Oil is poised to slump to $45 a barrel by October as a surplus of crude and producers’ easy access to cash weigh on the market, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
A recovery in prices to near $60 a barrel from a six-year low in March is premature, analysts including Jeffrey Currie said in an e-mailed report dated May 18. The availability of cheap capital exacerbates the need for sustained low prices to keep U.S. producers from boosting output, according to the bank.
West Texas Intermediate oil has rebounded 37 percent since March amid speculation a drop in U.S. drilling rigs to the fewest since August 2010 will slow output and ease a supply glut. The backlog of drilled but uncompleted wells represents more than 100 million barrels of crude held in underground storage, Goldman said.
“Our bearish view has been driven by two surpluses: excess hydrocarbons, but just as importantly, excess capital,” New York-based Currie and Damien Courvalin said in the note. “We find that the global market imbalances are in fact not solved and believe that the rally will prove self-defeating as it undermines the nascent rebalancing.”
While markets have focused on the U.S. rig count, given its weekly frequency and potential insight into slowing shale output, production will still grow in 2016 at the current number of active machines, according to Goldman. Uncompleted wells can be brought into production quickly and add at least 250,000 barrels a day, according to the bank.
“Should WTI remain near $60/bbl, U.S. producers will ramp up activity given improved returns with costs down by at least 20 percent,” Goldman said in the note.

Price Recovery
Oil prices collapsed almost 50 percent in 2014 as a shale boom drove U.S. production to the fastest pace in more than three decades. The nation’s crude stockpiles are near the highest level since 1930, according to monthly data from the Energy Information Administration dating back to 1920.

The slump led to U.S. companies reducing the number of active rigs by 58 percent since December, the most prolonged retreat from the nation’s fields on record. The count dropped to 660 through May 15, according to data from Baker Hughes Inc.
Prices will recover gradually through to the end of next year and reach $60 a barrel, which Goldman estimates as the marginal cost of production for shale. The bank’s 12-month forecast is $55 a barrel, which implies $53 in the first quarter of 2016, it said in the note.
Goldman forecast WTI to trade this year at a $6 discount to Brent in London, the European benchmark crude, and $5 from 2016. Brent for July settlement was 1.3 percent lower at $65.42 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange at 3:52 p.m. Singapore time.


http://www.bloomberg.com/goldman-sees-oil-at-45-by-october-after-self-defeating-rally

GMB will bring it back up

That is why we need a serious govt in place....not a father christmas sharing money like it's going out of fashion

A lean treasury needs (a lean man) who understands what frugality, modesty and responsibility is.

Not the one ready to blame everybody and everything but himself for every problem encountered under his rule

^^^^ what money were you sharing? This poverty stricken Nation has nothing to share, you people pretend not to know.

this in talks don de turn noise ooo

Febup:
GMB will bring it back up

Please I am an unemployed youth from Sambisa. Station by NYSC in Soka forest. Will GMB find me a wife that resembles that of Adams Oshiomole?

atlwireles:
^^^^ what money were you sharing? This poverty stricken Nation has nothing to share, you people pretend not to know.

Really??

now that's strange....very strange

theV0ice:


Really??

now that's strange....very strange

You don't know this is a poverty stricken Nation? Your projected total revenue for 2015 is $60B, shared by 170M people. What are you going to do with your $285 or N60,000? If Oil drops to $45 that number falls to $50B. Are you one of those walking around telling themselves Nigeria is a very rich country?

atlwireles:


You don't know this is a poverty stricken Nation? Your projected total revenue for 2015 is $60B, shared by 170M people. What are you going to do with your $350 or N70,000? If Oil drops to $45 that number falls to $50B. Are you one of those walking around telling themselves Nigeria is a very rich country?

I thought you were one of those regaling us with how GEJ built our economy to such a high level that it has become the largest economy in Africa and the 26th largest in the world? Did you not paint a picture of a very healthy economy all along courtesy of the miracles of St Jona? Were you knowingly telling us lies then?

I don't even want to go into the reserves the sick Yar'adua left or the excess crude account or the almost zero debt GEJ met or fact that this 'poverty stricken country' sold 2m barrels of oil/day at over $100/barrel for over 3 years which came to an end less than a year ago.

theV0ice:


I thought you were one of those regaling us with how GEJ built our economy to such a high level that it has become the largest economy in Africa and the 26th largest in the world? Did you not paint a picture of a very healthy economy all along courtesy of the miracles of St Jona? Were you knowingly telling us lies then?

