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How Naira Devaluation Will Impoverish Nigeria. - Politics - Nairaland

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How Naira Devaluation Will Impoverish Nigeria. by 989900: 9:53pm On Sep 28, 2015
Editor’s note: From 50 kobo per dollar in 1975 to over 200 naira per dollar today, Nigeria has become one of the countries that have watched their currency lose value throughout decades. Henry Boyo, in this opinion piece written on Vanguard, discloses how further devaluation of the naira would make Nigeria poorer.


President Muhammadu Buhari may have so far given the clearest preview of his template for the revival and sustenance of inclusive growth in the Nigerian economy in a recent interview with a French media house in Paris.

Indicatively, in his comment on our currency, Buhari noted that: “The naira has been devalued, as it used to be around N140/$ and now it is hovering around N200/$ and above; I don’t think it is healthy for us to have the naira further devalued.”

The defence of the apex bank’s policy

Furthermore, Buhari explained: “We are therefore getting the Central Bank to make modifications in terms of foreign exchange availability for essential industries, spare parts, essential raw materials and so on, while liberal access to the CBN’s depleting forex reserves will be denied to importers of such things like toothpick and rice for which Nigeria has adequate capacity.”

He therefore concluded: “We don’t need to give our hard earned currency for that, but those who insist on toothpick from Europe or from China, instead of using Nigerian toothpick, they can go and source their (own) foreign exchange.”

What is clearly evident from the above narrative is Buhari’s unequivocal endorsement of the Central Bank of Nigeria governor, Godwin Emefiele’s recent steps to reduce the pressure of dollar demand on the apex bank’s reserves and naira exchange rate.

Indeed, Buhari’s antecedent suggests that he was never enamoured by the usually extravagant promises that a weaker naira would jump start or successfully stimulate economic prosperity and promote exports.

Why Buhari did not remove petrol subsidy or devalue naira

For example, according to a front page story in the Daily Independent newspaper of September 17, the president had reportedly recalled at a town hall election campaign in March this year in Abuja, that he (Buhari) refused to remove subsidies on petrol and devalue the naira when he was head of state between 1983 and 1985, because it would have destroyed the economy.

He also revealed on the same occasion thus: “When we came into power in December 1983, we were approached by the world powers at some stage to devalue the naira, remove petrol subsidy and remove subsidy on flour, but we refused.”

Buhari had said: “The issue was that if we get plenty of naira, what are we going to do with it? We (had) even stopped farming and the only thing we get money from was oil and that was being paid in dollars.”

One does not have to be a top flight economist to appreciate Buhari’s logical insight of the economic realities of devaluation.

The Buhari stance thirty years ago and in the present

In retrospect, however, soon after he was ousted from power, the International Monetary Fund came calling with a structural adjustment economic plan, which they boasted would chart our course to El Dorado! Regrettably, the succeeding regime of Ibrahim Babangida, ultimately, smuggled in SAP under the guise of a home-grown variant, which horrifyingly debased the naira and inadvertently kick-started the odious brain drain of some of our best human assets to Europe and America and inevitably triggered the steady descent of our economy and our national values.

Ironically, Buhari is back as President 30 years later, when the naira exchange rate has alarmingly tumbled from less than N1=$1 in 1985 to N200/$ today. Curiously, nonetheless, the appropriate pricing of the naira and fuel subsidy still remain pivotal issues. There is also growing international pressure once again to further devalue the naira by between 15 per cent and 20 per cent i.e. to N230-240=$1, with the promise, this time, of more portfolio investment inflow, despite their inherent fickle disposition and prosperity for economic dislocation.

Thus, the President’s observations in the France 24 interview are probably an early reiteration of his position 30 years ago, that “devaluation would destroy the economy”.

Nevertheless, let us examine whether Buhari’s claim of the destructive capacity of naira devaluation can be substantiated. For this purpose, let us assume, for arithmetic facility, that the dollar appreciates 100 per cent against the naira to exchange for N400=$, even though such rate of appreciation may deceptively appear unrealistic presently. However, we must remember that the same dollar exchange rate appreciated from 50k=$ to N200=$ between 1975 and 2015 i.e. a 20,000 per cent increase, despite relatively increasing surplus forex earnings from higher crude oil prices!

The effect naira devaluation will have on Nigeria

In reality, N400=$1 exchange rate will reduce the current minimum wage to less than $50 per month! Thus, a minimum wage earner, may have to work 2×10 hour shifts every day to earn the income required to maintain his old consumption pattern before devaluation, unless he receives a commensurate wage increase! Similarly, all other higher income earners, and their savings, would also lose up to 50 per cent of the dollar value of their incomes, while all equity in the stock market will suffer the same fate if the dollar appreciates to N400=$1. In plain language, we would all be poorer!


