ziccoit:
@PassingShot, brilliant analysis and I agree with you except your over generosity to PDP in SW. I'm on ground too in SW. I feel GMB is going to put up better show in the SW states. I even tagged SW as the burial ground of PDP/GEJ in this election. Is like a movie titled "SW against GEJ". People are expressively and palpably angry with GEJ and are ready to reject him massively at poll. I spoke with the people who agreed to vote for the first time in their lives just to ensure GEJ would not come back.

I was only curious to see how and where they can manufacture a win from. I know GEJ cannot get 40% of votes from SW.

Op. You try sha. But you shouldn't be too surprised if GEJ does better in the North, especially the NE, than you have projected here. Also, kill the idea that Buhari will get up to 30% of the votes in any SE state.

WisdomFlakes:


How come FFK isn't as confident as you are? Going as far accusing Jega of being compromised. Even Jonathan himself is not as confident as you are. Your bravado is impressive but you better not deceive yourself, that way you'll be able to better manage the agony of defeat that is about to envelope you and your ilk.

Calm down and wait for Saturday na, shooo.

dmyke:
Op. You try sha. But you shouldn't be too surprised if GEJ does better in the North, especially the NE, than you have projected here. Also, kill the idea that Buhari will get up to 30% of the votes in any SE state.

He will surely get above 25% in Imo.

Would be surprised if Jonathan gets 30% in Kwara.

OP was very generous to Jonathan all round

nuclearboy:
Would be surprised if Jonathan gets 30% in Kwara.

OP was very generous to Jonathan all round

It's deliberate. I know GEJ cannot win this election if it's free, fair and credible.

PassingShot:


Jonathan wins in Osun? Kill that idea mister.

Lool, GEJ who didn't win Osun even @ the peak of his popularity in 2011.

50 hrs 2 go can Nigerians do this?

ABIOLAXYZ:
REASONS Y I CHANGE MY DECISION ON BUHARI.

1.THE PROBLEM OF NIGERIA START WITH NORTHERNERS...ALL THOSE USELESS HEAD OF STATE

2.NORTH GREEDINESS TO ALWAYS RULE.LOOKING AT ALL NIGERIA LEADERS,MAJORITY OF THEM ARE NORTHERNERS

3.THE THIEVES SURROUNDING GMB... PEOPLE LIKE ABS,TINUBU WHICH ARE CONFIRMED POLITICAL THIEVES ARE HIS LOYALISTS

4. WE NEED AGILE LEADER NOT AGE DISADVANTAGE LEADER ...

#Y ALWAYS D NORTH

get da Bleep out of this thread so mature minds could discuss issues.

ABIOLAXYZ:
REASONS Y I CHANGE MY DECISION ON BUHARI.

1.THE PROBLEM OF NIGERIA START WITH NORTHERNERS...ALL THOSE USELESS HEAD OF STATE

2.NORTH GREEDINESS TO ALWAYS RULE.LOOKING AT ALL NIGERIA LEADERS,MAJORITY OF THEM ARE NORTHERNERS

3.THE THIEVES SURROUNDING GMB... PEOPLE LIKE ABS,TINUBU WHICH ARE CONFIRMED POLITICAL THIEVES ARE HIS LOYALISTS

4. WE NEED AGILE LEADER NOT AGE DISADVANTAGE LEADER ...

#Y ALWAYS D NORTH

you be pdp , haba no need for tori

honestly, this is a good analysis.well done.

Ur prediction is wrng***buhari can't win Ondo,kaduna state

Good analysis op. But then, I think you were a little generous to GMB in the south east and a little generous to GEJ in the north west and some states in the north central.

EUROFIGHTERR:


Jonathan will defeat buhari in the SW. You can refer to this post after Saturday.

Nuff said.

lol! This is a big joke. Dream on.

This is a balanced analysis. But the notion that christians are more than muslims in population in taraba , and religion might be the determining factor in the state is what i'm not comfortable with. Taraba and Ekiti may as well go to GMB.

merry02:
Ur prediction is wrng***buhari can't win Ondo,kaduna state

GMB won KD in 2011 with no any structure. So he will win there easily in 2015.

Ondo is a battle ground state, so I tip GMB to win it by 55% just as I gave another battleground state, Edo to GEJ.

Caseless:
This is a balanced analysis. But the notion that christians are more than muslims in population , and religion might be the determining factor in taraba is what i'm not comfortable with. Taraba and Ekiti may as well go to GMB.

Both scenario are possible but I just tried to share the too-close-to-call states between them. E.G, I gave Ondo, Adamawa, Kogi and Nassarawa to GMB and Edo, Benue, Taraba and Ekiti to GEJ albeit with higher percentage.

seunmsg:
Good analysis op. But then, I think you were a little generous to GMB in the south east and a little generous to GEJ in the north west and some states in the north central.

