http://www.foxnews.com/
opinion/2015/05/29/why-im-
optimistic-about-nigerias-long-
term-economic-future.html


Why I'm optimistic about Nigeria's
long-term economic future
Nigeria, perhaps for all the wrong
reasons, has been much more
visible in the Western media as of
late. Nigeria experienced an early
Ebola fear that never spread
beyond a handful of cases. Nigeria
is consistently ranked as one of the
most corrupt places in the world,
often in the same class as Russia,
and Iran.
Nigeria, being one of the largest oil
producers in the world at 2.5 million
barrels a day, has suffered from
the 50 percent decline in oil prices.
When 90 percent of your export
revenues and 50 percent of your
fiscal budget is based on oil, a price
drop less significant than this will
have dramatic effects.
Nigeria, is front and center in the
world War on Terror because of the
horrific acts of the home grown
Boko Haram organization, now
affiliated with ISIS.
And Nigeria, experienced a hotly
contested presidential election that
had to be postponed because of
terror concerns. This combined
with the fact that elections in Africa
are frequently accompanied by
social unrest and sometimes
undemocratic transfers of power.
But despite all of this there is a
silver lining that is, and has been
discounted by the press, policy
makers and the international
business community.
Last year, Nigeria surpassed South
Africa as the largest economy in
Africa. This is not simply an
accounting ranking of economies.
This is significant for Nigeria and all
of West Africa because the region
and the continent needs economic
engines. Nigeria can be and will be
that engine.
In 35 years, Nigeria will have a
population that is projected to
exceed that of the United States.
Already, Nigeria has a labor force of
over 73 million and an expanding
middle-class despite all of the
problems listed above. This
expanding middle-class is the key
to a growing economy, and a more
stable and mature political system.
Nigeria is arguably where China and
India were 15 to 20 years ago.
Baron Rothschild is reported to
have said that you don’t make
money until there is blood in the
streets. This does not apply to
Nigeria literally, but figuratively,
Nigeria is on the verge of an
economic expansion that has
largely been the result of oil wealth
and the political maturation
process.
It is significant that the recent
election and change in power from
Goodluck Jonathan of Muhammadu
Buhari has taken place without
bloodshed or military intervention.
Democratic change of power is not
the norm. This simple act of
turning over power to person
receiving the most votes of the
population is itself a revolutionary
event that signals that Nigeria is
further along on the political and
economic maturation process than
the world recognizes.
The decline in oil prices is
unfortunate, but in some respects
it provides Nigeria’s leadership with
an opportunity to overcome the
“curse of natural resource wealth”.
Before oil became “the industry”,
Nigeria had a diversified agricultural
economy. Since the oil boom,
related industries have popped up
and are well positioned to make
Nigeria a much more balanced
economy with strengths in housing,
technology, automotive,
transportation, telecommunicati
ons, clothing, consumer durables
and all of the things an expanding
middle-class demand. Wise
economic management can make
this a reality.
It also should be noted that this
transition of power also occurred
when the Jonathan administration
was largely responsible for a real
effort to increase financial
transparency and accountability.
On this front, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala,
Ph.D. deserves recognition. Dr.
Okonjo-Iweala a Harvard educated,
MIT trained economist and former
leader at the World Bank brought a
management style and an
understanding of the importance of
transparency and accountability to
long-term economic growth. The
new Buhari administration would be
wise to continue in this direction.
Too often we look at short-term
developments without focusing on
the long-term. The great English
economist John Maynard Keynes
commented that “in the long-run
we are all dead”. Despite this, the
long-run focus is the appropriate
focus for Nigeria and for us here in
the West, and that long-run for
Nigeria looks good from where I sit.
Fred McKinney, Ph.D. is Managing
Director, MBE Programs at
Dartmouth's Tuck School of
Business.