President Goodluck Jonathan, the
presidential candidate of the
Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, and
his major rival, Muhammadu
Buhari of the All Progressives
Congress, APC, have remarkably
rewritten former assumptions
putting the contest into what has
become the most competitive
election since the return of
democratic rule in 1999.
It is a battle being fought on every
inch of Nigerian territory. Buhari,
who in his former contests
practically ignored several areas, is
going out meeting and soliciting for
votes from all over the country.
Besides the strategic meeting with
governors, he is also expected to
address the concerns of traders in
Onitsha. President Jonathan, on the
other hand, has practically laid
siege on the Southwest with the
prospect of winning over the
people of the region. A state by
state detail of the battle on the
ground is presented hereunder.
By Our Reporters
Anambra State
2011: Jonathan 1,145,169 Buhari
4,223
Anambra was a state Jonathan won
with more than 99 per cent in 2011
with 1,145,169 votes. The president
is believably headed for another
victory in the state in 2015, but only
fools will believe that the president
could get the kind of victory he got
four years ago.
The momentum for Buhari has been
tempered in Anambra by internal
divisions within the Buhari
campaign especially around the
personality of the leaders of the
campaign. Senator Chris Ngige, who
is leading the campaign in the state,
is not in the good books of a
handful of many other supporters.
Dr. Jonathan is also boosted by the
unqualified support he is receiving
from the All Progressives Grand
Alliance, APGA government in the
state. Dr. Jonathan would win
handsomely in the state, Buhari
would not get 25 per cent but the
bad news for the Jonathan campaign
is that the swelled vote would not
be obtained given the introduction
of the card reader.
Ebonyi
2011: Jonathan 480,592 Buhari 1,025
Jonathan got more than 99.5 per
cent of the votes he got in 2011 and
was helped by the fact that Buhari
practically did not have an
organisation in the state and the
state opposition leader, Senator
Julius Ucha was drained of resources.
However, with the reinvention of the
opposition and the internal discord
in the PDP that led to the movement
of Governor Martin Elechi’s
supporters to Labour Party, the APC
could be tempted to smell an
opportunity. However, chances of
that were as at weekend not viable
given recent efforts by the president
to keep Elechi from being
impeached.
Unless Elechi decides to play a
rascal, Buhari will not get 25 per
cent in Ebonyi
IMO
Nigerian President Goodluck
Jonathan AFP PHOTO
Dr. Jonathan got almost the entire
1,406, 289 votes in Imo State in
2011. However, the defeat of Ikedi
Ohakim in the governorship election
that took place about the same time
by 290,496 votes to 336,859 votes in
the same constituency has led many
to believe that the presidential
election results may have been
bloated. Given that less than
600,000 persons voted in the
governorship election has resulted in
questions about where the voters in
the presidential election came from.
With the opposition in control of the
state, Imo looks the brightest
opportunity for Buhari in the
Southeast, but he would yet be lucky
to smile home with 40 per cent of
the votes.
Enugu
Jonathan won here with 882,144
votes to Buhari’s 3753 while Ribadu
went home with 1,755 votes.
The major players in the state are
Senator Ike Ekweremadu, the deputy
president of the Senate and
Governor Sullivan Chime who are
both on the surface rooting for the
president. But given the wounds
that the governor received and the
fact that he has no stake in the
presidential election he could decide
to pay back the president with bad
coins so that both of them could
retire from public life together.
Also to the advantage of Buhari is
the presence of Father Ejike Mbaka,
who has openly endorsed Buhari
against the president.
The prospects of Buhari getting 25
per cent in Enugu are not
impossible despite the efforts of
Ekweremadu.
ABIA
Jonathan got 1,175,954 to the 3,608
votes Buhari received in 2011.
Though with the introduction of the
card reader the prospects of
Jonathan getting that many votes
have been seriously reduced, but
there is little doubt he would easily
trounce Buhari in Abia. The closest
opposition is APGA which has
interestingly adopted Jonathan as its
presidential candidate.
The factors against Buhari could only
be sentiments against the outgoing
administration and the slowdown of
the economy which has affected
businesses in the state. Still, Buhari
is not expected to get 25 per cent in
Abia.
