 12th March 2015.
In all, 55,904,272 registered voters have collected their PVCs and let's look at some possibilities:
Lets take 80% voters' turnout across board which means we will take available figures as absolute voters per state although i foresee high, moderate and fair turn out across the states.

First : States according to the strength of each candidate - This is a general knowledge that ether candidates of PDP and the APC has their traditional states where they are strong and will capture at least 75% of votes cast.

JONATHAN
1. ABIA-1, 177,520
2. ENUGU-1,223,606
3. ANAMBRA -1,658,967
4. EBONYI - 848,392
5. IMO -1,707,449
6. RIVERS - 2,127,837
7. CROSS RIVER- 963,929
8. AKWA IBOM-1,587,566
9. BAYELSA-546,372
10. DELTA- 1,921627
11. BENUE- 1,607,800
12. 1,508,585
TOTAL - 16,879,650

BUHARI
1. SOKOTO-1,527,004
2. ZAMFARA- 1,435,452
3. KEBBI - 1,372,630
4. KATSINA- 2,620,096
5. NIGER- 1,682,058
6. KADUNA- 3,174,519
7. JIGAWA- 1,756,320
8. YOBE - 824,401
9. BORNO - 1,407,777
10. ADAMAWA- 1,381,571
11. BAUCHI-1,778,380
12. GOMBE - 1,069,635
13. NASARAWA-1,048,053
14. KANO- 4,112,039
15. KWARA - 884,996
TOTAL -26,074,931

SOME SOUTHWEST STATES
1. LAGOS - 3,767,647
2. OGUN - 904,647
3. OSUN - 1,030,051
4. OYO- 1,639,967
TOTAL - 7,342,312

SWING STATES
1. EDO -1,218,734
2. EKITI - 511,790
3. ONDO - 1,110,844
4. TARABA - 1,270,889
5. FCT - 569,109
6. KOGI - 926,013
TOTAL - 5,607,379

I have grouped these states according to the strength of each candidate. Now, many people will argue on these swing states but believe me both candidates have their strengths and weaknesses there which may compensate for each other. I will freeze some political factors and look at scenarios with these figures to see some possibilities.
1. if equal turn out is achieved across all states and voters vote according to strength of each candidate AND LETS SAY THE SWING STATES ARE SHARED 50% each include some southwest states as indicated above:

JONATHAN WINS = 16,879,650 + 3,671,156+2,803,689.5
= 23,354,495.5
BUHARI WINS = 26,074,931+3,671,156+2,803,689.5
= 32,549,776.5
VERDICT : BUHARI WINS outrightly

2. Supposing Jonathan has 25% of votes cast in Buhari's strong holds and Buhari has 10% in Jonathan's strongholds while Buhari wins 60% in some Southwest states and both share swing states 50-50 :

JONATHAN WINS =6,518,732.75+15,191, 685+2,936,934.8+2,803,689.5
= 27,451,042.05
BUHARI WINS = 19,556,198.25+1,687,965.5+4,405,387.2+2,803,689.5
= 28,453,240.45
BUHARI WINS by slim margin

3. Supposing Buhari wins 85% of votes cast in his strong areas, Jonathan win 90% in his own, Jonathan win majority in swing states say 60% and BUHARI wins 70% in some southwest states :
JONATHAN WINS = 3,911,239.65+15,191,685+3,364,427.4+2,202,693.6
= 24,670,045.65
BUHARI WINS = 31,234,226.35

A whole lots of scenario modeling can be done by you but realistically. If based on factors that can influence this election we can give
1. Buhari strong areas = between 80-90% of votes cast
2. Jonathan strong areas returning between 75-90% votes cast
3. Buhari wins at least 50% in some southwest states(realistically, he wont get less than 60%) of all votes cast
4. Jonathan and Buhari share swing states 50-50( Note, its not certain if Fayose's influence in Ekiti will matter, if it does, Jonathan wins but the total voting population is not sufficient to upturn results as Buhari is popular in Kogi and Taraba)

Low registration and PVC collection is not good for GEJ as pattern revealed Northerners can always endure long hours to vote unlike in the south where many wont do such thing.
Another factor is Lagos. THERE IS A STRONG INDICATION THAT OVER A MILLION PEOPLE MAY NOT VOTE FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS
1. Some of registered voter actually registered close to their places of work and this affect a huge population of those that dwell in the outskirt towns of Ogun state
2. This is similarly going to affect alot of Igbo voters that registered close to their shops if they live far away means they wont be able to also vote.
3. Many Lagosians may not just vote anticipating violence or just indifference, sitting at home and watching television, this is where those who mobilized for registration in 2011 will likely have more votes.
Let me stop and read comments

TRASH!

mandarin:
http://www.inecnigeria.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/REPORT-ON-PVC-COLLECTIONS-March-12-NET.xlsx

