merry02:
Ur prediction is wrng***buhari can't win Ondo,kaduna state

adioolayi:
Passingshot good analysis you've got here....I don't think you are bias. My own little contribution is just that VOTERS TURNOUT will be key in this election. Using Southwest as a case study in 2011...turnout average was around 39% in all the six states. Although, the moral is high this time around, and if we are to go by popular opinion in who to vote for in the SOUTHWEST of today... #GMB has it locked down...Including Ekiti (I was at EKSU convocation last week). I think all permutations still favours #GMB

sartorius:
@ olamieseun I didnt say Gej would win osun state, but he would berfom better than projected. Most of the pundits are really underestimating Gej. Apc was fresh in osun state in 2011. Aregbe had cult following then , that favoured ribadu. workers are currently owed 5 months although its expected that gmb would win but not bythat margin.

Johnpaul88:
Nice predictions, Passingshot! I hope it works out fine for the People's General and we his indefatigable supporters

Hardaysheenar:
.....am in southwest too...Osun state specifically....don't b surprised if Jonathan wins here

AbidemiA:
Based on the data I collected from this link http://www.nigerianmonitor.com/2015/03/24/inec-releases-statistics-of-pvc-collected-in-all-36-states-see-list/ , with the information/data that I have gathered from the supporters of GEJ and GMB on Nairaland and Facebook. I generated the attached file with the following assumptions:

1 All voters that have collected their PVC will vote.
2 All votes will be legitimate and shared by GEJ and GMB only.

Note:
My predictions are more in favour of GEJ than GMB.

You can download the Excel sheet from this link : https://www.nairaland.com/2218820/analysis-voters-registration-possible-outcome

Antivirus92:
@ useless op...how many anambra States do we have in Nigeria? cos d anambra state I am from don't know what APC means

PassingShot:


I am confident that we shall win even with wider margin if the election is free, fair and credible.

PassingShot:


So in your right mind, you could believe that GEJ will win in all of SW and NC states. And even at that GMB still has more votes!

You're a clown! No offence intended.

chrisooblog:
@op good one but you forgot to give overall total. plus you were too generous to GEJ in niger state all the same great analysis. do mind doing one for senate, HOR, governorship elections?

cKaiser:


I like his predictions which is the worst case scenario that even FFK would agree is generous to Jonathan

You have to factor in things like extreme bribery on election day by PDP and voters intimidation by soldiers

WHen analysing issues atimes its better to start from the worst case scenario

In this case GMB still wins

PassingShot:


No sir. GMB doesn't win in his prediction even though he has more votes because he only wins 11 states.

PassingShot:


No sir. GMB doesn't win in his prediction even though he has more votes because he only wins 11 states and didn't get 25% or more in 24 states.

cKaiser:


GMB has over 25% in all NE, NW, SW and NC states which makes it 25 states already. Assuming worst case scenario he doesnt make 25% elsewhere

ABIOLAXYZ:
REASONS Y I CHANGE MY DECISION ON BUHARI.

1.THE PROBLEM OF NIGERIA START WITH NORTHERNERS...ALL THOSE USELESS HEAD OF STATE

2.NORTH GREEDINESS TO ALWAYS RULE.LOOKING AT ALL NIGERIA LEADERS,MAJORITY OF THEM ARE NORTHERNERS

3.THE THIEVES SURROUNDING GMB... PEOPLE LIKE ABS,TINUBU WHICH ARE CONFIRMED POLITICAL THIEVES ARE HIS LOYALISTS

4. WE NEED AGILE LEADER NOT AGE DISADVANTAGE LEADER ...

#Y ALWAYS D NORTH

PassingShot:


GMB won KD in 2011 with no any structure. So he will win there easily in 2015.

Ondo is a battle ground state, so I tip GMB to win it by 55% just as I gave another battleground state, Edo to GEJ.

IVORY2009:


the elections will be full of surprises, you can not use passed records to determine the voting pattern of an election, the states GEJ won in last elections, he might loose this time around, likewise GMB, most of the states he won in 2011, he might loose this time tooo, the best thing to do is to sit back and wait till 29th of March, and not predictions.

PassingShot:


I don't need reasons why you support GEJ or why you withdrew your support from GMB. No one needs it actually here.

Please discuss the topic or leave the thread.

maestroferddi:
Stop wasting your time.

The day of reckoning is less than two days away.

We shall see who are the better analysts.

Buhari would not win this election. You can always quote me.

ziccoit:
@PassingShot, brilliant analysis and I agree with you except your over generosity to PDP in SW. I'm on ground too in SW. I feel GMB is going to put up better show in the SW states. I even tagged SW as the burial ground of PDP/GEJ in this election. Is like a movie titled "SW against GEJ". People are expressively and palpably angry with GEJ and are ready to reject him massively at poll. I spoke with the people who agreed to vote for the first time in their lives just to ensure GEJ would not come back.

Obiagelli:
Another fantastic analysis by PassingShot, well presented.

I wonder why threads like this never hit the front page.

PassingShot:


Thanks Obiagelli. It will not make front page for some reason but the one by Mr. Protection which was a regurgitation of 2011 election result was pushed there. No qualms as my intention is to see how much the final result will taly or deviate from this exercise.

Hope you're ready to vote out Jonathan tomorrow and hope that you're helping deliver your household and street for the Change.