So, in essence, naira devaluation was and remains bad news that portends social and economic dislocations and deepening poverty; evidently, our trajectory in the last 30 years bears ample testimony to this reality.

https://www.naij.com/558998-naira-devaluation-will-impoverish-nigeria.html
Re: How Naira Devaluation Will Impoverish Nigeria. by Hakagure: 9:43pm On Oct 06, 2015
First we must define the space we are talking about. Specifically here we are talking about the foreign exchange market.

The foreign exchange market is where all the worlds currencies are purchased and sold, it is the biggest finance market in the world, prices are set by demand and supply, in the event of a dollar peg (as opposed to a freely floating currency) the country pegged to the dollar ensures that it buys its currency at a fixed ratio compared to the dollar irregardless of demand and supply, this is known as defending the currency, other ways a currency can be defended is by using "currency controls". These include


Banning the use of foreign currency within the country
Banning locals from possessing foreign currency
Restricting currency exchange to government-approved exchangers
Fixed exchange rates
Restrictions on the amount of currency that may be imported or exported

I will now steal wholesale from Wikipedia to define how this "pegging " is done.

Open market trading

Typically, a government wanting to maintain a fixed exchange rate does so by either buying or selling its own currency on the open market. This is one reason governments maintain reserves of foreign currencies. If the exchange rate drifts too far below the fixed benchmark rate, the government buys its own currency in the market using its reserves. This places greater demand on the market and pushes up the price of the currency[citation needed]. If the exchange rate drifts too far above the desired rate, the government sells its own currency, and buys foreign currency, thus reducing the pressure on demand, and its foreign reserves fall.

Fiat

Another, less used means of maintaining a fixed exchange rate is by simply making it illegal to trade currency at any other rate. This is difficult to enforce and often leads to a black market in foreign currency. Nonetheless, some countries are highly successful at using this method due to government monopolies over all money conversion. This was the method employed by the Chinese government to maintain a currency peg or tightly banded float against the US dollar. Throughout the 1990s, China was highly successful at maintaining a currency peg using a government monopoly over all currency conversion between the yuan and other currencies.


As anticipated, Nigeria pegs its currency, defends it currency and controls its currency. keeping a fixed currency is an active process in which the nation makes it prohibitive for small buyers/sellers of foreign currency to "short" its currency or drive its currency lower, keep in mind that controlling currency is currently an exception and is not a rule, some countries actively keep their currency devalued (but we will get to that later, this is referred to as currency manipulation). One of the reasons the naira devalues is simply because the dollar got stronger, another reason is because our forex reserves are reducing as the price of Oil falls, you , I, Buhari nor the Saudis can control the price of Oil any more (OPEC did successfully for a long time but are being under cut by Shale)

These controls and pegging have the following effect on an economy.

Drives up cost of capital, discourages FDI. This disproportionately affects small companies.
We spend forex defending the naira ($3.4 just keeping it pegged as per BBC)
- http://www.bbc.com/news/business-33258942
Create a parallel market for people who want to import goods on the non approved list
Drive up prices of good on the market (effectively inflate the market for imported products)
Capital flight due to high cost of capital, so FDI leaves. Rightly capital anticipates taxation as the next move after currency controls (in order to control inflation) hence capital flees the country
Whats the extreme case: Lets imagine the pressure continues and CBN keeps defending the currency as capital flows out and balance of payments worses. Well, we dont print dollars (and thats what the CBN needs to use to defend the naira) so eventually, our forex gets so low there is a chance we do not make our debt payments, seeing this impending cliff event CBN will either stop propping up the dollar or stop making debt payments . If you stop making debt payments... well. Thats the nuclear option.

Once they stop propping up the naira, the naira crashes precipitously and the stock exchange with it (jobs go, companies fail) The exact same thing you tried to avoid happens all at once. The govt begs IMF or World Bank for a massive infusion of dollars (thats what we neeed, not naira which we can print willy nilly) and then in return IMF/ World Bank asks for higher taxes, austerity, privatization of everything in sight then kindly gives us a loan in return which we use to arrest the precipitous decline. Meanwhile we go through another period of Austerity.

