With the presidential election just around the corner, our correspondents write that the battle, which is a straight one between President Goodluck Jonathan and General Muhammadu Buhari, may spring some surprises
As Nigerians, nay the world, wait for the March 28 presidential election and the 10 competing political parties putting finishing touches to their strategies, the actual contest, political watchers have submitted, is between the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party and Maj. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (retd.) of the All Progressives Congress.
How would the scenario look like in the country’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, when the battle is fought, won and lost?
Abia
President Jonathan of the PDP is expected to win the presidential poll in Abia State as his party remains the dominant one there. The PDP’s strong base in the state coupled with the position of Governor Theodore Orji as the Coordinator of Jonathan’s Campaign Organisation in the South-East zone has further boosted Jonathan’s chances at the poll. Abia parades an army of people and accomplished Nigerians who are of the PDP family and they have been working assiduously to deliver their various localities to the President. Some of them include: Nigeria’s High Commissioner to Canada, Chief Ojo Maduekwe; former PDP National Chairman, Vincent Ogbulafor; former Senate President Adulphus Wabara; Minister of Finance, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala; Gen. Ike Nwachukwu ( retd); among a host of others.
Jonathan’s marital tie with Abia State is also expected to boost his chances. The mother of the First Lady, Patience Jonathan, hailed from Abia and the state enjoys a very warm relationship with the First Family.
Abuja
Abuja, the seat of power, should ordinarily be the star on the crown of the eventual winner of the Presidential elections. However, the territory which some refer to as a city of civil servants is likely to be almost evenly split between Jonathan and Buhari.
Senator Philip Aduda (PDP) is expected to lead other public and political office holders to mobilise votes for the President because the FCT Minister, Senator Bala Mohammed; would be required to go back to Bauchi where he hails from to join the governor and the party’s national chairman, Adamu Mua’azu to campaign for the President. Aduda, however, has to contend with a former political opponent, Adamu Sidi-Ali, who apart from contesting for a Senate seat is also mobilising support for Buhari and the APC. That Abuja is where the President has lived for six years counts for a lot but the large number of northerners in the city is also a plus for Buhari. Verdict: It’s too close to call.
Adamawa
It is a state of political gladiators and all of them will want to make a point. The state boasts of ex-Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the APC; Buhari’s wife; former Chairman of the PDP, Bamanga Tukur; ex-EFCC Chairman, Nuhu Ribadu, among others.
It would have been an easy ride for the PDP, but for the Boko Haram menace that has claimed many lives.
The opinion of political analysts in the state is that despite the successes recorded in Mubi and many other towns, many indigenes are not impressed because they believe that the President launched the late war on the insurgents to score a political point.
Hence, it looks like a tight race between Buhari and Jonathan despite the fact that PDP won the state in 2011.
Akwa Ibom
Both the PDP and the APC are popular in Akwa Ibom State. Each of these two political parties exercises dominance in some sections of the state.
The people of Oro ethnic nationality (the largest ethnic group in Akwa Ibom South Senatorial District with five local government areas) are mainly against the PDP.
The people, who embrace APC hold that if Oro continues to remain in the PDP, the probability for them to produce a governor in the next 40 years will be slim.
Other areas with strong support APC base are Uruan; Ibeno; Ikot Abasi; Esit Eket; Abak Federal Constituency otherwise known as Abak Five; Itu; Ini; Ikono. The party has also encroached into areas like Ikot Ekpene; Essien Udim, where the PDP has strongholds.
However, Governor Godswill Akpabio who is an ardent loyalist of Jonathan is expected to deliver the state to PDP coupled with the South-East support for Jonathan.
Anambra
In 2011, President Jonathan of the PDP polled 1,145,169 million votes or 98.8 per cent of the total votes cast in Anambra State.
From the statistics, Anambra gave Jonathan the highest proportion of votes in the country. His closest rival was the Congress Progressives Congress candidate, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, who polled 4,223 votes.
The situation on the ground shows that Jonathan still has an edge over Buhari and will very likely win the presidential election in the state.
The sentiments that worked well for Jonathan in 2011 are still very much around. But the party has lost a lot of followers, who though may not move over to vote Buhari, may remain indifferent.
The factors playing in favour of Jonathan include the incumbency factor. The party in power in the state, the All Progressives Grand Alliance, has also adopted Jonathan as its presidential candidate.
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