How PDP Can Take The Presidency In 2019 - Politics - Nairaland
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| How PDP Can Take The Presidency In 2019 by Nobody: 12:09pm On Dec 01, 2016 |
By Olaleye Ifelola One of the unspoken rules of Nigerian politics is to never pick a Vice President from your Major Opponent’s region. This was the very mistake that GEJ made during the 2015 elections by picking Namadi Sambo from Kaduna which is in the north west of the country. GEJ erroneously thought that picking a core northerner would get him a sizeable vote from the North west. However he would have been better off choosing even a south westerner as a running mate. Sambo could not even win his own state simply because PMB was also from the region. A politician must always look at a running mate as the ability to reach out to zones that can be reached. The APC camp understood this well, hence they never bothered to pick a south Southerner/Easterner for VP as it would do no good trying to get votes from Goodluck’s stronghold. Making the calculations they realised Goodluck had both SS/SE. GEJ‘s VP was from the North West, therefore he opened the South west for a contest because no south westerner was represented in his government. To dip into the South west, APC simply picked a Christian South Westerner so that westerners going to the ballot with ethnic sentiments would easily pick the Buhari/Osinbanjo ticket. Going into 2019 any attempt to raise a Northern Presidential candidate for the PDP would end in futility as the PDP is currently viewed as a party for southerners. Picking from the south west too isn’t an option as there are already numerous APC surrogates in that region. It would be better for the PDP to go in with a south south candidate again-as that would also rally the vote of the south East. If Osinbanjo retains his candidacy as VP then forget the S/West and look for the least core northern State to give the VP candidate to, this would be the North Central. A well-known, respectable Muslim in that region can bring the votes of many already frustrated Muslims in favour of the PDP. The PDP candidate would of course glean Christian votes in that region easily. Once again picking any Northerner for the PDP presidency would not work because the S/East and S/South wouldn’t risk marginalization just for another Northerner. The northerners are certainly ‘loyal’ and would not support any other northerner even in the face of hardship. In fact the PDP would lose flat out if it picks a Northerner. Since the South west is the most populated region in Nigeria and it houses Lagos-which is a melting pot of cultures, it is going to be a battle ground region. The PDP candidate would need to intensify his/her campaign in the south west making a case majorly for his sound economic policies. The South West would easily support a PDP candidate if he is perceived to be better than Buhari and especially if Osinbanjo is dumped as PMB’s vice. The most important places for PDP to campaign intensively would be Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, Ekiti, Kaduna, Adamawa, Taraba and the entire North central. 1 Like |
| Re: How PDP Can Take The Presidency In 2019 by herzern1(m): 12:11pm On Dec 01, 2016 |
| Re: How PDP Can Take The Presidency In 2019 by eyeview: 1:56pm On Dec 01, 2016 |
This analogy is faulty on many grounds which i wont bother to start pointing out now. My permutation for PDP's best chances is simply this. A north central/South east ticket. Either can be president or vp |
| Re: How PDP Can Take The Presidency In 2019 by tolufase: 2:32pm On Dec 01, 2016 |
I doubt the possibility of PDP winning 2019 presidential election. Allowing APC to win two of their controlling states has further reduced their chances of winning 2019 presidential election despite poor economic policy of APC led FG. |
| Re: How PDP Can Take The Presidency In 2019 by MrPolitics: 3:17pm On Dec 01, 2016 |
eyeview: Tbh the pdp needs a stong man from northwest/northeast as presidential candidate and vp from southwest/southeast to pull numbers |
| Re: How PDP Can Take The Presidency In 2019 by Atiku2019: 3:35pm On Dec 01, 2016 |
Very Simple........ An Atiku will do the magic  All Atiku has to do is 1) Meet the Northern Christians....Buhari's Lackadaisical attitude towards the unwarranted killing of Northern Christians by fulani herdsmen .Benue, Nasarrawa, Bauchi, Abuja,Adamawa,Kogi, Plateau,Niger state, Southern Kaduna...Even the Shiites will register surely to vote ...all these peeps are waiting for 2019 to revolt at the polls. 2) Pick an Igbo Candidate as Running mate ( That will bring in 99 %block votes from SouthSouth and Southeast including all Igbos in various state outside the SS/SE region.... 3) Atiku surely needs Tinubu support to neutralise APC in southwest  ... ( Jagaban Borgu we dey jail oh, Teach your ex-boys that you are still the Jagaban Of Nigeria  )4) Only an Atiku can match Buhari in 2019. 2 Likes |
