ImadeUReadThis:


Stop defending the gross foolishness and incompetence of this APC govt under Buhari.

Every reputable economic forum has laid the blame squarely on Buhari's incompetence.


Secondly, for all Goodluck's short comings, the state of the economy was never in doubt under his watch.

Now it should be abundantly clear with an economy in recession that Buhari and his team are gross failures.

Stop defending Jonathan as if he were a genius. The Naira only stabilized due to availability of dollars because of high oil prices.

hear yourself.... "we did not float then because we didn't have enough FDIs but we should float now" Even your GEJ was hesitant to float as he devalued the Naira 3 times. why didnt he just float? NOI said in 2014 Dec we were no longer buoyant and FG was borrowing to pay salaries.


Note in my diary both GEJ and PMB are failures. He should just resign but i will not just absolve GEJ of his faults here.

ImadeUReadThis:


[s]Here is a simplified version of how Buhari through both gross incompetence and corruption destroyed the naira:


For 6yrs, the Jonathan administration was able to maintain a stable forex rate for the naira which hovered at around 156 to the USD.

This feat was achieved through a steady supply of forex sales into the local economy by the CBN .

The last immediate Governor of the CBN, by estimation, provided $100bn to local businesses during his 5yr stint.

This huge amount was made possible due to high oil receipts to govt coffers buoyed by a strong and growing confidence in our economy.

The naira began its decline through a deliberate and well thought out policy move by the CBN to devalue it on the heels of lowering oil prices.

The naira then saw a dip to 178 naira during the twilight years of the past administration in the closing quater of 2014. This policy was borne out of both necessity and commonsense.

Further decline in the naira was recorded in the buildup to the 2015 general elections not out of fiscal constraints but owing largely to an unstable political atmosphere. Investors being rightfully wary of the careless rhetrioc and threats of unleashing violence by the opposition party and it's candidate (just as Buhari promised and executed in 2011 after he lost out), led to most investors fleeing for safety. The stock market was heavily hit and the naira was not spared as well which saw the naira dipping to as low as 210 to the USD.

After the vagabonds secured their mandate in May, 2015 the naira gradually regained some value to 199. This wasn't out of any economic masterstoke by the Buhari adminstration but merely due to the fact that Nigeria had survived one of her most tense political situations in her history.

This value remained stubbornly and artificially stagnant for over one year leading to the greatest disparity between the official rates to that of the parallel market.


Fig 1: Naira trend from Jan 2011 to May, 2015


The politics of the naira had now taken precedence over the economics of its true value

Despite several calls to float the naira, the arrogating mediocre at the helms refused to do the needful.




The naira took several hits further when the man at the helms refused to announce a cabinet and issue any economic road map. Rather, the man in charge went on a global pilgrimage tour prophesying his mythical Puritan sainthood while denouncing his fellow country men as indisciplined criminals and preaching to whoever had time to waste that Nigeria was broke. If there was ever a worst demarketing agent, here came Buhari to out shadow him at the task of rubbishing our nation to which he was elected to promote.

The Buhari govt will then set out to try old and discarded rubbish fiscal policies that have never worked and will never work in trying to buoy his artificial currency. He introduced import restrictions on items without providing insentives to promote alternatives within our local manufacturing sector. He isolated our economy from the rest of the world by introducing silly restrictions on individual consumption and use of their ATMs while abroad and on the net. He favored his cronies and family members with subsidized forex gotten from the CBN with a note from him which they dumped on the parallel market to get huge returns. He then decided to stop all ongoing govt projects and payments to contractors in order to keep our foreign reserves hovering at $26bn (down from $30bn he inherited on May,29).

Not stopping there, he squandered much needed forex in compensating his theiving governors who supported him in the last election. I know you will say that both APC and PDP controlled states got a bailout but why should Osun state get a bailout of 40bn naira - an amount 400% higher than the next highest state recipient! The osun bailout was nothing but anavenue to compensate Bola Ahmed Tinubu since the rascal governor of osun did not use the huge sum - which amounted to a year's earnigs for the state to offset owed civil servants' salaries.



Fig 2: the Dullard's voodoo tricks effect on the naira

Not only did he squander the LNG funds in compensating his theiving accomplices, he forced banks through his bailout agreement to reschedule debts owed by states. This led to a huge shortfall in liquidity flows to banks since the states where their biggest debtors. The antecedents were shaky banks that led to a lot of branch closures, staff retrenchment and a spike in interests rates further contracting the economy.

The dullard will later apply for a 2 trillion naira supplementary budget based on loans in late November , 2015 claiming the inherited budget he met "was no more feasible in light of harsh economic realities". Now what exactly did he do with the 4.5 trillion budget and the additional 2trillion naira supplementary budget for 2015? Not a damn thing!

It gets worse. In early 2016, the dullard issued another draconian decree on our economy restricting forex sales to local manufacturers; declaring they "source forex from other sources" - the black market to be precise which his cronies where now supplying forex to. This saw the naira crashing at well over 320 to a dollar.

So who exactly is our forex for since Buhari has restricted virtually every one but himself, his cronies, family members , political jobbers and newly acquired business affiliates to forex access ?

