If the Igbo ethnic people do leave the Nigerian Federation!

It would be a vindication of the victory of mass hysteria, hypocrisy, hate, ignorance, Igbo inferiority complex, media hype and shallow intellect over lucid logic.
It will be a first hand lesson for peeps in Nairaland regarding how pride, hate, poor leadership and mob ignorance (of ipob members) consigns whole innocent populations to misery and death akin to that of bokoharam in Northern Nigeria.
It is no secret that this absence of logical thinking had always been the bane of the African mind and intellect. It had even been inferred that this might account for the few great leaders among Africans.

Now to the question, how will the Igbo ethnic people leave the Nigerian Federation?
It depends on how it occurs. If ipob follows the UN route it will take 5 to 10 years to realize the Igbo nation and the process will follow a series of structured stages as was done in the Sudan case. This will however, depend on how much opposition (country support) ipob can bring to bear against the Nigerian argument at UN committee hearings. For example, a UN referendum as demanded by ipob cannot hold within 2 years even if Nigeria agrees to it as their will be discussions on funding, supervision, legitimacy under Nigerian constitution, etc

If the ipob were to follow the violent route, then it must be prepared to fight a longer and more brutal war than Ojukwu did (approximately 4 years plus). However, I do not think ipob has the balls for what Ojukwu did.
For reference, Ojukwu was among the finest military officers of his time. He had the utmost respect for his military peers but was aware of the limitations of the Nigerian army then. He took a great gamble on this limitations, a shot at greatness which he envisioned, but the odds were not in his favor. He also knew the price of failure, it will be thrice more difficult to repeat the same gamble unless if the Nigerian state weakens considerable which I do not foresee. Furthermore, the Biafra currency cannot and will never have the value it had in 1967 for lucid reasons: In 1967, part of Nigeria's national gold reserve (how many people know we have a gold reserve?) was domiciled in the eastern regional central bank and hence partly accounted for the Biafra currency value. After that experience (civil war), it is now centrally domiciled in one place.
Additionally, Ojukwu had seasoned technocrats running administration and finances compared to what is obtainable now. I do not foresee Okonjo Iweala and their likes rushing home to lead the economic teams in what may degenerate into a war zone. Ojukwu also had diplomatic and military presence, had military hardware, a substantially trained army and police to maintain order. Finally, Ojukwu offered alternative lucrative deals to IOC’s, after seizing the Niger delta areas, for support against Nigeria.

Furthermore, it is obvious the Niger Deltans will not follow the Igbo action for obvious reasons:
The Niger Deltans had not forgotten the servitude they faced under Igbo domination, during the civil war, regardless of what the current ipob propaganda says.
Nay, rather they will rather quietly observe and encourage the ipob madness to their advantage, because:
Ipob has not offered them anything better compared to the current existing situation under Nigeria.
They see a resource and power hungry ipob compared to the current amenable Federal government, which had opened a listening ear to what they want.
More federal allocation will be available for them to spend, more contracts, etc if ipob secedes
All federal appointments occupied by the Igbos automatically devolve to them.
They will take over all businesses and properties forfeited by the Igbos in their lands after they secede.
The Igbos access to the sea becomes a source of revenue as they can impose a mafia like port access control, which may be more lucrative than the current prevalent crime of kidnapping.
Finally, they will have the Igbos by the balls for the first time since the undocumented atrocities they committed against them during the civil war.

If the Igbo ethnic people leave the Nigerian Federation today
There will be an exodus of about 20 million people.
Up to 18 million Igbo foreigners will move from other parts of Nigeria into Igbo land.
Up to 2 million Nigerians will move from the five Igbo states to Nigerian soil.
All Igbos will require visa to visit anywhere in Nigeria.
The ipob propaganda machine targeted at dividing the west along religious fault lines in an effort to gain Christian support to stay in the western region rather than the north is obviously stupid. Note that even the ipob leader himself is not even a Christian.
The exodus will affect over 9 million Igbo youths: students, pupils, employed and unemployed. This includes university and secondary school students outside of Igbo land.
Most of the youths will be conscripted to farm, teach or join communist-like production outfits to sustain the about 40 million (estimated) people in the new Igbo nation.
The exodus from Nigeria will include businessmen, former government employees, teachers, doctors, factory workers, gala sellers, etc.
Igbo businesses and properties in Nigerian territory, regardless of ownership, may become forfeit against the existing debts by the Igbo states for which Nigeria stand surety
Properties and businesses worth billions will be mortgaged to Nigerian banks by the Igbo foreigners or hidden under secondary ownership schemes to evade forfeiture.
Property prices will drop in Nigeria as properties are sold at giveaway prices and large estates become empty.
Housing, security, health and social problems will skyrocket in Igbo land due to poor or an absence of critical infrastructure.
Nigeria will block and heavily tax everything going into or coming from igboland and may limit airspace permissions for flights.
Students from igbo land will require visa to enter Nigeria and pay international school fees.
No igbos will be employed or granted work visa anywhere in Nigeria for a very long time.
Food imports and exports from the Igbo nation will face extreme taxation (or restrictions) from Nigeria so as to make it too expensive compared to other foreign imports.
Forget ipob palm oil, it will be imported from Malaysia.
Forget ipob yams and cassava, the Benue and Nasarawa farmers will be smiling to the banks.
Food will be a problem in Igbo land and UN humanitarian aid may be the only lifeline as starvation sets in after only 8 months. That is if Nigeria does not block the UN aid provision in the first place.
There will be an internal struggle for domination and leadership as clans, villages and kingdoms try to assert their influence in Igbo the new Igbo nation. Ipob will be subsumed in the struggle for power and may cease to exist.
The person with the best-equipped militia will browbeat or assassinate opposition to install himself in power. So, a large proportion of the Igbo youths will be conscripted into rag tag armies, expendable pawns soon to be forgotten on the altar of selfish ambition. Over 500,000 of these youths will experience the horrors of violence, death, disease and hopelessness. A significant number will be scarred with psychological problems for life.
Billions of Naira in closed Igbo businesses will jolt the Nigerian economy. However, the teeming masses of unemployed youths are ready to jump into the vacuum of what may be the world’s biggest employment jamboree of about 10 million jobs within 2 years.
The Nigerian economy will jump-start and boast growth levels of 5% or more for five years or more.