I don't even want to go into the reserves the sick Yar'adua left or the excess crude account or the almost zero debt GEJ met or fact that this 'poverty stricken country' sold 2m barrels of oil/day at over $100/barrel for over 3 years which came to an end less than a year ago.

Even at $100 this was still a poverty stricken Nation. The cliff you people are about to fall of, will leave lots of you bloody. Maybe then, some of you might wise up.

atlwireles:


Even at $100 this was still a poverty stricken Nation. The cliff you people are about to fall of, will leave lots of you bloody. Maybe then, some of you might wise up.

Do you finally agree you, GEJ and the rest of your team were bloody liars all along?

We knew the economy had always been in dire straits and we screamed it to the high heavens but you told us our fears were unfounded. Are you now admitting you guys lied and led Nigerians on a steep descent of falsehood?

theV0ice:


Do you finally agree you, GEJ and the rest of your team were bloody liars all along?

We knew the economy had always been in dire straits and we screamed it to the high heavens but you told us our fears were unfounded. Are you now admitting you guys lied and led Nigerians on a steep descent of falsehood?

You don't get it, you don't give what you don't have? This country is a poor country just it has been for 50 years. What admission are you talking about? That the economy expanded under GEJ at a rate of 6% does not mean this is not a poverty stricken Nation.

Many people are in politics today to steal from Nigeria's oil wealth. I wish oil will sell for $15 dollars a barrel. The higher oil price has only benefitted politicians and fueled corruption.

atlwireles:


You don't get it, you don't give what you don't have? This country is a poor country just it has been for 50 years. What admission are you talking about? That the economy expanded under GEJ at a rate of 6% does not mean this is not a poverty stricken Nation.

The admission that you, GEJ and the rest of your crew lied greatly when you told us the economy was doing very fine when in fact the economy was a 'poverty stricken' one as you're now confessing?

Meanwhile, do you think this 'poverty stricken country' has any chance in hell or heaven to become a rich one? using your standards?

Just here to read comments from hypocrites.

theV0ice:




The admission that you, GEJ and the rest of your crew lied greatly when you told us the economy was doing very fine when in fact the economy was a 'poverty stricken' one as you're now confessing?

Meanwhile, do you think this 'poverty stricken country' has any chance in hell or heaven to become a rich one? using your standards?

Classic rubbish from the pretender group, take your time and read my comments on this forum. I have always described this country as a poverty stricken Nation filled with pretenders thinking they have money, when in reality, they have nothing. Look at the way you threw your 2 million barrels at $100 oil out here? Do you even know what that means? Do you know what was Nigeria's take home after the IOC/local consumption took their shares? Take those numbers and divide what's left by 160M or 165M or what ever population number you want, then you might get the picture. You have nothing to offer but 2 million barrels for 170M people and for some of you it makes you people the dangotes of Africa, while in reality this country is as poor as a church rat. THAT WAS THE MESSAGE NOI AND GOODLUCK TIRED DESPERATELY TO COMMUNICATE TO YOU PEOPLE.

For your pretender class it was corruption, forgetting you cannot give what you don't have. That's why I feel so sorry for most of you, because of hell heading your way.

atlwireles:


Classic rubbish from the pretender group, take your time and read my comments on this forum. I have always described this country as a poverty stricken Nation filled with pretenders thinking they have money, when in reality, they have nothing. Look at the way you threw your 2 million barrels at $100 oil out here? Do you even know what that means? Do you know what was Nigeria's take home after the IOC/local consumption took their shares? Take those numbers and divide what's left by 160M or 165M or what ever population number you want, then you might get the picture. You have nothing to offer but 2 million barrels for 170M people and for some of you it makes you people the dangotes of Africa, while in reality this country is as poor as a church rat. THAT WAS THE MESSAGE NOI AND GOODLUCK TIRED DESPERATELY TO COMMUNICATE TO YOU PEOPLE.

cool down....you don't have to hyperventilate because you boxed yourself into a corner my friend, i didn't send you on the wild fantasy ride of defending GEJ you know? you, GEJ and NOI swore GEJ was the next best thing to happen to the world after sliced bread and how we'd never had it so good. If you're recanting now, simply say so

Nigeria and the IOC's share it in the ratio 60/40 so i leave you to do the calculation of what comes in. meanwhile, have you heard of the FIRS? do you know they earn money for the FG? have you heard of customs? do you know they also collect on behalf of the FG? Do you know there are extremely wealthy and okay nations on earth that do not have oil? how do they make it? how do they survive? This will bring me back to the simple question which you failed to answer which is; Do you think this 'poverty stricken country' has any chance in hell or heaven to become a rich one? using your standards?