1 ABIA 1,396,162 1,177,520
2 ADAMAWA 1,559,012 1,381,571
3 AKWA-IBOM 1,680,759 1,587,566
4 ANAMBRA 1,963,173 1,658,967
5 BAUCHI 2,054,125 1,778,380
6 BAYELSA 610,373 546,372
7 BENUE 2,015,452 1,607,800
8 BORNO 1,934,079 1,407,777
9 CROSS RIVER 1,175,623 963,929
10 DELTA 2,275,264 1,921,627
11 EBONYI 1,074,273 848,392
12 EDO 1,779,738 1,218,734
13 EKITI 732,021 511,790
14 ENUGU 1,429,221 1,223,606
15 FCT 881,472 569,109
16 GOMBE 1,120,023 1,069,635
17 IMO 1,803,030 1,707,449
18 JIGAWA 1,831,276 1,756,320
19 KADUNA 3,407,222 3,174,519
20 KANO 4,975,701 4,112,039
21 KATSINA 2,827,943 2,620,096
22 KEBBI 1,470,648 1,372,630
23 KOGI 1,350,883 926,013
24 KWARA 1,142,267 884,996
25 LAGOS 5,822,207 3,767,647
26 NASARAWA 1,242,667 1,048,053
27 NIGER 2,014,317 1,682,058
28 OGUN 1,829,534 904,647
29 ONDO 1,524,655 1,110,844
30 OSUN 1,407,107 1,030,051
31 OYO 2,415,566 1,639,967
32 PLATEAU 2,001,825 1,508,585
33 RIVERS 2,537,590 2,127,837
34 SOKOTO 1,611,929 1,527,004
35 TARABA 1,340,652 1,270,889
36 YOBE 1,099,970 824,401
37 ZAMFARA 1,495,717 1,435,452
Total 68,833,476 55,904,272

I have been looking at the possible case scenario that can happen at the coming Presidential election next week based on the available data released by INEC as at 12th March 2015.
In all, 55,904,272 registered voters have collected their PVCs and let's look at some possibilities:
Lets take 80% voters' turnout across board which means we will take available figures as absolute voters per state although i foresee high, moderate and fair turn out across the states.

First : States according to the strength of each candidate - This is a general knowledge that ether candidates of PDP and the APC has their traditional states where they are strong and will capture at least 75% of votes cast.

JONATHAN
1. ABIA-1, 177,520
2. ENUGU-1,223,606
3. ANAMBRA -1,658,967
4. EBONYI - 848,392
5. IMO -1,707,449
6. RIVERS - 2,127,837
7. CROSS RIVER- 963,929
8. AKWA IBOM-1,587,566
9. BAYELSA-546,372
10. DELTA- 1,921627
11. BENUE- 1,607,800
12. 1,508,585
TOTAL - 16,879,650

BUHARI
1. SOKOTO-1,527,004
2. ZAMFARA- 1,435,452
3. KEBBI - 1,372,630
4. KATSINA- 2,620,096
5. NIGER- 1,682,058
6. KADUNA- 3,174,519
7. JIGAWA- 1,756,320
8. YOBE - 824,401
9. BORNO - 1,407,777
10. ADAMAWA- 1,381,571
11. BAUCHI-1,778,380
12. GOMBE - 1,069,635
13. NASARAWA-1,048,053
14. KANO- 4,112,039
15. KWARA - 884,996
TOTAL -26,074,931

SOME SOUTHWEST STATES
1. LAGOS - 3,767,647
2. OGUN - 904,647
3. OSUN - 1,030,051
4. OYO- 1,639,967
TOTAL - 7,342,312

SWING STATES
1. EDO -1,218,734
2. EKITI - 511,790
3. ONDO - 1,110,844
4. TARABA - 1,270,889
5. FCT - 569,109
6. KOGI - 926,013
TOTAL - 5,607,379

I have grouped these states according to the strength of each candidate. Now, many people will argue on these swing states but believe me both candidates have their strengths and weaknesses there which may compensate for each other. I will freeze some political factors and look at scenarios with these figures to see some possibilities.
1. if equal turn out is achieved across all states and voters vote according to strength of each candidate AND LETS SAY THE SWING STATES ARE SHARED 50% each include some southwest states as indicated above:

JONATHAN WINS = 16,879,650 + 3,671,156+2,803,689.5
= 23,354,495.5
BUHARI WINS = 26,074,931+3,671,156+2,803,689.5
= 32,549,776.5
VERDICT : BUHARI WINS outrightly

2. Supposing Jonathan has 25% of votes cast in Buhari's strong holds and Buhari has 10% in Jonathan's strongholds while Buhari wins 60% in some Southwest states and both share swing states 50-50 :

JONATHAN WINS =6,518,732.75+15,191, 685+2,936,934.8+2,803,689.5
= 27,451,042.05
BUHARI WINS = 19,556,198.25+1,687,965.5+4,405,387.2+2,803,689.5
= 28,453,240.45
BUHARI WINS by slim margin

3. Supposing Buhari wins 85% of votes cast in his strong areas, Jonathan win 90% in his own, Jonathan win majority in swing states say 60% and BUHARI wins 70% in some southwest states :
JONATHAN WINS = 3,911,239.65+15,191,685+3,364,427.4+2,202,693.6
= 24,670,045.65
BUHARI WINS = 31,234,226.35

