A history professor who has accurately predicted three decades of US
presidential races is calling a Trump win
By Roya Wolverson October 30, 2016
Donald Trump's got this. (AP Photo/David Goldman) 
   
1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the
US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds
mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign
or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign
or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national
hero.
Read this next: It’s a one-point race: Trump closes in on Clinton in a new Washington-Post-
ABC News poll
Nevermind the Access Hollywood tape about groping women against their consent. Or the
growing list of female accusers alleging an array of sexual indiscretions by Donald Trump. Or the
emotional backlash triggered by Trump’s comments in the third presidential debate about “bad
hombres” or that “nasty woman.”
This country is days away from electing Trump to its highest political office.
That’s the contention of Allan J. Lichtman, a history professor at American University and author
of Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House. Lichtman’s well-known prediction
system is based on 13 true/false “key” statements, which has been accurate in all eight US
presidential races since 1984. He told the Washington Post in September that the “keys” were
clear enough to call the election for Trump. That was before the Access Hollywood tape, the
WikiLeaks release of Clinton’s campaign emails, Trump’s panned third debate performance, and
his claim that he wouldn’t accept the election outcome if he loses.
When the Post revisited Lichtman’s initial forecast on Oct. 28, he said he’s standing by his
prediction of a Trump win. “By the narrowest of possible margins, the keys still point to a Trump
victory,” Lichtman said in an interview.
Lichtman’s system, based on his study of the presidential election cycles between 1860 and 1980,
doesn’t rely on polling data, demographic breakdowns, or other intensive number-crunching. If
six or more of the “key” statements outlined in his Predicting the Next President book are true,
the system favors the party in power. Six or more false statements indicate that the incumbent
party will lose the White House. The keys, as articulated by the Post :

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the
US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds
mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign
or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign
or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national
hero.
Read this next: It’s a one-point race: Trump closes in on Clinton in a new Washington-Post-
ABC News poll
Nevermind the Access Hollywood tape about groping women against their consent. Or the
growing list of female accusers alleging an array of sexual indiscretions by Donald Trump. Or the
emotional backlash triggered by Trump’s comments in the third presidential debate about “bad
hombres” or that “nasty woman.”
This country is days away from electing Trump to its highest political office.
That’s the contention of Allan J. Lichtman, a history professor at American University and author
of Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House. Lichtman’s well-known prediction
system is based on 13 true/false “key” statements, which has been accurate in all eight US
presidential races since 1984. He told the Washington Post in September that the “keys” were
clear enough to call the election for Trump. That was before the Access Hollywood tape, the
WikiLeaks release of Clinton’s campaign emails, Trump’s panned third debate performance, and
his claim that he wouldn’t accept the election outcome if he loses.
When the Post revisited Lichtman’s initial forecast on Oct. 28, he said he’s standing by his
prediction of a Trump win. “By the narrowest of possible margins, the keys still point to a Trump
victory,” Lichtman said in an interview.
Lichtman’s system, based on his study of the presidential election cycles between 1860 and 1980,
doesn’t rely on polling data, demographic breakdowns, or other intensive number-crunching. If
six or more of the “key” statements outlined in his Predicting the Next President book are true,
the system favors the party in power. Six or more false statements indicate that the incumbent
party will lose the White House. The keys, as articulated by the Post :
Lichtman said that six of his indicators spell bad news for the Democratic party; most recently
because of the third party “key.” Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson garnering 5% or more of
the vote is “a big sign of discontent with the party holding the White House,” Johnson said.
Meanwhile, Trump’s comments about sexual assault and accusations by other women of
wrongful conduct “didn’t change a key,” he added.
But a key could still flip, Lichtman noted, and that would throw the odds back in the Democrats’
favor. Gary Johnson’s support, for example, could drop below 5% of the popular vote.
Alternately, Trump’s unconventional antics might actually upend the prediction system
altogether. A candidate as disruptive to the status quo as Trump is anyone’s guess, he concluded:
“There can come a time when change is so cataclysmic that it changes the fundamentals of how
we do our politics.”

http://qz.com/823122/an-american-university-history-professor-who-has-accurately-predicted-three-decades-of-us-presidential-races-says-donald-trump-will-win-the-us-election/

He has some days left to be proved wrong
There's always a first time

What's my business?

kolnel:
He has some days left to be proved wrong
There's always a first time

Before you argue, read the latest where Trump has slashed the gap to just 1% with just 6 days interval. You vote tyrant Buhari, they vote Trump; kini big deal?


http://www.google.com.ng/url?q=http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/oct/30/donald-trump-closes-in-with-enthusiasm-gap-over-hi/&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwi8mKuD9IbQAhUEOxoKHcfCDL8QFggaMAU&usg=AFQjCNFoQ2gN1JQjuKaOJuxBbUegokBOsg

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/new-polls-trump-gaining-florida-emails-fbi-bombshell-clinton-a7387831.html


http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/30/politics/poll-clinton-trump-florida-north-carolina/index.html

DamiBukola:

Before you argue, read the latest where Trump has slashed the gap to just 1% with just 6 days interval. You vote tyrant Buhari, they vote Trump; kini big deal?


http://www.google.com.ng/url?q=http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/oct/30/donald-trump-closes-in-with-enthusiasm-gap-over-hi/&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwi8mKuD9IbQAhUEOxoKHcfCDL8QFggaMAU&usg=AFQjCNFoQ2gN1JQjuKaOJuxBbUegokBOsg

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/new-polls-trump-gaining-florida-emails-fbi-bombshell-clinton-a7387831.html


http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/30/politics/poll-clinton-trump-florida-north-carolina/index.html

Why do zombies have Trump?

I hope America won't regret it

Seriously i like Trump because of his straightforwardness, unlike Hilary who is clearly manipulative, she is dubious. I want Trump to win and America will be great again.

Mrdecent:
I hope America won't regret it

when you regret supporting the number 1 tyrant beside Idi Amin as Nigeria's president then America will regret it too. You can't like Buhari who trumped democratically elected government and hate Trump.

DamiBukola:

when you regret supporting the number 1 tyrant beside Idi Amin as Nigeria's president then America will regret it too. You can't like Buhari who trumped democratically elected government and hate Trump.

We talking America here bro

Mrdecent:

We talking America here bro

My lady is there and she is a citizen so she's gonna vote. You see why I have interest?

Now tell me why you supported Buhari who in a saner climes shouldn't be a councillor and why you are against Trump?

DamiBukola:

My lady is there and she is a citizen so she's gonna vote. You see why I have interest?

Now tell me why you supported Buhari who in a saner climes shouldn't be a councillor and why you are against Trump?

I no get time to explain my choice. It's my business

Mrdecent:
I no get time to explain my choice. It's my business

Hypocrisy

DamiBukola:
Hypocrisy

I know