| Re: How PDP Can Take The Presidency In 2019 by Nobody: 3:37pm On Dec 01, 2016 |
Excuse me, bringing someone from the North west isn't going to work because that is Buhari's stronghold and they like him in spite of what you think. secondly PDP has lost many surrogates in that region already. PMB would simply unleash El-rufai, the Emir of Kano and that persons political ambition would be stopped on inception. you don't expect to beat Buhari in his own back yard. PDP needs someone from its stronghold to campaign and then pluck other region from PMB MrPolitics: |
| Re: How PDP Can Take The Presidency In 2019 by Atiku2019: 3:40pm On Dec 01, 2016 |
00laleyedavid: Please Buhari controls only the Northeast and Northwest... ( We have Christian minorities in those states too) NorthCentral peeps are all waiting to revolt in 2019... 2 Likes |
| Re: How PDP Can Take The Presidency In 2019 by Nobody: 3:43pm On Dec 01, 2016 |
Your calculations are good but i have some issues with your confidence that the entire south south would support an Igbo especially since the Igbo would be a VP. You need to realise that Buhari is trying desperately to win over S/southerners by cleaning up Ogoni land and negotiating with NDA. Remember it was this same overconfidence that finished GEJ in the South West Atiku2019: |
| Re: How PDP Can Take The Presidency In 2019 by Nobody: 3:48pm On Dec 01, 2016 |
Wonderful! you just picked a Presidential/VP from the two least populated regions in Nigeria. while leaving Buhari with the biggest two North west and South west. by the end of that kind of election there would be no such thing as PDP again because APC would cruise to victory eyeview: 1 Like |
| Re: How PDP Can Take The Presidency In 2019 by Nobody: 3:52pm On Dec 01, 2016 |
People vote based on two sentiments in a Nigerian election, ethnic and religious. How are you sure they would vote based on the religious bias Atiku2019: |
| Re: How PDP Can Take The Presidency In 2019 by Atiku2019: 3:52pm On Dec 01, 2016 |
00laleyedavid: 1) The Recession has massively depleted Buhari's popularity all over Nigeria, Which I don't think he'll come out of this mess before 2019. Cleaning up Ogoni will not reduce the price of foodstuffs in Nigeria... The current Recession will become a major selling point for any oppostion Presidential candidate... My Brother just visit any NorthCentral State food market and scream "I Trust in Buhari" na suicide mission be that now oh 2 Likes |
| Re: How PDP Can Take The Presidency In 2019 by Atiku2019: 3:55pm On Dec 01, 2016 |
00laleyedavid: Which NorthCentral Candidate has the political clout to make an Impact in 2019. A David Mark will loose even in Benue his state. 1 Like |
| Re: How PDP Can Take The Presidency In 2019 by bakynes(m): 4:02pm On Dec 01, 2016 |
I think PDP should start talking to Either Musa Rabiu Kwankwoso or Atiku to defect to the PDP and pick up the presidential ticket. Kwankwoso can split in huge numbers Buhari's vote in the Core North. Then a south westerner as VP. That shd wrestle power from the APC in 2019. You might ask me why a SWner? Reason is that the SE and SS is naturally geared towards the PDP already and their natural hate for Buhari so fielding a popular SW candidate as VP may also significantly split the votes of SW in favour of PDP. That way PDP splits the vote of core North( NW & NE) and SW and overwhelming votes from SE and SS. The NW, NE, NC and SW will be the battleground for both parties with SS and SE for PDP that might just get them back into Aso-Rock. If Osinbajo is replaced with a SEner or SSner it wouldnt sway votes to APC and that will jeorpadize the support they got from SW and SW may move in favour of PDP. 1 Like |
| Re: How PDP Can Take The Presidency In 2019 by modath(f): 4:04pm On Dec 01, 2016 |
00laleyedavid: OP!! You finish work!! Nothing to add other than pray that oil price coperates so we can be lifted out of this economic doldrums, as for 2019, it's settled, we are riding this bus to its final stop.... I'm realistic, wishing doesn't come into this. 2023 is where we should focus... Atiku2019, I expect you in my mention as usual to come & tell me how 2019 is so sure for Atiku... Someone that has never won in his own domain (governorship doesn't count) in his many failed attempts.... 1 Like |
| Re: How PDP Can Take The Presidency In 2019 by Nobody: 4:04pm On Dec 01, 2016 |
Even people knew that GEJ had competency issues but still voted him into power massively. People already feel that Buhari inherited this mess from PDP's misrule of 16 years and may still blame jona for it. we need a candidate from the south who can get votes based on sentiment and a vp that can pluck some of buharis potential vote. Atiku2019: |
| Re: How PDP Can Take The Presidency In 2019 by Nobody: 4:07pm On Dec 01, 2016 |
I like your calculations too. very pragmatic! bakynes: |
| Re: How PDP Can Take The Presidency In 2019 by modath(f): 4:08pm On Dec 01, 2016 |
bakynes: You are talking about the old kwakwanso not the one Ganduje has turned people against...