A whole lots of scenario modeling can be done by you but realistically. If based on factors that can influence this election we can give
1. Buhari strong areas = between 80-90% of votes cast
2. Jonathan strong areas returning between 75-90% votes cast
3. Buhari wins at least 50% in some southwest states(realistically, he wont get less than 60%) of all votes cast
4. Jonathan and Buhari share swing states 50-50( Note, its not certain if Fayose's influence in Ekiti will matter, if it does, Jonathan wins but the total voting population is not sufficient to upturn results as Buhari is popular in Kogi and Taraba)

Low registration and PVC collection is not good for GEJ as pattern revealed Northerners can always endure long hours to vote unlike in the south where many wont do such thing.
Another factor is Lagos. THERE IS A STRONG INDICATION THAT OVER A MILLION PEOPLE MAY NOT VOTE FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS
1. Some of registered voter actually registered close to their places of work and this affect a huge population of those that dwell in the outskirt towns of Ogun state
2. This is similarly going to affect alot of Igbo voters that registered close to their shops if they live far away means they wont be able to also vote.
3. Many Lagosians may not just vote anticipating violence or just indifference, sitting at home and watching television, this is where those who mobilized for registration in 2011 will likely have more votes.
Let me stop and read comments

Guy i salute your astuteness and statistical sagacity


No matter how one looks at it,a Buhari Presidency is highly possible

i just got off the phone with friends in Nigeria as i always do every week( using a #5 Boss Revolution Call card) as part of my individual contribution to the coming elections and all of them(which include 4 Igbos) would vote for Buhari

The only person who stays in Abuja who wants to vote GEJ told me in confidence that Buhari Presidency will come and 'spoil show for him'....whatever he means by that

So which ever way one looks at it Buhari will ace the SW as the sentiments which allowed SWners to vote for GEJ have all been obliterated

People have now seen Jonathan as a Poster Boy of Corruption and the Archbishop of Looters Assembly


Change is Coming!!!

OP mandarin

Good job! You actually took time do some in-depth analysis. In fact you even assumed a 50-50 in lagos (when we know that GMB sweeps lagos convincingly) but of course you still arrive at the result WE ALL KNOW!! BUHARI WINS, whichever way you look at it!

GEJites know this, but they don't want to tell themselves the truth. Also, they want to keep getting dollars from the maga.

So please hide this post so that some people don't get HBP!

PS. Notice that all the GEJites that will come will NOT intelligently counter your analysis. . they will yell things like;
trash. . GEJ til 68585958, OP you dey mad, Buhari is boko haram etc. Don't be offended when they say these things. It's in their nature.

Once again, good job!

SAI BUHARI!!

Utter RUBBISH!
you'll be disillusioned by the 29th when results start rolling in

mandarin:
http://www.inecnigeria.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/REPORT-ON-PVC-COLLECTIONS-March-12-NET.xlsx

1 ABIA 1,396,162 1,177,520
2 ADAMAWA 1,559,012 1,381,571
3 AKWA-IBOM 1,680,759 1,587,566
4 ANAMBRA 1,963,173 1,658,967
5 BAUCHI 2,054,125 1,778,380
6 BAYELSA 610,373 546,372
7 BENUE 2,015,452 1,607,800
8 BORNO 1,934,079 1,407,777
9 CROSS RIVER 1,175,623 963,929
10 DELTA 2,275,264 1,921,627
11 EBONYI 1,074,273 848,392
12 EDO 1,779,738 1,218,734
13 EKITI 732,021 511,790
14 ENUGU 1,429,221 1,223,606
15 FCT 881,472 569,109
16 GOMBE 1,120,023 1,069,635
17 IMO 1,803,030 1,707,449
18 JIGAWA 1,831,276 1,756,320
19 KADUNA 3,407,222 3,174,519
20 KANO 4,975,701 4,112,039
21 KATSINA 2,827,943 2,620,096
22 KEBBI 1,470,648 1,372,630
23 KOGI 1,350,883 926,013
24 KWARA 1,142,267 884,996
25 LAGOS 5,822,207 3,767,647
26 NASARAWA 1,242,667 1,048,053
27 NIGER 2,014,317 1,682,058
28 OGUN 1,829,534 904,647
29 ONDO 1,524,655 1,110,844
30 OSUN 1,407,107 1,030,051
31 OYO 2,415,566 1,639,967
32 PLATEAU 2,001,825 1,508,585
33 RIVERS 2,537,590 2,127,837
34 SOKOTO 1,611,929 1,527,004
35 TARABA 1,340,652 1,270,889
36 YOBE 1,099,970 824,401
37 ZAMFARA 1,495,717 1,435,452
Total 68,833,476 55,904,272

I have been looking at the possible case scenario that can happen at the coming Presidential election next week based on the available data released by INEC as at 12th March 2015.
In all, 55,904,272 registered voters have collected their PVCs and let's look at some possibilities:
Lets take 80% voters' turnout across board which means we will take available figures as absolute voters per state although i foresee high, moderate and fair turn out across the states.