If the ipob engages the Nigerian Federation in a war;
The Nigerian military will happily engage the ipob if they try to fight face to face and wantonly destroy to its hearts content as a lesson it was unable to teach the highly mobile bokoharam terrorists.
World politics still strongly favors a Nigerian military solution.
Putin has his hands full with the Middle East, Europe and the US tensions.
Trump presidency still wobbles and fumbles its way forward.
China has the Taiwan issue to contend with and will not interfere. Britain, France and Germany are also not interested in arming rebels or secessionist groups given the American experience in the Middle East and the cost involved.
The religious card will not work because more Christians will still live in the rest of Nigeria (50 million) compared to the 40 million in the ipob nation.
The rest of the world is fed up with providing funds and soldiers to be killed in quelling new conflicts.
Furthermore, the huge investments by oil companies in the Niger Delta were inked with the Nigerian Government which still legal has locus standi as long as a government called federal government of Nigeria exists.
The banks that gave loans to Nigeria will never stand by to watch all their money disappear. They will offer support openly or in secret to quell any conflict that goes against their interest.
Hence, world opinion will favor a quick resolution with little loss of life. After which, they can then leave the Nigerian government the difficult and expensive task of rebuilding instead of funding it.
Optimism about Israel intervention by Igbos is farfetched against world opinion which is barely in its favor right now. It may offer logistics quietly or train assassination teams for ipob.
The assassination of Buhari which ipob had contemplated may not even favor the Igbo nation as the rampaging call for revenge by the North will drown any call for negotiation. It will be 1967 all over again with ipob as Nzeogwu et al.

Any way you look at it. Its going to be a long bumpy ride for ipob and Igbo’s. They will need all the luck they can get. For the rest of us Nigerians I advise you say tearful goodbyes to your ipob/igbo friends, neighbors, and colleagues when they leave. They ignorantly follow a false prophet with false hopes to their deaths or a hell on earth. It is their choice unlike in 1967 when they were pushed to make the choice.

Disclaimer: Don’t take what I wrote up there too seriously. They are just probabilities.

Ok

All this long trash to expose your ignorance.

"Niger Delta Would Not Follow Igbo " ... that is where I stop reading.


You people have been analysing and analysing since 45 BC yet have been proving wrong...

You people IQ are obviously too low to comprehend.

This people below have come again with their stupid reasoning. ...op go get a job

Unity begging continues...How did the Igbos survive before 1914? If San Marino, a country of 398,000 can survive,living in peace and filfilling all their potentials, why not the great Igbos. Forget about population...Do you know the population of Lagos with its small land mass...?

TheArbiter:
Furthermore, it is obvious the Niger Deltans will not follow the Igbo action for obvious reasons:The Niger Deltans had not forgotten the servitude they faced under Igbo
domination, during the civil war, regardless of what the current ipob
propaganda says

What servitude is worse than what we face each day here in the region, We have the resources but it cannot be used to benefit our people, the hausa/yoruba oligarchy still persist and is funded with oil from our region... The federal civil service is flooded with under qualified northerners, the Niger Delta people do not even have a say in the NNPC, the armed forces is intentionally filled with hausa-fulani people and I dare say that what divides us is more than what unites us... And unfortunately the present government are really making matters worse, I can proudly say that any day anytime, I can call an Igbo man brother but not a hausa man...

There over 40 tribes in the Niger Delta, most of which have landed borders with Igbo land. I dont think anyone should speak for all 40 ethnic groups about how they feel about Igbos and Biafra. An Uhrobo mans perception of Biafra may not be that of an Efik man. For anyone to claim to speak for the entire minorities is stupid. These minorities have not had a fair deal in Nigeria anyway abd it is them that have taken up arms against the Nigeria government more than anyone else. People might be surprised that if faced with the choice of leaving with Igbo and staying in Nigeria, leaving with Igbos makes makes far more sense.

But assuming that Biafra turns out to be just about Igbos, the so called 5 SE states cannot be used as a template for referendum for 2 reasons.

1)The 5 SE states contains minorities such as the Igala of Anambra and the Idoma of Enugu. Those minorities cannot be forced to go with Igbos.

2) Igbo land is muh larger than 5 states. We have the Igbos of Benue or the Umueze- Okoha people who number over a million. There are Anioma elements in Delta and Igboid elements in Rivers.

State creation is not what makes a person Igbo


There are many advantages to Igbos being independent

1) We become sovereign and control our land.
2) Igbos will be removed from the constant battle of supremacy between the North and South
3)Igbo land starts to control their resources, human and natural. Enugu should control its coal, Ukwa should control its oil, onitsha should cobtrol its River port, Otu-ocha should control its Gas etc

4) Igbo land as a sovereign nation can now go across the world and sign trade deals and compete with others in the comitte of nation.

5) Life without freedom means nothing, Igbos will finally be free.

An indepedent Biafra makes far more sense than being part of the failed country called Nigeria.

@poster eyyaa. . sorry you didn't confuse any body

stev120:
@poster eyyaa. .
sorry you didn't confuse any body

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rOf0dojckhI

Another rant written under rusted brown roofs in oshogbo,nothing new

.lemme come and be going biko