The brain behind the APC merger that ousted the then incumbent president,Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the last few days seem to be losing his grip on the party he so beget. The recently conducted Ondo State APC primary and subsequent Ondo gubernatorial election are pointers in this direction. First, his preferred candidate Dr. Segun Abraham came a distant third, not satisfied with the outcome of the primary, he directed the National Leadership of the party to conduct another primary. His plea to the Odigie Oyegun led APC fell on deaf ears as he(Oyegun) insisted that the Ondo state APC primary was free and fair. Irked by the leadership's resolve to stand firm on their decision, Tinubu directed Olusola Oke to defect to AD and contest against the then APC gubernatorial flag bearer Chief Rotimi Akeredolu.
It's no brainer that Asiwaju wields a lot of influence across the South West States; most governors and senators are his protégé. In light of this, the political analysts predicted Olusola Oke(AD) to emerge the governor elect after the November 27 election. It was shocking to many when Olusola Oke came a distant third. This is one of the few battles Asiwaju has lost in the party, the others being his preferred candidates Femi Gbajabiamila and Ahmed Lawan outsmarted in their quest of becoming the Speaker House of Representatives and Senate President respectively.

Obviously

Time will tell

in politics (life generally), you win some, you lose some.
BAT has lost many battles & won key wars.

Day11:
Time will tell

The next major elections will be in 2019, are you saying we should wait till then to confirm if he has lost grip?

ivandragon:
in politics (life generally), you win some, you lose some.

BAT has lost many battles & won key wars.

Don't you think he is losing so many wars lately?

AyamStarch:

Don't you think he is losing so many wars lately?

well, I personally do not think so.

I say this because I believe that what might be considered a 'severe blow' to one person, might just be a minor setback in reality, it all depends on what the person considers to be his/her primary interest.

for instance, as long as BAT has Lagos, he can recover from ANY other loss. for him, Lagos is the key, every other expansion was just a political adventure/misadventure, important no doubt, but can be written off as a bad investment.

he lost the battles for senate, HoR, ministerial appointments...

but he won the wars for retaining Lagos, getting Oyegun as Chairman APC (turning sour though), PMB as president.

as long as Lagos is a safe haven for him, he will recover from anything... except of course PMB decides to unleash the security forces on BAT...

in that case bye bye BAT...

He does not mind losing the grip. His alleged obscene wealth is at stake. So he would rather lose political clout and status than lose his wealth and liberty. The fear of PMB is the begining of Tinubu's wisdom. So the infamous Jagbadan is finally cut to size.

In fact he has officially given up the status of "APC National Leader" to PMB. I guess Aisha's abracadabra has finally paid off. The ones to get the heat going forward are the senate leadership and the opposition.

But God is our stregnth.

On the flip side, the foundation of APC is already split, and no amount of damage control can remedy it. In fact I'm of the opinion that Buhari and his pawns would never trust Jagbadan again or they will cry at last. So the only way to have peace in APC is for Jagbadan to steer clear of active NATIONAL politicking. And I have the hunch he has finally accpted his fate.

AyamStarch:
The brain behind the APC merger that ousted the then incumbent president,Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the last few days seem to be losing his grip on the party he so beget. The recently conducted Ondo State APC primary and subsequent Ondo gubernatorial election are pointers in this direction. First, his preferred candidate Dr. Segun Abraham came a distant third, not satisfied with the outcome of the primary, he directed the National Leadership of the party to conduct another primary. His plea to the Odigie Oyegun led APC fell on deaf ears as he(Oyegun) insisted that the Ondo state APC primary was free and fair. Irked by the leadership's resolve to stand firm on their decision, Tinubu directed Olusola Oke to defect to AD and contest against the then APC gubernatorial flag bearer Chief Rotimi Akeredolu.
It's no brainer that Asiwaju wields a lot of influence across the South West States; most governors and senators are his protégé. In light of this, the political analysts predicted Olusola Oke(AD) to emerge the governor elect after the November 27 election. It was shocking to many when Olusola Oke came a distant third. This is one of the few battles Asiwaju has lost in the party, the others being his preferred candidates Femi Gbajabiamila and Ahmed Lawan outsmarted in their quest of becoming the Speaker House of Representatives and Senate President respectively.

pchukwudi:


In fact he has officially given up the status of "APC National Leader" to PMB. I guess Aisha's abracadabra has finally paid off. The ones to get the heat going forward are the senate leadership and the opposition.

On the flip side, the foundation of APC is already split, and no amount of damage control can remedy it. So the only way to have peace in APC is for Jagbadan to steer clear of active NATIONAL politicking.

I don't think the APC is split yet rather they are cracks that need mending..Still too early for calls of his retirement from partisan politics..Every kingmaker in the Nigerian political scene won't quit politics until he is as old as the biblical Methuselah.To me he is still a very vital cog in the APC machinery

ivandragon:


well, I personally do not think so.

I say this because I believe that what might be considered a 'severe blow' to one person, might just be a minor setback in reality, it all depends on what the person considers to be his/her primary interest.

for instance, as long as BAT has Lagos, he can recover from ANY other loss. for him, Lagos is the key, every other expansion was just a political adventure/misadventure, important no doubt, but can be written off as a bad investment.

he lost the battles for senate, HoR, ministerial appointments...

but he won the wars for retaining Lagos, getting Oyegun as Chairman APC (turning sour though), PMB as president.

as long as Lagos is a safe haven for him, he will recover from anything... except of course PMB decides to unleash the security forces on BAT...

in that case bye bye BAT...

Lagos was never under any serious threat of being conquered by PDP
Oyegun loyalty lies with Atiku/Buhari rather than Asiwaju

ivandragon:


well, I personally do not think so.