This 2nd part I won't even bother, na to just laff cos the conjectures are not even probable. |
| Re: How PDP Can Take The Presidency In 2019 by bakynes(m): 4:11pm On Dec 01, 2016 |
00laleyedavid:Hausa-Fulani will not take a Northern VP candidate Serzly just like you have seen in the case of Namandi Sambo. |
| Re: How PDP Can Take The Presidency In 2019 by bakynes(m): 4:14pm On Dec 01, 2016 |
modath: Kwakwanso and Atiku are the next influential politicians in the North after Buhari no other candidates apart from these two can wrestle power from Buhari. |
| Re: How PDP Can Take The Presidency In 2019 by Nobody: 4:16pm On Dec 01, 2016 |
The North Central is somehow culturally south sha. They may follow if PDP plays its game well[ bakynes: |
| Re: How PDP Can Take The Presidency In 2019 by malton: 4:17pm On Dec 01, 2016 |
. |
| Re: How PDP Can Take The Presidency In 2019 by Nobody: 4:19pm On Dec 01, 2016 |
I believe if you bring Atiku, even S/south and S/east may follow Buhari. Igbos generally dont like northerners, whether its buhari or Atiku. Buhari is an incubent and it would take real strategising to kick him out of power bakynes: |
| Re: How PDP Can Take The Presidency In 2019 by hysteriabox(m): 5:00pm On Dec 01, 2016 |
Hmmm... nice analogy. PDP will have to do the needful in order to win 1. Rebrand and purge the party 2. Consolidate their strongholds- SS and SE, what remains of their SW states wont hold for long. 3. Woo back political gladiators from NW, NE and SW. 4. Be very proactive. Nigerians ll not fall for empty promises anymore My take is A. Kwankwaso, Sule Lamido or Atiku are the only ones I see whom can weild much power over northern votes. B. Winning the north means having a core northerner for president. Vice ll not fly with them at all C. An igbo presidential ticket ll need the likes of Rochas to woo the north cos he seems to be somene whom they believe could support their agenda. D. The SW ll vote based on reason rather than based on ethnic/religious sentiments. Except Tinubu floats a party, I dont think they ll hesitate in viting anyone with the rright qualities I ll go with either i. Kwankwaso/obi ii. Rochas/lamido iii. Atiku/obi |
| Re: How PDP Can Take The Presidency In 2019 by stsinner: 5:18pm On Dec 01, 2016 |
Atiku2019:former gov.Aliyu Babangida of Niger state and SP saraki are strong politicans from NC. But dont forget that the electorates are swayed by emotions & not by their brains. |
| Re: How PDP Can Take The Presidency In 2019 by frugal(m): 5:59pm On Dec 01, 2016 |
The only south southerner that can command vote from that region at the moment is still GEJ. But I don't think he's coming back. GEJ lost the election because he and his team failed to divide the northern vote like they did in 2011 thereby leaving the majority vote in that region to PMB. |
| Re: How PDP Can Take The Presidency In 2019 by CSTR13: 7:32pm On Dec 01, 2016 |
00laleyedavid:Are you kidding me? Buhari won with just 2 million votes even with overwhelming SW support and massive rigging in the north including significant voter apathy in the east. All the SW supported candidates since 1999 have failed to clinch the presidency, except buhari for obvious reasons and GEJ who was more or less supported cross board. Igbos have beaten yorubas to the punch time and time again in determining who becomes president. The only exception this time is the north. The igbo voting bloc is ubiquitous, with a population spread everywhere including the SW. Unless the north is rooting for the SW, only a foolish politician would choose south west voting bloc over the east. Even the unstable nature of the SW as an ally makes their support a time grenade |
| Re: How PDP Can Take The Presidency In 2019 by Nobody: 9:12pm On Dec 01, 2016 |
You only believe the S/ West voting bloc is not ubiquitous because you haven't seen any party raise a S/western candidate as a presidential candidate in recent times. Secondly, the s/west voted for Goodluck during the 2011 elections. In fact no candidate has ever won Aso Rock without the massive support of westerners CSTR13: |
| Re: How PDP Can Take The Presidency In 2019 by Nobody: 10:42pm On Dec 01, 2016 |
Obj won without South West votes in 1999 |
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