First : States according to the strength of each candidate - This is a general knowledge that ether candidates of PDP and the APC has their traditional states where they are strong and will capture at least 75% of votes cast.

JONATHAN
1. ABIA-1, 177,520
2. ENUGU-1,223,606
3. ANAMBRA -1,658,967
4. EBONYI - 848,392
5. IMO -1,707,449
6. RIVERS - 2,127,837
7. CROSS RIVER- 963,929
8. AKWA IBOM-1,587,566
9. BAYELSA-546,372
10. DELTA- 1,921627
11. BENUE- 1,607,800
12. 1,508,585
TOTAL - 16,879,650

BUHARI
1. SOKOTO-1,527,004
2. ZAMFARA- 1,435,452
3. KEBBI - 1,372,630
4. KATSINA- 2,620,096
5. NIGER- 1,682,058
6. KADUNA- 3,174,519
7. JIGAWA- 1,756,320
8. YOBE - 824,401
9. BORNO - 1,407,777
10. ADAMAWA- 1,381,571
11. BAUCHI-1,778,380
12. GOMBE - 1,069,635
13. NASARAWA-1,048,053
14. KANO- 4,112,039
15. KWARA - 884,996
TOTAL -26,074,931

SOME SOUTHWEST STATES
1. LAGOS - 3,767,647
2. OGUN - 904,647
3. OSUN - 1,030,051
4. OYO- 1,639,967
TOTAL - 7,342,312

SWING STATES
1. EDO -1,218,734
2. EKITI - 511,790
3. ONDO - 1,110,844
4. TARABA - 1,270,889
5. FCT - 569,109
6. KOGI - 926,013
TOTAL - 5,607,379

I have grouped these states according to the strength of each candidate. Now, many people will argue on these swing states but believe me both candidates have their strengths and weaknesses there which may compensate for each other. I will freeze some political factors and look at scenarios with these figures to see some possibilities.
1. if equal turn out is achieved across all states and voters vote according to strength of each candidate AND LETS SAY THE SWING STATES ARE SHARED 50% each include some southwest states as indicated above:

JONATHAN WINS = 16,879,650 + 3,671,156+2,803,689.5
= 23,354,495.5
BUHARI WINS = 26,074,931+3,671,156+2,803,689.5
= 32,549,776.5
VERDICT : BUHARI WINS outrightly

2. Supposing Jonathan has 25% of votes cast in Buhari's strong holds and Buhari has 10% in Jonathan's strongholds while Buhari wins 60% in some Southwest states and both share swing states 50-50 :

JONATHAN WINS =6,518,732.75+15,191, 685+2,936,934.8+2,803,689.5
= 27,451,042.05
BUHARI WINS = 19,556,198.25+1,687,965.5+4,405,387.2+2,803,689.5
= 28,453,240.45
BUHARI WINS by slim margin

3. Supposing Buhari wins 85% of votes cast in his strong areas, Jonathan win 90% in his own, Jonathan win majority in swing states say 60% and BUHARI wins 70% in some southwest states :
JONATHAN WINS = 3,911,239.65+15,191,685+3,364,427.4+2,202,693.6
= 24,670,045.65
BUHARI WINS = 31,234,226.35

A whole lots of scenario modeling can be done by you but realistically. If based on factors that can influence this election we can give
1. Buhari strong areas = between 80-90% of votes cast
2. Jonathan strong areas returning between 75-90% votes cast
3. Buhari wins at least 50% in some southwest states(realistically, he wont get less than 60%) of all votes cast
4. Jonathan and Buhari share swing states 50-50( Note, its not certain if Fayose's influence in Ekiti will matter, if it does, Jonathan wins but the total voting population is not sufficient to upturn results as Buhari is popular in Kogi and Taraba)

Low registration and PVC collection is not good for GEJ as pattern revealed Northerners can always endure long hours to vote unlike in the south where many wont do such thing.
Another factor is Lagos. THERE IS A STRONG INDICATION THAT OVER A MILLION PEOPLE MAY NOT VOTE FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS
1. Some of registered voter actually registered close to their places of work and this affect a huge population of those that dwell in the outskirt towns of Ogun state
2. This is similarly going to affect alot of Igbo voters that registered close to their shops if they live far away means they wont be able to also vote.
3. Many Lagosians may not just vote anticipating violence or just indifference, sitting at home and watching television, this is where those who mobilized for registration in 2011 will likely have more votes.
Let me stop and read comments

SPOT ON.

bondingman & temitemi1, why not give us your own statistical analysis instead of just outrightly dismissing this painstaking, albeit controversial efforts? Thanks as you oblige, please.

Eggcelent:
bondingman & temitemi1, why not give us your own statistical analysis instead of just outrightly dismissing this painstaking, albeit controversial efforts? Thanks as you oblige, please.

The political terrain is still very fluid
Let's get closer, at least till INEC stops PVC collection then d percentage error in statistical analysis will be reduced to acceptable limits.
Till then its GEJ all the way

The book biggest challenge to this is the possibility of credible candidates in other political parties in the North affecting APC 's votes. Your permutations is right except to the extent that you make Benue a GEJ State. Benue is at best a swing state.