I say this because I believe that what might be considered a 'severe blow' to one person, might just be a minor setback in reality, it all depends on what the person considers to be his/her primary interest.

for instance, as long as BAT has Lagos, he can recover from ANY other loss. for him, Lagos is the key, every other expansion was just a political adventure/misadventure, important no doubt, but can be written off as a bad investment.

he lost the battles for senate, HoR, ministerial appointments...

but he won the wars for retaining Lagos, getting Oyegun as Chairman APC (turning sour though), PMB as president.

as long as Lagos is a safe haven for him, he will recover from anything... except of course PMB decides to unleash the security forces on BAT...

in that case bye bye BAT...

he is lucky because ambode is on his first term, if now, an anti Tinubu candidate will be imposed in Lagos like they did in Ondo and nothing will happen

basilo102:

he is lucky because ambode is on his first term, if now, an anti Tinubu candidate will be imposed in Lagos like they did in Ondo and nothing will happen

everything is subject to change.

but political elections since 1999 shows that BAT always finds a way to have his way in what goes on in Lagos.

on numerous occasions, PDP tried to 'conquer' Lagos.

maybe now that an insider (BRF) might have 'decamped', he will reveal some strategies that would reveal BAT vulnerability...

AyamStarch:

Lagos was never under any serious threat of being conquered by PDP
Oyegun loyalty lies with Atiku/Buhari rather than Asiwaju

Lagos has always been under threat.

that BAT has always overcome challenges does not diminish the magnitude of the challenge.

remember how OBJ tried to cripple the state by withholding its share of state allocation for years in the build up to the 2003 elections? how many state governors would have survived that?

the rash of political assassinations that took place in Lagos in the build up to the 2007 elections? the war cries about conquering Lagos? drastic circumstances, drastic measures I would surmise...

the 2015 election recorded the highest number of seats in the NASS won by the opposition in Lagos. 4 or 5 seats might not seem a lot, but in the context of Lagos politics, its a testament to a hard fought battle.

it was only the 2011 election that BAT had it easy.


As for Oyegun, please refer to Tom Ikimi's interview on the matter.

Oyegun was BAT's choice, but as we know in politics... no permanent friends or foes, just interest. so Oyegun has simply 'decamped'.

ivandragon:


Lagos has always been under threat.

that BAT has always overcome challenges does not diminish the magnitude of the challenge.

remember how OBJ tried to cripple the state by withholding its share of state allocation for years in the build up to the 2003 elections? how many state governors would have survived that?

the rash of political assassinations that took place in Lagos in the build up to the 2007 elections? the war cries about conquering Lagos? drastic circumstances, drastic measures I would surmise...

the 2015 election recorded the highest number of seats in the NASS won by the opposition in Lagos. 4 or 5 seats might not seem a lot, but in the context of Lagos politics, its a testament to a hard fought battle.

it was only the 2011 election that BAT had it easy.


As for Oyegun, please refer to Tom Ikimi's interview on the matter.

Oyegun was BAT's choice, but as we know in politics... no permanent friends or foes, just interest. so Oyegun has simply 'decamped'.

Deep seated facts

ivandragon:


Lagos has always been under threat.

that BAT has always overcome challenges does not diminish the magnitude of the challenge.

remember how OBJ tried to cripple the state by withholding its share of state allocation for years in the build up to the 2003 elections? how many state governors would have survived that?

the rash of political assassinations that took place in Lagos in the build up to the 2007 elections? the war cries about conquering Lagos? drastic circumstances, drastic measures I would surmise...

the 2015 election recorded the highest number of seats in the NASS won by the opposition in Lagos. 4 or 5 seats might not seem a lot, but in the context of Lagos politics, its a testament to a hard fought battle.

it was only the 2011 election that BAT had it easy.


As for Oyegun, please refer to Tom Ikimi's interview on the matter.

Oyegun was BAT's choice, but as we know in politics... no permanent friends or foes, just interest. so Oyegun has simply 'decamped'.

Good one

ivandragon:


well, I personally do not think so.

I say this because I believe that what might be considered a 'severe blow' to one person, might just be a minor setback in reality, it all depends on what the person considers to be his/her primary interest.

for instance, as long as BAT has Lagos, he can recover from ANY other loss. for him, Lagos is the key, every other expansion was just a political adventure/misadventure, important no doubt, but can be written off as a bad investment.

he lost the battles for senate, HoR, ministerial appointments...

but he won the wars for retaining Lagos, getting Oyegun as Chairman APC (turning sour though), PMB as president.

as long as Lagos is a safe haven for him, he will recover from anything... except of course PMB decides to unleash the security forces on BAT...

in that case bye bye BAT...

In other words, he is loosing all wars lately.
All his few wins are things of the past

At the moment he isn't losing,time will tell as matters will starts arising and the name JAGABAN will not slip from their lips,Bourdillon will turn their backyard again#observing#

ivandragon:
in politics (life generally), you win some, you lose some.

BAT has lost many battles & won key wars.

He went pass his limit..only to realize after the ship has sailed.

Now..a ship that has sailed miles can't make a 360 for a jonzing mate.

Either to wake and catchup..or remain on island.

Jagaban miscalculated..is all politics

Even my great grand fatter who died in 1996 knows that Tinubu has lost it..

He should just respect himself retire from politics and enjoy his wealth, because the way buhari and his boys are going, they are ready to break his neck ooo.

Olumaeme:
Even my great grand fatter who died in 1996 knows that Tinubu has lost it..

where's thy chill bro

Fashx007:
At the moment he isn't losing,time will tell as matters will starts arising and the name JAGABAN will not slip from their lips,Bourdillon will turn their backyard again#observing#

I strongly believe he has something up his sleeves, you can't just relegate Jagaban to the background that easily