jpphilips:



You borrowed to finance your budget, did you bother to know why?

Obiagelli:

Royalties and taxes i believe.

This is how it works;

Assume FIRS figure as X
Acreage to Nigeria as Y

In your submission you said X+Y = Total revenue but you forgot that Y forms part of X, that alone has murdered most of your calculations.

In our 60% it is our responsibility to pay for security for all IOC's, though they pay first but we refund later so 10% of our 60% pay for all those gun ships you see in the creek, I am not sure whether OPS pulo shield is financed from the 10% but you must factor it in, the politicians may finance their security votes from there.

Another very important variable you missed is the pet tax;

after the 60:40 split, each person will pay tax to FIRS, the royalty shell talked about in the evidence you provided deducted 5% as operating cost, before remitting the rest, yes we have an agreement they should deduct it (there is no point paying us to pay them back),

what % of their 40% is tax accruable to FIRS?

What % of our 60% is remitted to FIRS??

Ya, I read your evidence where SNEPCO remitted $1.2b, so what % of their 40% is $1.2b?

let me explain why that figure is important, assuming we agreed they will pay us 15% tax from their 40%, and they say OPS cost is 7%, the amount accrue to FIRS from their 40% will be 15-7= 8% that will amount to the $1.2b SNEPCO paid.

You skipped another very important one 13% derivation: this is calculated as 13% of oil produced from oil fields of each state.
EG Imo has Egbema oil field, Oguta, Owoza and Assa, now, you will calculate Imo state by what each of these oil field is producing individually because it is not a flat rate. you cannot just pull out 13% from our 60%, so it will go down to what you produced for the month, if you have a
shutdown that month, sorry!! nothing for you.

That is why you see Bayelsa monthly revenue on top of all the other oil producing regions, if it was a flat rate, all of them will be the same figures.

You see, with all these holes you cannot just calculate it like 1+1.

Whether Buhari can deliver on that promise, it depends on two factors

1) If he has a smart person who can fine tune the criteria for qualifying
2) He must fight corruption.


Now to support you a little;

All the Agencies you know in Nigeria does not remit 100% to FIRS, this alone murders your initial FIRS figure, but it supports your cause to a large extent because, if corrupt practices like those are plugged, we are looking at a near double of those figure of yours, also remember that most Agencies work with target.

You can tell NPA to give you 4b in a year, but they can make 8b that same year, they will remit 4b and keep the other 4b, all they need is to call it operating cost, then its over till the next year.


For your critics;

Some are talking about Operating cost, once royalty is paid, operating cost does not come to Nigeria, just call it a tax rebate from Royalty to make oil flow.

Some are talking about Development cost: It is inconsequential in this analysis because we don't pay the IOC's upfront, under our PSC agreement post 2004, they do everything with their money and we give them 60% oil value, that oil does not reflect in OP's 2mbbls/day so it is s!lly talking about development cost when she has mentioned her estimated 2mbbls/d

Some are saying SWF; WTF!! this is an unspecified % of FG's 52% stake in the ECA, we no longer earn excess crude revenue so why will OP include SWF people!! we are running a budget deficit, there is no excess anywhere.

The sad truth is; Nigeria is not a wealthy nation but corruption concentrated the bulk of its wealth in the hands of microscopic few while the majority live in penury.
If Nigeria's wealth should go round, we will just be average as a nation not rich, like people think.

Overall;

WE all pray for Buhari to succeed but hey, it not gonna be a walk in the park.

you can close the thread if you are a moderator, your analysis is pretty wrong!!

Olaone1:
The problem of the country is hydra-headed. The whole structure is weak. Maybe I should say there is no structure at all. From the bogus civil service to the juggernaut called corruption. To be honest, it appears insurmountable.
The workforce as it is right now should be halved. And not just at the Federal level. Imagine my state - Oyo state, having a workforce of over 38,000. Doing what, exactly? It is really sad how we got to this level as a people.

eaglechild:
Clueless APC kitchen economics.

No wonder they are unable to pay salaries in their states.

Instead of focusing on key sectors that will generate revenue they are here trying to defend the most bogus welfare scheme ever.

Truckpusher:
Op have no single idea of what she's talking about.