I don't patronize.This is an objective consideration of reality.The truth is, people in the south of the country need to do more in participating in elections. In Lagos alone there could still be additional 3million indifferent qualified voters that have refused to register talk less of voting while there are more hundreds of thousands more that didn't register in Oyo, over a million more in Ogun.
There is the need for mass mobilization in the south as I believe the number of voters can equal or more than that of the North.
That said,from the analysis, its pretty difficult for GEJ and believe me turn out will be lower in the south especially in Ekiti where there won't be gubernatorial election, I predict less than 300, 000 or around 250,000 voters. Ondo state too will be low too may be 70% or slightly above.
There will be high turn out where there will be gubernatorial elections why voters turn out in Lagos will be affected by earlier stated reasons

Whoever did this crap must be writing from Mars!

Ekiti, Edo, Taraba et al as swing states?

I will not waste my time reacting to this unacademic and ignorant exercise.

Killing ur selves for election that will not hold. Who doubt should bet.

maestroferddi:
Whoever did this crap must be writing from Mars!

Ekiti, Edo, Taraba et al as swing states?

I will not waste my time analysis this unacademic and ignorant exercise.

I don't know what you mean by ignorant exercise, I've done this bases on objectivity and l believe its fair to both sides. Let me tell you that Benue, Ekiti, Ondo, Kogi and Taraba ate states you can't bank your bet

The problem with your analysis is in the error of your assumptions.

First error is in placing Kaduna, Adamawa and Nasarawa firmly under Buhari.
Thats an apparent sign that you aren't in tune with Northern politics. You would have had a better analysis if you used historical data to support you postulations.
Kaduna is the best definition of a swing state. Two factors would count for GEJ: 1)Southern Kaduna. 2)The VP & the incumbent. In 2011, Kaduna gave GEJ 1.2m and GMB 1.3m. So lumping Kaduna in the same mould as Kano, Bauchi, Borno and the likes is an error already.
Nasarawa has an APC governor, but would have a PDP victory because of the Ethno Religious politics present in the state. Adamawa would be pretty close to call but a greater likelihood the PDP would hold sway.

Second error is in your swing states assumption. Edo & Taraba.
Edo is safe, very safe for PDP. In 2011, PDP won by a wide margin. At that time, Oshiomole was very popular. In 2015, Oshiomole has become so unpopular that he would lose an today to even to the very unpopular Igbinedion. So while Edo north would give Buhari some votes, majority of the votes would definitely go to PDP. Taraba is PDP and would give GEJ better margins than any state in the SW.

The best statistical analysis would come from lumping states with similar voting patterns together and according them percentage weights.
Better still, do a state by state run and award percentages based on both historical data and current realities.

mandarin:


I don't know what you mean by ignorant exercise, I've done this bases on objectivity and l believe its fair to both sides. Let me tell you that Benue, Ekiti, Ondo, Kogi and Taraba ate states you can't bank your bet

Dont fall for the bait of that dude you just quoted

He is one of the deluded folks on this forum alongside the discredited Barcanista....2 individuals who have constituted themselves into latter day pontificants over SW voting idiosyncracies

PapaBrowne:
The problem with your analysis is in the error of your assumptions.

[b]First error is in placing Kaduna, Adamawa and Nasarawa firmly under Buhari.
[/b]Thats an apparent sign that you aren't in tune with Northern politics. You would have had a better analysis if you used historical data to support you postulations.
Kaduna is the best definition of a swing state. Two factors would count for GEJ: 1)Southern Kaduna. 2)The VP & the incumbent. In 2011, Kaduna gave GEJ 1.2m and GMB 1.3m. So lumping Kaduna in the same mould as Kano, Bauchi, Borno and the likes is an error already.
Nasarawa has an APC governor, but would have a PDP victory because of the Ethno Religious politics present in the state. Adamawa would be pretty close to call but a greater likelihood the PDP would hold sway.

Second error is in your swing states assumption. Edo is safe, very safe for PDP.

First of all, kudos for actually attempting to counter-analyse unlike others that just come and insult a decent job and go.

Next, I will concede that Nasarawa might be a swing state. But don't take Edo state out of the swing states o. Big mistake! People make the mistake of lumping Edo state with other S/S states. Error! Apart from the fact that the north of edo has a large muslim population (and religion plays a part sadly), it's not for no reason that it is an APC state! The people of Edo state HATE THE PDP! largely because of Lucky Igbinedion and Tony Anenih! Fact! The only reason it is not an outright WIn for BUHARI is because Oshiomole's popularity has declined. At the peak of Oshio Baba's popularity, GEJ would have been camping there like he is doing in Lagos!

Now, to KADUNA state! This was sooo hilarious!!!

Unlike The S/S and S/W where OUR SON will work for GEJ and osibanjo respectively, Kaduna state will be overwhelmingly won by BUHARI! I can place a bet on this.