Remarkably, unlike the situation in
many other states where losers in
the PDP governorship primaries
defected or went underground, many
of those who lost out in the PDP
including Emeka Wogu are fanatically
working for the PDP.
DELTA
Jonathan won here with 1, 378, 851
in 2011. However, since then a
number of political shifts and
miscalculations have been made to
cause a radical alteration of the
permutations.
While the PDP remains almost
unified the humiliation the
governor, Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan
suffered even after surrendering his
senatorial ticket and inability to
position his own man as governor
has led some to believe he could
seek vengeance. However, the
governor has almost remained
steadfastl in support of the Jonathan
project.
Anyway, other issues including the
reported overbearing attitude of
Jonathan’s Ijaw kinsmen which has
led to the repeated postponement of
the groundbreaking of the EPZ in
the state, and the sidelining of the
Urhobo may hurt Jonathan .
Buhari is, however, not helped by
the fact that his governorship
candidate in the state, Otega
Emerhor was not universally
accepted by the party leaders. That
nonetheless, Jonathan is no longer
looked at as “our brother” by the
non-Ijaws, a situation that has put
Buhari in good look to get at least
30 per cent of the votes in Delta.
EDO
2011: Jonathan 542, 173 Buhari
17,795
The results in 2011 would be of little
consequence in 2015 given that
Governor Adams Oshiomhole
practically sat on the fence that
year. In 2015 the comrade governor
has taken the Buhari project as a
personal one. The challenges that
have faced the Jonathan
administration make it a tempting
ground for Buhari to pull away
victory. However, the PDP is
marshalling several personalities
including Chief Tony Anenih, Chief
Tom Ikimi among others to help the
president. Edo is too close to call.
BAYELSA
504,811 691.
Buhari got only 691 votes last time.
He is destined to do better given
the internal discord in the state
chapter of the PDP but it would be a
foolish guess to say he could score
more than 5 per cent of the votes in
the state.
CROSS RIVER
2011 Jonathan 709,382 Buhari 4,002
Not much of change is expected for
Buhari in Cross River given the
absence of a strong internal party in
the state. Jonathan should score a
minimum of 80 per cent of the votes
in Cross River. However, like in many
other states the total number of
votes is expected to be suppressed
by the anti-rigging device, card
reader.
AKWA IBOM
2011: Jonathan 1,165,629 Buhari
5,348
Jonathan is expected to be seriously
challenged in Akwa Ibom by the
support Buhari is getting from the
machine transferred to him by the
APC governorship candidate, Umana
Umana. The popularity Umana is
getting and the largely unexpressed
attitude of the Ibibio population
towards Governor Godswill Akpabio
would pose serious dangers for the
president.
If the election goes smoothly, the
president will win but Buhari would
get more than 25 per cent of the
votes.
RIVERS
2011 Jonathan 1, 817, 762 Buhari
13,182
This is where the president’s
political problems started and it
would come to a head in six days
time as the president again seeks
the support of his in-laws.
The PDP has traditionally harvested
an approximate two million votes in
presidential and governorship
elections in Rivers State and that
was when the PDP was in control of
the Government House, Port
Harcourt, where many of the winning
strategies were formulated. But with
the APC now in control of the
Government House the PDP’s
leverage has been greatly
diminished.
The prospects of Governor Chibuke
Amaechi delivering Rivers to Buhari
are daunting as the president is
expected to win again, but with a
significantly suppressed number of
votes. The votes will count if all goes
well and the traditional two million
votes will not be available to the
PDP candidate. Buhari will smile
home and be satisfied with at least
30 per cent of the votes.
LAGOS
Jonathan 1, 281, 688; Buhari 189,
983; Ribadu 427, 000
Buhari took third in 2011 largely on
account of the support Ribadu got
from the APC machine in Lagos. But
with the same support now actively
being shifted to Buhari and given
the challenges of the president and
the Osinbajo factor, the president is
in danger of losing Lagos State to
Buhari.
The president was politically shrewd
to push forward a popular
governorship candidate in the
person of Jimi Agbaje, however, that
is not going to be of much help to
him given the erosion of the Islamic
label on Buhari and the momentum
he has received. Lagos is too close
to call.