If you set her before a babalawo and a magician right now the babalawo and the magician would be stunned about her figures .

She is talking trash and I won't waste my energy and time educating janjawiids.

Let them find out the hard way.

jpphilips:


please if you are close to GMB, pull his ear and ask him not to touch that VAT, Fuel subsidy removal will be child's play.

Secondly, I didn't vote Buhari for 5k social programme but if I were him, I will pay that to only post NYSC guys using the NYSC template.
It will encourage more Nigerians to be educated.
Social programmes encourage Laziness especially if done on the streets.

taharqa:


OLODO, d OP 'didn't try' cos the OP was very wrong.

That's what we have been trying to say from the 1st page. Can't you read??

jpphilips:


And you won't stop being s!lly sticking your mouth where you have no idea of. Limit your opinion in your business that is what your upbringing should teach you first.
most of you are plain s!lly and unrepentantly dumb, it is my duty to always bring it to your notice.

anonimi:


So where are the careful statements you have made to correct the emptiness you observed

Obiagelli:

Since when did FIRS start collecting crude oil revenue?

Btw using words like breaking it down to my level does not make you any smart. Go and read the FIRS link.

queensmith:
Obiagelli - Paste jpphilips response above to the initial post.

i will actually like to see a thorough analysis of this programme.

Also the welfare should only be for : the disabled, women with children and the elderly.

The rest should go towards an unemployment fund that should work towards moving the lower skilled into suitable jobs.

I personally think the programme is very doable - but in Nigeria I will expect for all the funding to either be politicized i.e reserved for card carrying members as we found in Ekiti, or looted in one go!

ALISMILE:
I think u eer the one talkin trash here and nt her! She gave u figures base on our national income!

jpphilips:


This is how it works;

Assume FIRS figure as X
Acreage to Nigeria as Y

In your submission you said X+Y = Total revenue but you forgot that Y forms part of X, that alone has murdered most of your calculations.

In our 60% it is our responsibility to pay for security for all IOC's, though they pay first but we refund later so 10% of our 60% pay for all those gun ships you see in the creek, I am not sure whether OPS pulo shield is financed from the 10% but you must factor it in, the politicians may finance their security votes from there.

Another very important variable you missed is the pet tax;

after the 60:40 split, each person will pay tax to FIRS, the royalty shell talked about in the evidence you provided deducted 5% as operating cost, before remitting the rest, yes we have an agreement they should deduct it (there is no point paying us to pay them back),

what % of their 40% is tax accruable to FIRS?

What % of our 60% is remitted to FIRS??

Ya, I read your evidence where SNEPCO remitted $1.2b, so what % of their 40% is $1.2b?

let me explain why that figure is important, assuming we agreed they will pay us 15% tax from their 40%, and they say OPS cost is 7%, the amount accrue to FIRS from their 40% will be 15-7= 8% that will amount to the $1.2b SNEPCO paid.

You skipped another very important one 13% derivation: this is calculated as 13% of oil produced from oil fields of each state.
EG Imo has Egbema oil field, Oguta, Owoza and Assa, now, you will calculate Imo state by what each of these oil field is producing individually because it is not a flat rate. you cannot just pull out 13% from our 60%, so it will go down to what you produced for the month, if you have a
shutdown that month, sorry!! nothing for you.

That is why you see Bayelsa monthly revenue on top of all the other oil producing regions, if it was a flat rate, all of them will be the same figures.

You see, with all these holes you cannot just calculate it like 1+1.

Whether Buhari can deliver on that promise, it depends on two factors

1) If he has a smart person who can fine tune the criteria for qualifying
2) He must fight corruption.


Now to support you a little;

All the Agencies you know in Nigeria does not remit 100% to FIRS, this alone murders your initial FIRS figure, but it supports your cause to a large extent because, if corrupt practices like those are plugged, we are looking at a near double of those figure of yours, also remember that most Agencies work with target.

You can tell NPA to give you 4b in a year, but they can make 8b that same year, they will remit 4b and keep the other 4b, all they need is to call it operating cost, then its over till the next year.


For your critics;

Some are talking about Operating cost, once royalty is paid, operating cost does not come to Nigeria, just call it a tax rebate from Royalty to make oil flow.