Didn't you hear of the catastrophe that was the Kaduna rally? The deputy governor shouted to the LOC to GO AND BRING THE CROWD! Sambo was thoroughly embarassed! The stadium was empty and the people there were (a) paid money (there is pictoral evidence) and (b) The others kept shouting SAI BUHARI that they had to chase them out of the stadium I am surprised you didn't know about this. See link
http://www.punchng.com/news/poor-turnout-as-jonathan-takes-campaign-to-kaduna/

The IMMENSE POPULARITY of EL-RUFAI in Kaduna also means he will take the governorship post. In addition, the Southern Kaduna votes have been further hurt by GEJ's embarassment of Agwai!

Ah, guy, I can write an essay on kaduna o. No need to argue. PM your fellow PDP guys quietly and they will tell you what's up!

If you need further clarification I can help you!

PapaBrowne:
The problem with your analysis is in the error of your assumptions.

First error is in placing Kaduna, Adamawa and Nasarawa firmly under Buhari.
Thats an apparent sign that you aren't in tune with Northern politics. You would have had a better analysis if you used historical data to support you postulations.
Kaduna is the best definition of a swing state. Two factors would count for GEJ: 1)Southern Kaduna. 2)The VP & the incumbent. In 2011, Kaduna gave GEJ 1.2m and GMB 1.3m. So lumping Kaduna in the same mould as Kano, Bauchi, Borno and the likes is an error already.
Nasarawa has an APC governor, but would have a PDP victory because of the Ethno Religious politics present in the state. Adamawa would be pretty close to call but a greater likelihood the PDP would hold sway.

Second error is in your swing states assumption. Edo & Taraba.
Edo is safe, very safe for PDP. In 2011, PDP won by a wide margin. At that time, Oshiomole was very popular. In 2015, Oshiomole has become so unpopular that he would lose an today to even to the very unpopular Igbinedion. So while Edo north would give Buhari some votes, majority of the votes would definitely go to PDP. Taraba is PDP and would give GEJ better margins than any state in the SW.

The best statistical analysis would come from lumping states with similar voting patterns together and according them percentage weights.
Better still, do a state by state run and award percentages based on both historical data and current realities.

Thanks sir for your thoughts. I was involved in a research recently and wish to state that there are facts behind these figures and estimates.I see it as purely academic and not to raise undue hopes for party supporters or mislead people's expectations.
You can assume but. I think the time is near for this result and I can bet in a free and fair election ,at least 85% accuracy.
Kaduna is going to be different and Southern Kaduna which has a huge population of Igbo and Yoruba and ethnic groups of Southern Kaduna will majorly have igbo voters in support of Jonathan.Religion has no serious play in this because of Osinbajo, call and ask the Christian community there. El Rufai is damn too popular. The truth is this election will defy many long standing ethnic and religious sentiments.
Secondly, in the best case scenario for GEJ is a 30% votes there which alongside fair performances in Taraba, Nasarawa and Adamawa will give maybe a total 20% of votes cast to GEJ, now, that will be a good performance for GEJ because Buhari will win massive in remaining states and get up to at least 40% in Benue and Plateau. I just left Kogi and Edo are swing state and not Nasarawa.
So if you agree that voters turn out will be a huge factor in this election let me know because the number of votes in the southwest may nit be impressive in Ondo and Ekiti, maybe both of them can give a total of a million votes.Its difficult to say for certainty who will win in both states and sitting governors and Osinbajo factors will be at play at varying degrees.
if they chose the path of ethnicity because of a Yoruba VP its a great victory for Buhari.I actually believe Edo will be shared while GEJ will win in all of East and Niger Delta.

It is very clear that you possess a superficial understanding of Nigerian politics. You obviously base your assumptions on the propaganda of the APC leaning and owned media like Punch and The Nation.

You are probably the first person on this forum that categorised Ekiti as a swing state. One then begins to imagine whether you are doing something academic or just regaling yourself with wishful thinking.

I don't even know where to start broaching the slew of crass assumptions and sweeping generalisation commonplace in your piece.

mandarin:


Thanks sir for your thoughts. I was involved in a research recently and wish to state that there are facts behind these figures and estimates.I see it as purely academic and not to raise undue hopes for party supporters or mislead people's expectations.
You can assume but. I think the time is near for this result and I can bet in a free and fair election ,at least 85% accuracy.
Kaduna is going to be different and Southern Kaduna which has a huge population of Igbo and Yoruba and ethnic groups of Southern Kaduna will majorly have igbo voters in support of Jonathan.Religion has no serious play in this because of Osinbajo, call and ask the Christian community there. El Rufai is damn too popular. The truth is this election will defy many long standing ethnic and religious sentiments.
Secondly, in the best case scenario for GEJ is a 30% votes there which alongside fair performances in Taraba, Nasarawa and Adamawa will give maybe a total 20% of votes cast to GEJ, now, that will be a good performance for GEJ because Buhari will win massive in remaining states and get up to at least 40% in Benue and Plateau. I just left Kogi and Edo are swing state and not Nasarawa.
So if you agree that voters turn out will be a huge factor in this election let me know because the number of votes in the southwest may nit be impressive in Ondo and Ekiti, maybe both of them can give a total of a million votes.Its difficult to say for certainty who will win in both states and sitting governors and Osinbajo factors will be at play at varying degrees.
if they chose the path of ethnicity because of a Yoruba VP its a great victory for Buhari.I actually believe Edo will be shared while GEJ will win in all of East and Niger Delta.