The only place in the SE I was generous to GMB is Imo and that's because of Rochas there. Also, unlike 2011, I do not expect a 95% or anything close this time around for any of them.

tp10:
honestly, this is a good analysis.well done.

Thanks.

dmyke:
Op. You try sha. But you shouldn't be too surprised if GEJ does better in the North, especially the NE, than you have projected here. Also, kill the idea that Buhari will get up to 30% of the votes in any SE state.

I have Buhari getting just 16% of the general votes in the SE. Is that too much of a projection? Surely not!

The only state in the SE I gave him 30% is Imo and that's because of Rochas. It's between 85% and 90% in other SE states.

PassingShot:


GMB won KD in 2011 with no any structure. So he will win there easily in 2015.

Ondo is a battle ground state, so I tip GMB to win it by 55% just as I gave another battleground state, Edo to GEJ.

Don't mind that guy.

PassingShot:


The only place in the SE I was generous to GMB is Imo and that's because of Rochas there. Also, unlike 2011, I do not expect a 95% or anything close this time around for any of them.

I don't see GMB getting more than 10-15% in any south east state, Imo inclusive.

seunmsg:


I don't see GMB getting more than 10-15% in any south east state, Imo inclusive.

Ok, let's wait and see.

passingshot your analysis is fair. Buhari cant get 30 percent in Imo. GEJ would do much better in Ondo, lagos, osun, ondo and the north central than you have projected. Buhari would perform worse than you have projected in the north east due to insecurity and electoral fraud. 6 weeks has changed a lot

@op good one but you forgot to give overall total. plus you were too generous to GEJ in niger state all the same great analysis. do mind doing one for senate, HOR, governorship elections?

PassingShot:


Both scenario are possible but I just tried to share the too-close-to-call states between them. E.G, I gave Ondo, Adamawa, Kogi and Nassarawa to GMB and Edo, Benue, Taraba and Ekiti to GEJ albeit with higher percentage.

ok, fair enough.

I think passingshot is very generous to GEJ in the southwest. The feelers on the street is that people want any other thing apart from GEJ.

I conducted a poll among 18 of my colleagues in lagos this morning. About 13 have PVC's. Out of these 13 people only 2 are voting GEJ. I gave them the pullout in punch of today to see GEJ achievements,they threw it back at me. One said "it's all paper achievement".

GEJ is not loved like 2011,am curious as to how this ends because PDP seems poised to hold on to power.

EUROFIGHTERR:


Jonathan will defeat buhari in the SW. You can refer to this post after Saturday.

Nuff said.

no mind that @passingshot he is a typical APC man. SW will be won by PDP just as NC,SE&SS. Nothing much has changed from 2011 except the wasted votes of ACN then that will be added to buhari with kwara traditionally low voting marginally adding to buhari. As for kogi,benue,nassarawa and plateau these are confirmed PDP. Anyone saying otherwise is delusional! GEJ will win it with not less than 6m while APC will scream rigging as usual even with their bragado on card reader!

Tvegas:
I think passingshot is very generous to GEJ in the southwest. The feelers on the street is that people want any other thing apart from GEJ.

I conducted a poll among 18 of my colleagues in lagos this morning. About 13 have PVC's. Out of these 13 people only 2 are voting GEJ. I gave them the pullout in punch of today to see GEJ achievements,they threw it back at me. One said "it's all paper achievement".

GEJ is not loved like 2011,am curious as to how this ends.

Thank you bro for relaying your experience.

I have been deliberately generous with PDP in SW just to see if it is mathematically possible for them to win this election. PDP know they have lost it already, hence the campaign of calumny and propaganda. Just today, DSS have arrested the supplier of the PVCs requesting for the encryption code which fortunately the man does not even have.

sartorius:
passingshot your analysis is fair. Buhari cant get 30 percent in Imo. GEJ would do much better in Ondo, lagos, osun, ondo and the north central than you have projected. Buhari would perform worse than you have projected in the north east due to insecurity and electoral fraud. 6 weeks has changed a lot

Check the PVCs collected in the region, that would help u project better

ziccoit:
@PassingShot, brilliant analysis and I agree with you except your over generosity to PDP in SW. I'm on ground too in SW. I feel GMB is going to put up better show in the SW states. I even tagged SW as the burial ground of PDP/GEJ in this election. Is like a movie titled "SW against GEJ". People are expressively and palpably angry with GEJ and are ready to reject him massively at poll. I spoke with the people who agreed to vote for the first time in their lives just to ensure GEJ would not come back.

M on ground too
PDP will shock many

sartorius:
passingshot your analysis is fair. Buhari cant get 30 percent in Imo. GEJ would do much better in Ondo, lagos, osun, ondo and the north central than you have projected. Buhari would perform worse than you have projected in the north east due to insecurity and electoral fraud. 6 weeks has changed a lot

My broda I wil advice yu to remove lagos and osun frm yur list because osun in 2011 don't even vote for pdp,and mind yu lagos is de seat of jagaban.