As things stand now our foreign reserves is just sitting fallow in foriegn bank accounts servicing foreign interests and businesses.

So who in God's holy name does our foriegn reserves epp?[/s]

A huge pile of partisan crap. When more desperate attention is given to politicise the argument, you end up contradicting yourself and and rubbishing your own supposed intelligence.

I stopped paying attention to the rest of your writeup when you asserted that statements by buhari and fear of violence from Buhari is what led to the Naira devaluing to N199 and N210 to $1 and investors leaving Nigeria. Of course your beautiful nonsense narrative would sit very well with a lot of folk in your divide, so good job!

obailala:

A huge pile of partisan crap. When more desperate attention is given to politicise the argument, you end up contradicting yourself and and rubbishing your own supposed intelligence.

I stopped paying attention to the rest of your writeup when you asserted that statements by buhari and fear of violence from Buhari is what led to the Naira devaluing to N199 and N210 to $1 and investors leaving Nigeria. Of course your beautiful nonsense narrative would sit very well with a lot of folk in your divide, so good job!

I do know a lot of of middle class families were securing for them selves 10, 20, 30 and even for some up to 50 thousand dollars. Why? The answer is simple unless you have have given yourself to lies: between late 2014 and early 2015 every one thought that there would be a serious outbreak of violence if and when Jonathan won re-election (because no one seriously expected him to loose and more to the point no one expected that Jonathan would choose not to to contest the results in the event that he lost.
For both scenarios, :Jonathan winning or loosing and contesting the results immediately, wide spread violence was expected. The evidence to support this assumption was everywhere.
The north was already on fumes, all it to to torch of massive killings and destruction was a spark. And the election was a roaring flame.
On the flip side the south south and the south east were mentally primed to watch see what happens and then retaliate.
The trouble was that in the course of retaliation, South West interests and individuals would be affected. I leave you to imagine the reaction of here in the south west. Bear in mind though that the reaction in the southwest, even in lagos would be diverse. This is a because, the violence which began in the north would have affected a number of of southwesterners so the response would be indiscriminate.

Knowing all of this, if you had the ability to convert a part of your liquid cash savings to foreign currencies in preparation for the possibility of having to flee over the borders, or through the airports, would you not have done what you could do to protect your family?

Think about the thousands other middle class families who were thinking the same.

Think about all the companies foreign and local, whose risk assessment had come to the same conclusion and were converting as much of their holdings, (cash assets) as possible to foreign currency and sent same out.

What would have been the overall effect of this thinking to the foreign currency holdings of the Nigerian economy.

If you are honest, you can relate this to the the election period.

EMANY01:


I do know a lot of of middle class families were securing for them selves 10, 20, 30 and even for some up to 50 thousand dollars. Why? The answer is simple unless you have have given yourself to lies: between late 2014 and early 2015 every one thought that there would be a serious outbreak of violence if and when Jonathan won re-election (because no one seriously expected him to loose and more to the point no one expected that Jonathan would choose not to to contest the results in the event that he lost.
For both scenarios, :Jonathan winning or loosing and contesting the results immediately, wide spread violence was expected. The evidence to support this assumption was everywhere.
The north was already on fumes, all it to to torch of massive killings and destruction was a spark. And the election was a roaring flame.
On the flip side the south south and the south east were mentally primed to watch see what happens and then retaliate.
The trouble was that in the course of retaliation, South West interests and individuals would be affected. I leave you to imagine the reaction of here in the south west. Bear in mind though that the reaction in the southwest, even in lagos would be diverse. This is a because, the violence which began in the north would have affected a number of of southwesterners so the response would be indiscriminate.

Knowing all of this, if you had the ability to convert a part of your liquid cash savings to foreign currencies in preparation for the possibility of having to flee over the borders, or through the airports, would you not have done what you could do to protect your family?

Think about the thousands other middle class families who were thinking the same.

Think about all the companies foreign and local, whose risk assessment had come to the same conclusion and were converting as much of their holdings, (cash assets) as possible to foreign currency and sent same out.

What would have been the overall effect of this thinking to the foreign currency holdings of the Nigerian economy.

If you are honest, you can relate this to the the election period.

When you try to be too smart in analysing simple things, you begin to outsmart yourself in your own theories. 1 + 1 is 2, there's nothing complex about that but you are trying to make it as complex as possible in order to force-fit it into your political narrative.

Nigeria gets over 90% of its forex inflow from oil sales and with oil prices averaging above $100 in the periods between 2010 to 2014, Nigeria enjoyed relatively high forex income within the period. That high forex income made it possible for the CBN to sustain its injection of forex cheaply into the system on a weekly basis to maintain the market price at N150-N160 for those years. But as soon as oil prices began dropping from Mid-2014 (it dropped to half of what it typically was), fx inflow into the reserves began dropping as well and consequently, the amount in the foreign reserves started dropping rapidly. See chart below:


http://www.tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/foreign-exchange-reserves

Of course with the reserves dropping so rapidly, the reason why the Naira had to be devalued was obvious, the then finance minister upon seeing the trend also warned Nigerians to brace up for the worst; the worst which of course happened later in the day after the new admin took power. Of course in order to checkmate the further drop in reserves, the new govt had to start restricting the release of forex from the reserves into the market and those 'INEVITABLE' restrictions obviously blasted the Naira to its worthless value today. Hence the reason why I get irked whenever i hear people accusing Buhari of killing Naira by restricting forex release from an obviously depleted reserve.