You must be a joker given the crappy views you are expressing here.

This is not worth my time at all...

U r all magicians, let's celebrate GEJ,s victory

I was so socked yesterday when a PDP supporter admitted Buhari will win if election holds.

Even the PDP knows GEJ has no chance of winning if the elections will be free, fear and credible.

Change in coming__ sai Buhari

Sooroptimist:
Guy i salute your astuteness and statistical sagacity


No matter how one looks at it,a Buhari Presidency is highly possible

i just got off the phone with friends in Nigeria as i always do every week( using a #5 Boss Revolution Call card) as part of my individual contribution to the coming elections and all of them(which include 4 Igbos) would vote for Buhari

The only person who stays in Abuja who wants to vote GEJ told me in confidence that Buhari Presidency will come and 'spoil show for him'....whatever he means by that

So which ever way one looks at it Buhari will ace the SW as the sentiments which allowed SWners to vote for GEJ have all been obliterated

People have now seen Jonathan as a Poster Boy of Corruption and the Archbishop of Looters Assembly


Change is Coming!!!

Well, we have no problem with folks who have elected to pitch their tents in a fool's paradise.

At the opportune time, we shall ascertain which way the cat jumps...

very brilliant analysis. I believe there will be more shocker for Jonathan though. In the south east especially, there will be low voter turnout due to indifference to the election, avoidance of violence, or dissatisfaction with Jonathan's performance and lack of new convincing promises. This will not be the case in the north. Most northers registered in their homes, even those living outside their states, and they will travel all the way back to go and vote. The turnout will be tremendous. South west states are dissappointingly not for Jonathan except states like Ekiti, but they do have a low voter population. Jonathan is in for a big surprise in Lagos because many of his supporters may not bother to vote due to some of the factors you listed, plus intimidation by APC supporters.

eliment:
I was so socked yesterday when a PDP supporter admitted Buhari will win if election holds.

Even the PDP knows GEJ has no chance of winning if the elections will be free, fear and credible.

Change in coming__ sai Buhari

I see...

You were "socked' that a supposed PDP supporter told you that Buhari would win if elections were conducted, abi?

So your supporter friend now has the power of clairvoyance, no be so?

Come ogbeni, how old are you?

maestroferddi:
I see...

You were "socked' that a supposed PDP supporter told you that Buhari would win if elections were conduct, abi?

So your supporter friend now has the power of clairvoyance, no be so?

Come ogbeni, how old are you?

stop deceiving your self mister man, the handwriting is on the wall for everyone to see except those that want to be deceived by whatever sentiment.

That you are part of them is none of my business, all I need is power be taken away from this clueless man

stronger:


First of all, kudos for actually attempting to counter-analyse unlike others that just come and insult a decent job and go.

Next, I will concede that Nasarawa might be a swing state. But don't take Edo state out of the swing states o. Big mistake! People make the mistake of lumping Edo state with other S/S states. Error! Apart from the fact that the north of edo has a large muslim population (and religion plays a part sadly), it's not for no reason that it is an APC state! The people of Edo state HATE THE PDP! largely because of Lucky Igbinedion and Tony Anenih! Fact! The only reason it is not an outright WIn for BUHARI is because Oshiomole's popularity has declined. At the peak of Oshio Baba's popularity, GEJ would have been camping there like he is doing in Lagos!

Now, to KADUNA state! This was sooo hilarious!!!

Unlike The S/S and S/W where OUR SON will work for GEJ and osibanjo respectively, Kaduna state will be overwhelmingly won by BUHARI! I can place a bet on this.

Didn't you hear of the catastrophe that was the Kaduna rally? The deputy governor shouted to the LOC to GO AND BRING THE CROWD! Sambo was thoroughly embarassed! The stadium was empty and the people there were (a) paid money (there is pictoral evidence) and (b) The others kept shouting SAI BUHARI that they had to chase them out of the stadium I am surprised you didn't know about this. See link
http://www.punchng.com/news/poor-turnout-as-jonathan-takes-campaign-to-kaduna/

The IMMENSE POPULARITY of EL-RUFAI in Kaduna also means he will take the governorship post. In addition, the Southern Kaduna votes have been further hurt by GEJ's embarassment of Agwai!

Ah, guy, I can write an essay on kaduna o. No need to argue. PM your fellow PDP guys quietly and they will tell you what's up!

If you need further clarification I can help you!