The president would be helped in
Lagos by the sentiments of the vast
Igbo population, majority of who are
chorusing for him.
OGUN
This is a state the president won in
2011, but he would need a miracle
to help him overcome the challenges
against him in 2015. Besides the
strong support Buhari is getting
from Governor Ibikunle Amosun, the
president is not helped by the
disarray that is in the state chapter
of the PDP.
Even though he is not much of an
asset on voting day, former President
Olusegun Obasanjo is from Ogun
State and would do everything to
ensure the rejection of his one time
political godson.
Buhari is projected to win Ogun
convincingly and the president
would be happy going away with 40
per cent of the votes.
OSUN
This was the only southern state the
president lost in 2011 and is headed
towards the same direction in 2015
despite the increasing challenges
facing the Rauf Aregbesola
administration in Osogbo, notably
the growing difficulties in payment
of salaries.
The APC is, however, telling whoever
cares to listen that many of the
challenges they are having are
coming from Jonathan in Abuja.
Dr. Jonathan is projected to score
about 35 per cent of the votes in the
state.
OYO
Jonathan 484, 758 Buhari 92, 396
Ribadu 252, 240
Jonathan won in Oyo with about 52
per cent of the votes in 2011 and
that was when a PDP government
was in office. With the reverse the
case now and the challenges in
office around the president, his
ability to get the plurality of 2011 is
in serious doubt. The president’s
chances were not helped last week
after a senior chief in Ibadan came
out to endorse Buhari. Besides, the
PDP seems to be doing well in
covering its internal fractures, but
that fact is obvious to many people.
EKITI
The chances of the president in Ekiti
have been boosted by the fanatical
support he is receiving from
Governor Ayodele Fayose. However,
the support is almost matched by
the recent reconciliation between
Dr. Fayemi and Hon. Opeyemi
Bamidele who are both working for
Buhari. Nevertheless, there are still
mutterings that the old progressives
allegedly shut out by Dr. Fayemi
while in office are still to be fully
reintegrated into the APC.
Whatever, Ekiti is too close to call.
ONDO
This is a state that ordinarily should
go to Dr. Jonathan given the
dominance of Governor Segun
Mimiko in the affairs of the state.
However, as with many second term
office holders, the governor has
caught the syndrome and his
political invincibility once the
subject of political folklore is no
longer taken for granted. Dr.
Jonathan will win handsomely in
Ondo, but Buhari is in good position
to get 25 per cent.
KWARA
The choice of a relatively unpopular
governorship candidate has not
done the PDP good in Kwara. Many
of the governorship aspirants who
were in better position to Marshall
the votes for the president are
looking from the sidelines and so,
giving opportunity for Senator Bukola
Saraki to handsomely deliver Kwara
to the APC presidential candidate.
BENUE
Is a state that Buhari has never won
in a presidential election, however,
the troubles of the PDP
administration and the choice by the
APC of a grassroots governorship
candidate has opened up the state
to battle. Many voters could
translate their fury at the non
payment of salaries to the president.
Benue is too close to call.
PLATEAU
This is a traditional PDP state and
Jonathan is expected to win
convincingly. However, Buhari would
for the first time make an inroad as
he taps on the groundswell of
misgivings against Governor Jonah
Jang. Such grudges include irregular
payment of salaries and the
governor’s decision to discard the
zoning principle in the choice of his
successor.
Many leading political stakeholders
on the plateau are seriously
embittered by the outgoing
governor’s decision to enthrone
someone from his senatorial
constituency and his Berom tribe as
his successor. Should the misgivings
translate fully into votes, Jonathan
could be in trouble.
NIGER
Jonathan lost here in 2011 and
despite the alleged schemes of some
powerful generals in the state to
stop Buhari and return the
president, it would be a difficult
task. The failure of the outgoing
governor to adequately deliver
democracy dividends is, of course, no
help.
Governor Babangida Aliyu would be
desperate for Jonathan to win
despite his assertions in the past
that the president signed a one
term agreement. Victory for Jonathan
would position Dr. Aliyu to run the
presidential contest in 2019.
Given the judicial interpretation of
the senatorial election that took
place in Aliyu’s senatorial
constituency that was won by the
APC, the chances of Buhari winning
are convincing.