With all these however, I'm quite amazed at this new ridiculous partisan explanation I'm reading here today; saying that it was Buhari's threat of violence that started killing the Naira before the elections and then his incompetence killed and buried it further after the elections. Such ridiculous pettiness! Nothing wey person no go read from people desperate to beatify the last admin and crucify the present one.

obailala:
When you try to be too smart in analysing simple things, you begin to outsmart yourself in your own theories. 1 + 1 is 2, there's nothing complex about that but you are trying to make it as complex as possible in order to force-fit it into your political narrative.

Nigeria gets over 90% of its forex inflow from oil sales and with oil prices averaging above $100 in the periods between 2010 to 2014, Nigeria enjoyed relatively high forex income within the period. That high forex income made it possible for the CBN to sustain its injection of forex cheaply into the system on a weekly basis to maintain the market price at N150-N160 for those years. But as soon as oil prices began dropping from Mid-2014 (it dropped to half of what it typically was), fx inflow into the reserves began dropping as well and consequently, the amount in the foreign reserves started dropping rapidly. See chart below:


http://www.tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/foreign-exchange-reserves

Of course with the reserves dropping so rapidly, the reason why the Naira had to be devalued was obvious, the then finance minister upon seeing the trend also warned Nigerians to brace up for the worst; the worst which of course happened later in the day after the new admin took power. Of course in order to checkmate the further drop in reserves, the new govt had to start restricting the release of forex from the reserves into the market and those 'INEVITABLE' restrictions obviously blasted the Naira to its worthless value today. Hence the reason why I get irked whenever i hear people accusing Buhari of killing Naira by restricting forex release from an obviously depleted reserve.

With all these however, I'm quite amazed at this new ridiculous partisan explanation I'm reading here today; saying that it was Buhari's threat of violence that started killing the Naira before the elections and then his incompetence killed and buried it further after the elections. Such ridiculous pettiness! Nothing wey person no go read from people desperate to beatify the last admin and crucify the present one.

Get irked all you want, to dismiss offhand the claims that sociological factors exercerbated the plight of the Naira over the time frame in question removes any spec of credibility in your own arguments.
Have you ever wondered what the terms "market sentiment", and "investor confidence" mean, and how they apply to the economy?
You are probably one of those who screaming that the failure of this Administration to appoint ministers within the first six months of office had zero effect on the Economy.
Carry go I do not engage with folks who would much rather be dishonest in discussions like this.

EMANY01:


Get irked all you want, to dismiss offhand the claims that sociological factors exercerbated the plight of the Naira over the time frame in question removes any spec of credibility in your own arguments.
Have you ever wondered what the terms "market sentiment", and "investor confidence" mean, and how they apply to the economy?
You are probably one of those who screaming that the failure of this Administration to appoint ministers within the first six months of office had zero effect on the Economy.
Carry go I do not engage with folks who would much rather be dishonest in discussions like this.

What exactly is dishonest about what i said?... Or could it be that i do not really know the meaning of the word dishonest'?

Can you point out one thing i said which is a lie?... I would love to hear it.


While you are right about social factors affecting investor confidence, when we talk of the Naira, the problem is more than 90% purely hinged on the drop in oil price and production levels. So making bold claims that social factors such as Buhari speech or non-appointment of ministers is MORE responsible for the Naira crash, that is rather laughable and I'm sure you yourself don't even believe what you say but you're just saying it anyway for politically sentimental reasons.

Meanwhile I said i get irked when people accuse Buhari of restricting forex which consequently led to Naira crash. I'm still yet to hear or read any robust explanation of an alternative action that could have been done by Buhari at the time to prevent our reserves from dropping to zero. Kindly go back and study that chart of our reserves and please tell me there was a miracle that could have been performed?

Buhari is the worst thing that has ever happened to Nigeria ..This man singlehandedly derail Nigeria from being an economic power house for the black race and used his poor leadership to entrench corruption deep in our moral fabric as a means of survival ..The day he was born should be regretted

[s]

obailala:

A huge pile of partisan crap. When more desperate attention is given to politicise the argument, you end up contradicting yourself and and rubbishing your own supposed intelligence.

I stopped paying attention to the rest of your writeup when you asserted that statements by buhari and fear of violence from Buhari is what led to the Naira devaluing to N199 and N210 to $1 and investors leaving Nigeria. Of course your beautiful nonsense narrative would sit very well with a lot of folk in your divide, so good job!

[/s]

Zombie rantings

ImadeUReadThis:
[s][/s]

Zombie rantings

Why dont you add the latest vocabulary to the list?.. I mean 'BMC'?

You just spewed the typical response expected whenever putrid lies and worthless analysis is called out.