PRELIMINARY ARITHMETIC'S OF THE AKWA IBOM GUBER JUDGEMENT

Let me start by saying that nothing here has the stamp of infallibility, as there may yet be facts not known to me. In that case, I would reasonably expect that friends on this page should fill in the gap where necessary, if missing facts are within the grasps of their knowledge. On that note, I proceed with the preliminary arithmetics of the Akwa Ibom Governoship Tribunal verdict as delivered today.
INEC, on the 11th of April, 2015, declared Udom's PDP winner of the gubernatorial election in Akwa Ibom with a total of 996, 071 votes in his favour. His nearest rival, the popular Umana of the APC, was said to have polled 89, 865 votes.
The tribunal today ruled that of the 996,071 which INEC credited to Odum's PDP, 566,436 voters in 18 of Akwa Ibom's 31 LGAs were disenfranchised as there was no evidence of valid accreditation. The tribunal accordingly ordered a rerun in the affected 18 LGAs. The LGAs are:
1. Onna
2. Uyo
3. Ibesikpo
4. Nsit ubium
5. Nsit Atai
6. Uruan
7. Nsit ibom
8. Itu
9. Ibiono ibom
10. Eket
11. Ikot Abasi
12. Udung UKO
13. Etinan
14. Ini
15. Ibeno
16. Etim EKPO
17. Oruk anam
18. Ikono
Out of the remaining 13LGAs, APC had won in 4 LGAs, namely:
1. Mbo
2. Udung Uko
3. Okobo
4. Urue Offong Uruko
Now, pick your calculator and let's do the maths.
996, 071 minus 566, 436=429, 635. That means, according to the verdict of the tribunal, Odum's PDP still have 429,365 valid votes standing to their credit.
Information as to whether or not the number of votes credited to Umana's APC by INEC was tampered with is yet not given. So let's assume that the 89, 865 votes of Umana remains intact. Again, let's do the maths.
Pick up your calculator and don't forget the number of valid votes standing in favour of Odum's PDP. So we roll like this:
429,635-89,865=339,770.
Now, if Odum's PDP and Umana's APC fail to appeal the verdict of the tribunal within the time permitted by law( something that is very unlikely) and rerun election is held in the affected 18 LGAs as ordered, it follows that from the word go , Odum will have 339, 770 in his favour ab initio.
Whether that advantage is sufficient or not depends on the total number of registered voters in the affected LGA. As of this moment, that information is not readily available. But sources say that the affected area covers the stronghold of Umana's APC, which implies that after all, Udom's lead may not be unassailable. He may still lose the poll if APC performs well.
According to INEC, there is a total of 1,548,531 registered voters in the 31 LGAs of AKWA Ibom State.
ANOTHER ANGLE TO THE JUDGMENT
Should the tribunal have outrightly nullified the Akwa Ibom guber election instead of keeping some valid votes in favour of Udom and merely ordering a rerun in 18 LGAs?
I want to answer in the affirmative. The evidence before the tribunal was strong enough for the election in the entire 31 LGAs to be nullified, but somehow, the tribunal didn't follow that route.
To be validly elected as governor of a state, the law demands that a candidate should poll majority of votes in at least 2/3 majority of the LGAs of that state.
What is the 2/3 of 31? It is 20.6! So, in effect, why should there not be outright nullification when PDP's Udom did not secure victory in at least 20 states?
I am tempted to say that in the eyes of the law, he is not a Governor as things stand!
APC HAS MORE THAN A FAIR CHANCE IN AKWA IBOM.

Credit:
Kennedy Friday from Port Harcourt

okay

I dont think you know wat u are writing. when you return back to world of reality, let me know. for now u can enjoy ur world of fantasy
if dey like dey shld do d election over nd over again. APC chance of winning d governorship election in akwa ibom is still ZERO

Out of 31 LGAs, the judge ordered that election should be conducted again in 18; on what ground should the judge still ask Udom to be the Governor? I expected the judge to ask the Speaker to take over as acting Governor pending when the election is conducted.

f

Even if buhari is INEC boss and tinubu returning officer while Amaechi the IG of police, the pdp will still win Akwa Ibom and Rivers fair and square! Just an academic exercise with resources to be squandered. APC and shadow chasing!

I AM A TYPICAL SON OF AKWA IBOM STATE INI LGA PRECISELY

APC CHANGE

CHANGE APC

THERE WAS NO ELECTION IN MY LGA, PDP HAS FAILED THE GOOD PEOPLE OF INI LGA AND INI PEOPLE WILL FAIL THEM AS WELL. OBONG UMANA OKON UMANA IS THE NEXT GOVERNOR OF AKWA IBOM STATE (quote me anywhere)

Stop exhibiting ur illiteracy. Who told u that umana won the 4 LGA u just mentioned?
How did u know that d cancelled lgas are umanas strong hold?
1Onna-Udoms LGA
2. Uyo-the capital city
3. Ibesikpo-ex gov attah's LGA
4. Nsit ubium-umanas LGA
5. Nsit Atai-a local government under uyo senatorial district which supports udom wholw heartedly
6. Uruan-umanas supporters
7. Nsit ibom-udom's supporters
8. Itu-udom's supporters
9. Ibiono IBOM-OBA'S zone;udom supporters
10. Eket-my LGA and senatorial district headquarters where udom represent-udom number one supporters
11. Ikot Abasi-udom'supporters
12. Udung UKO-umanas supporters
13. Etinan-udom agitators
14. Ini-udoms supporters
15. Ibeno-udoms senatorial district
16. Etim EKPO-ex governor akpabio's senatorial district
17. Oruk anam-ex governor akpabio's zone
18. Ikono-OBAS zone.
Now tell me which one among d following that is strongly umanas support base.
U are talking n writing what u know nothing about

The tribunal created a mess and it's left for the court of appeal to clear the mess that was created. As it is, nothing is sure until the appeal court decides on the matter. APC will appeal the decision of the tribunal that upheld elections held in the other 13 local governments despite overwhelming evidence that there was no election. If the appeal succeeds, election will probably be held in all the 31 LGA's instead of 18.