Hehe, you are funny!! First I'm from Edo state and not only do I visit the cities regularly I engage with ruralites there a lot in the course of my work. Jonathan would do better in Edo state than he would do in parts of Delta. Right now, Edo state hates APC more than PDP. Oshiomole's second tenure has been a gigantic disaster. Nothing, I repeat absolutely nothing is currently happening and the APC is in disarray in Edo state. Maybe you didn't notice but the only state Buhari didn't hold a rally in the entire country was Edo State. Edo North muslims would give Buhari some votes but the population there is the smallest in the state: less than 10%. Its going to be more like 70:30 in favour of Jonathan.

As per Southern Kaduna, your ignorance again is explicit. Igbos are not the majority inhabitants of Southern Kaduna state. Yes, a lot of Igbos dwell in the south of Kaduna city, but that is different from southern Kaduna state which constitutes almost half the population of the state and is dominated by Christians. Southern Kaduna will vote in the same pattern as Plateau and Taraba as these are the states where religious tensions are strongest.

mandarin:


Thanks sir for your thoughts. I was involved in a research recently and wish to state that there are facts behind these figures and estimates.I see it as purely academic and not to raise undue hopes for party supporters or mislead people's expectations.
You can assume but. I think the time is near for this result and I can bet in a free and fair election ,at least 85% accuracy.
Kaduna is going to be different and Southern Kaduna which has a huge population of Igbo and Yoruba and ethnic groups of Southern Kaduna will majorly have igbo voters in support of Jonathan.Religion has no serious play in this because of Osinbajo, call and ask the Christian community there. El Rufai is damn too popular. The truth is this election will defy many long standing ethnic and religious sentiments.
Secondly, [size=13pt]in the best case scenario for GEJ is a 30% votes there which alongside fair performances in Taraba, Nasarawa and Adamawa will give maybe a total 20% of votes cast to GEJ,[/size] now, that will be a good performance for GEJ because Buhari will win massive in remaining states and get up to at least 40% in Benue and Plateau. I just left Kogi and Edo are swing state and not Nasarawa.
So if you agree that voters turn out will be a huge factor in this election let me know because the number of votes in the southwest may nit be impressive in Ondo and Ekiti, maybe both of them can give a total of a million votes.Its difficult to say for certainty who will win in both states and sitting governors and Osinbajo factors will be at play at varying degrees.
if they chose the path of ethnicity because of a Yoruba VP its a great victory for Buhari.I actually believe Edo will be shared while GEJ will win in all of East and Niger Delta.

The bolded exposed the degree of your ignorance on Northern politics. Just to let you know, Northern Christians are much more likely to vote Jonathan than Niger Deltans. And the reason is not thier love for Jonathan but thier hatred for Fulani domination!

ha shoki
ha shoki
ha shoki
shoki di shoki

otuoke straight
sai GMB
sai baba

PapaBrowne:
The problem with your analysis is in the error of your assumptions.

First error is in placing Kaduna, Adamawa and Nasarawa firmly under Buhari.
Thats an apparent sign that you aren't in tune with Northern politics. You would have had a better analysis if you used historical data to support you postulations.
Kaduna is the best definition of a swing state. Two factors would count for GEJ: 1)Southern Kaduna. 2)The VP & the incumbent. In 2011, Kaduna gave GEJ 1.2m and GMB 1.3m. So lumping Kaduna in the same mould as Kano, Bauchi, Borno and the likes is an error already.
Nasarawa has an APC governor, but would have a PDP victory because of the Ethno Religious politics present in the state. Adamawa would be pretty close to call but a greater likelihood the PDP would hold sway.

Second error is in your swing states assumption. Edo & Taraba.
Edo is safe, very safe for PDP. In 2011, PDP won by a wide margin. At that time, Oshiomole was very popular. In 2015, Oshiomole has become so unpopular that he would lose an today to even to the very unpopular Igbinedion. So while Edo north would give Buhari some votes, majority of the votes would definitely go to PDP. Taraba is PDP and would give GEJ better margins than any state in the SW.

The best statistical analysis would come from lumping states with similar voting patterns together and according them percentage weights.
Better still, do a state by state run and award percentages based on both historical data and current realities.

Good and precise points. The OP will open his mouth after March 28 and won't be able to close it. GEJ's victory has been perfected in the heavenlies.

That is just it..


Change all the way

Can't see Jonathan getting less than 80% of the votes in the SE (at least I'm pretty sure about Anambra). Even APC candidates for the National Assembly do not mention the name of Buhari when they hold their rallies.

stronger:
OP mandarin

Good job! You actually took time do some in-depth analysis. In fact you even assumed a 50-50 in lagos (when we know that GMB sweeps lagos convincingly) but of course you still arrive at the result WE ALL KNOW!! BUHARI WINS, whichever way you look at it!

GEJites know this, but they don't want to tell themselves the truth. Also, they want to keep getting dollars from the maga.

So please hide this post so that some people don't get HBP!

PS. Notice that all the GEJites that will come will NOT intelligently counter your analysis. . they will yell things like;
trash. . GEJ til 68585958, OP you dey mad, Buhari is boko haram etc. Don't be offended when they say these things. It's in their nature.

Once again, good job!

SAI BUHARI!!

Nice piece of advise for our intelligent OP. Please mods I take God beg you move this to front page