For your pretender class it was corruption, forgetting you cannot give what you don't have. That's why I feel so sorry for most of you, because of hell heading your way.

I sincerely hope you're not a Nigerian and not resident in Nigeria and doesn't have a relative in Nigeria? otherwise i feel sorry for you and yours too when that hell you seriously wish and pray for finally turns up

theV0ice:




cool down....you don't have to hyperventilate because you boxed yourself into a corner my friend, i didn't send you on the wild fantasy ride of defending GEJ you know? you, GEJ and NOI swore GEJ was the next best thing to happen to the world after sliced bread and how we'd never had it so good. If you're recanting now, simply say so

Nigeria and the IOC's share it in the ratio 60/40 so i leave you to do the calculation of what comes in. meanwhile, have you heard of the FIRS? do you know they earn money for the FG? have you heard of customs? do you know they also collect on behalf of the FG? Do you know there are extremely wealthy and okay nations on earth that do not have oil? how do they make it? how do they survive? This will bring me back to the simple question which you failed to answer which is; Do you think this 'poverty stricken country' has any chance in hell or heaven to become a rich one? using your standards?




I sincerely hope you're not a Nigerian and not resident in Nigeria and doesn't have a relative in Nigeria? otherwise i feel sorry for you and yours too when that hell you seriously wish and pray for finally turns up

I will not partake in the hell with you people, because I have never expected anything from government. No need replying, you're just repeating your pretender class rubbish.

atlwireles:


I will not partake in the hell with you people, because I have never expected anything from government. No need replying, you just repeating your pretender class rubbish.

@the bold, i understand

As for the hell, what about your relatives? Your clan? Your tribe? your state? are they immune too?

agents of doom

theV0ice:


@the bold, i understand

As for the hell, what about your relatives? Your clan? Your tribe? your state? are they immune too?

Those of you waiting for free food for your children, N5,000, free housing, etc because your country is a rich oil exporting nation are the ones heading for hell. I don't know anyone in that group.

theV0ice:


@the bold, i understand

As for the hell, what about your relatives? Your clan? Your tribe? your state? are they immune too?

Those of you waiting for free food for children, N5,000, free housing, etc because your country is a rich oil exporting nation are the ones heading for hell. I don't know anyone in that group.

atlwireles:


Those of you waiting for free food for children, N5,000, free housing, etc because your country is a rich oil exporting nation are the ones heading for hell. I don't know anyone in that group.

The Nigerian 'bigman'.....i salute your 'richness'

theV0ice:




The Nigerian 'bigman'.....i salute your 'richness'

I have to sleep now, nobody is a bigman, you just learn to make a living the hard way. Instead of planing how to become an everlasting parasite.

Have a nice night.

This country is very funny. Everyone is waiting for OYEL money. Nobody is thinking...oyel things!

Why can't we discard this system and allow for true federal system? Why can't we install a system that encourages creative leadership at all level? Why must the whole 36 states + FG suffer for any slight drop in oil price? Why can't we think?

Let it even crash to $20 then we will be forced to diversify!

atlwireles:


I have to sleep now, nobody is a bigman, you just learn to make a living the hard way. Instead of planing how to become an everlasting parasite.

Have a nice night.

Which is what all Nigerians will learn how to do including those who wish to shoot and bomb their way to stupendous wealth

wish you a good night sleep....you need it for the hard work you must do tomorrow

BabaOneChance will stabilise the price of crude oil, he is coming to fulfil his promise

atlwireles:


You don't know this is a poverty stricken Nation? Your projected total revenue for 2015 is $60B, shared by 170M people. What are you going to do with your $285 or N60,000? If Oil drops to $45 that number falls to $50B. Are you one of those walking around telling themselves Nigeria is a very rich country?

Tell them jare!