The dark dark thing is this, this has happened before. Buhari refused to devalue in 82, Babangida came in and had NO CHOICE, plunged us into severe austerity (SAP). Same macro events (oil price tanked, Nigerias balance of payments skewed) led to same disastrous events (massive devaluation and privatization, failure of companies and the stock exchange and austerity). So your analysis is...over simplified and distorted.

I anticipate your response.
Re: How Naira Devaluation Will Impoverish Nigeria. by 989900: 5:23pm On Oct 08, 2015
Hakagure:
First we must define the space we are talking about. Specifically here we are talking about the foreign exchange market.

The foreign exchange market is where all the worlds currencies are purchased and sold, it is the biggest finance market in the world, prices are set by demand and supply, in the event of a dollar peg (as opposed to a freely floating currency) the country pegged to the dollar ensures that it buys its currency at a fixed ratio compared to the dollar irregardless of demand and supply, this is known as defending the currency, other ways a currency can be defended is by using "currency controls". These include


Banning the use of foreign currency within the country
Banning locals from possessing foreign currency
Restricting currency exchange to government-approved exchangers
Fixed exchange rates
Restrictions on the amount of currency that may be imported or exported

I will now steal wholesale from Wikipedia to define how this "pegging " is done.

Open market trading

Typically, a government wanting to maintain a fixed exchange rate does so by either buying or selling its own currency on the open market. This is one reason governments maintain reserves of foreign currencies. If the exchange rate drifts too far below the fixed benchmark rate, the government buys its own currency in the market using its reserves. This places greater demand on the market and pushes up the price of the currency[citation needed]. If the exchange rate drifts too far above the desired rate, the government sells its own currency, and buys foreign currency, thus reducing the pressure on demand, and its foreign reserves fall.

Fiat

Another, less used means of maintaining a fixed exchange rate is by simply making it illegal to trade currency at any other rate. This is difficult to enforce and often leads to a black market in foreign currency. Nonetheless, some countries are highly successful at using this method due to government monopolies over all money conversion. This was the method employed by the Chinese government to maintain a currency peg or tightly banded float against the US dollar. Throughout the 1990s, China was highly successful at maintaining a currency peg using a government monopoly over all currency conversion between the yuan and other currencies.


As anticipated, Nigeria pegs its currency, defends it currency and controls its currency. keeping a fixed currency is an active process in which the nation makes it prohibitive for small buyers/sellers of foreign currency to "short" its currency or drive its currency lower, keep in mind that controlling currency is currently an exception and is not a rule, some countries actively keep their currency devalued (but we will get to that later, this is referred to as currency manipulation). One of the reasons the naira devalues is simply because the dollar got stronger, another reason is because our forex reserves are reducing as the price of Oil falls, you , I, Buhari nor the Saudis can control the price of Oil any more (OPEC did successfully for a long time but are being under cut by Shale)

These controls and pegging have the following effect on an economy.

Drives up cost of capital, discourages FDI. This disproportionately affects small companies.
We spend forex defending the naira ($3.4 just keeping it pegged as per BBC)
- http://www.bbc.com/news/business-33258942
Create a parallel market for people who want to import goods on the non approved list
Drive up prices of good on the market (effectively inflate the market for imported products)
Capital flight due to high cost of capital, so FDI leaves. Rightly capital anticipates taxation as the next move after currency controls (in order to control inflation) hence capital flees the country
Whats the extreme case: Lets imagine the pressure continues and CBN keeps defending the currency as capital flows out and balance of payments worses. Well, we dont print dollars (and thats what the CBN needs to use to defend the naira) so eventually, our forex gets so low there is a chance we do not make our debt payments, seeing this impending cliff event CBN will either stop propping up the dollar or stop making debt payments . If you stop making debt payments... well. Thats the nuclear option.

Once they stop propping up the naira, the naira crashes precipitously and the stock exchange with it (jobs go, companies fail) The exact same thing you tried to avoid happens all at once. The govt begs IMF or World Bank for a massive infusion of dollars (thats what we neeed, not naira which we can print willy nilly) and then in return IMF/ World Bank asks for higher taxes, austerity, privatization of everything in sight then kindly gives us a loan in return which we use to arrest the precipitous decline. Meanwhile we go through another period of Austerity.

The dark dark thing is this, this has happened before. Buhari refused to devalue in 82, Babangida came in and had NO CHOICE, plunged us into severe austerity (SAP). Same macro events (oil price tanked, Nigerias balance of payments skewed) led to same disastrous events (massive devaluation and privatization, failure of companies and the stock exchange and austerity). So your analysis is...over simplified and distorted.

I anticipate your response.


Response to what part?

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