Some are talking about Development cost: It is inconsequential in this analysis because we don't pay the IOC's upfront, under our PSC agreement post 2004, they do everything with their money and we give them 60% oil value, that oil does not reflect in OP's 2mbbls/day so it is s!lly talking about development cost when she has mentioned her estimated 2mbbls/d

Some are saying SWF; WTF!! this is an unspecified % of FG's 52% stake in the ECA, we no longer earn excess crude revenue so why will OP include SWF people!! we are running a budget deficit, there is no excess anywhere.

The sad truth is; Nigeria is not a wealthy nation but corruption concentrated the bulk of its wealth in the hands of microscopic few while the majority live in penury.
If Nigeria's wealth should go round, we will just be average as a nation not rich, like people think.

Overall;

WE all pray for Buhari to succeed but hey, it not gonna be a walk in the park.

you can close the thread if you are a moderator, your analysis is pretty wrong!!

torkaka:


. . . . . . . . . . . who the hell is feeding you kids with this crap? . . . . . . . . . . .FIRS cannot (I repeat; cannot) declare all FG earnings other than taxes!!! . . . . . . . . . .that is not within its powers!!!

part 1 section 2 of the FIRS act states;

"object of the Service shall be to control and administer the different taxes
and laws specified in the First Schedule or other laws made or to be made from time to
time. by the National Assembly or other regulations made there under by the
Government of the Federation and to account for all taxes collected"

trillville:

YES
Because the benefits of feeding the children out ways the cost. Having a government program that buys up all food produced will spur our agricultural sector thereby reducing unemployment. In the long run, we will start exporting food to our neighbouring countries.

Understand that the initial cost of setting this program up will be higher than the cost to keep it running. The cost of production will reduce drastically as a result of specialisation and economies of scale.

Not feeding and educating this children may lead to future BH, militants, etc, costing us more money in the long run.

Educating our poor is as important as electricity is to the future of Nigeria.

PS

I don tire for this our talk, I no be economist self. You just dey suffer suffer my brain. I quit.

grandstar:


It is not possible and not juast because of the cost involved, but because it is wasteful.

Buhari said he is going to run a lean government. He has even said he plans to remove the fuel subsidy.

The cash handouts to peopel are called conditional cash transfers and have been used in such countries as Brazil and Mexico.

It is usually given to women with children.

jpphilips:





You just murdered your thread with this ignorant statement

kaboninc:


Please Oby, answer the question or react to it.

Obiagelli:

Interesting, thanks for bringing up some new dimension, i am glad you agree that the social policy is achievable, that is the essence of this thread, the pdp guys painted an impossible picture earlier.

jmoore:
I am only interested on how he can stabilize world oil price.

jpphilips:


On the contrary I didn't agree completely, I only brought to your notice that your calculation as per earning is wrong, how can you deduce the feasibility of a project (expenditure) when you cannot calculate the earnings properly?

I wish I had the missing percentages but the DPR guys are too hush!! hush!! for my liking.
Lastly, I attached a caveat below on things Buhari needs to do in terms of corruption that will likely double your FIRS figures until that is done,
we will see how much is realized before we start asking whether or not it is possible, remember former CBN Gov. Amiable Prof. Soludo said during the campaigns that it is not possible, trust me, that guy knows too much and you just have to take his word for it.

Without the right figures, nobody really knows, so get to work, if you want to get to the bottom of this.

kaboninc:


Lool.

I no dey suffer suffer your brain. I wish you could have some ground understanding.

Having a government program that buy all these produce just for the sake of feeding kids doesn't make economic sense. By economic sense I mean having value in the long run.

Do not confuse this 'feeding children' as a business venture. No, it is charity. Then again, it is not about initial cost but sustainability.

Caseless:
Obayaya, have u seen it?

jpphilips:





You just murdered your thread with this ignorant statement

freshcvv:


You can believe 4,000 mW a year but can't believe 5000 per year to 5 million people? Ain't you foolish? Which is more expensive to achieve?

Justfollowit:


I feel like driving a nail through skull

MuguliciousMUGU:
Nonsense

go school, you won't go... You can see how buhari certificateless brain is affecting yours.

Just as they say, show me your friend and i will tell you who you are.

I rest my case.

We are watching the miracles...