The budget for New York City is $75b for a population of 8m

The FG's budget is not up to 5 trillion naira which is less than $25b.

Thats means that NYC of 8m spends 3 times the FG's budget. Yeye dey smell

theV0ice:




cool down....you don't have to hyperventilate because you boxed yourself into a corner my friend, i didn't send you on the wild fantasy ride of defending GEJ you know? you, GEJ and NOI swore GEJ was the next best thing to happen to the world after sliced bread and how we'd never had it so good. If you're recanting now, simply say so

Nigeria and the IOC's share it in the ratio 60/40 so i leave you to do the calculation of what comes in. meanwhile, have you heard of the FIRS? do you know they earn money for the FG? have you heard of customs? do you know they also collect on behalf of the FG? Do you know there are extremely wealthy and okay nations on earth that do not have oil? how do they make it? how do they survive? This will bring me back to the simple question which you failed to answer which is; Do you think this 'poverty stricken country' has any chance in hell or heaven to become a rich one? using your standards?




I sincerely hope you're not a Nigerian and not resident in Nigeria and doesn't have a relative in Nigeria? otherwise i feel sorry for you and yours too when that hell you seriously wish and pray for finally turns up

atlwireles is telling you the truth.

A strong and buoyant economy does not change the fact the Nigeria is poor! Because a country is booming does not change the fact that it is poor! If the boom is sustainable for a long period of time, it will lead to prosperity. Singapore went from Third World to First in 30years.

South Korea took about 25 years.

grandstar:


atlwireles is telling you the truth.

A strong and buoyant economy does not change the fact the Nigeria is poor! Because a country is booming does not change the fact that it is poor! If the boom is sustainable for a long period of time, it will lead to prosperity. Singapore went from Third World to First in 30years.

South Korea took about 25 years.

Check my initial post, it had nothing to do with whether Nigeria was poor, rich or not. I simply said GEJ was sharing money like a father Christmas. Heck, i even made reference to a lean treasury in that same post but in his bid to defend Jona, he started screaming how 'poverty stricken' Nigeria was as if that suddenly proved no massive looting was going on or obscured the knowledge that massive amounts of money were expended by GEJ to buy electoral favour in the same Nigeria where militant criminals of less than 5 years ago are cruising in private jets today and owning universities in foreign countries courtesy of govt patronage. The same Nigeria where poor unimaginative men of yesterday suddenly jump into obscene wealth by spending some few years in the corridors of power. I salute this 'poverty stricken' country. Do you know how much extra-budgetary spendings go on in the land? The subsidy scam is a case in point not to mention the document-less spending we just read from the PWC 'report'

Also, i asked a simple question which he refused or failed to answer Do you think this 'poverty stricken country' called Nigeria has any chance in hell or heaven to become a rich one? using your standards?

i also asked the following when he started talking as if Nigeria has only oil to offer it's people. Do you know there are extremely wealthy and okay nations on earth that do not have oil? how do they make it? how do they survive?. At least you've mentioned Singapore and south korea, countries that obviously have nothing called oil

theV0ice:


Check my initial post, it had nothing to do with whether Nigeria was poor, rich or not. I simply said GEJ was sharing money like a father Christmas. Heck, i even made reference to a lean treasury in that same post but in his bid to defend Jona, he started screaming how 'poverty stricken' Nigeria was as if that suddenly proved no massive looting was going on or obscured the knowledge that massive amounts of money were expended by GEJ to buy electoral favour in the same Nigeria where militant criminals of less than 5 years ago are cruising in private jets today and owning universities in foreign countries courtesy of govt patronage. The same Nigeria where poor unimaginative men of yesterday suddenly jump into obscene wealth by spending some few years in the corridors of power. I salute this 'poverty stricken' country. Do you know how much extra-budgetary spendings go on in the land? The subsidy scam is a case in point not to mention the document-less spending we just read from the PWC 'report'

Also, i asked a simple question which he refused or failed to answer Do you think this 'poverty stricken country' called Nigeria has any chance in hell or heaven to become a rich one? using your standards?

i also asked the following when he started talking as if Nigeria has only oil to offer it's people. Do you know there are extremely wealthy and okay nations on earth that do not have oil? how do they make it? how do they survive?. At least you've mentioned Singapore and south korea, countries that obviously have nothing called oil

okay. I get your point