NASARAWA
The president won in Nasarawa last
time, but that was when a PDP
governor was in office. Now with an
APC governor in office, the
challenges against the president are
obvious. The unity in the PDP was
recently broken with the defection of
Labran Maku to APGA. But that
nonetheless, Nasarawa is too close
to call.
KADUNA
The president lost his running
mate’s state last time. The same
configuration is in place the only
difference is that Buhari has a
better organisation in 2015 than he
had in 2011.
Kaduna, as ever, remains too close to
call and it is expected that people
may vote according to religious lines.
Kaduna too close to call.
KANO
Buhari won handsomely here in 2011
and is expected to do the same
thing. The president’s recruitment of
his 2011 rival, Shekarau would do
little to change the tide against him.
KATSINA
This is Buhari’s homeland and he is
expected to sail comfortably to
victory here. Jonathan is not
expected to get much from here.
JIGAWA
Governor Sule Lamido is working
seriously to deliver Jonathan in
Jigawa. In 2011, Jonathan narrowly
missed getting 25 per cent in
Jigawa. It is possible for the
president to get that figure this
time.
KEBBI
2011: Jonathan 369, 198; Buhari 501,
453
The president did well by scoring
more than 25 per cent in Kebbi last
time and he is projected to get
about the same figure this time.
ZAMFARA
2011: Jonathan 238, 980 Buhari 624,
515
Buhari defeated Jonathan without
much of an organisation in 2011 in
Zamfara and he is expected to do
the same this time.
SOKOTO
2011: Jonathan 309, 057; Buhari 540,
769
In 2011, Jonathan was helped by the
sentiments of the ruling PDP in the
state. But given the discord that
followed and the parting of ways, the
president would have to face the
serious challenge to get the 36 per
cent he scored last time in the
state.
BAUCHI
Jonathan 258,000 Buhari 1, 300,000.
This was the state where the
president’s convoy was pelted with
stones and in the account of
Governor Isa Yuguda, those who
pelted him were renegade PDP
members.
The president’s recent enthusiasm in
other parts of the country is not
helped by the division in the ranks
of the PDP largely between the
governor and the FCT minister,
Senator Bala Mohammed. Though
they claim to be working together,
there are underground insinuations
that one party is not putting all his
eggs in one basket.
ADAMAWA
2011: Jonathan 508,314 Buhari
344,526
The president’s victory here in 2011
could ordinary be replicated given
the fact that unlike 2011 when he
did it Ribadu, a son of the soil is
not running. However, the Boko
Haram factor is an issue for many
people who are questioning the
rationale it took the president until
election time to decisively rid the
state of the terrorists.
Adamawa is too close to call.
GOMBE
2011: Jonathan 290,347 Buhari 459,
898
Buhari won in 2011 despite the
presence of a strong governor,
Danjuma Goje who at that time was
against him. With Goje now seriously
backing him, it ordinarily would be a
plus for the APC candidate. However,
the incumbent governor, Ibarahim
Damkwambo is the Northeast
coordinator for Jonathan and is
expected to put up a hard battle for
the president especially as his re-
election battle comes up in two
weeks time after the presidential
election.
Buhari is expected to win and
Jonathan should get more than 25
per cent.
TARABA
2011: Jonathan 451,354 Buhari
257,986
Jonathan won here in 2011 and is
expected to win again despite the
internal divisions that have lately
arisen within the state chapter of
the PDP.
YOBE
2011 Jonathan 117,128 Buhari 337,
537
Buhari won Yobe and is expected to
win again. Sentiments against the
president’s handling of the Boko
Haram crisis will not be a good
omen for the president in Yobe.
However, one serious challenge for
Buhari is the perceived failures of
the incumbent governor in providing
morale to the people of the state in
the face of the crisis.
BORNO
2011: Jonathan 207, 075 Buhari
909,763
Buhari won handsomely in 2011 and
is expected to do the same despite
the changed permutations that have
seen the former governor, Senator
Ali Sheriff (SAS) cross over to support
the president in 2015.
www.vanguardngr.com/2015/03/polls-how-jonathan-buhari-will-battle-for-votes/